Scrutable

I figured the UK would have a load of old FV432's it wasn't using anymore (APC's rather than IFV's, but still potentially useful)... turns out we're still using them

Russian milbloggers and others are extremely upset about a Ukrainian strike in Makiivka. It appears that a lot of Russian troops, possibly also ammunition, were quartered in a vocational school in the town, a relatively modern three story building which was completely obliterated by the strike, which, according to Russian descriptions, was HIMARS*, though it is close enough to the frontline that it could have been other things too.

Casualty figures as high as six hundred are being claimed, although that is likely a significant overestimate as it would mean every single occupant of the building became a casualty. Realistically, though, given the state of the building, if it was significantly occupied by troops, casualties will have been high.

*Though according to Russians and some sections of the western media, all NATO MLRS is HIMARS, when in reality there's more M270 launching capacity present than HIMARS, and at least a small amount of Turkish GMLRS too.

ETA: Managed to post the first half only, added second half.

Before and after photographs courtesy of Christo Grozev





I'd previously seen footage, but I only link stuff where I've checked all the way the through the video for Russians of the second freshness, and didn't particularly feel in the mood for doing so in case it did.

Official Russian sources are already listing the death toll of the Makiivka strike, carried out in the first minute of the new year, as sixty three - the reality is likely to be higher than they admit, but it's also not likely to be known for some time.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 02, 2023 1:45 pm

Official Russian sources are already listing the death toll of the Makiivka strike, carried out in the first minute of the new year, as sixty three - the reality is likely to be higher than they admit, but it's also not likely to be known for some time.

They must have had some good intelligence to make that strike. Also, I wonder if it was launched on the stroke of midnight? I don’t know what the flight time would be but I suspect a minute is longer than it would fly for?

Are the Russians so dumb as to garrison so many troops under the same roof?

TopBadger wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 02, 2023 3:47 pm

Are the Russians so dumb as to garrison so many troops under the same roof?

Yes, they are.

Its difficult to disperse rapidly mobilized and poorly trained and equipped troops. They lack proficient and reliable small unit leaders and the training and equipment needed coordinate their activities with other units. A dispersed squad or platoon would probably just find a safe patch of woodland and stay there until some officer finds them and orders them somewhere else.

Woodchopper wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 02, 2023 3:52 pm

TopBadger wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 02, 2023 3:47 pm

Are the Russians so dumb as to garrison so many troops under the same roof?

Yes, they are.

Its difficult to disperse rapidly mobilized and poorly trained and equipped troops. They lack proficient and reliable small unit leaders and the training and equipment needed coordinate their activities with other units. A dispersed squad or platoon would probably just find a safe patch of woodland and stay there until some officer finds them and orders them somewhere else.

This is exactly it. You can disperse your troops if you trust them to do what they are meant to do without immediate oversight from higher ups, and have enough confidence in their ability and judgement that they will make immediate tactical decisions without needing to send it up the chain of command, and that they have enough knowledge and composure to provide meaningful reports on what they and the enemy are doing. That is what is required of the properly trained modern soldier on the modern battlefield.

You can also use levée en masse to fill your army with new recruits. What you can't do, is use evée en masse to create properly trained modern soldiers.

And if you put large groups of conscripts in occupied territory, word will reach your enemy. And on the modern battlefield, there are weapons that can strike within a few metres of their intended targets at considerable range.

Ah... they were untrained conscripts... Well, that explains it, otherwise I expect they would have been dispersed amongst units.

Demonstrates the futility of sending untrained soldiers anywhere near to a front line and indicates the Russians still have a lot of gaps to fill in their useful manpower.

Heard chatter of Ukraine pushing at Kremmina... if they break though the Russians will lilely need to drop 40km to another defensive line, I hope they are successful if true.

TopBadger wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 02, 2023 4:38 pm

Ah... they were untrained conscripts... Well, that explains it, otherwise I expect they would have been dispersed amongst units.

Demonstrates the futility of sending untrained soldiers anywhere near to a front line and indicates the Russians still have a lot of gaps to fill in their useful manpower.

Heard chatter of Ukraine pushing at Kremmina... if they break though the Russians will lilely need to drop 40km to another defensive line, I hope they are successful if true.

There's been a lot of talk about Kreminna lately, Ukrainian forces are definitely getting quite close, last I heard there was a degree of back and forth in the Serebryansky forest between the town and the Seversky Donets river. If current trends hold, Ukraine will take the town, as they have slowly been advancing on the Kreminna-Svatove front, but when that will happen is something I'm not willing to predict. The other thing to look out for is topography. The most recent maps I've seen mostly have Russia still holding the escarpment crest just west of the road between Svatove and Kreminna. If/when Ukraine takes that ridge, it will make positions in the valley very difficult to defend.

Grumble wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 02, 2023 2:55 pm

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 02, 2023 1:45 pm

Official Russian sources are already listing the death toll of the Makiivka strike, carried out in the first minute of the new year, as sixty three - the reality is likely to be higher than they admit, but it's also not likely to be known for some time.

They must have had some good intelligence to make that strike. Also, I wonder if it was launched on the stroke of midnight? I don’t know what the flight time would be but I suspect a minute is longer than it would fly for?

The news here just mentioned that cellphone signals were used for targeting, since the conscripts had them switched on to exchange new year's messages with their families.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:12 pm

Grumble wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 02, 2023 2:55 pm

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 02, 2023 1:45 pm

Official Russian sources are already listing the death toll of the Makiivka strike, carried out in the first minute of the new year, as sixty three - the reality is likely to be higher than they admit, but it's also not likely to be known for some time.

They must have had some good intelligence to make that strike. Also, I wonder if it was launched on the stroke of midnight? I don’t know what the flight time would be but I suspect a minute is longer than it would fly for?

The news here just mentioned that cellphone signals were used for targeting, since the conscripts had them switched on to exchange new year's messages with their families.

I'd say that's almost certainly untrue. Nobody - absolutely nobody - is launching more than half a million dollars of missiles* into an urban area full of people they regard as their own civilians on that kind of notice. Given the usual modus operandi of HIMARS in particular, they are unlikely to be even stored near the frontline. They can move in, fire their payload and get out again, but that requires a little planning.

To give a some context about this strike, here's a satellite image courtest of Aric Toler.



Cellphone signals might have been used, but there are a lot of other sorts of intelligence that could pinpoint a location like the one in question. I suspect cellphone signals might have been used became cellphone signals were used and then people looked at the timing and someone put two and two together and made seventeen.



*assuming that reports that it was six missiles from a HIMARS (or M270/MARS II/LRU) are correct.

I suspect 600 troops turning up and moving into a school is the kind of thing that gets noticed by the locals and reported.

There's talk of Russians losing ammunition depots in Svatove and possibly either Henichesk or the Arabat Spit. There's also finally - after unseasonably warm weather - forecasts for Luhansk oblast that will see the ground freeze hard soon. In addition, Russia has suffered extensive attrition in places like Bakhmut and Mar'inka.

I'm not saying we will see anything dramatic, but for the first time really since the liberation of Kherson, we could

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 26, 2022 2:03 pm

Engels-2 got hit again. Russian sources claim they deflected the munition at the last moment, but that it still killed three pilots. Engels-2 is a strategic bomber base used by bombers that launch missiles at Ukraine. It's many hundreds kilometres from Ukraine.

So again the question is "what airdefence doing?"

More recent claims are that it was three engineers - accompanied by names and portraits of the deceased. The thing is, they were Tu-160 engineers. It's curious why they, of all people, were hit, and I'm wondering now if the attack was actually on a Tu-160. Previous strikes have been during bombing up prior to standoff-missile attacks on Ukraine.

For context the Tu-160 is the largest bomber in service, and Russia has just sixteen of them. It would be a very expensive loss if it were damaged, and not an easy plane to repair given it's extensive use of titanium. Doesn't look there's any satellite imagery, though, which isn't rare for this time of year.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 02, 2023 9:29 pm

There's talk of Russians losing ammunition depots in Svatove and possibly either Henichesk or the Arabat Spit. There's also finally - after unseasonably warm weather - forecasts for Luhansk oblast that will see the ground freeze hard soon. In addition, Russia has suffered extensive attrition in places like Bakhmut and Mar'inka.

I'm not saying we will see anything dramatic, but for the first time really since the liberation of Kherson, we could

How long is the freeze expected to last? I'd think the Ukrainians would not be that ambitious to restart maneuver warfare if there is a risk of the ground thawing resulting in units stuck in place. Perhaps more likely to be a period of increased resupply and rotation rather than retaking ground?

One wonders what the Russian high command actually thinks of their long term prospects.

TopBadger wrote: ↑

Tue Jan 03, 2023 10:22 am

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 02, 2023 9:29 pm

There's talk of Russians losing ammunition depots in Svatove and possibly either Henichesk or the Arabat Spit. There's also finally - after unseasonably warm weather - forecasts for Luhansk oblast that will see the ground freeze hard soon. In addition, Russia has suffered extensive attrition in places like Bakhmut and Mar'inka.

I'm not saying we will see anything dramatic, but for the first time really since the liberation of Kherson, we could

How long is the freeze expected to last?

Forecast for Kreminna is at least ten days where temperatures don't get about zero.

I'd think the Ukrainians would not be that ambitious to restart maneuver warfare if there is a risk of the ground thawing resulting in units stuck in place. Perhaps more likely to be a period of increased resupply and rotation rather than retaking ground?

I'm sure the Ukrainians would love to restart manoeuvre warfare, but there are multiple obstacles to doing so, including the risk of that you mention, and the increasing use of anti-vehicle ditches and dragon's teeth anti-vehicle obstacles.

However, hard ground is also relevant at the operational level. A tactic Ukraine have used a number of times, but most notably in the Kharkiv offensive, is to attack very fast with light vehicles like Humvees and buggies with machine gunners putting down a withering hail of fire to keep Russian heads down while the infantry dismount to clear the positions. It works by shock and suddenness, and represents an approach that has been carefully adapted to use what Ukraine has available in sufficient quantity. Sometimes it's been combined with tanks, too, but without supporting infantry they are vulnerable, and even vehicles that can handle the mud, like MT-LBs, can't move quickly in it. Hard ground would allow a return of the tactics that Ukraine used during the Kharkiv offensive and earlier during Kraken Group's liberation of much of northern Kharkiv oblast.

And to reiterate, I'm not saying this will happen, just noting that one major obstacle that has been a major factor for several months on the northern parts of the front is going to be less of an issue for a while.

While not on the level of Makiivka - likely due to the lack of stored explosives and secondary explosion - Ukraine has struck troop quarters in several areas, all along the frontline. It seems to be a new approach, but it's goal - to bleed the Russians dry through attrition - looks to be pretty clear.

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 04, 2023 2:46 pm

While not on the level of Makiivka - likely due to the lack of stored explosives and secondary explosion - Ukraine has struck troop quarters in several areas, all along the frontline. It seems to be a new approach, but it's goal - to bleed the Russians dry through attrition - looks to be pretty clear.

Who the f.ck stores explosives in a barracks?

EACLucifer wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:20 pm

shpalman wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:12 pm

Grumble wrote: ↑

Mon Jan 02, 2023 2:55 pm

They must have had some good intelligence to make that strike. Also, I wonder if it was launched on the stroke of midnight? I don’t know what the flight time would be but I suspect a minute is longer than it would fly for?

The news here just mentioned that cellphone signals were used for targeting, since the conscripts had them switched on to exchange new year's messages with their families.

I'd say that's almost certainly untrue. Nobody - absolutely nobody - is launching more than half a million dollars of missiles* into an urban area full of people they regard as their own civilians on that kind of notice. Given the usual modus operandi of HIMARS in particular, they are unlikely to be even stored near the frontline. They can move in, fire their payload and get out again, but that requires a little planning.

To give a some context about this strike, here's a satellite image courtest of Aric Toler.



Cellphone signals might have been used, but there are a lot of other sorts of intelligence that could pinpoint a location like the one in question. I suspect cellphone signals might have been used became cellphone signals were used and then people looked at the timing and someone put two and two together and made seventeen.



*assuming that reports that it was six missiles from a HIMARS (or M270/MARS II/LRU) are correct.

The official Russian line is to blame mobile phone usage which is further evidence that it's almost certainly untrue and the command just wants to blame their troops instead of their own failures.

shpalman wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 04, 2023 3:13 pm

The official Russian line is to blame mobile phone usage which is further evidence that it's almost certainly untrue and the command just wants to blame their troops instead of their own failures.

Yeah - I saw that this morning...

I expect at least some conscripts were using mobile phones when they shouldn't have been... but the real failure is putting 700 troops and ammunition within the range and blast radius of one HIMAR's munition.

Grumble wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 04, 2023 3:01 pm

Who the f.ck stores explosives in a barracks?

Russian leadership probably think it's safer there, at least from saboteurs and the general populace. For Ukraine's sake I hope they don't learn their lesson.

Sounds rather like a repeat of their success last year in attacking concentrations of stored ammunition, but with the added benefit of degrading Russian units indirectly by forcing them to disperse troops from quarters like this into a winter they may be less well equipped for.

TopBadger wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 04, 2023 3:27 pm

shpalman wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 04, 2023 3:13 pm

The official Russian line is to blame mobile phone usage which is further evidence that it's almost certainly untrue and the command just wants to blame their troops instead of their own failures.

Yeah - I saw that this morning...

I expect at least some conscripts were using mobile phones when they shouldn't have been... but the real failure is putting 700 troops and ammunition within the range and blast radius of one HIMAR's munition.

Grumble wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 04, 2023 3:01 pm

Who the f.ck stores explosives in a barracks?

Russian leadership probably think it's safer there, at least from saboteurs and the general populace. For Ukraine's sake I hope they don't learn their lesson.

The Russians have also made ridiculous counterattack claims following the attack. Apparently they reckon that the Ukrainians didn't move off after the attack and they were able to destroy 5 HIMARS, 4 MLRS RM-70s, 800 rockets, 8 cars plus 200 Ukrainians and foreign mercenaries... oh and that they had actually intercepted most of the incoming rockets, so hah it wasn't that bad...

Trying to add up the accumulated Russian claims so far, they must have destroyed the Ukrainian armed forces and everything they've received several times over by now.

Claims of public confirmation of Bradleys going to Ukraine

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/sta ... 4161558537

"On the table" <> "going to Ukraine"... at least not yet. But hopefully this is signposting another salami slice.