Scrutable

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 29, 2022 3:13 pm

The current ripple in journalism where all the journalists feel the need to copy each other is concerns over supply of munitions -

The concern about production is coming from NATO governments and armed forces.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 29, 2022 3:13 pm

if the US were so worried about that, they should have supplied something more effective rather than watching M31 after M31 slowly chew their way through the Antonivsky bridge when it could and should have been decisively dropped.

You are perhaps making some somewhat optimistic assumptions about the level of foresight and coherence in the Pentagon.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 29, 2022 4:27 pm

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 29, 2022 3:13 pm

The current ripple in journalism where all the journalists feel the need to copy each other is concerns over supply of munitions -

The concern about production is coming from NATO governments and armed forces.

I agree, however, the current spate of articles is more about how journalism works and journalists responding to other people's articles than it is due to any particular change in the situation.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 29, 2022 3:13 pm

if the US were so worried about that, they should have supplied something more effective rather than watching M31 after M31 slowly chew their way through the Antonivsky bridge when it could and should have been decisively dropped.

You are perhaps making some somewhat optimistic assumptions about the level of foresight and coherence in the Pentagon.

I mean I'd say I was criticising the level of foresight and coherence in Pentagon planning, and this is hardly the only issue where I have criticisms.

So the thing Ukraine apparently want more of most is Gepards.

This shouldn't be surprising to anyone paying attention to the pressures on manoeuvre warfare in an age of cheap drones. It is, however, apparently a surprise to most western militaries, who seem to have largely given up on the SPAAG* concept. Then again, even as we see wheeled vehicles sinking into the Ukrainian mud, many western militaries appear to be trying to abandon tracks in favour of wheels.

*Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Gun. One or more rapid firing guns generally in the 20-60mm range mounted on a mobile chassis, often that of a tank, and designed to shoot down helicopters and other aerial things.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 29, 2022 5:41 pm

So the thing Ukraine apparently want more of most is Gepards.

This shouldn't be surprising to anyone paying attention to the pressures on manoeuvre warfare in an age of cheap drones. It is, however, apparently a surprise to most western militaries, who seem to have largely given up on the SPAAG* concept. Then again, even as we see wheeled vehicles sinking into the Ukrainian mud, many western militaries appear to be trying to abandon tracks in favour of wheels.

*Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Gun. One or more rapid firing guns generally in the 20-60mm range mounted on a mobile chassis, often that of a tank, and designed to shoot down helicopters and other aerial things.

Yes, wheels are great when you don't need to worry about mud or snow

jimbob wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:07 pm

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 29, 2022 5:41 pm

So the thing Ukraine apparently want more of most is Gepards.

This shouldn't be surprising to anyone paying attention to the pressures on manoeuvre warfare in an age of cheap drones. It is, however, apparently a surprise to most western militaries, who seem to have largely given up on the SPAAG* concept. Then again, even as we see wheeled vehicles sinking into the Ukrainian mud, many western militaries appear to be trying to abandon tracks in favour of wheels.

*Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Gun. One or more rapid firing guns generally in the 20-60mm range mounted on a mobile chassis, often that of a tank, and designed to shoot down helicopters and other aerial things.

Yes, wheels are great when you don't need to worry about mud or snow

I would say the answer lies in continuous rubber tracks, but to be honest, there's a lot that needs overhaul in how defence equipment is procured in the west.

Wheeled vs tracked discussion lead me here. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military ... -track.htm

Who say anything above 10 Tonne should probably be tracked, anything above 20 definitely.

jimbob wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 29, 2022 6:07 pm

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 29, 2022 5:41 pm

So the thing Ukraine apparently want more of most is Gepards.

This shouldn't be surprising to anyone paying attention to the pressures on manoeuvre warfare in an age of cheap drones. It is, however, apparently a surprise to most western militaries, who seem to have largely given up on the SPAAG* concept. Then again, even as we see wheeled vehicles sinking into the Ukrainian mud, many western militaries appear to be trying to abandon tracks in favour of wheels.

*Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Gun. One or more rapid firing guns generally in the 20-60mm range mounted on a mobile chassis, often that of a tank, and designed to shoot down helicopters and other aerial things.

Yes, wheels are great when you don't need to worry about mud or snow

Or loose or wet sand. E.g. beaches and dunes.

Article discussing whether western suppliers to Ukraine should take away some restrictions to allow Ukraine to use western weapons to attack military targets within Russia

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/11/sho ... ng-russia/

TopBadger wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 29, 2022 9:50 pm

Article discussing whether western suppliers to Ukraine should take away some restrictions to allow Ukraine to use western weapons to attack military targets within Russia

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/11/sho ... ng-russia/

It's possible that this has happened already: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1581 ... Erpl_zIJWQ

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 29, 2022 4:43 pm

I agree, however, the current spate of articles is more about how journalism works and journalists responding to other people's articles than it is due to any particular change in the situation.

It seems to me that the articles have been instigated by officials who wish to prepare a wider audience for some bad news. Which could be a combination of expenditure cuts elsewhere to pay for increased production, less equipment going to allies or their own armed forces, or less being donated to Ukraine.

So nobody uses those hovercraft things from Die Another Day?

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Wed Nov 30, 2022 12:13 am

So nobody uses those hovercraft things from Die Another Day?

They have particular uses in landing operations, but not much else. Hovercraft are horribly inefficient, difficult to maneuver, and need fairly smooth terrain.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Wed Nov 30, 2022 3:08 am

Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑

Wed Nov 30, 2022 12:13 am

So nobody uses those hovercraft things from Die Another Day?

They have particular uses in landing operations, but not much else. Hovercraft are horribly inefficient, difficult to maneuver, and need fairly smooth terrain.

But they are fun to drive!

Thread on lessons learnt from the first phase of the war: https://twitter.com/shashj/status/15979 ... gi9-Z8PelA

I was relieved to see YouTuber Lindybeige's latest vid; a follow up to an interview early this year with a British soldier volunteering to serve in Ukraine. I had rather feared the worst because soon after that first video the news described a huge Russian missile barrage against a reception/training centre near the Polish border where it was supposed many of the international volunteers would have been. He was indeed there, with perhaps a thousand others, and there were a lot of casualties but he came through okay.

This seems like maybe it deserves to be in the "what are you watching?" thread but it was an interesting on-the-ground insight into the good and bad aspects of how the war is being conducted. Looks like it'll be in more than one part.

Some of the most recent footage in some parts of Ukraine shows the ground solid, even where it's been heavily chewed up by vehicles. It looks like we're starting to move from autumn Bezdorizhzhia into the winter hard ground period, might be another week or two in some areas, and the dynamics are also a bit different in the south, where it is both warmer but also dryer to begin with.

An additional thing to note is that we've not seen any sign of Ukrainian units redeploying from right-bank Kherson yet. While these units will all need/have needed some rest and reorganisation before being put back into the fight, many of them will be available soon, if not already. It is possible Ukraine is creating an operational reserve to be deployed when needed to exploit an opening.

The Russians appear to be advancing very slightly in the area south of Bakhmut. Their tactics are horrible - Wagner Group infantry, a lot of them convicts, are sent in directed by drones, doing what they are told for fear of reprisal from the bastards in charge. They are dying in droves, there is no other way to put it. Infantry sent over ground where the only cover is shell craters and under observation from thermal cameras and getting hit by drones and artillery.

Ukrainian forces are advancing slowly too, north of the Severskyi Donets on the Kreminna-Svatove part of the front. Some sources place them just southwest of Kreminna now, coming up through the woods. Further north progress is slow, but still happening. The Ukrainians aren't quite at the military summit of the ridgeline west of Svatove. If they get there, it will get very unpleasant for the Russians down in the valley.

In the south, meanwhile, fire support assets that had been used in the Kherson campaign now appear to be targetting supply lines in left-bank Kherson and southern Zaporizhzhia oblast.

So in summary, just because the fronts aren't moving fast right now does not mean that they are not active and contested. It is possible we may see more movement as the ground continues to harden.

Russia is possibly gathering forces to attack Vuhledar.

This map - originally from one of the more reliable Ukrainian telegram channels - shows the course of the only railway line from the east to the occupied south now that the Kerch Strait bridge is out of action.



At present, the line is unusable as it is in range of everything from heavy mortars upwards. Previous attacks near Marinka with the same goal in mind failed. Without action in this area, Russian supplies to the south are limited. Currently, they are using landing ships to provide supplies. It would be great if the west could stop f.cking about and send the kind of arms needed to hit them while they unload - they are sitting ducks at that point.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Sat Dec 03, 2022 1:10 pm

Some of the most recent footage in some parts of Ukraine shows the ground solid, even where it's been heavily chewed up by vehicles. It looks like we're starting to move from autumn Bezdorizhzhia into the winter hard ground period, might be another week or two in some areas, and the dynamics are also a bit different in the south, where it is both warmer but also dryer to begin with.

An additional thing to note is that we've not seen any sign of Ukrainian units redeploying from right-bank Kherson yet. While these units will all need/have needed some rest and reorganisation before being put back into the fight, many of them will be available soon, if not already. It is possible Ukraine is creating an operational reserve to be deployed when needed to exploit an opening.

The Russians appear to be advancing very slightly in the area south of Bakhmut. Their tactics are horrible - Wagner Group infantry, a lot of them convicts, are sent in directed by drones, doing what they are told for fear of reprisal from the bastards in charge. They are dying in droves, there is no other way to put it. Infantry sent over ground where the only cover is shell craters and under observation from thermal cameras and getting hit by drones and artillery.

Ukrainian forces are advancing slowly too, north of the Severskyi Donets on the Kreminna-Svatove part of the front. Some sources place them just southwest of Kreminna now, coming up through the woods. Further north progress is slow, but still happening. The Ukrainians aren't quite at the military summit of the ridgeline west of Svatove. If they get there, it will get very unpleasant for the Russians down in the valley.

In the south, meanwhile, fire support assets that had been used in the Kherson campaign now appear to be targetting supply lines in left-bank Kherson and southern Zaporizhzhia oblast.

So in summary, just because the fronts aren't moving fast right now does not mean that they are not active and contested. It is possible we may see more movement as the ground continues to harden.

I saw somewhere a claim that Russia's prison population has been reduced by 25% due to mobilisation.

jimbob wrote: ↑

Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:26 pm

I saw somewhere a claim that Russia's prison population has been reduced by 25% due to mobilisation.

They are going to run out of convicts at this rate. The approach really is to treat people as cannon fodder, the commanders sitting at the back with a drone's eye view telling people exactly where to go and so on, but infantry in the open - and that ground is so shelled there is no real cover or concealment possible - have no defence against artillery and mortars.

I don't know if this is related to the above, but some people are pushing the idea that Prigozhin was a "Rooster" during his time in Soviet prisons - someone who offers sexual favours to other inmates and is thus at the absolute bottom of the complex hierachy of the Russian prison system. If that gets around, then organised crime might be a bit more wary of getting involved with his organisation, if they get any choice in the matter.

They've been doing this for months, sending groups of unsupported infantry in to probe for weaknesses, and using artillery to try and level defensive positions, but with limited success, as defensive positions are generally designed to survive that sort of treatment as near intact as possible. Sometimes, it appears as if they are using the infantry to draw Ukrainian fire and thus reveal Ukrainian artillery positions.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:38 pm

jimbob wrote: ↑

Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:26 pm

I saw somewhere a claim that Russia's prison population has been reduced by 25% due to mobilisation.

They are going to run out of convicts at this rate. The approach really is to treat people as cannon fodder, the commanders sitting at the back with a drone's eye view telling people exactly where to go and so on, but infantry in the open - and that ground is so shelled there is no real cover or concealment possible - have no defence against artillery and mortars.

I don't know if this is related to the above, but some people are pushing the idea that Prigozhin was a "Rooster" during his time in Soviet prisons - someone who offers sexual favours to other inmates and is thus at the absolute bottom of the complex hierachy of the Russian prison system. If that gets around, then organised crime might be a bit more wary of getting involved with his organisation, if they get any choice in the matter.

They've been doing this for months, sending groups of unsupported infantry in to probe for weaknesses, and using artillery to try and level defensive positions, but with limited success, as defensive positions are generally designed to survive that sort of treatment as near intact as possible. Sometimes, it appears as if they are using the infantry to draw Ukrainian fire and thus reveal Ukrainian artillery positions.

Here

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/stat ... wszzhtAqXw

Also, by mobilising utility engineers as cannon fodder, the Kremlin is doing to its civilian population what it tries to do to Ukrainian civilians.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/ ... wszzhtAqXw

Looks like some Gepards will be making their way to Ukraine after all.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/12/put ... an-planes/

Seven is better than none, the ammo situation seems tight though.

TopBadger wrote: ↑

Sun Dec 04, 2022 7:32 am

Looks like some Gepards will be making their way to Ukraine after all.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/12/put ... an-planes/

Seven is better than none, the ammo situation seems tight though.

Gepards have been in service in Ukraine for a while, they started arriving in the summer. They were credited with helping enable the Kharkiv offensive back in september as they are a powerful deterrent to helicopters, and their radars can also inform MANPADS teams of nearby aircraft. They are apparently good at taking down the Iranian loitering munitions ("Shaitanmopeds"), and I've heard something that sounds a lot like them during videos of cruise missile shootdowns.

Rocket salad.

Brightonian wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 05, 2022 12:12 am

Rocket salad.

These were fired at a city. They appear to mostly be the motor and carrier sections of MLRS cluster rockets. They fired them at a city.

There's reports of explosions at two Russian airbases, Engels-2 and Ryazan, that are used to attack Ukraine. There's talk of it being done with drones - Ukraine was talking about long range loitering munitions (aka suicide drones) - so that feels possible. Reportedly a couple of Tu-95 "Bear" strategic bombers were damaged at Engels-2, but this is still very unconfirmed.