Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
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Bird on a Fire
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by Bird on a Fire » Mon Apr 11, 2022 1:05 pm
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:47 pm
Mmmmm. I'm not sure that the center is so beleaguered. Over the past few years across Europe the right wing populists have usually failed to take or hold onto power. As well as Spain, Italy and Germany mentioned earlier, there are left wing led coalitions in Sweden and Denmark, and a broad coalition in Belgium. Traditional center right parties are in power in the Netherlands, Czech Republic and Ireland.
Certainly Britain, Poland and Hungary are exceptions. But they don't seem to be part of a general trend.
It kinda seems like the movie from five years ago was The Reactionaries Strike Back whereas the current movie is The Return of The Centre.
Holding offices of power isn't everything, though. Far-right populists are still doing way better than they used to in loads of countries, getting them air time, attention, and the ability to shift the Overton window and push their politics.
Portugal went from a broad-left confidence-and-supply to centre-left majority at the last election, but the big talking point is that the far right went from 1 to 12 MPs, gaining ground from the centre-right.
My impression is that far-right populists are growing, as part of a general trend across Europe, e.g. the formation of the Identity and Democracy group in the EU Parliament etc. Which is a worrying trend given the likely prospects for the next decade: more crises, more refugees and more economic disruption.
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Woodchopper
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by Woodchopper » Tue Apr 12, 2022 7:24 am
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 1:05 pm
Woodchopper wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:47 pm
Mmmmm. I'm not sure that the center is so beleaguered. Over the past few years across Europe the right wing populists have usually failed to take or hold onto power. As well as Spain, Italy and Germany mentioned earlier, there are left wing led coalitions in Sweden and Denmark, and a broad coalition in Belgium. Traditional center right parties are in power in the Netherlands, Czech Republic and Ireland.
Certainly Britain, Poland and Hungary are exceptions. But they don't seem to be part of a general trend.
It kinda seems like the movie from five years ago was The Reactionaries Strike Back whereas the current movie is The Return of The Centre.
Holding offices of power isn't everything, though. Far-right populists are still doing way better than they used to in loads of countries, getting them air time, attention, and the ability to shift the Overton window and push their politics.
Portugal went from a broad-left confidence-and-supply to centre-left majority at the last election, but the big talking point is that the far right went from 1 to 12 MPs, gaining ground from the centre-right.
My impression is that far-right populists are growing, as part of a general trend across Europe, e.g. the formation of the Identity and Democracy group in the EU Parliament etc. Which is a worrying trend given the likely prospects for the next decade: more crises, more refugees and more economic disruption.
I agree that there the populist right has far more support than it had ten or twenty years ago. However, someone who quoted WB Yates that "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;" would be going too far. With the exception of the UK, Hungary and Poland, across Europe mainstream centre left and centre right politics has been able to prevent the right wing populists from actually doing very much.
But I agree that it has had an important effect in that the rise of the populist right has shifted the window of what is politically feasible. The Centre holding is a good alternative to the populist right taking over government. But there doesn't seem to be a realistic prospect of anyone further left taking power. But things change.
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snoozeofreason
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by snoozeofreason » Wed Apr 13, 2022 10:01 am
Le Monde have published an interactive map, allowing you to explore the votes, commune by commune.
https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/ar ... 55770.html.
In six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them. The human body was knocked up pretty late on the Friday afternoon, with a deadline looming. How well do you expect it to work?
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Gfamily
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by Gfamily » Wed Apr 13, 2022 10:13 am
Our local commune voted Macron, but it's surrounded by LePen voting areas - however, they are mostly smaller counts (typo carefully avoided).
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
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Brightonian
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by Brightonian » Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:53 pm
Gfamily wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 10:13 am
Our local commune voted Macron, but it's surrounded by LePen voting areas - however, they are mostly smaller counts (typo carefully avoided).
Our commune voted Le Pen, as did most others nearby. People voted in slightly greater numbers than 2017, and with a higher proportion being for Le Pen. It feels a bit Brexity.
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WFJ
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by WFJ » Wed Apr 13, 2022 5:11 pm
Le Pen apparently said today that after leaving Nato she wants a closer defensive alliance with Russia, once the war in Ukraine is over. Does that actually play well in France at the moment? I thought she was trying to distance herself from Putin.
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Brightonian
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by Brightonian » Sun Apr 24, 2022 4:36 pm
Polls close 19:00 UK time or 20h en français or 06:00 South Pole time (I think, NZST), and there will be an exit poll soon after. Saw a news item this morning saying polling was a bit slower than last time.
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Brightonian
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by Brightonian » Sun Apr 24, 2022 6:00 pm
Exit poll says Macron gets 58%.
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shpalman
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by shpalman » Sun Apr 24, 2022 6:03 pm
Officially the winner already or is it just a projection?
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Brightonian
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by Brightonian » Sun Apr 24, 2022 6:14 pm
shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Apr 24, 2022 6:03 pm
Officially the winner already or is it just a projection?
Just a projection, but on one of the news channels, BBC or Sky, they keep pointing out that the French exit poll has never, ever, ever been wrong.
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shpalman
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by shpalman » Sun Apr 24, 2022 6:16 pm
Brightonian wrote: ↑Sun Apr 24, 2022 6:14 pm
shpalman wrote: ↑Sun Apr 24, 2022 6:03 pm
Officially the winner already or is it just a projection?
Just a projection, but on one of the news channels, BBC or Sky, they keep pointing out that the French exit poll has never, ever, ever been wrong.
"According to usually accurate estimates, the current president scored 58.2% of the vote, against 41.8% for the Rassemblement National (National Rally) leader."
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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EACLucifer
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by EACLucifer » Sun Apr 24, 2022 8:21 pm
Not a huge fan of Macron, but I am very pleased by how dejected fash are about this result. It looks like things have gone ok in Slovenia, too, though I know approximately nothing about Slovenian politics.
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Herainestold
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by Herainestold » Sun Apr 24, 2022 9:57 pm
Will Macron feel he has enough of a mandate to get Putin back to the bargaining table?
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
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Bird on a Fire
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by Bird on a Fire » Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:04 pm
Herainestold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 24, 2022 9:57 pm
Will Macron feel he has enough of a mandate to get Putin back to the bargaining table?
No, with only 58% of the French electorate backing his presidency he'll probably just give up on trying to play a role in the world stage, and focus instead on his domestic priorities like demonizing Muslims, tear-gassing protesters and cutting tax for the wealthy.
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Herainestold
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by Herainestold » Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:30 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:04 pm
Herainestold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 24, 2022 9:57 pm
Will Macron feel he has enough of a mandate to get Putin back to the bargaining table?
No, with only 58% of the French electorate backing his presidency he'll probably just give up on trying to play a role in the world stage, and focus instead on his domestic priorities like demonizing Muslims, tear-gassing protesters and cutting tax for the wealthy.
I thought that was Le Pen's policy.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again
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Bird on a Fire
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by Bird on a Fire » Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:25 am
Herainestold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:30 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:04 pm
Herainestold wrote: ↑Sun Apr 24, 2022 9:57 pm
Will Macron feel he has enough of a mandate to get Putin back to the bargaining table?
No, with only 58% of the French electorate backing his presidency he'll probably just give up on trying to play a role in the world stage, and focus instead on his domestic priorities like demonizing Muslims, tear-gassing protesters and cutting tax for the wealthy.
I thought that was Le Pen's policy.
Sadly those things are all points of agreement between the two, which is partly why turnout was so low. Le Pen is worse, but Macron is still pretty authoritarian and racist by West European standards.
They differ on Russia though. Putin lost this election.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
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Holylol
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by Holylol » Mon Apr 25, 2022 7:09 am
I messed up this post
Last edited by
Holylol on Mon Apr 25, 2022 7:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Holylol
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by Holylol » Mon Apr 25, 2022 7:10 am
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:25 am
Sadly those things are all points of agreement between the two, which is partly why turnout was so low. Le Pen is worse, but Macron is still pretty authoritarian and racist by West European standards.
To write something like that, I am assuming that the news sources you read or listen to are not very diverse...
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Gfamily
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by Gfamily » Mon Apr 25, 2022 8:04 am
In terms of whether the turnout was low, it should be noted that UK hasn't had a higher turnout in any of its General Elections in the last 30 years.
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!
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Bird on a Fire
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by Bird on a Fire » Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:34 am
Holylol wrote: ↑Mon Apr 25, 2022 7:10 am
Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:25 am
Sadly those things are all points of agreement between the two, which is partly why turnout was so low. Le Pen is worse, but Macron is still pretty authoritarian and racist by West European standards.
To write something like that, I am assuming that the news sources you read or listen to are not very diverse...
You disagree?
For instance, stopping girls who wear veils from going to school counts as demonising in my book. Nowhere else in Western Europe targets Muslims (domestically) to the same extent.
Similarly, the security law banning reporting on police officers identities plays right into the hands on those who abuse they're authority. Again, unusual in Western European terms.
This stuff has been reported in mainstream UK and US media throughout his presidency, albeit in more tempered language than my French friends use to talk about him. Sources aren't the issue here.
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Bird on a Fire
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by Bird on a Fire » Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:37 am
Gfamily wrote: ↑Mon Apr 25, 2022 8:04 am
In terms of whether the turnout was low, it should be noted that UK hasn't had a higher turnout in any of its General Elections in the last 30 years.
Yeah, it would be a high turnout for Portugal as well. Obviously we want to compare apples with apples here.
Despite the threat of Le Pen, historically low numbers of French voters wanted to actively support either candidate. Macron isn't super popular either.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.