Poor Brexit outcomes

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FairySmall
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by FairySmall » Sat May 21, 2022 4:42 pm

Yup, we got a formal email saying that our Horizon Europe grant has been cancelled, just as it was about to start. Alongside a more personal email from our contact at the European Commission saying how sorry he was that it had to be like this (I wanted to reply saying it wasn't his fault we had a f*cking stupid government).

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun May 22, 2022 12:28 pm

Seasonal worker shortages of up to 75 per cent have been reported in some parts of the UK, sparking fears there will not be enough labour available to pick crops this year, according to The Grocer .

The Mail also picked up on the story and wrote: “The impacts of Brexit, with a large number of seasonal crop pickers traditionally coming from the EU, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and delays in issuing temporary visas have been blamed.”
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/ ... or-323366/
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Martin Y
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Martin Y » Tue May 24, 2022 7:59 am

Perhaps there's still a way to get British people to pick veg, if we can develop a method of paying them in gas.

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shpalman
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by shpalman » Tue May 24, 2022 9:30 am

Martin Y wrote:
Tue May 24, 2022 7:59 am
Perhaps there's still a way to get British people to pick veg, if we can develop a method of paying them in gas.
Just eat the veg.
molto tricky

FlammableFlower
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by FlammableFlower » Wed May 25, 2022 9:36 am

Not exactly a poor Brexit outcome, but it's Rees-Mogg and Zahawi and their spectacular ability to believe that whatever they want is perfectly sensible and should happen even if reality doesn't agree, which to my mind sums up Brexit...:

Forcing civil servants not to work from home has unintended consequences...

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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed May 25, 2022 9:43 am

Think I've identified the problem:
Cabinet Office minister Jacob Rees-Mogg wrote to colleagues urging them to send a “clear message” to the civil service about returning, and Mr Zahawi told MPs he expected “office use to return to normality pre the pandemic”.

Following the intervention, staff were summoned to a virtual meeting, Schools Week reports. The department’s top civil servant, permanent secretary Susan Acland-Hood, was joined by ministers to tell officials to work 80 per cent of their week in the office.

However, even before the pandemic the DfE only had an occupancy rate of 60 to 70 per cent because of the department’s flexible working policy.
Article sounds like it's blaming Acland-Hood for the ballsup.
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Little waster
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Little waster » Wed May 25, 2022 10:02 am

FlammableFlower wrote:
Wed May 25, 2022 9:36 am
Not exactly a poor Brexit outcome, but it's Rees-Mogg and Zahawi and their spectacular ability to believe that whatever they want is perfectly sensible and should happen even if reality doesn't agree, which to my mind sums up Brexit...:

Forcing civil servants not to work from home has unintended consequences...
And quietly smouldering in the corner over there you can see the charred remains of that whelk stall Rees-Mogg and Zahawi once tried to run that one afternoon.
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Little waster » Wed May 25, 2022 11:12 pm

Great news!

A major nation has publicly supported the UK's stance over the NIP!

It is ... *checks notes* ... Turkey ... *scrolls down a bit* ... who are also annoyed at the US ... *reads on* ... over Turkey's much-criticised support of Russia.

Rent-a-gob Farage welcomed the support of his fellow far-right authoritarian stating "this is exactly what I hoped would happen. Finally we've turned our back on European democracy and embraced our true allies, mass-murdering, expansionist fascists. I think you'll find it's exactly what our grandparents sacrifices in WW2 were all about. We're after the "international bankers" next ... you know ... *nudge-nudge* ... the ones who don't like bacon, if you know what I mean. *wink-wink*".
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Woodchopper
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Woodchopper » Thu May 26, 2022 1:32 pm

UK Risks Car Collapse as Jaguar Land Rover Looks Elsewhere for Batteries
Britain’s biggest auto manufacturer is in talks with two suppliers about a range of EVs it may assemble in Slovakia.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... loomberguk

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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Brightonian » Sun Jun 05, 2022 8:39 pm

Daniel Hannan wrote:Staying in the Single Market ... would have saved us a lot of trouble.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status ... 8440887296

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Little waster
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Little waster » Mon Jun 06, 2022 7:29 am

Brightonian wrote:
Sun Jun 05, 2022 8:39 pm
Daniel Hannan wrote:Staying in the Single Market ... would have saved us a lot of trouble.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status ... 8440887296
It's ok the comments assure me that Leaving the Single Market isn't the fault of the Leavers who formulated a Hard Brexit, promoted a Hard Brexit, campaigned for a Hard Brexit, won an election on a Hard Brexit platform, legislated for a Hard Brexit, voted for a Hard Brexit and then implemented a Hard Brexit.

No it's the fault of the Remainers who didn't want any form of Brexit at all.

I'm surprised they don't pull a muscle in their brains with that level of mental gymnastics.

How's the saying go ... "You won, get over it".
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shpalman
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by shpalman » Mon Jun 06, 2022 7:38 am

So much for "we hold all the cards."

Boris Johnson’s former Brexit negotiator David Frost has said the “weakness” of the UK’s position shaped the negotiations for the Northern Ireland protocol
Frost said the deal he negotiated while in Johnson’s government would have run smoothly only if it had never been fully applied by the EU.
molto tricky

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bjn
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by bjn » Mon Jun 06, 2022 10:02 am

shpalman wrote:
Mon Jun 06, 2022 7:38 am
So much for "we hold all the cards."

Boris Johnson’s former Brexit negotiator David Frost has said the “weakness” of the UK’s position shaped the negotiations for the Northern Ireland protocol
Frost said the deal he negotiated while in Johnson’s government would have run smoothly only if it had never been fully applied by the EU.
I can't formulate a coherent response that would convey my anger and incredulity at the sheer stupidity of that statement. 'Fingers crossed' doesn't cut it as a tactic for grown ups.


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Woodchopper
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:23 am

Some commentary from the FT. Can be summed up in graphs:
UK Business investment.jpg
UK Business investment.jpg (86.31 KiB) Viewed 881 times
There was obviously a pandemic effect, but other countries have rebounded and started from a higher level.

Several countries business investment.jpg
Several countries business investment.jpg (121.85 KiB) Viewed 881 times
business investment, seen by Johnson and Sunak as the panacea to a poor growth rate, trails other industrialised countries, in spite of lavish Treasury tax breaks to try to drive it up. Next year, according to the OECD think-tank, the UK will have the lowest growth in the G20, apart from sanctioned Russia.

The Office for Budget Responsibility, the official British forecaster, has seen no reason to change its prediction, first made in March 2020, that Brexit would ultimately reduce productivity and UK gross domestic product by 4 per cent compared with a world where the country remained inside the EU. It says that a little over half of that damage has yet to occur.

That level of decline, worth about £100bn a year in lost output, would result in lost revenues for the Treasury of roughly £40bn a year. That is £40bn that might have been available to the beleaguered Johnson for the radical tax cuts demanded by the Tory right — the equivalent of 6p off the 20p in the pound basic rate of income tax.

[...]

In the first quarter of 2022, real business investment was 9.4 per cent lower than in the second quarter of 2016. That fall was mostly due to Covid, but it had flatlined since the referendum, ending a period of growth since 2010 and falling well short of the performance of other G7 countries.

Weak investment is a particular worry for Sunak, who sees business investment as the route to greater prosperity. Before departing the BoE in 2020, Carney told a House of Lords Committee that Brexit uncertainty was holding back business investment. Worse, he said, business planning for various Brexit scenarios was taking up a lot of management effort. “Time spent on contingency planning is time not spent on strategic initiatives,” he said.

Since then, negative perceptions of the UK have continued among business with the chancellor finding he had little bang for his £25bn buck of super deductions in corporation tax to encourage capital spending. As Bailey told MPs last month, the super-deductor was “not at the moment having the impact that was expected”.

UK EU trade relationships.jpg
UK EU trade relationships.jpg (104.38 KiB) Viewed 881 times
While the UK was still in the EU and during the Brexit “transition phase”, there were no significant effects on trade flows. But this has changed since stricter border controls were introduced at the start of 2021, imposing no tariffs, but significant checks and controls at the formerly frictionless border.
Economists have used this point in time to contrast how the UK’s trade performance compares with those of other countries before and after the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement’s imposition. The results have been increasingly ugly, especially for small companies trading with Europe.

Red tape caused a “steep decline” in the number of trading relationships after January 2021, according to a study by the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics. The number of buyer-seller relationships fell by almost one-third, it found.

The same group found food prices had risen as a result of Brexit. Comparing the prices of imported food such as pork, tomatoes and jam, which predominantly came from the EU, with those that came from further afield such as tuna and pineapples, it found a substantial Brexit effect. “Brexit increased average food prices by about 6 per cent over 2020 and 2021,” according to the research.

Summing up the effects on trade in which imports from the EU have fallen while exports have not risen, Adam Posen, head of the Peterson Institute of International Economics, says “everybody else sees a recovery in trade following Covid and the UK sits flat”.
https://www.ft.com/content/7a209a34-7d9 ... 02d4214764
https://www.ft.com/content/74eafecd-5f7 ... b5c1032780

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Bird on a Fire » Wed Jun 22, 2022 6:03 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Jun 22, 2022 8:23 am
Some commentary from the FT. Can be summed up in graphs:

UK Business investment.jpg
That's a very "interesting" trend line. I'd love to know the equation used to fit it, because it looks very much like they just connected Q2 2009 to Q2 2016 and ignored all the points in the middle.
Last edited by Bird on a Fire on Wed Jun 22, 2022 6:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Moved this and the preceding post from "Brexit benefits"
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Woodchopper
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:44 pm

The UK’s trade performance this year fell to its worst level since records began, heaping more pressure on sterling in international currency markets.

The country’s current account deficit was calculated at 8.3 per cent of gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2022, a deterioration from an average of 2.6 per cent across all of 2021.

It was the worst figure on record since quarterly balance of payments data was first published in 1955.

The weak performance of UK exports and a surge in imports highlight the economic effects of Brexit. The figures tally with academic studies that show a decline in exports since 2021, when the UK left the EU single market and new border controls were introduced.

The Office for National Statistics warned that the figures for the first quarter of 2022 were “subject to higher levels of uncertainty than normal”. It added that it had developed a new system based on customs records to increase accuracy.

Even when relatively volatile goods such as gold and other precious metals were excluded, the current account deficit still rose from an average of 2.4 per cent of GDP in 2021 to 7.1 per cent in the first quarter of this year.

The gaping current account deficit largely reflects a record imbalance of imports and exports. However, there were also deficits in investment income and transfers of money between countries.

The ONS said it was investigating a big rise in imports that it had recorded along with foreign direct investment and advised caution on interpreting the quality of the data.

Paul Dales, chief economist at Capital Economics, said the most noteworthy element in the figures was a 4.4 per cent fall in real exports and a 10.4 per cent leap in real imports.

“At the start of this year, the ONS started to measure imports between the UK and the EU in a slightly different way.” This resulted in a “large step change upwards”, he said, adding that the figures were “really hard to interpret”.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said a surge in energy prices was the main cause of the country’s difficulties.

He echoed former Bank of England governor Mark Carney, who warned repeatedly after the Brexit referendum that the value of the pound depended on the “kindness of strangers”.

“The adverse consequences of the UK dependence on external finance that stems from the large current account deficit have been clear over the past month, with sterling depreciating sharply as global investors have collectively shunned risky assets,” said Tombs.

The pound, which was stable in currency markets on Thursday morning, has lost more than 10 per cent of its value against the US dollar over the past year, while remaining broadly stable against the euro.
https://www.ft.com/content/a31b4b8e-f9f ... 32f194d05a

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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Allo V Psycho » Fri Jul 01, 2022 5:17 pm

Good quote from the i
As Adam Posen, the president of the influential Peterson Institute for International Economics, says, this is the “first time in world history when a nation has declared a trade war on itself”
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ca ... a69057d78c

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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by FlammableFlower » Fri Jul 01, 2022 6:03 pm

That is good

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shpalman
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by shpalman » Sat Jul 02, 2022 4:25 pm

molto tricky

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Jul 02, 2022 5:25 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Jul 02, 2022 4:25 pm
Roaming charges coming back
I still use an O2 PAYG SIM for data, because I barely use any and £10 lasts me months. I'll be mildly peeved if I have to upgrade my €5/month deal here to get more data.

More economic hardship from brexit :(
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Beaker » Fri Jul 22, 2022 9:46 am

Apparently it’s busy on the roads round Dover. Project Fear predicted this would happen, but clearly it’s the fault of the French for not putting in enough capacity to do their bureaucratic checks :roll:

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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Trinucleus » Sat Jul 23, 2022 10:33 am

Beaker wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 9:46 am
Apparently it’s busy on the roads round Dover. Project Fear predicted this would happen, but clearly it’s the fault of the French for not putting in enough capacity to do their bureaucratic checks :roll:
Yes, it's all the fault of the French https://archive.ph/2020.12.16-135817/ht ... 41256db4df

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Little waster
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Little waster » Sat Jul 23, 2022 1:41 pm

Beaker wrote:
Fri Jul 22, 2022 9:46 am
Apparently it’s busy on the roads round Dover. Project Fear predicted this would happen, but clearly it’s the fault of the French for not putting in enough capacity to do their bureaucratic checks :roll:
Leave apparently doesn't mean Leaving.
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What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us.
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Cardinal Fang
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Re: Poor Brexit outcomes

Post by Cardinal Fang » Sat Jul 23, 2022 1:46 pm

The New European had an article in it last week that summed up everything pretty much perfectly: The Northern Ireland Protocol is working. Naturally, the UK government is trying to destroy it
Image

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