Blyatskrieg

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FlammableFlower
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by FlammableFlower » Tue May 17, 2022 9:29 am

Russian attempt at mimicking the Ukrainian drone bombers

tl;dr - it's cheap quadcopter dropping a grenade in a china mug and is about as accurate as you might imagine. The idea being that with the pin removed, but the lever kept down in the mug, it will activate when the mug breaks on impact.

Whereas, the Ukrainian drone octocopters can carry 4 kg mortar bombs that have been modified with 3D printed fins to stabilise them and make them very accurate (i.e. dropping one through a stolen vehicle's sunroof).

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by sTeamTraen » Tue May 17, 2022 11:54 am

FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 9:29 am
Russian attempt at mimicking the Ukrainian drone bombers

tl;dr - it's cheap quadcopter dropping a grenade in a china mug and is about as accurate as you might imagine. The idea being that with the pin removed, but the lever kept down in the mug, it will activate when the mug breaks on impact.

Whereas, the Ukrainian drone octocopters can carry 4 kg mortar bombs that have been modified with 3D printed fins to stabilise them and make them very accurate (i.e. dropping one through a stolen vehicle's sunroof).
The Ukrainians are apparently also using quadcopters with considerably smaller munitions.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue May 17, 2022 12:14 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 9:29 am
Russian attempt at mimicking the Ukrainian drone bombers

tl;dr - it's cheap quadcopter dropping a grenade in a china mug and is about as accurate as you might imagine. The idea being that with the pin removed, but the lever kept down in the mug, it will activate when the mug breaks on impact.

Whereas, the Ukrainian drone octocopters can carry 4 kg mortar bombs that have been modified with 3D printed fins to stabilise them and make them very accurate (i.e. dropping one through a stolen vehicle's sunroof).
Mortar bombs usually have fins attached already, as most mortars are smoothbore. The main use of 3d printed fins has been to turn obsolete shaped charge antitank grenades into a very dangerous weapon, as while they've not got the penetration to take on the frontal armour of a modern tank, they can easily pierce the thin top armour.

The most absurd approach I've seen evidence of the Russians using is dropping grenades from fixed wing drones. A multicopter can hover over the target - with a fixed wing drone, there's significant forward motion to account for, something which has long been understood to need well designed bombsights, yet a surveillance drone that's been bodged into a drone bomber won't have any.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Tue May 17, 2022 2:59 pm

Grenades in mugs? Which side was supposed to be fighting as an improvised guerilla force right now?

Here's a Ukraine one with some fish thing.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 3998464002

In the replies there's a Russian one in a plastic cup.

It's all so mad. This was supposed to be massed tank divisions blitzkreiging while cruise missiles fly overhead. Instead it's drones from Argos and bits of string. I've spent half my life worrying about a military force that's basically at the fart-in-your-general-direction level of threat.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Tue May 17, 2022 6:23 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 2:59 pm
Grenades in mugs? Which side was supposed to be fighting as an improvised guerilla force right now?

Here's a Ukraine one with some fish thing.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 3998464002

In the replies there's a Russian one in a plastic cup.

It's all so mad. This was supposed to be massed tank divisions blitzkreiging while cruise missiles fly overhead. Instead it's drones from Argos and bits of string. I've spent half my life worrying about a military force that's basically at the fart-in-your-general-direction level of threat.
Someone tried to convince me once, around the time of the Pentium chip being a fairly new thing, that their cousin’s mate’s wife’s uncle had a super secret job in the military and they were using three generations of Pentium more advanced than we could get. I never believed him, but it was based on the narrative that the military spend loads of money on advanced tech. Sometimes they do, but oftentimes they really don’t.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Tue May 17, 2022 7:03 pm

Grumble wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 6:23 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 2:59 pm
Grenades in mugs? Which side was supposed to be fighting as an improvised guerilla force right now?

Here's a Ukraine one with some fish thing.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 3998464002

In the replies there's a Russian one in a plastic cup.

It's all so mad. This was supposed to be massed tank divisions blitzkreiging while cruise missiles fly overhead. Instead it's drones from Argos and bits of string. I've spent half my life worrying about a military force that's basically at the fart-in-your-general-direction level of threat.
Someone tried to convince me once, around the time of the Pentium chip being a fairly new thing, that their cousin’s mate’s wife’s uncle had a super secret job in the military and they were using three generations of Pentium more advanced than we could get. I never believed him, but it was based on the narrative that the military spend loads of money on advanced tech. Sometimes they do, but oftentimes they really don’t.
Very frequently they really really don't. Military procurement cycles are measured in decades. The RAF's Eurofighters were designed in the late 1980s and 1990s and will keep flying for another 10-15 years. Civilian technology is developed far faster.

Areas where military technology is far more advanced are where there isn't significant civilian demand, for example for very quiet submarines or aircraft that are difficult to detect using radar.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Tue May 17, 2022 7:06 pm

Grumble wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 6:23 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue May 17, 2022 2:59 pm
Grenades in mugs? Which side was supposed to be fighting as an improvised guerilla force right now?

Here's a Ukraine one with some fish thing.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 3998464002

In the replies there's a Russian one in a plastic cup.

It's all so mad. This was supposed to be massed tank divisions blitzkreiging while cruise missiles fly overhead. Instead it's drones from Argos and bits of string. I've spent half my life worrying about a military force that's basically at the fart-in-your-general-direction level of threat.
Someone tried to convince me once, around the time of the Pentium chip being a fairly new thing, that their cousin’s mate’s wife’s uncle had a super secret job in the military and they were using three generations of Pentium more advanced than we could get. I never believed him, but it was based on the narrative that the military spend loads of money on advanced tech. Sometimes they do, but oftentimes they really don’t.
Given the length of time of military procurement, it often is several generations behind.

Saying that, a late colleague was heavily involved in the design of the first microprocessor to be made in the UK, which was military. He had the rubylith layers for either that, or the first automotive one (for a Rover) over his desk.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed May 18, 2022 5:40 pm

Reports not looking too good today regarding the area round Sloviansk, where vNeil Hauer is reporting heavy artillery exchanges around the outskirts. In particular, Lyman, one of the remaining Ukrainian positions on the left bank of the Siverskyi Donets, looks to be threatened.

Just a little bit to the east, Ukrainian sappers destroyed a bridge over the Borova, a left bank tributary of the Siverskyi Donets; this makes it harder to go through the now occupied settlement of Rubizhne* in order to flank or encircle one of the most significant left bank Ukrainian positions - the city of Severodonetsk.

Hopefully this Russian advance can be stalled. A small scale advance like this does not contradict assessments that Russia is nearly at a culmination point for the offensive, in fact offensives like this can hasten that as they are costly in personel and materiel, but it is dangerous for Ukrainian defenders and civilians in the areas affected.

The forces attacking are, in part, dependent on supplies coming down from the north - ultimately from Belgorod - and while there are other routes, they are less direct and most of them are on poorer roads. A partial reduction in supply does not take a formation out of the fight, but it does make it more difficult to operate, especially in offensive operations.


*The one near Severodonetsk. There are several other Rubizhnes

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Thu May 19, 2022 8:01 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 5:40 pm
Reports not looking too good today regarding the area round Sloviansk, where vNeil Hauer is reporting heavy artillery exchanges around the outskirts. In particular, Lyman, one of the remaining Ukrainian positions on the left bank of the Siverskyi Donets, looks to be threatened.

Just a little bit to the east, Ukrainian sappers destroyed a bridge over the Borova, a left bank tributary of the Siverskyi Donets; this makes it harder to go through the now occupied settlement of Rubizhne* in order to flank or encircle one of the most significant left bank Ukrainian positions - the city of Severodonetsk.

Hopefully this Russian advance can be stalled. A small scale advance like this does not contradict assessments that Russia is nearly at a culmination point for the offensive, in fact offensives like this can hasten that as they are costly in personel and materiel, but it is dangerous for Ukrainian defenders and civilians in the areas affected.

The forces attacking are, in part, dependent on supplies coming down from the north - ultimately from Belgorod - and while there are other routes, they are less direct and most of them are on poorer roads. A partial reduction in supply does not take a formation out of the fight, but it does make it more difficult to operate, especially in offensive operations.


*The one near Severodonetsk. There are several other Rubizhnes
Yes, Russia is still able to concentrate enough forces to be able to put pressure upon Ukraine. They appear to be trying to encircle the Ukrainian defenders of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. But compared to the ambitions of late February, these are very limited goals. Even if the cities can be surrounded and taken, it may be at too high a cost for Russia.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu May 19, 2022 10:01 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu May 19, 2022 8:01 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed May 18, 2022 5:40 pm
Reports not looking too good today regarding the area round Sloviansk, where vNeil Hauer is reporting heavy artillery exchanges around the outskirts. In particular, Lyman, one of the remaining Ukrainian positions on the left bank of the Siverskyi Donets, looks to be threatened.

Just a little bit to the east, Ukrainian sappers destroyed a bridge over the Borova, a left bank tributary of the Siverskyi Donets; this makes it harder to go through the now occupied settlement of Rubizhne* in order to flank or encircle one of the most significant left bank Ukrainian positions - the city of Severodonetsk.

Hopefully this Russian advance can be stalled. A small scale advance like this does not contradict assessments that Russia is nearly at a culmination point for the offensive, in fact offensives like this can hasten that as they are costly in personel and materiel, but it is dangerous for Ukrainian defenders and civilians in the areas affected.

The forces attacking are, in part, dependent on supplies coming down from the north - ultimately from Belgorod - and while there are other routes, they are less direct and most of them are on poorer roads. A partial reduction in supply does not take a formation out of the fight, but it does make it more difficult to operate, especially in offensive operations.


*The one near Severodonetsk. There are several other Rubizhnes
Yes, Russia is still able to concentrate enough forces to be able to put pressure upon Ukraine. They appear to be trying to encircle the Ukrainian defenders of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. But compared to the ambitions of late February, these are very limited goals. Even if the cities can be surrounded and taken, it may be at too high a cost for Russia.
It represents a shift in their primary focus from the north of the Kramatorsk salient to the south, likely due to the defeat at Bilohorivka. The main thrust of this attack is through Popasna, and recent assessments suggested their logistics in that area left much to be desired. Whether they can sustain this attack remains to be seen.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Fri May 20, 2022 2:45 am

Good thread on Russian tank storage and maintenance: https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/ ... oyrF4YKthw

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Fri May 20, 2022 6:44 am

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/5 ... ussian-BTG

Ukraine Update: A Russian volunteer's story lays waste to the myth of the Russian "BTG"
Russians know the town as Dolgen'koye, and it’s currently blocking Russia’s southern advance. Just a few kilometers south of the town, a rail line still feeds supplies to Sloviansk (and Kramatorsk). Its value is obvious. More ambitiously, any attempt to encircle those Ukrainian strongholds at Slovyansk and Kramatorsk run through Dovhenke. The town had a pre-war population of 850, so we’re talking a few farmhouses and sheds. This is not an urban stronghold.

Meanwhile, estimates put Russia’s presence in the Izyum front at 22 BTGs, Russia’s largest concentration of firepower in the entire country.
Discussions about how depleted some of these BTGs are (TLDR - Very)
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Fri May 20, 2022 9:49 am

jimbob wrote:
Fri May 20, 2022 6:44 am
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/5 ... ussian-BTG

Ukraine Update: A Russian volunteer's story lays waste to the myth of the Russian "BTG"
Russians know the town as Dolgen'koye, and it’s currently blocking Russia’s southern advance. Just a few kilometers south of the town, a rail line still feeds supplies to Sloviansk (and Kramatorsk). Its value is obvious. More ambitiously, any attempt to encircle those Ukrainian strongholds at Slovyansk and Kramatorsk run through Dovhenke. The town had a pre-war population of 850, so we’re talking a few farmhouses and sheds. This is not an urban stronghold.

Meanwhile, estimates put Russia’s presence in the Izyum front at 22 BTGs, Russia’s largest concentration of firepower in the entire country.
Discussions about how depleted some of these BTGs are (TLDR - Very)
Wow - sections pretending to be companies... that is insane.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 20, 2022 6:02 pm

Russia just used an expensive, high tech, long range missile to destroy a beach toilet in Odesa.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri May 20, 2022 8:33 pm

Pffft, I'll destroy a beach toilet with nothing more than an afternoon on the Sagres and some of the fresh shellfish locals like to rake up from around the outfall pipes.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Fri May 20, 2022 11:06 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri May 20, 2022 8:33 pm
Pffft, I'll destroy a beach with nothing more than an afternoon on the Sagres and some of the fresh shellfish locals like to rake up from around the outfall pipes.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun May 22, 2022 7:58 am

Russians destroyed a bridge between Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. This suggests they are more interested in reducing Ukrainian supplies into Severodonetsk to aid them in attacking that city - on the left bank of the Siverskyi Donets - than they are on seizing the bridge and using it to cross the Siverskyi Donets, despite their repeated failures at bridging that river with pontoon bridges.

I've seen some reports saying it was destroyed by artillery. Perhaps relatedly, a 2S4 Tyulpan self-propelled siege mortar was active in that area. This 240mm artillery piece was featured on Russian media, and - perhaps relatedly - destroyed by counterbattery fire soon afterwards. The 2S4 is an extremely powerful weapon, and uses shells weighing ~130kg, including laser-guided projectiles, however it has a short range, rendering it vulnerable to counter-battery fire.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon May 23, 2022 8:08 am

Thread: https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/stat ... MbA2e47xPQ

Summary: it looks like the second phase of the war is coming to an end and Russia is nearing the limit of its offensive capability. The next phase will be defensive as troops from both sides shelter in trenches and fire artillery at each other (but that doesn't rule out local attacks as we are seeing at the moment). Pretty much what the Donbas has been from 2014-2021. This phase will last until one or other side is able to build up enough offensive capability to launch widespread large scale attacks.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon May 23, 2022 1:03 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 8:08 am
Thread: https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/stat ... MbA2e47xPQ

Summary: it looks like the second phase of the war is coming to an end and Russia is nearing the limit of its offensive capability. The next phase will be defensive as troops from both sides shelter in trenches and fire artillery at each other (but that doesn't rule out local attacks as we are seeing at the moment). Pretty much what the Donbas has been from 2014-2021. This phase will last until one or other side is able to build up enough offensive capability to launch widespread large scale attacks.
Yes, that was the culmination I was referring to earlier. A stalemate period would likely be more intense in terms of artillery fire than the Donbas war. The quicker western heavy arms reach Ukraine, and the greater the quantity, the quicker Ukraine can exploit its better morale and greater ability to mobilise and go on the offensive. By now, a just outcome in this war - and in the long run a lower human cost - depend on Ukrainian counter-offensive capabilities, either to drive the Russians out directly, or to force their hand in negotiations. Ukraine can put a million soldiers into the war, potentially, but they need arms.

In other news, it looks like the British artillery commitment is L118 Light Guns, a small, light 105mm piece with a range of ~20km. It's not comparable to the M777 or other 155mm pieces, nor to the 152mm or 203mm former Warsaw Pact pieces in use by both sides, nor is it meant to be. It weighs less than two tonnes, less than half the weight of the very light for its class M777, and not much more than half the weight of the most comparable piece already in use, the D30. It matches the D30 for range with enhanced range ammunition and beats it with conventional ammunition, albeit with a slightly lighter shell, and also outranges all of the mortars in use.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by lpm » Mon May 23, 2022 1:26 pm

Russia was stupid and rushed battered units from Kyiv round to the Donbas, feeding them in piecemeal.

Presumably Ukraine won't make the same mistake.

How long will it take for resting, reforming and retraining Ukraine's veteran units? How long for training up of new troops/reservists?

Is there any rush for Ukraine now? It's an age old tactic to let the enemy weaken from hunger and disease, these days attrition and poor moral, before attacking. Are we looking at waiting a few weeks before going on the offensive, or a few months, or a year?
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon May 23, 2022 2:48 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 1:26 pm
Russia was stupid and rushed battered units from Kyiv round to the Donbas, feeding them in piecemeal.

Presumably Ukraine won't make the same mistake.

How long will it take for resting, reforming and retraining Ukraine's veteran units? How long for training up of new troops/reservists?

Is there any rush for Ukraine now? It's an age old tactic to let the enemy weaken from hunger and disease, these days attrition and poor moral, before attacking. Are we looking at waiting a few weeks before going on the offensive, or a few months, or a year?
Yes, there is a rush for Ukraine - their citizens, the cause for which they are fighting, are under Russian occupation, subject to risk of torture, murder, rape and kidnapping until they are liberated. Ukraine must balance the need to liberate people as soon as possible with the military realities, and do so in a manner that ensures the Russians are beaten permanently.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive is unlikely to be a big, sweeping movement of armoured spearheads, at least not if the west doesn't send several hundred tanks and supporting equipment. More likely is a series of raids and small offensives designed to further crumble Russian positions until they collapse. Ukraine has avoided fighting head on, force against force, for a reason. They increasingly have numbers, but still lack some of the heavy equipment they need. One way for the Ukrainians to win is if the west continue to send more advanced artillery. Coupled with drones of varying kinds, Ukraine can impose a heavy price on the Russians just to hold the ground they have taken. Even with the Siverskyi Donets as the frontline, the Russians still have a long frontline to defend, and they still don't have the infantry they need to do that.

As of writing, it's hard to work out the exact Russian intentions in the Donbas in the short term. They are attacking Lyman at the moment, and have been attacking Severodonetsk. That suggests a goal of consolidating their hold on the left bank of the Siverskyi Donets, a naturally defensible line. However they've also reportedly had another bridging attempt thwarted, this time at Serebryanka, just along the river from Bilohorivka, where they were defeated so resoundingly. That suggests more aggressive aims. Their breakout from the high ground round Popasna seems to have largely stalled, but it's still not clear how far they got, and whether they are still advancing.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon May 23, 2022 7:01 pm

Lots of new arms to Ukraine announced. Czechs to send Mi24 "Hind" attack helicopters, and Denmark to send Harpoon missiles. Harpoon doesn't give Ukraine something they don't already have - it's roughly in the same class as Neptune - but Neptune numbers are likely to be very low and irreplaceable.

In addition, the CAESAR self-propelled guns sent by France after diverting them from Morocco, appear to now be in service in Ukraine.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Grumble » Mon May 23, 2022 7:04 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 7:01 pm
Lots of new arms to Ukraine announced. Czechs to send Mi24 "Hind" attack helicopters, and Denmark to send Harpoon missiles. Harpoon doesn't give Ukraine something they don't already have - it's roughly in the same class as Neptune - but Neptune numbers are likely to be very low and irreplaceable.

In addition, the CAESAR self-propelled guns sent by France after diverting them from Morocco, appear to now be in service in Ukraine.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon May 23, 2022 7:36 pm

Grumble wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 7:04 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 7:01 pm
Lots of new arms to Ukraine announced. Czechs to send Mi24 "Hind" attack helicopters, and Denmark to send Harpoon missiles. Harpoon doesn't give Ukraine something they don't already have - it's roughly in the same class as Neptune - but Neptune numbers are likely to be very low and irreplaceable.

In addition, the CAESAR self-propelled guns sent by France after diverting them from Morocco, appear to now be in service in Ukraine.
They should rebrand them Czar
Like almost all modern military hardware, it's an acronym, and a bit less tortured than some. It basically stands for truck with a gun on it.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Gfamily » Mon May 23, 2022 7:58 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 7:36 pm
Grumble wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 7:04 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Mon May 23, 2022 7:01 pm
Lots of new arms to Ukraine announced. Czechs to send Mi24 "Hind" attack helicopters, and Denmark to send Harpoon missiles. Harpoon doesn't give Ukraine something they don't already have - it's roughly in the same class as Neptune - but Neptune numbers are likely to be very low and irreplaceable.

In addition, the CAESAR self-propelled guns sent by France after diverting them from Morocco, appear to now be in service in Ukraine.
They should rebrand them Czar
Like almost all modern military hardware, it's an acronym, and a bit less tortured than some. It basically stands for truck with a gun on it.
Could call it TSAR, The Shooty and Roary
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