France
- El Pollo Diablo
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France
What the f.ck is wrong with them*?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61029655
*This is not to imply that there isn't shitloads wrong with other places, e.g. the UK or US.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61029655
*This is not to imply that there isn't shitloads wrong with other places, e.g. the UK or US.
If truth is many-sided, mendacity is many-tongued
Re: France
Exactly the same thing as is wrong with the rest of the world, a resurgent right-wing.El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑Fri Apr 08, 2022 1:46 pmWhat the f.ck is wrong with them*?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61029655
*This is not to imply that there isn't shitloads wrong with other places, e.g. the UK or US.
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three
now I sin till ten past three
- Brightonian
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Re: France
Am in France at the moment with my father who was reading a newspaper article which mentioned polling, and there was an interesting question pollsters asked. The question was "How sure are you?"
Voters were first asked who they'd be voting for. On giving their answer, they were then asked "How sure are you?" I think my father said there was a big difference between Macron and Le Pen supporters but I'm not telling you what it was because I wasn't paying attention, so this is a pointless comment really.
Edit: My father reckons a lot of Zemmour supporters aren't admitting to supporting him. However, I see Zemmour has slipped quite a bit in the polls recently so perhaps this is another pointless comment.
Voters were first asked who they'd be voting for. On giving their answer, they were then asked "How sure are you?" I think my father said there was a big difference between Macron and Le Pen supporters but I'm not telling you what it was because I wasn't paying attention, so this is a pointless comment really.
Edit: My father reckons a lot of Zemmour supporters aren't admitting to supporting him. However, I see Zemmour has slipped quite a bit in the polls recently so perhaps this is another pointless comment.
Last edited by Brightonian on Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.
- snoozeofreason
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Re: France
I think Macron is a bit of a Marmite candidate. He is the favourite of around 25% of the population, which is enough to get him into the second round. But among the remaining 75% of the population there are many who dislike him enough that they will put any reservations about Le Pen to one side and either vote for her or abstain. In elections past they might have voted for Macron with (possibly literal) clothes pegs on their noses, but that seems less likely this time.
Last edited by snoozeofreason on Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
In six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them. The human body was knocked up pretty late on the Friday afternoon, with a deadline looming. How well do you expect it to work?
Re: France
I know far too many French friends who intend to vote for Mélenchon, which could have a similar effect to Corbyn facilitating a Tory victory.
Time for a big fat one.
- snoozeofreason
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Re: France
It would only have that effect if they vote Mélenchon in round 1, then either abstain or vote Le Pen in round 2. The problem is that it sounds as if a lot of voters will actually do something like that
In six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them. The human body was knocked up pretty late on the Friday afternoon, with a deadline looming. How well do you expect it to work?
Re: France
Assuming Macron is not the Tory in this situation, doesn't the run-off system stop this from happening. From what I understand there is very little chance of him not passing the first vote.
- Woodchopper
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Re: France
I don’t think the right is resurgent.Grumble wrote: ↑Fri Apr 08, 2022 1:54 pmExactly the same thing as is wrong with the rest of the world, a resurgent right-wing.El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑Fri Apr 08, 2022 1:46 pmWhat the f.ck is wrong with them*?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61029655
*This is not to imply that there isn't shitloads wrong with other places, e.g. the UK or US.
The Democrats are in power in the US, there is an SPD, FDP, Green coalition government in Germany, Trudeau’s Liberals are in power in Canada, Sánchez‘a socialists are in power in Spain, Macron claims to be a centralist, and there’s a broad coalition government in Italy.
Bolsonaro is still in power in Brazil but Lula is ahead in the polls for the election later this year.
But the LDP won the last election in Japan and the BJP is in power in India. So there are some right wingers in power to give Johnson some company.
- shpalman
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Re: France
Matteo Salvini was recently the deputy prime minister though. But he tried to make a power-grab and the Lega got kicked out of the coalition. He practically behaves like he's in opposition even when he's part of the government, because he's a shallow moron populist, and I think he sold himself out to be part of the coalition again.
He'd rather be allied with the terrible terrible Giorgia Meloni, who is currently leader of the opposition.
Yeah I hope they've had their day and will continue to be sidelined.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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- EACLucifer
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Re: France
The bit that really worries me is the age profile - it's the young who seem more interested in the far right - but I don't know enough about French politics to know why.
- Brightonian
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Re: France
Some vox pops (from what my father saw in the papers):Brightonian wrote: ↑Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:22 pmAm in France at the moment with my father who was reading a newspaper article which mentioned polling, and there was an interesting question pollsters asked. The question was "How sure are you?"
Voters were first asked who they'd be voting for. On giving their answer, they were then asked "How sure are you?" I think my father said there was a big difference between Macron and Le Pen supporters but I'm not telling you what it was because I wasn't paying attention, so this is a pointless comment really.
Edit: My father reckons a lot of Zemmour supporters aren't admitting to supporting him. However, I see Zemmour has slipped quite a bit in the polls recently so perhaps this is another pointless comment.
"I won't vote for Zemmour because he's an intellectual. Le Pen is closer to the people."
"I won't vote for Zemmour, it would be a wasted vote, so I'm voting for Le Pen and hopefully Zemmour will be in her cabinet."
- Woodchopper
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Re: France
Just as an aside but people lying when surveyed is often claimed to be a significant factor, but there's little evidence that its a problem. What is an important source of bias is who can be contacted and are willing to participate in surveys.Brightonian wrote: ↑Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:22 pmMy father reckons a lot of Zemmour supporters aren't admitting to supporting him. However, I see Zemmour has slipped quite a bit in the polls recently so perhaps this is another pointless comment.
Re: France
Unfortunately that is exactly what the people I know will be doing. Abstaining, that is. Pointlessly destructive.snoozeofreason wrote: ↑Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:40 pmIt would only have that effect if they vote Mélenchon in round 1, then either abstain or vote Le Pen in round 2. The problem is that it sounds as if a lot of voters will actually do something like that
Time for a big fat one.
Re: France
People everywhere seem to be prone to the guile of populists. I don't believe in French exceptionalism any more than I believe in British exceptionalism.
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Re: France
If the French members of my family are anything to go by, we shouldn't underestimate the total contempt for what British people might call the 'metropolitan elite' of mainstream politicians and other leading figures.Opti wrote: ↑Sun Apr 10, 2022 10:41 amUnfortunately that is exactly what the people I know will be doing. Abstaining, that is. Pointlessly destructive.snoozeofreason wrote: ↑Fri Apr 08, 2022 3:40 pmIt would only have that effect if they vote Mélenchon in round 1, then either abstain or vote Le Pen in round 2. The problem is that it sounds as if a lot of voters will actually do something like that
- Bird on a Fire
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Re: France
Macron also seems to be quite strongly disliked by a lot of people on the left in France, at least judging by my friends there. He's been involved in some nasty stuff eg suppressing protests IIRC. Seems to be a case of taking their votes for granted as he's better than Le Pen, but in fact not everyone is prepared to hold their nose.
Personally I'd generally vote for the lesser of two evils, but this also seems to be a common problem with centrist vs far-right-populist elections.
Personally I'd generally vote for the lesser of two evils, but this also seems to be a common problem with centrist vs far-right-populist elections.
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
Re: France
Polls suggest 28% Macron to 24% LePen. This is a slightly bigger gap than 5 years ago.
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Re: France
And Mélenchon on 20% although I don't know if he's asked his supporters to get behind Macron yet, as Pécresse (5%) and Jadot (4.4%) have.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: France
He's asked his supporters not to vote for Marine Le Pen.
I'm assuming Zemmour's 7% will transfer to Le Pen though.
I'm assuming Zemmour's 7% will transfer to Le Pen though.
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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Re: France
Hard to say. I am inclined not to speculate.
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Re: France
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
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- Brightonian
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Re: France
I've this feeling Le Pen's going to win.
- Bird on a Fire
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Re: France
Reasonable take from Will Hutton yesterday https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... red-centre
We have the right to a clean, healthy, sustainable environment.
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Re: France
Mmmmm. I'm not sure that the center is so beleaguered. Over the past few years across Europe the right wing populists have usually failed to take or hold onto power. As well as Spain, Italy and Germany mentioned earlier, there are left wing led coalitions in Sweden and Denmark, and a broad coalition in Belgium. Traditional center right parties are in power in the Netherlands, Czech Republic and Ireland.Bird on a Fire wrote: ↑Mon Apr 11, 2022 10:24 amReasonable take from Will Hutton yesterday https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... red-centre
Certainly Britain, Poland and Hungary are exceptions. But they don't seem to be part of a general trend.
It kinda seems like the movie from five years ago was The Reactionaries Strike Back whereas the current movie is The Return of The Centre.