Poor Brexit outcomes

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
Post Reply
IvanV
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2585
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 11:12 am

Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by IvanV » Fri Oct 06, 2023 10:04 am

jimbob wrote:
Fri Oct 06, 2023 9:40 am
Similar type of graph, but percentage growth in goods exported from Q1-2016 to Q2-2-23
Much as Ireland is famously over-represented in GDP stats, the Netherlands is famously over-represented in goods export stats, because of trans-shipments through Rotterdam. The effect of trans-shipments on trade statistics is a rather more pervasive issue than the Irish GDP issue.

Looking just at goods exports you tend to get funny numbers. You need to look at goods imports and services trade too to get an overall picture. There are measurement problems with services trade. And there are general problems with trade stats, because when you add them up the world has a substantial trade deficit. Some if it is lost in transit, and there's smuggling and the black economy. But there isn't a convincing explanation for the magnitude of the number that comes up, and what we ought to do about it in consequence.

But, oh look, we tore up our trading agreements with our nearest neighbours, which had knock-on effects for everywhere else we trade, and now our export growth is a whole load less than theirs, what a surprise.

Though I wonder what the net position is. People trying to import components from the continent tell you it is a nightmare these days. So import growth might also have been slowed.

User avatar
headshot
Dorkwood
Posts: 1385
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:40 am

Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by headshot » Wed Jan 31, 2024 10:13 am

Andrea Leadsom has said today that “Brexit checks ‘price you pay for being a sovereign state again’”

“Andrea Leadsom says businesses experiencing ‘some friction’ should ‘adapt’ to changes in trade rules”

I hope you all enjoy fresh sovereignty for dinner, instead of vegetables.

User avatar
sTeamTraen
After Pie
Posts: 2544
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:24 pm
Location: Palma de Mallorca, Spain

Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by sTeamTraen » Wed Jan 31, 2024 4:49 pm

headshot wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2024 10:13 am
Andrea Leadsom has said today that “Brexit checks ‘price you pay for being a sovereign state again’”

“Andrea Leadsom says businesses experiencing ‘some friction’ should ‘adapt’ to changes in trade rules”

I hope you all enjoy fresh sovereignty for dinner, instead of vegetables.
Well, at least that's vaguely honest, compared to "Nothing will change" and "We will have an even better deal after Brexit than before". People can decide if they want to continue with that friction. If they don't, they can vote for the Labour party, who have promised to take the UK back into the SM and CU at the earliest oh wait
Something something hammer something something nail

IvanV
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2585
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 11:12 am

Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by IvanV » Wed Jan 31, 2024 8:44 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2024 4:49 pm
headshot wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2024 10:13 am
Andrea Leadsom has said today that “Brexit checks ‘price you pay for being a sovereign state again’”

“Andrea Leadsom says businesses experiencing ‘some friction’ should ‘adapt’ to changes in trade rules”

I hope you all enjoy fresh sovereignty for dinner, instead of vegetables.
Well, at least that's vaguely honest, compared to "Nothing will change" and "We will have an even better deal after Brexit than before". People can decide if they want to continue with that friction. If they don't, they can vote for the Labour party, who have promised to take the UK back into the SM and CU at the earliest oh wait
I think she was kind of thinking that many would believe that any price is worth paying for retrieving sovereignty. And it plays into a myth that being in the EU we entirely lost our sovereignty.

Whereas the reality is that signing up to the Treaty of Rome was just one of 100+ treaties we have signed up to that limit our sovereignty to decide things for ourselves to some degree. Probably it reduced it more than any of the others, but still we could decide many things for ourselves - Westminster and the devolved administrations were still very busy. And apparently with all the rest of those treaties, the reduction in sovereignty is worth the benefits, for we aren't proposing to leave any of them. Well there are occasional complaints about the ECHR by some of them, but that's the only one.

Lew Dolby
Catbabel
Posts: 647
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:59 pm
Location: Shropshire - Welsh Borders

Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Lew Dolby » Wed Jan 31, 2024 9:14 pm

Surely, the bigger loss of sovreignty is signing up to trade deals that allow secret courts, run by and for private companies to meet behind closed doors to stop governments passing laws, or if they do, to get compensation if those laws impact on their profits.

Never hear the Tories complaining about them.
WOULD CUSTOMERS PLEASE REFRAIN FROM SITTING ON THE COUNTER BY THE BACON SLICER - AS WE'RE GETTING A LITTLE BEHIND IN OUR ORDERS.

User avatar
bjn
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2893
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by bjn » Thu Feb 01, 2024 8:50 am

Lew Dolby wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2024 9:14 pm
Surely, the bigger loss of sovreignty is signing up to trade deals that allow secret courts, run by and for private companies to meet behind closed doors to stop governments passing laws, or if they do, to get compensation if those laws impact on their profits.

Never hear the Tories complaining about them.
This. In spades.

User avatar
sTeamTraen
After Pie
Posts: 2544
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:24 pm
Location: Palma de Mallorca, Spain

Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by sTeamTraen » Fri Feb 02, 2024 4:09 pm

IvanV wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2024 8:44 pm
I think she was kind of thinking that many would believe that any price is worth paying for retrieving sovereignty. And it plays into a myth that being in the EU we entirely lost our sovereignty.
There is a quite powerful message from the anti-EU lobby that "EU law has primacy over UK law". This is partly true, and the inferred consequences can readily appeal to low-information people of with only moderate mistrust of furriners.

The answer is of course (1) only in those areas where the member states have devolved power to the EU[*], (2) only with either qualified majority voting or in some cases unanimity from the Council, and (3) the laws they make tend to be very dull indeed. However, the statement on its own, and without those qualifications, makes it sound like Ursula von der Leyen can wake up one morning and ban Marmite or something, and the explanation of the truth takes too long for many of the aforementioned low-information people.

[*] I remember during Covid seeing several Leave-minded people shouting about how the EU should to more to take charge of public health across the member states. When it was pointed out to them that the EU would probably love to do this but public health was a devolved matter, these people seemed remarkably keen for sovereignty to be almost forcibly removed from the member states. Similar debates can be seen among pro-Ukraine but EU-skeptical people of my acquaintance about how the EU should do more on defence, when I know that many of them voted Leave at least partly to avoid "the coming EU Army".
Something something hammer something something nail

IvanV
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2585
Joined: Mon May 17, 2021 11:12 am

Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by IvanV » Fri Feb 02, 2024 5:52 pm

sTeamTraen wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2024 4:09 pm
I remember during Covid seeing several Leave-minded people shouting about how the EU should to more to take charge of public health across the member states. When it was pointed out to them that the EU would probably love to do this but public health was a devolved matter, these people seemed remarkably keen for sovereignty to be almost forcibly removed from the member states. Similar debates can be seen among pro-Ukraine but EU-skeptical people of my acquaintance about how the EU should do more on defence, when I know that many of them voted Leave at least partly to avoid "the coming EU Army".
That type of highly inconsistent thinking was certainly much identified among leave voters at the time of the referendum too.

As you go further towards the political extremes in either direction, or religious extremes, then to maintain such positions it becomes increasingly necessary to hold multiple inconsistent points of view simultaneously. Indeed, demonstrably holding plainly false or inconsistent points of view is often an important badge of fidelity to such causes.

I remember some 25 or 30 years ago, when "neo-conservatism" was a relatively novel term in Britain, asking an American what it meant. They told me that neo-conservatives are people who believe stuff regardless of the evidence. I found this odd at the time. Some of these neo-conservatives didn't seem quite that stupid, foolishly thinking that you had to be really stupid to believe stuff regardless of the evidence. As time went on, it became clear I had been given a very accurate definition. But it is also true of harder left people too, religious people, etc. In fact, believing stuff regardless of the evidence is probably a common phenomenon in just about all of us, to some degree. None of us like having our preconceptions challenged.

User avatar
Sciolus
Dorkwood
Posts: 1308
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:42 pm

Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Sciolus » Fri Feb 02, 2024 9:30 pm

IvanV wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2024 5:52 pm
As you go further towards the political extremes in either direction, or religious extremes, then to maintain such positions it becomes increasingly necessary to hold multiple inconsistent points of view simultaneously. Indeed, demonstrably holding plainly false or inconsistent points of view is often an important badge of fidelity to such causes.

I remember some 25 or 30 years ago, when "neo-conservatism" was a relatively novel term in Britain, asking an American what it meant. They told me that neo-conservatives are people who believe stuff regardless of the evidence. I found this odd at the time. Some of these neo-conservatives didn't seem quite that stupid, foolishly thinking that you had to be really stupid to believe stuff regardless of the evidence. As time went on, it became clear I had been given a very accurate definition. But it is also true of harder left people too, religious people, etc. In fact, believing stuff regardless of the evidence is probably a common phenomenon in just about all of us, to some degree. None of us like having our preconceptions challenged.
The capacity for doublethink is, I believe, deeply wired into the human brain. For instance, I know I will die one day, but I don't believe it. I believe that my family are better, more valuable and more important than other people, but I know that isn't actually true. I know I should eat better and exercise more, but I don't believe it. I believe that good-looking people are better people, but again I know that isn't true.

Some of these examples have obvious evolutionary benefits. Others are psychological biases which may have benefits or may be an unfortunate emergent property of our complex brains. But virtually everyone shares them.

The problem, needless to say, is when people allow this doublethink to spread, embrace their fantasies, and subjugate their rational minds when making decisions that affect others.

User avatar
sTeamTraen
After Pie
Posts: 2544
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:24 pm
Location: Palma de Mallorca, Spain

Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by sTeamTraen » Sat Feb 03, 2024 11:31 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2024 9:30 pm
The capacity for doublethink is, I believe, deeply wired into the human brain. For instance, I know I will die one day, but I don't believe it. I believe that my family are better, more valuable and more important than other people, but I know that isn't actually true. I know I should eat better and exercise more, but I don't believe it. I believe that good-looking people are better people, but again I know that isn't true.

Some of these examples have obvious evolutionary benefits. Others are psychological biases which may have benefits or may be an unfortunate emergent property of our complex brains. But virtually everyone shares them.

The problem, needless to say, is when people allow this doublethink to spread, embrace their fantasies, and subjugate their rational minds when making decisions that affect others.
Hmmm. Maybe this is semantics, but for my part, I both know and believe (or know to be untrue and don't believe) most of those things. I would describe my doublethink as "sometimes I behave as if I don't know/believe them", which I think is quite different.
Something something hammer something something nail

Beaker
Stargoon
Posts: 93
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:28 pm

Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Beaker » Sun Feb 04, 2024 9:04 pm

So we sold some honey to the Saudis, and about four pallets of drugs to Columbia. Really worth it taking a month longer to get our products into the EU than it used to.

Post Reply