Blyatskrieg

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TopBadger
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Fri Jun 17, 2022 12:41 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Jun 17, 2022 10:51 am
could the launcher from a HIMARS go onto a different truck bed? Or, given that six guided rockets really is an enormous amount of firepower, would it be possible to mount one or two launch tubes for M30/31 onto a much smaller vehicle?
The former is a possibility, the latter would appear to need a redesign. The original MLRS was 2 pods of 6 tubes, so not joining up two pods of 6 is simple enough to do without redesigning much. Splitting a pod of 6 down is more work - not hard - but likely more effort than just sending another 20 out of the 220 US systems.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jun 17, 2022 2:03 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Fri Jun 17, 2022 12:41 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Jun 17, 2022 10:51 am
could the launcher from a HIMARS go onto a different truck bed? Or, given that six guided rockets really is an enormous amount of firepower, would it be possible to mount one or two launch tubes for M30/31 onto a much smaller vehicle?
The former is a possibility, the latter would appear to need a redesign. The original MLRS was 2 pods of 6 tubes, so not joining up two pods of 6 is simple enough to do without redesigning much. Splitting a pod of 6 down is more work - not hard - but likely more effort than just sending another 20 out of the 220 US systems.
I agree that by far the best approach would be to send more the many available pre-existing launchers.

I was specifically thinking of what could be done if that proves unworkable/things go on long enough that they suffer attritition. There's nothing particularly special about the pod save that it houses six launch tubes (or one for ATACMS and I think it will be two for PSM). I was suggesting that if new launchers have to be made, a launcher module consisting of one or two launching tubes could be designed to bolt onto any suitable 4x4 chassis, and that it would be a lot less work than building new HIMARS - and as for M270, it's been out of production for decades. It might even be work that could be done largely by engineering firms not familiar with arms production.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Jun 17, 2022 2:54 pm

The Russian Army, with the advantages of artillery that we keep hearing about, has advanced ten miles since the start of breakout from Popasna, which started a month ago.

That's only three miles further than the British advances on the Somme in 1916.

So lets drop this idea that things won't be useful if they can't get there fast, or if they take time to train the crews. It's been almost four months since the full scale invasion. The Russians aren't currently going anywhere fast. Getting things there fast matters, but if that can't be done, it's better to get them there slow than not at all.

I know people are saying the Ukraine requests for equipment are large - and they are, perhaps larger than they necessarily need - but they aren't by any stretch impossibly large. If that demand includes what's already been sent, Europe could meet the target for tanks without a single tank coming over from America, and without taking a single tank out of service in the armed forces of any donor nation.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:44 am

Seeing more and more footage of Ukrainian warplanes conducting operations, but they seem to mostly be armed with unguided rockets. Any chance western aid could cover some JDAMs?

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:57 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:44 am
Seeing more and more footage of Ukrainian warplanes conducting operations, but they seem to mostly be armed with unguided rockets. Any chance western aid could cover some JDAMs?
As far as I know JDAMs are only compatible with some US aircraft (eg not with F35s) and not with aircraft produced by European NATO members (eg Eurofighter, Tornado). So I assume that it may be difficult integrating them with Ukranian aircraft.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:06 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:57 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 7:44 am
Seeing more and more footage of Ukrainian warplanes conducting operations, but they seem to mostly be armed with unguided rockets. Any chance western aid could cover some JDAMs?
As far as I know JDAMs are only compatible with some US aircraft (eg not with F35s) and not with aircraft produced by European NATO members (eg Eurofighter, Tornado). So I assume that it may be difficult integrating them with Ukranian aircraft.
They can reportedly be programmed prior to takeoff.

And there's been four months to get it sorted. That's enough time to do urgent integration work.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:29 am

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... nt-june-19
Key Takeaways
  • Concentrated Russian artillery power paired with likely understrength infantry units remains insufficient to enable Russian advances within Severodonetsk.
  • Russian forces continued to prepare to advance on Slovyansk from southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman.
  • Russian forces are focusing on strengthening defensive positions along the Southern Axis due to recent successful Ukrainian counterattacks along the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.
  • Successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the Zaporizhia area are forcing Russian forces to rush reinforcements to this weakened sector of the front line.
  • Russian forces are likely conducting false-flag artillery attacks against Russian-held territory to dissuade Ukrainian sentiment and encourage the mobilization of proxy forces.
The last isn't very surprising given past actions
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by causan_dux » Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:07 pm

jimbob wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:29 am
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... nt-june-19
Key Takeaways
  • Concentrated Russian artillery power paired with likely understrength infantry units remains insufficient to enable Russian advances within Severodonetsk.
  • Russian forces continued to prepare to advance on Slovyansk from southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman.
  • Russian forces are focusing on strengthening defensive positions along the Southern Axis due to recent successful Ukrainian counterattacks along the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.
  • Successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the Zaporizhia area are forcing Russian forces to rush reinforcements to this weakened sector of the front line.
  • Russian forces are likely conducting false-flag artillery attacks against Russian-held territory to dissuade Ukrainian sentiment and encourage the mobilization of proxy forces.
The last isn't very surprising given past actions
Each of those "Key Takeaways" has a paragraph associated with it.

The one associated with the last reads:

"Open-source Twitter accounts confirmed ISW’s previous assessment that artillery attacks against Donetsk City were likely conducted from within Russian-held territory, refuting accusations made by Russian authorities that blamed Ukrainian troops for the attacks.[19]"

[19] https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status ... 1165771778

But, from that very link:
Tweet 72 of the thread:
"Conclusion:
In this case it is our assumption that this shelling was highly likely done by the Ukrainian military."

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by sTeamTraen » Mon Jun 20, 2022 1:16 pm

Several things (mostly "Russian assets quite a way from the front line exploding") seem to be pointing to the possible arrival of HIMARS and/or M270 systems.

On that note, this is an interesting piece about the logistical challenges of keeping those systems running. As the author says, "Amazon has pre-conditioned people into thinking Ukraine could just order up whatever, and hey, there it is three days later with free shipping!", and IABMCTT.
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Jun 21, 2022 12:45 am

sTeamTraen wrote:
Mon Jun 20, 2022 1:16 pm
Several things (mostly "Russian assets quite a way from the front line exploding") seem to be pointing to the possible arrival of HIMARS and/or M270 systems.

On that note, this is an interesting piece about the logistical challenges of keeping those systems running. As the author says, "Amazon has pre-conditioned people into thinking Ukraine could just order up whatever, and hey, there it is three days later with free shipping!", and IABMCTT.
Possibly, but Ukraine has ex-Soviet Uragan and Smerch long range heavy MLRS, Vilkha, a very modern GMLRS upgrade of Smerch which is probably only available in very small numbers, and Tochka-U short range ballistic missiles.

They also have 2S7 Pion guns, with a range of nearly 60km with extended range ammunition.

From Western supplies, Polish-supplied Krabs and French-supplied CAESARs outrange other 155mm and all 152mm artillery systems.

It would be surprising if M142 HIMARS or M270 MLRS had seen much action yet, though the various reports of attacks on Snake Island in the early hours of 20/06/2022 suggest some form of rocket artillery was used - if the M142s the Ukrainians finished training on last week entered the country from Romania, they could stop to launch a salvo at Snake Island on their way to the Kherson, Kharkiv or Donbas fronts.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by bjn » Tue Jun 21, 2022 5:37 pm

The first Panzerhaubitze 2000s have arrived in Ukraine.

Very capable 155mm SP howitzers with a range from 30km to 67km, depending on the type of rounds being fired. Hopefully put to good use very soon.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Jun 22, 2022 3:25 am

bjn wrote:
Tue Jun 21, 2022 5:37 pm
The first Panzerhaubitze 2000s have arrived in Ukraine.

Very capable 155mm SP howitzers with a range from 30km to 67km, depending on the type of rounds being fired. Hopefully put to good use very soon.
PzH2000s, Krabs and CAESARs. Frontline modern equipment. The former's arriving now, the latter two have already proven very succesful in service.

And if they can master a PzH2000 or a Krab - both tracked vehicles with all that entails for maintenance and complicated computers etc onboard, then they can master any tank, too.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:09 am

A Ukrainian loitering munition strikes a Russian oil refinery 150km behind the front line.

Looks like a recon UAV converted into a loitering munition, it clearly did quite a bit of damage. To even the odds on the battlefield, Ukraine needs to hit - and is hitting - Russian logistics.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Jun 23, 2022 2:22 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:09 am
A Ukrainian loitering munition strikes a Russian oil refinery 150km behind the front line.

Looks like a recon UAV converted into a loitering munition, it clearly did quite a bit of damage. To even the odds on the battlefield, Ukraine needs to hit - and is hitting - Russian logistics.
There's a lot of things exploding well behind the lines at the moment. Ammunition storage in Krasny Luch and Nova Kakhova, and reports of explosions and fire in occupied Skadovsk. These are just the ones I can remember off the top of my head, there are others too, and they are a long way behind the frontline.

Worth keeping an eye on.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:56 pm

Comprehensive summary of the situation: https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/ ... UREc23h2Pw

You'll need to use Twiter's translate function as its in Russian.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Jun 26, 2022 2:36 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:56 pm
Comprehensive summary of the situation: https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/ ... UREc23h2Pw

You'll need to use Twiter's translate function as its in Russian.
A fair bit of that's been mentioned before, especially the use of artillery to compensate other shortcomings. That, though, is an approach with its own inherent weaknesses, as was shown with the counter-attack in Severodonetsk, which Russians thought they had captured weeks ago. Though ZSU has now finally withdrawn from Severodonetsk, it forced the Russians to fight a grinding urban battle in the largely evacuated city, where artillery could not be brought to bear easily due to the close proximity of the combatants, imposing heavy costs for the capture, and delaying the Russians for a number of weeks.

That delay is likely to be significant, as Ukraine is still gathering its strength, especially in terms of western artillery. Russia cannot count on an unchallenged artillery superiority indefinitely, as western weaponry - both artillery guns like the M777 and CAESAR, Krab and PzH2000 systems that are longer ranged and more advanced than the vast majority of Russian equipment, and now HIMARS (and M270 on the way), which are part of a family of weapons specifically designed to neutralise Russian advantages in artillery.

The Russian advances that have occurred have been very slow, and so far there doesn't seem to be any evidence of the sort of collapse we saw in places like Trostyanets even when they have largely encircled positions, like with Zolote. They have achieved so little despite their advantage in long range fires, and cannot rely on that advantage lasting forever.

In short, grinding attritional warfare and bite and hold tactics do avoid catastrophes like the retreat from Kyiv (at least when not trying to cross rivers), but they mean the gains achieved are comparatively small for the effort expended. Aside from a very small pocket around Zolote which the Ukrainians appear to have withdrawn from to avoid encirclement, the Russians have had to fight for every piece of ground they took, rather than earning ground by encircling it and rendering defensive positions untenable. They are already so short of manpower they are reduced to this rather than more effective operational approaches, and so short on AFVs they are having to pull antiquated mid-cold-war tanks from storage, their artillery is working very hard and does not have an infinite supply of shells, nor replacement barrels.

That they were able to advance after throwing everything at the Donbas is not unexpected. They have not achieved any major strategic victory, and have not broken the fighting power of the Ukrainian armed forces, which is likely to increase as more volunteers are trained and more equipment arrives from the the west. They remain beatable.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Jun 27, 2022 5:12 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Jun 17, 2022 11:05 am
Looks like they are going for Snake Island again. Ukraine reports striking a Russian ship - a supply ship rather than a surface combatant - with Harpoon missiles nearby. Unlike claims re: Admiral Makarov, there's footage of the hits.
More Snake Island. Accurate hits with no sign of aircraft attack. Very likely to be M31 rockets fired from M142 HIMARS.

With the ability to pick off pinpoint targets on the island, and the ability to hit ships trying to make it to and from the island, it does seem that the Russian garrison on Snake Island are in very serious danger.

The US should also very seriously consider sending a few unmodified M30 rockets if they still have them. While there are immense ethical issues in general with the use of cluster munitions, the Snake Island garrison is one target where they can be used without too much in the way of worries - there's no civilians there, no civilian access meaning no worries about people - especially children - finding UXO, and the island will already need sweeping for UXO from all that's already happened.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:47 pm

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... xdiEixJA1w
#Ukraine: We finally can visually confirm that US-supplied M142 HIMARS are currently used for strikes deep into Russian-controlled territories - fragments of M31A1 GMLRS unitary rocket were found after a target was hit in Perevalsk, #Luhansk Oblast, 45 km from the front line


Good

nice of Russia to help with this
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:03 am

jimbob wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:47 pm
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... xdiEixJA1w
#Ukraine: We finally can visually confirm that US-supplied M142 HIMARS are currently used for strikes deep into Russian-controlled territories - fragments of M31A1 GMLRS unitary rocket were found after a target was hit in Perevalsk, #Luhansk Oblast, 45 km from the front line


Good

nice of Russia to help with this
And it's damn effective. This is what happened to a Russian ammo dump. Most of the damage will have been done by the ammo in the dump going up, but clearly it was struck accurately enough to set it all off.

And in news probably related to the arrival of HIMARS, the Russians appear to have given up on holding Snake Island.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by TopBadger » Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:12 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:03 am
And in news probably related to the arrival of HIMARS, the Russians appear to have given up on holding Snake Island.
I wonder if Ukraine will try to get it back... if they could populate it with a few anti-aircraft, and long range anti-shipping missiles and a missile defense system you'd think it would be theirs for keeps.

But - in any event - keeping Russia off it is a big enough win...
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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by jimbob » Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:45 am

TopBadger wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:12 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:03 am
And in news probably related to the arrival of HIMARS, the Russians appear to have given up on holding Snake Island.
I wonder if Ukraine will try to get it back... if they could populate it with a few anti-aircraft, and long range anti-shipping missiles and a missile defense system you'd think it would be theirs for keeps.

But - in any event - keeping Russia off it is a big enough win...
It would be funny if Romania claimed it.

But not very funny
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:13 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:03 am
jimbob wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:47 pm
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... xdiEixJA1w
#Ukraine: We finally can visually confirm that US-supplied M142 HIMARS are currently used for strikes deep into Russian-controlled territories - fragments of M31A1 GMLRS unitary rocket were found after a target was hit in Perevalsk, #Luhansk Oblast, 45 km from the front line


Good

nice of Russia to help with this
And it's damn effective. This is what happened to a Russian ammo dump. Most of the damage will have been done by the ammo in the dump going up, but clearly it was struck accurately enough to set it all off.

And in news probably related to the arrival of HIMARS, the Russians appear to have given up on holding Snake Island.
Source here: https://twitter.com/rolandoliphant/stat ... V3jlKjIxTA

Suggests that the problem was shelling by a French CESAR.

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:16 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:13 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:03 am
jimbob wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:47 pm
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... xdiEixJA1w



Good

nice of Russia to help with this
And it's damn effective. This is what happened to a Russian ammo dump. Most of the damage will have been done by the ammo in the dump going up, but clearly it was struck accurately enough to set it all off.

And in news probably related to the arrival of HIMARS, the Russians appear to have given up on holding Snake Island.
Source here: https://twitter.com/rolandoliphant/stat ... V3jlKjIxTA

Suggests that the problem was shelling by a French CESAR.
This source states a Ukrainian howitzer: https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... MCe9bwlA8Q

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:19 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:16 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:13 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:03 am


And it's damn effective. This is what happened to a Russian ammo dump. Most of the damage will have been done by the ammo in the dump going up, but clearly it was struck accurately enough to set it all off.

And in news probably related to the arrival of HIMARS, the Russians appear to have given up on holding Snake Island.
Source here: https://twitter.com/rolandoliphant/stat ... V3jlKjIxTA

Suggests that the problem was shelling by a French CESAR.
This source states a Ukrainian howitzer: https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... MCe9bwlA8Q
Yes, I wrote my message before I was aware of that detail. 2S22 Bohdana, a very similar concept to CAESAR, but Ukrainian made.

Previous reports talked about rocket artillery and aviation in use as well, so HIMARS could have been involved, but so could Smerch and Uragan (and the Ukrainian designs derived from them).

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Re: Blyatskrieg

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Jun 30, 2022 3:02 pm

Emmanuel Macron, on twitter a few minutes ago wrote:France will deliver swiftly equipment Ukraine needs to defend itself, including 6 more Caesar howitzers and a significant number of tanks. France, the allies and European partners are and will be there.
This might be a mistranslation/confusion for armoured vehicles in general, as France is apparently sending quite a few of the VAB armoured cars they are retiring, but if accurate, it's a big step. Even if it does really refer to the VABs, the French are stepping up their support, and Macron's rhetoric has become a lot more sensible, possibly a consequence of getting the elections out of the way.

ETA: the original says véhicules blindés, so that's more likely to be armoured cars. Tanks would probably be chars de combat

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