Blyatskrieg

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EACLucifer
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Jul 26, 2022 10:49 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Jul 25, 2022 9:32 am
jimbob wrote:
Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:36 am
Looks like the Russians aren't bothering too much with fatigue life of their barrels.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 7329539073
The 2S7 is, in many ways, a weapon from a former age of warfare. Though commonly described as a howitzer, it isn't. It's a full length gun (56 calibre, in fact, which makes it more than eleven metres long), and it's in a calibre larger than almost anything else remaining in service. Using the older system of classifying artillery into field, medium and heavy/siege, it is one of the only types in the world that fits in the heavy/siege category (155mm is used in the way one would use a medium gun, while field guns are also getting rare, but the British L118/119 - now also in Ukrainian hands - is an example).

And one thing that was always the case with heavy artillery is short barrel life. We're talking hundreds of rounds, while modern 155mm barrels last for many thousands. It used to be the case that large guns had their barrels re-lined, meaning the replacement of the innermost part, including the rifling, which would involve boring the gun out and shrinking it onto a new liner. I don't know if 2S7s can be relined, or rely on entirely new tubes.

The forces contained by that barrel are colossal. It's got to accelerate a hundred kilograms of steel and high explosive to more than twice the speed of sound in the space of eleven metres. That means high pressures, and it's not just friction that is the issue, but the effect of the very hot gasses that drive the shell. As the rifling starts to wear, the projectile can start to wobble. If it wobbles too much, parts that weren't meant to drag along the rifling can end up doing so. All it takes is a small increase in the shell's reluctance to go along the barrel, and the pressure of all that propellant can easily overwhelm the barrel.

I can't imagine being near a 2S7 barrel explosion would have been good for the crew. It's a weapon so powerful that it has an alarm to warn people it is going to fire, because being anywhere near the muzzle end would expose the operators to dangerous levels of blast, and that's when it's functioning normally.

And one more thing to remember; the Ukrainian side has relied heavily on their own 2S7s, both for long range strike before HIMARS arrived, and for counter-battery fire. It excels at the latter, as it outranges every other artillery gun in the war, and hits hard enough to destroy armoured SPGs (there's footage of the effects of one firing against a pair of Russian Msta SPGs. Though several rounds are fired, it appears that only one round hit close enough to inflict serious damage, and that that one round knocked out both SPGs). Unfortunately, it is unlikely anyone assisting Ukraine can rustle up any more 203mm barrels. They are just too large to be made on equipment designed for making 155mm or smaller barrels, and gun barrels need to be turned on special lathes that need to be large enough, and likewise subjected to autofrettage, where the inner part of the gun is subject to such pressure it goes past its elastic limit, imparting useful stresses into the gun. The machinery for those operations won't be available for replacement 2S7 barrels. So Ukraine's 2S7s will probably have to retire at some point soon. They will be wearing out to the point they eventually will not be safe to fire, nor accurate enough to be useful. The west needs to recognise the need to replace that capability, which, given the western lack of 203mm, means accurate rocket artillery.
For an idea of the power involved in this system, here's a Ukrainian example firing. That chassis getting bounced by the recoil is that of a main battle tank. Just imagine for a moment what it would have been like as that Malka's eleven metre long barrel disintegrated.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Jul 26, 2022 9:42 pm

More hits apparently on the Antonivsky bridge. Hits apparently in two locations, suggestion it could be the railway bridge hit as well. Some social media posts saying bridge possibly destroyed, or a span gone, others contradicting that, apparently. One to keep an eye on for the morning. Russian Air Defence active, suggesting rockets rather than shells.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Jul 27, 2022 8:19 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Jul 26, 2022 9:42 pm
More hits apparently on the Antonivsky bridge. Hits apparently in two locations, suggestion it could be the railway bridge hit as well. Some social media posts saying bridge possibly destroyed, or a span gone, others contradicting that, apparently. One to keep an eye on for the morning. Russian Air Defence active, suggesting rockets rather than shells.
Still standing, just about, but I would not want to go up there, let alone take a vehicle there. Various Russian sources are talking about it being out of action, needing extensive repairs "after the war", and also mentioning damage to the nearby railway bridge.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Jul 27, 2022 10:28 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Jul 27, 2022 8:19 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Jul 26, 2022 9:42 pm
More hits apparently on the Antonivsky bridge. Hits apparently in two locations, suggestion it could be the railway bridge hit as well. Some social media posts saying bridge possibly destroyed, or a span gone, others contradicting that, apparently. One to keep an eye on for the morning. Russian Air Defence active, suggesting rockets rather than shells.
Still standing, just about, but I would not want to go up there, let alone take a vehicle there. Various Russian sources are talking about it being out of action, needing extensive repairs "after the war", and also mentioning damage to the nearby railway bridge.
Further bridge updates. The Russians put in place a ferry to replace the very heavily damaged and unusable Antonivsky bridge. The Ferry consisted of several pontoon sections and an amphibious tug. There are rumours that the ferry has now been blown up. THIS IS UNCONFIRMED AND SHOULD NOT BE REPEATED EXCEPT AS RUMOURS. However, if true, the ferry would have lasted even less time than Russia's adherence to the grain export deal.

There are thought to be about fifteen Russian battalion tactical groups and supporting elements on the west bank of the Dnipro. There are two rail crossings and two road crossings between Russian held areas on the west and east banks of that river. It's a big river, one of the great rivers of Europe, and about a kilometre wide at this point. Those bridges are as follows;

Antonivsky Road Bridge - out of action. Significant damage, craters not just through the deck but right through the longitudinals too. Out of action, perhaps forever, but certainly for the forseeable future. In addition, Russian sappers were observed operating there back when the first Ukrainian counterattack pushed the Russians back from Mykolaiv. It's to be assumed the bridge is already wired to blow, thus there was never much chance of the Ukrainians using it. People could probably cross on foot, but no vehicles.

Antonivsky Railway Bridge - status unclear, but reportedly hit last night at the same time the road bridge was.

Nova Kakhovka Dam - the remaining crossings are both here, as it is a road and rail crossing. Large craters observed through road surface, reportedly in the span over the lock. Repairs observed, but do not appear to be good quality. Would likely struggle with the weight of a truck, certainly with a tank or SPG.

This is potentially very significant news. The Russian positions west of the Dnipro in Kherson oblast are extremely vulnerable. They need extensive supplies, as there are somewhere in the vicinity of ten thousand troops on that bank, but only the aforementioned crossings. Even if they were to retreat, they would find it hard to evacuate their vehicles, and it is hard to see the situation getting much easier for them.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Thu Jul 28, 2022 7:11 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Jul 27, 2022 10:28 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Jul 27, 2022 8:19 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Jul 26, 2022 9:42 pm
More hits apparently on the Antonivsky bridge. Hits apparently in two locations, suggestion it could be the railway bridge hit as well. Some social media posts saying bridge possibly destroyed, or a span gone, others contradicting that, apparently. One to keep an eye on for the morning. Russian Air Defence active, suggesting rockets rather than shells.
Still standing, just about, but I would not want to go up there, let alone take a vehicle there. Various Russian sources are talking about it being out of action, needing extensive repairs "after the war", and also mentioning damage to the nearby railway bridge.
Further bridge updates. The Russians put in place a ferry to replace the very heavily damaged and unusable Antonivsky bridge. The Ferry consisted of several pontoon sections and an amphibious tug. There are rumours that the ferry has now been blown up. THIS IS UNCONFIRMED AND SHOULD NOT BE REPEATED EXCEPT AS RUMOURS. However, if true, the ferry would have lasted even less time than Russia's adherence to the grain export deal.

There are thought to be about fifteen Russian battalion tactical groups and supporting elements on the west bank of the Dnipro. There are two rail crossings and two road crossings between Russian held areas on the west and east banks of that river. It's a big river, one of the great rivers of Europe, and about a kilometre wide at this point. Those bridges are as follows;

Antonivsky Road Bridge - out of action. Significant damage, craters not just through the deck but right through the longitudinals too. Out of action, perhaps forever, but certainly for the forseeable future. In addition, Russian sappers were observed operating there back when the first Ukrainian counterattack pushed the Russians back from Mykolaiv. It's to be assumed the bridge is already wired to blow, thus there was never much chance of the Ukrainians using it. People could probably cross on foot, but no vehicles.

Antonivsky Railway Bridge - status unclear, but reportedly hit last night at the same time the road bridge was.

Nova Kakhovka Dam - the remaining crossings are both here, as it is a road and rail crossing. Large craters observed through road surface, reportedly in the span over the lock. Repairs observed, but do not appear to be good quality. Would likely struggle with the weight of a truck, certainly with a tank or SPG.

This is potentially very significant news. The Russian positions west of the Dnipro in Kherson oblast are extremely vulnerable. They need extensive supplies, as there are somewhere in the vicinity of ten thousand troops on that bank, but only the aforementioned crossings. Even if they were to retreat, they would find it hard to evacuate their vehicles, and it is hard to see the situation getting much easier for them.
That cannot be good for their morale. Knowing that they're not yet cut off but that the gate is shutting slowly and methodically and has closed to their vehicles. And that they could still personally escape on foot and are not getting sufficient supplies.

And any troops that do escape would be likely to be sent to fight with worse kit than they abandoned.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Jul 28, 2022 11:58 am

jimbob wrote:
Thu Jul 28, 2022 7:11 am
That cannot be good for their morale. Knowing that they're not yet cut off but that the gate is shutting slowly and methodically and has closed to their vehicles. And that they could still personally escape on foot and are not getting sufficient supplies.

And any troops that do escape would be likely to be sent to fight with worse kit than they abandoned.
Yes, and Ukraine's government is definitely playing it up in their communications. There is a significant psychological warfare aspect to this too.

This, meanwhile, is the state of the bridge at Daryivka.

Image

It was filmed from a car, as far as I can tell, but there's quite a bit of damage. Probably enough to cripple the bridge for anything heavier than a car. The Russians had a pontoon bridge on this site recently, but that seems to have been removed (presumably to reduce chances of it getting schwacked by an M31 rocket). There is a cable visible, though, and that's interesting to me. Possibly it could be to do with being able to set a pontoon up fast, but what it reminds me of most is the cables strung across the Seversky Donetsk during the counterattack in Severodonetsk. There, they were used to pull inflatable boats across to take supplies in and the wounded out - and later used for the final evacuation. These were supported by rafts for heavier equipment, after the Russians destroyed the bridge with guided shells from a 240mm siege mortar. That worked for a while in Severodonetsk as the Ukrainians were mostly using light infantry, including notably the International Legion, as the urban terrain of the evacuated city gave infantry with NLAWs a chance to fight against armoured vehicles. It's less viable for the Russians in the open country around Kherson.

The big unknown is the state of the railway bridges. Arestovych mentioned that the Russians are dependant on three bridges - the Antonivsky Rail Bridge, the Bridge at the Nova Kakhovka Dam, and the pontoon bridge on the Inhulets, that was where that cable is in the photograph above. He mentioned them laying wood down on the railway bridge, presumably to make a roadway. If the rail bridge is intact, it can take the weight of any vehicle of course, but it looks like it might only be one track, so it will be slow going. Destroying that bridge is presumably next on the agenda, though a steel girder truss bridge will be harder to destroy than a concrete road bridge. It sounds from this like they are still using the crudely repaired bridge across the dam, but how much it will support isn't clear. Rail connections could also be cut there by destroying the bridge across the Crimea Canal just south of the dam, without risking the dam. Arestovych isn't the most solid source, and also avoids revealing classified intel, but this looks like a reasonable assessment.

There's some talk that Ukraine is avoiding fully destroying the bridges to save them for later use. I doubt this is the case, as they are already mined by the Russians, meaning they'll be blown if Ukraine's on the verge of taking them. If only a single span is dropped, though, it might be possible to lay a Medium Girder Bridge or similar over the damaged span. I don't know if Russia have such modular bridges, but they are something the west could easily supply to Ukraine.

Russia appears to committing more forces to Kherson, and also possibly pulling them round Izium, so watch for possible Russian weakness there - they've lost a pontoon bridge there, and while there's debate if it was destroyed or abandoned, I think the satellite photo shows some remnants, indicating destroyed. The thing to remember with the supply situation with Kherson is it doesn't work in absolutes. Even if every bridge were cut, they'd get some supplies, but not enough, of course. As it stands, their supply situation is already enormously difficult, and adding troops adds to that supply burden. If Ukraine were able to almost completely isolate the troops on the west bank of the Dnipro, they would be in very great danger. Even an impregnable position like Azovstal couldn't hold once food, medicine and ammunition ran out.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Jul 28, 2022 4:31 pm

Not a source I'm familiar with, but scrolling back on their timeline there's no red flags and their other reports all correspond to things I'm aware of.
Multiple Russian outlets are reporting that Representatives of the United Russia party have left #Kherson. The official reason given was that they could no longer carry out humanitarian aid.
It has been variously noted that journalists and other non-combatants f.cking off out of Hostomel and other occupied areas preceded the Russian collapse north of Kyiv.

There, they did a good job getting a lot of their units out intact, though there were exceptions - examples beeing Malaya Rohan and Trostyanets - and between those localised heavy defeats and more general losses, they suffered relatively extensive losses, even if they did exceed expectations in pulling off the tricky process of disengaging.

It is not impossible for Russia to properly restore their supply lines to the west bank of the Dnipro, and they are not fully cut at present.


That said, Ukraine have absolutely demonstrated how vulnerable those supply lines are, even if they are restored in the short term. Anything that can be repaired can be hit again. Hitting long range rocket launchers is hellishly difficult. Even with their overwhelming air supremacy, coalition Scud hunting in the first Gulf War didn't much hinder Saddam's Scud launches. Russia will be well aware that GMLRS can hit anything they put in place to get supplies across the Dnipro, and there's not much they can do about that.

The Russians thus have a difficult choice to make. Do they cut their losses and accept they will lose some units and much prestige by withdrawing now, or risk suffering crippling losses and handing Ukraine enormous leverage if they don't withdraw their forces before Ukraine finishes off the bridges? In the north in March, the Russian decision to abandon their positions was preceded by a Ukrainian counter-offensive that, while limited in scope, seriously threatened their vulnerable supply lines from Belarus.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:31 pm

Germany now reportedly (it was an official Bundeswehr account, so pretty solid, but sometimes things go odd with German aid) sending armoured bridgelayers to Ukraine. For those not familiar with machines of this nature, they consist of a tank hull modified to carry a bridge, which can be moved into position generally without the crew getting out. The specs quoted by the Bundeswehr talk about spanning a twenty metre gap with a forty five tonne load bridge. It also appears to be a horizontal launch type, rather than a folding type, which means that deployment is less obvious from any distance, and appears to be based on the Leopard 1 hull.

Germany really is stepping up compared to previous behaviour, but still needs to improve in some areas. Notably, they need to stop f.cking about with ideas relating to sending equipment to countries like Greece in exchange for small amounts of antiquated kit to Ukraine and just send kit directly to Ukraine, especially as they don't seem to have done much consulting with Greece about this deal. In addition, where equipment is already held by industry, they should not hinder its transfer, as they have with Leopard 1s, especially now multiple Leopard 1 chassis vehicles are going. Speaking of such vehicles, the first Gepards are arriving; it will be interesting to see how they perform. Theoretically, they ought to be effective drone killers, but also effective radars to warn MANPADS teams as well.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jul 29, 2022 5:38 pm

Re: Vysokopillya. Still no signs of full encirclement, but credible sources talking about liberation of Ol'hyne. That takes Russia's Vysokopillya garrison from 2/3ds encircled to 4/5ths encircled.

There is evidence of a pontoon bridge next to the Antonivsky Railway Bridge. This is unlikely to be there long. It could be the Russians remove it and hide the sections, as they have been doing with pontoon sections for a while, or if they leave it in place it will have a bit of an incident with a guided 155 or a GMLRS rocket. If the Russians can keep it intact by hiding it most of the time, this obviously radically cuts their supply capacity.

Evidence of VDV movements south of the Dnipro, could be heading to the west bank. These could be reinforcements intended to secure the position on the west bank of the Dnipro, but they could also be intended to cover a retreat. VDV are designed to be fast moving, and a lot of their vehicles are amphibious.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jul 30, 2022 9:40 am

Unknown munition type destroys Russian vehicle

There's a few things we can discern by looking at it. Firstly, it attacks with an Explosively Formed Projectile. It attacks the top armour, which is thinnest and most vulnerable. Superficially, it looks a bit like the submunitions from SMArt155, which is an artillery shell that deploys a pair of submunitions that attack in this fashion. However, these float down on small parachutes. This munition flies horizontally and with apparent purpose. Our next possibility is a top-attack mine - basically a launcher for such a projectile that attacks passing vehicles. But the munition's trajectory is all wrong for one of those, and it comes in from too far away.

My speculation is that this could be the elusive Phoenix Ghost loitering munition. It's extremely new - not even in US service yet, though it was being developed for them when it was sent to Ukraine - and there's been basically no information about it at all. The only thing we know is that after the first batch, a second, much larger batch, was sent. That didn't happen with Switchblade 300, which was reportedly underwhelming, so we can infer that Phoenix Ghost was successful. Fitting the submunitions from BONUS, SMArt155 or SADArm to a drone would provide a potentially very capable beyond LOS anti-armour weapon. Perhaps that's how Phoenix Ghost works?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jul 30, 2022 10:39 am

Bridge watch!

Image

Antonivsky Railway Bridge. Note large chunk taken out from the approach span to the right of the main spans. This is repairable, but until it is repaired, Russian forces north/west of the Dnipro and west of the Inhulets have no permanent bridges and are utterly dependant on pontoon bridges and ferries. Russian forces north/west of the Dnipro and east of the Inhulets still have the bridge over the Nova Kakhovka dam, though that is damaged.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:25 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 5:38 pm
There is evidence of a pontoon bridge next to the Antonivsky Railway Bridge. This is unlikely to be there long.
DefMon3 has an alternative explanation that I think fits facts better. We've seen evidence of the ferry - two pictures of it - and we've seen nothing of a bridge. I expect we would at this point. Especially as we have footage of the railway bridge, where the pontoon bridge is meant to be. A pontoon bridge would be a hundred segments at least to span the Dnipro at this point.

DefMon3's theory is that synthetic aperture radar was actually picking up the submerged ruins of the old bridge. As you can imagine, the Dnipro crossings did not survive the second world war, and the new bridge was put in in the fifties.

It doesn't rule out a bridge, but if there is one, it's coming and going very quickly. While that has been observed with the bridge over the Inhulets, the Inhulets is much smaller, and high quality imagery reveals they are hiding the entire pontoon bridge just downstream. It's a lot easier to do that with a river the size of the Inhulets rather than one the size of the lower Dnipro. If they are moving a bridge about, I'd expect it to be caught via satellite imagery sooner or later.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:47 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:25 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Jul 29, 2022 5:38 pm
There is evidence of a pontoon bridge next to the Antonivsky Railway Bridge. This is unlikely to be there long.
DefMon3 has an alternative explanation that I think fits facts better. We've seen evidence of the ferry - two pictures of it - and we've seen nothing of a bridge. I expect we would at this point. Especially as we have footage of the railway bridge, where the pontoon bridge is meant to be. A pontoon bridge would be a hundred segments at least to span the Dnipro at this point.

DefMon3's theory is that synthetic aperture radar was actually picking up the submerged ruins of the old bridge. As you can imagine, the Dnipro crossings did not survive the second world war, and the new bridge was put in in the fifties.

It doesn't rule out a bridge, but if there is one, it's coming and going very quickly. While that has been observed with the bridge over the Inhulets, the Inhulets is much smaller, and high quality imagery reveals they are hiding the entire pontoon bridge just downstream. It's a lot easier to do that with a river the size of the Inhulets rather than one the size of the lower Dnipro. If they are moving a bridge about, I'd expect it to be caught via satellite imagery sooner or later.
Just to add an alternative theory is that these are corner reflectors placed alongside the bridge. If so, then they are a decoy intended to lure radar guided missiles away from the bridge.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:41 pm

You can't polish a turd...
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin Y » Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:46 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:41 pm
Interesting article on the use of EW
Fascinating. Thanks for the link.

(How cunning: Using civilian TV and radio transmitters as your "radar" transmitter and passively listening out for reflections off aircraft. It's so obvious I can't now believe I never thought of it. It's like, you don't need to give your position away by using a searchlight if there's already someone else's giant lighthouse that's lighting up the sky for you.)

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jul 30, 2022 9:25 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:41 pm
Interesting article on the use of EW
The latest JDAMs have a home-on-jam capability that would - if they are integrated on Ukrainian planes or planes capable of carrying them are supplied - prove quite unpleasant for Russian GPS jamming systems.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jul 30, 2022 9:30 pm

There's a lot of Russian equipment moving into Crimea. A massive amount, reportedly. They've also sent substantial amounts of VDV to Kherson. Arestovych warning of Russian offensive in about a week's time. Now their communications can still be cut, the supply situation is still very poor for them and they appear to be depleting other frontlines, but it's still a real concern. Every day ATACMS is not sent, it creates further risks for Ukraine. M31 rockets cut Ukrainian deaths to just 20% of what they had been earlier in the Donbas battle. Why delay? Why hold back?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Martin Y » Sat Jul 30, 2022 9:48 pm

Sorry, VDV?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Jul 30, 2022 10:10 pm

It sounds extremely concerning, to be honest. I feel we're edging closer to the international "Of course you know, this means war" moment. (Of course, it's been war for Ukrainians for some time already.)
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Jul 30, 2022 10:12 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 9:48 pm
Sorry, VDV?
I'm pretty sure it's these guys https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraini ... ult_Forces (the phrase vdv kherson was the secret to a successful Google here)
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jul 30, 2022 10:30 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 10:12 pm
Martin Y wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 9:48 pm
Sorry, VDV?
I'm pretty sure it's these guys https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraini ... ult_Forces (the phrase vdv kherson was the secret to a successful Google here)
Close, but no cigar. Was referring to the Russian ones. Some might say it really stands for Very Dead Vatniks. They are one of Russia's more capable units, though lightly equipped. There's been a lot of rot talked about them being glorified riot police, and while they have been used to suppress demonstrations, they are in reality a quick reaction force. Their vehicles are lighter so they can be moved by air - Russia lacks the strategic airlift capability that NATO countries grant the alliance so light vehicles matter - and a lot of their vehicles are amphibious.

However, they've been used inappropriately, and this has resulted in them suffering very high casualties. Despite this, Russia's lack of other effective forces has resulted in them being used very heavily. They are the troops that seized Hostomel very early in the war, and they simply weren't equipped to counter Ukraine's conventional (including tanks) counterattack. Generally Rusia uses the VDV to spearhead attacks as they are better at fighting than the average Russian infantryman. It could well be they are planning a counterattack in Kherson, perhaps even thinking of threatening Mykolaiv again. The Russians have certainly realised that the southern theatre is very significant. Of course, that might not be the worst thing for Ukraine - if they go all out on the bridges (which they actually haven't, to be honest; Enough GMLRS rockets basically guarantees a bridge can be destroyed as it can effectively be sawn in half with multiple strikes as M31 is just that accurate) then that could leave a lot of Russians stranded. Having troops trapped on the wrong side of a large water obstacle from their supply positions tends to be very bad. For example, the Israeli counterattack across the Suez canal trapped the Egyptian Third Army on the east bank of the Suez canal was the war winning operation in the southern theatre of the Yom Kippur War.

This is why the VDV might play a different role - if conventional units were to retreat, the VDV could hold out to cover their retreat without risk of being cut off as their lighter, amphibious vehicles could swim to safety across the Dnipro. However, witnesses report hundreds of vehicles heading across the now presumably repaired bridge over the Nova Kakhovka dam. Now this might be catching up on supply backlog, but it's also possibly the Russians are planning an offensive of their own. I do think it is possible for Ukraine to decisively sever that bridge above the lock without risking the integrity of the dam. In addition, there's the issue of the Inhulets - and it's not clear how much supply the Russians can bring across the Inhulets on a pontoon bridge they keep hiding. The permanent bridges over the Dnipro downstream of the Inhulets are all damaged to the point vehicles cannot cross.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jul 30, 2022 10:42 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Jul 30, 2022 10:10 pm
It sounds extremely concerning, to be honest. I feel we're edging closer to the international "Of course you know, this means war" moment. (Of course, it's been war for Ukrainians for some time already.)
The important things to remember are these;

1) Russian leadership doesn't want a nuclear war. Nobody wins a nuclear war. They've shown no signs of even thinking about taking a tactical nuke out of storage. If they do, western intelligence, which has been very good at determining Russian plans and very open about what they have learned, will go utterly apeshit.

2) Russia, in a conventional war, does not win. Currently they are fighting Ukraine. They are struggling to win. Do they want to invite a bunch of stronger, better equipped nations to come and join in on Ukraine's side? Especially as all of the relevant nations but for Moldova come as a set. If Russia, say, targets Poland to try and limit supplies to Ukraine - directly or by deterrent - they don't just add Poland's quite considerable military to their list of enemy belligerents, but also France, Germany, Italy, the UK, the USA, and so on. Russia have deployed the vast majority (circa 80%) of their ground forces fighting power to Ukraine.

If you think HIMARS's M31s did a lot of damage to them - and they did, they radically cut down Russia's ability to use artillery - then imagine what would happen if they went up against NATO - it wouldn't just be HIMARS hitting out to eighty km, it would be cruise missiles and long ranged air-launched standoff munitions and anti-radar munitions to specifically knock out their air defences. Sure, air defences might knock down a few, but many NATO forces nowadays have stealthy missiles, and even for those that aren't, the American campaign against Gaddafi opened with a salvo of more than a hundred tomahawks. On top of that it would be salvos of Brimstones each hunting their own targets amongst Russia's armour. Helicopters with effective fire and forget munitions that reliably and accurately hit their targets, and don't rely on lobbing unguided rockets in the general direction of the enemy. Then it would be NATO's ground troops. Thousands of tanks that are more capable than Russia's tanks, tougher, and more accurate shooting especially on the move. They'd be backed up by rather more infantry than Russia can muster, and they'd be well trained professionals, not short term contractniks.

Russia don't want to invite other nations to join Ukraine's side as belligerents, and that's what attacking anyone other than Ukraine would do. It is, of course, a hellishly stressful situation, even for outsiders. There is risk of conflict in other parts of the world as a knockon effect of food prices. But it almost certainly isn't going to WWIII - not unless Russia are allowed to win and build on that.

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EACLucifer
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jul 30, 2022 10:50 pm

One more thing; Russia's been pulling troops away from other areas to send them to Crimea and Kherson. Watch the other fronts, especially Izium, as, after a long period of stalemate, Ukrainian forces have actually advanced in a few places.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Allo V Psycho » Sun Jul 31, 2022 6:15 am

Celebrations of Russian Navy Day in Sevastopol suffer setback and cancellation after Ukrainian drone strikes the Navy HQ...

https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status ... 9175989254

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Mon Aug 01, 2022 8:57 pm

Realistically, how much depletion of their total armed forces can Russia withstand before they have to withdraw?
They loved each other and believed they loved mankind, they fought each other and believed they fought the world.

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