Blyatskrieg

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
Post Reply
User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 5434
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Aug 01, 2022 9:30 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 8:57 pm
Realistically, how much depletion of their total armed forces can Russia withstand before they have to withdraw?
That’s a good question which is very difficult to answer.

Factors would probably include:

- Most importantly, how would withdrawal affect Putin’s rule?

- How much usable or repairable equipment does Russia have in storage?

- How many men can be persuaded or coerced to join the army?

- What key missions can the Russian armed forces no longer perform? (They clearly don’t fear an attack by NATO but they may be unable to prevent internal violence or to intervene abroad such as in Syria).

- Will the army leadership seek to depose Putin?

- Will the war lead to mass opposition?

- To what extent does Putin have accurate information on any of the above?

Ultimately it all comes down to Putin and it’s very hard to know how he will make the decision.

User avatar
Bird on a Fire
Princess POW
Posts: 9306
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2019 5:05 pm
Location: Portugal

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:49 pm

I feel like we've been hearing they're gonna run out of men and weapons since the first week, but the conveyor belt keeps churning.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 5434
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 02, 2022 3:49 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:49 pm
I feel like we've been hearing they're gonna run out of men and weapons since the first week, but the conveyor belt keeps churning.
Quality has been getting lower though.

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 5434
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 02, 2022 8:37 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 3:49 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:49 pm
I feel like we've been hearing they're gonna run out of men and weapons since the first week, but the conveyor belt keeps churning.
Quality has been getting lower though.
Longer answer.

Russia potentially has tens of thousands of old soviet military vehicles and artillery, and vast stores of ammunition. But they are going to be 30-70 years old, and a large proportion will be inoperable. They still have great destructive potential, but clearly inferior to modern equipment supplied to Ukraine.

Similarly, Russia potentially has a pool of millions of men who have completed military service. The government is offering high wages (for Russia) so they have been able to get recruits so far. But someone who was a conscript a decade or two ago isn't going to be a very effective combatant.

Russia can probably continue fighting for a long time. But as its highly trained troops and experienced officers are attrited that fighting will more and more look like sending in cannon fodder.

User avatar
EACLucifer
After Pie
Posts: 2092
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: Behind you

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 02, 2022 8:58 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:49 pm
I feel like we've been hearing they're gonna run out of men and weapons since the first week, but the conveyor belt keeps churning.
In the first week they were conducting lightning fast penetrations of the frontline and advancing hundreds of kilometres in days. Kherson and Melitopol were captured in those opening advances, and Mariupol surrounded.

Since April, they've been achieving First World War speeds of advance. They had to pull out from the north because they'd already lost too many troops (and didn't really have enough to start with) to sustain that operation. When they shifted focus to the Donbas, Ukraine was able to push them back from Kharkiv almost to the border, and from the gates of Mykolaiv to the outer suburbs of Kherson. Now, to counter Ukrainian moves on Kherson, they've had to pull troops from north of Slovyansk as they don't have enough to cover all their fronts even on the defensive. Now the Ukrainian armed forces have pushed them back from a few villages on that front, too. These are signs that attrition is taking its toll.

And they are running low on troops, but it's even worse than it appears at first glance; Russia relies on existing units to train troops. As those units suffer enormous losses, they lose the people who would train the new recruits. Even they try to mobilise, they'll find it rather difficult to actually train conscripts as they come in, and Putin is clearly scared of the backlash to full mobilisation.

As for vehicle losses, Russia's already using far fewer BMP-2s and BMP-3s. Instead of these powerfully armed and well armoured infantry fighting vehicles, Russian troops are going into battle in old, lightly armoured and very lightly armed MT-LBs, and even things like flatbed trucks (and on at least one occasion a dump truck) when they aren't on the front lines. Their documented tank losses are over nine hundred (a third of their pre-war tank fleet, not counting deep reserves), but the methods for documenting those losses only capture between about 77% and maybe as low as 50% or 60% of actual losses. The 77% figure was calculated by comparing The List to captured documents showing the Fourth Guards Tank Division's T-80U losses (as only they use that model), but that was in a period in which the Fourth Guards Tank Division was getting pushed out of northern Ukraine and Ukrainian troops were advancing, meaning they found and photographed the wrecks.

In short, Russia's already suffering degraded performance from losing experienced troops - with units like the semi-elite VDV suffering some of the worst casualties - and this trend will continue. Nothing in warfare is absolute, it won't be a simple, single event as they run out, but a series of developments, including not being able to maintain forces on all fronts, not being able to maintain their shelling, and substitution of front-line equipment like BMP-2s and BMP-3s with MT-LBs and BMP-1s, and substituting T-80Us with less advanced T80-BVs, and the latest variants of T-72s with 1970s A and B variants, or substitution of late cold war MBTs with ancient things like T-62s.

User avatar
TopBadger
Snowbonk
Posts: 383
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:33 pm
Location: Halfway up

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:11 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 3:49 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:49 pm
I feel like we've been hearing they're gonna run out of men and weapons since the first week, but the conveyor belt keeps churning.
Quality has been getting lower though.
"Quantity has a quality all of its own" - or words to that effect are often attributed to Stalin / Marx. Seems Russian thinking hasn't evolved much beyond sheer weight of numbers being the deciding factor.

But they are running down their capacity to fight... and for all the figures on Russian losses I have little idea how Ukraine is fairing in terms of their losses and no idea how much more Russia can realistically draw upon - Like others I'm guessing its not much though given they're already protecting newer equipment by fielding old equipment.

That Ukraine intends to counter attack and regain its territory indicates this will drag for some time unless the Russians unexpectedly capitulate. That Russian equipment keeps getting older and Ukrainian equipment keeps getting newer cannot be good for Russian morale, so perhaps a Russian capitulation isn't an unrealistic scenario, particularly as the war goes into winter and the climate becomes as hostile as the weaponry.
You can't polish a turd...
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html

User avatar
Woodchopper
Light of Blast
Posts: 5434
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:24 am

TopBadger wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:11 am
But they are running down their capacity to fight... and for all the figures on Russian losses I have little idea how Ukraine is fairing in terms of their losses and no idea how much more Russia can realistically draw upon - Like others I'm guessing its not much though given they're already protecting newer equipment by fielding old equipment.
I've been arguing over the months that Russia still has quite a lot of equipment and manpower to draw upon. But the effectiveness of its armed forces will decline as it uses older and older machines and personnel.

Russia isn't going to have to stop fighting due to an absolute lack of manpower or equipment. But is is going to find it harder to do anything more than defend the territory it has taken.

User avatar
jimbob
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4041
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:17 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:11 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 3:49 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:49 pm
I feel like we've been hearing they're gonna run out of men and weapons since the first week, but the conveyor belt keeps churning.
Quality has been getting lower though.
"Quantity has a quality all of its own" - or words to that effect are often attributed to Stalin / Marx. Seems Russian thinking hasn't evolved much beyond sheer weight of numbers being the deciding factor.

But they are running down their capacity to fight... and for all the figures on Russian losses I have little idea how Ukraine is fairing in terms of their losses and no idea how much more Russia can realistically draw upon - Like others I'm guessing its not much though given they're already protecting newer equipment by fielding old equipment.

That Ukraine intends to counter attack and regain its territory indicates this will drag for some time unless the Russians unexpectedly capitulate. That Russian equipment keeps getting older and Ukrainian equipment keeps getting newer cannot be good for Russian morale, so perhaps a Russian capitulation isn't an unrealistic scenario, particularly as the war goes into winter and the climate becomes as hostile as the weaponry.
The last paragraph.

Imagine how you'd feel if you have been in a BTG that's lost a lot of its modern kit and you then get issued with kit that you know is older than the stuff you l had previously found inadequate.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
TopBadger
Snowbonk
Posts: 383
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:33 pm
Location: Halfway up

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:30 pm

jimbob wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:17 pm

The last paragraph.

Imagine how you'd feel if you have been in a BTG that's lost a lot of its modern kit and you then get issued with kit that you know is older than the stuff you l had previously found inadequate.
Quite... then add to that the knowledge that you're not even in some noble fight against Nazism of any sort and that civilians are being targeted indiscriminately.

The only will left is to survive, and your best odds for that are to surrender or desert. Any rational Russian soldier near the front should be looking for a stick and some white cloth.
You can't polish a turd...
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html

User avatar
EACLucifer
After Pie
Posts: 2092
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: Behind you

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:32 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:24 am
TopBadger wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:11 am
But they are running down their capacity to fight... and for all the figures on Russian losses I have little idea how Ukraine is fairing in terms of their losses and no idea how much more Russia can realistically draw upon - Like others I'm guessing its not much though given they're already protecting newer equipment by fielding old equipment.
I've been arguing over the months that Russia still has quite a lot of equipment and manpower to draw upon. But the effectiveness of its armed forces will decline as it uses older and older machines and personnel.

Russia isn't going to have to stop fighting due to an absolute lack of manpower or equipment. But is is going to find it harder to do anything more than defend the territory it has taken.
How many T-62s have been seen on the frontlines? Not many is the answer. Because T-62s are very outdated. Yet they sent in 62s, and the only reason to still be operating them is because the newer tanks are less serviceable - 62s, after all, don't have much in the way of electronics to steal.

And if Russia are forced to use them in combat, they'll die faster. They don't need Javelins or NLAWs to take them out. The common and ubiquitous RPG-7 would do the trick, as would tank fire at any range, and the old AT-guns still used in Ukraine. Even the S-60s used on some technicals stand a chance.

We can compare the MT-LB to the BMP-2 and BMP-3 as well. The MT-LB wasn't even designed as an APC - it's really a lightly armoured artillery tractor - and it has only about 40% of the armour of the proper IFVs. That means that heavy machine guns and all sorts of autocannon can pierce its armour on any facing. It also carries a machine gun for armament - the BMP-3 carries a low-pressure 100mm shell firing gun that can also shoot ATGMs coaxially with a 30mm autocannon also coaxially with a machine gun, and it's got a couple more machine guns in the hull front.

This decline in equipment standard will result in more Russian losses on the front lines. They will find it harder to push Ukrainian units back. And this is the easily quantifiable bit. The losses in skilled, trained personnel are probably going to hit even harder.

And Russia's already looking at being outnumbered two to one in infantry. If current trends continue, they'll be looking at parity in tanks in the coming months.

User avatar
EACLucifer
After Pie
Posts: 2092
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: Behind you

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:34 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:30 pm
jimbob wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:17 pm

The last paragraph.

Imagine how you'd feel if you have been in a BTG that's lost a lot of its modern kit and you then get issued with kit that you know is older than the stuff you l had previously found inadequate.
Quite... then add to that the knowledge that you're not even in some noble fight against Nazism of any sort and that civilians are being targeted indiscriminately.

The only will left is to survive, and your best odds for that are to surrender or desert. Any rational Russian soldier near the front should be looking for a stick and some white cloth.
Also add to that the effects of racism. Most of these troops aren't ethnic Russians, and know they are treated as second class. For every Muscovite killed in Ukraine, there's been a couple of hundred Tuvans or Buryats. Those are areas where independence is popular with some. Being treated as cannon fodder might encourage others to take that view too. That may also be the case with the Chechens, at least those who are real soldiers, not Kadyrov's dogs.

User avatar
jimbob
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4041
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Aug 02, 2022 3:20 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:34 pm
TopBadger wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:30 pm
jimbob wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:17 pm

The last paragraph.

Imagine how you'd feel if you have been in a BTG that's lost a lot of its modern kit and you then get issued with kit that you know is older than the stuff you l had previously found inadequate.
Quite... then add to that the knowledge that you're not even in some noble fight against Nazism of any sort and that civilians are being targeted indiscriminately.

The only will left is to survive, and your best odds for that are to surrender or desert. Any rational Russian soldier near the front should be looking for a stick and some white cloth.
Also add to that the effects of racism. Most of these troops aren't ethnic Russians, and know they are treated as second class. For every Muscovite killed in Ukraine, there's been a couple of hundred Tuvans or Buryats. Those are areas where independence is popular with some. Being treated as cannon fodder might encourage others to take that view too. That may also be the case with the Chechens, at least those who are real soldiers, not Kadyrov's dogs.
Yup, there were several parts of the former USSR that ended up in Russia, but which probably didn't want to. And this might precipitate independence. A lot of bitter veterans being added to the mix.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

Imrael
Fuzzable
Posts: 262
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:59 am

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Imrael » Tue Aug 02, 2022 4:01 pm

How many T-62s have been seen on the frontlines
I think they''re using them as short range artillery and for logistic support? Half remembered report from a few weeks ago.

User avatar
EACLucifer
After Pie
Posts: 2092
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: Behind you

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 02, 2022 4:04 pm

Imrael wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 4:01 pm
How many T-62s have been seen on the frontlines
I think they''re using them as short range artillery and for logistic support? Half remembered report from a few weeks ago.
They seem to mostly be using them as rear area security and indeed as short range artillery - basically armoured SPGs but with poor gun elevation and less accuracy due to the smoothbore gun that was intended to deliver very high velocities for direct fire and not disrupt copper jet formation with HEAT ammunition.

User avatar
jimbob
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4041
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:26 pm

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... 9268232192
1/ What do Russian soldiers think of their commanders in Ukraine? This fourth 🧵 in a series looks at soldiers' personal accounts and intercepted calls, as translated by
@wartranslated
, and what they say about their leaders' deficiencies and Russia's tactics in the Ukraine war
Thread on the morale of the Russian troops.

It is not good for Russia
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
jimbob
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4041
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Wed Aug 03, 2022 8:44 pm

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/8 ... ian-attack

Russia lost two munitions trains yesterday.

But only one to HIMARS

The other seems to have been due to overzealous pyrotechnics for a smokescreen to hide the activity from reconnaissance and a subsequent HIMARS attack.

Maybe the radar reflectors on the bridges is trying for a similar effect for SAR reconnaissance?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
EACLucifer
After Pie
Posts: 2092
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: Behind you

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Aug 04, 2022 8:12 am

A few days ago, Ukraine reported hitting a large train of troops, equipment and ammunition as it came from Crimea towards Kherson. It now appears this claim was true. I think this may be the most secondaries I have ever seen in a strike.

In bridge watch news, more strikes in the direction of the Antonivsky Railway Bridge. Whether they were hitting the bridge, the pontoon-ferry, the vehicles queueing for the ferry or something else entirely is not clear at this point.

User avatar
jimbob
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4041
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:03 pm

I'm trying to find some of the propaganda videos produced by the Russian puppet militias .

Remember that these are propaganda videos, so painting them in the best light.

In one, if they had the training and equipment of a US GI squad of 1944/45, their squad would have been more effective. The helmets providing some protection and not trying to shoot their rifles by holding them at arms length above their heads.

See also this comment on a Russian propaganda video, where at least some of the cannon fodder have helmets.


https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1554 ... Q_a51PkIEg
Def Mon
@DefMon3
·
Aug 2
This one is a good one, ill translate it from Kremlinese:
"We send our stupid ass cannon fodder out in the open, 600m from enemy positions, without cover or protection, to bait Ukrainian artillery to reveal their positions." Video below. #nolivesmatte
It can't be good for morale to be thought of as cannon fodder
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
jimbob
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4041
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:48 am

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/sta ... Ri18vTctBg

Part of a thread, and pretty plausible.
The Ukrainian offensive should not be conceived of as an offensive in a modern combined arms manor. Its basically a form of accelerated attritional warfare. What they have done is tried to tempt the Russians into sending forces into an area where its easier for Ukr to do this
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
EACLucifer
After Pie
Posts: 2092
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:49 am
Location: Behind you

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:52 pm

jimbob wrote:
Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:48 am
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/sta ... Ri18vTctBg

Part of a thread, and pretty plausible.
The Ukrainian offensive should not be conceived of as an offensive in a modern combined arms manor. Its basically a form of accelerated attritional warfare. What they have done is tried to tempt the Russians into sending forces into an area where its easier for Ukr to do this
This, implemented using the kind of "Corrosion" approach advocated by retired Australian general Mick Ryan (@warinthefuture, for those who want to look for themselves) at the tactical and operational level potentially represent the best approach for Ukraine, at least for a first (arguably second) major counteroffensive. More or less trapping a large force in right-bank Kherson Oblast allows them to be chipped away at, and makes reinforcing them rather harder. Not as hard as at Snake Island, but then we know how that went, and there'll be a lot more needing reinforcement.

In other news, Ukraine have apparently received and used the highly capable anti-radiation missile AGM-88 HARM There's speculation about a ground launcher being used and that is certainly possible, but it's also worth noting that HARM, which is designed to home in on and destroy enemy radars, is apparently easier to integrate onto new launching platforms than many munitions, and could potentially even be helicopter launched, if an ungainly data-link setup can't be avoided.

Also, I've had a bit of a health crash over the last few days in part due to the disruption of suddenly acquiring an unexpected cat. Nothing serious, I'll be alright and so will the furry little lad, but I might not be providing as much commentary as usual.

User avatar
jimbob
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4041
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Sun Aug 07, 2022 5:14 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:52 pm
jimbob wrote:
Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:48 am
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/sta ... Ri18vTctBg

Part of a thread, and pretty plausible.
The Ukrainian offensive should not be conceived of as an offensive in a modern combined arms manor. Its basically a form of accelerated attritional warfare. What they have done is tried to tempt the Russians into sending forces into an area where its easier for Ukr to do this
This, implemented using the kind of "Corrosion" approach advocated by retired Australian general Mick Ryan (@warinthefuture, for those who want to look for themselves) at the tactical and operational level potentially represent the best approach for Ukraine, at least for a first (arguably second) major counteroffensive. More or less trapping a large force in right-bank Kherson Oblast allows them to be chipped away at, and makes reinforcing them rather harder. Not as hard as at Snake Island, but then we know how that went, and there'll be a lot more needing reinforcement.

In other news, Ukraine have apparently received and used the highly capable anti-radiation missile AGM-88 HARM There's speculation about a ground launcher being used and that is certainly possible, but it's also worth noting that HARM, which is designed to home in on and destroy enemy radars, is apparently easier to integrate onto new launching platforms than many munitions, and could potentially even be helicopter launched, if an ungainly data-link setup can't be avoided.

Also, I've had a bit of a health crash over the last few days in part due to the disruption of suddenly acquiring an unexpected cat. Nothing serious, I'll be alright and so will the furry little lad, but I might not be providing as much commentary as usual.
Take care of yourself. And your new companion.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
sTeamTraen
After Pie
Posts: 2422
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:24 pm
Location: Palma de Mallorca, Spain

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by sTeamTraen » Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:44 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Sun Aug 07, 2022 3:52 pm
In other news, Ukraine have apparently received and used the highly capable anti-radiation missile AGM-88 HARM There's speculation about a ground launcher being used and that is certainly possible, but it's also worth noting that HARM, which is designed to home in on and destroy enemy radars, is apparently easier to integrate onto new launching platforms than many munitions, and could potentially even be helicopter launched, if an ungainly data-link setup can't be avoided.
HARM has to be the best-named missile in this war. It underpromises and overdelivers. Hellfire and Brimstone are just too corny. Honourable mention for the Ukrainian Tochka[-U] which means "full stop" or "basta".
Something something hammer something something nail

User avatar
jimbob
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4041
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Mon Aug 08, 2022 8:21 am

Seems accurate

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/statu ... BYd_lPJutw
Darth Putin
@DarthPutinKGB
Day 166 of my 3 day war. Have re-enforced Kherson, so Ukraine blew up bridges that supply them, creating a self-governing POW camp.

I remain a master strategist.
8:27 AM · Aug 8, 2022·Twitter for Android
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

User avatar
JQH
After Pie
Posts: 1865
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 3:30 pm
Location: Sar Flandan

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by JQH » Mon Aug 08, 2022 9:20 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:34 pm

...
Most of these troops aren't ethnic Russians, and know they are treated as second class. For every Muscovite killed in Ukraine, there's been a couple of hundred Tuvans or Buryats. Those are areas where independence is popular with some. Being treated as cannon fodder might encourage others to take that view too. That may also be the case with the Chechens, at least those who are real soldiers, not Kadyrov's dogs.
So the Russian Army is in effect training future rebels? Survivors will have combat experience and will have learned a thing or two about resisting invading/occupying forces. I really don't think Putin's thought this through.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

Fintan O'Toole

User avatar
jimbob
Stummy Beige
Posts: 4041
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Mon Aug 08, 2022 9:23 am

JQH wrote:
Mon Aug 08, 2022 9:20 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 12:34 pm

...
Most of these troops aren't ethnic Russians, and know they are treated as second class. For every Muscovite killed in Ukraine, there's been a couple of hundred Tuvans or Buryats. Those are areas where independence is popular with some. Being treated as cannon fodder might encourage others to take that view too. That may also be the case with the Chechens, at least those who are real soldiers, not Kadyrov's dogs.
So the Russian Army is in effect training future rebels? Survivors will have combat experience and will have learned a thing or two about resisting invading/occupying forces. I really don't think Putin's thought this through.
That's why I think that Putin might complete the breakup of the Russian Empire that started with the collapse of the USSR.

Though, "training" is possibly stretching it a bit.

There are separatist movements in Russia.

Chechnya might be interesting too.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

Post Reply