Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

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Woodchopper
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Woodchopper » Thu May 12, 2022 7:22 am

Ivan, I agree. And as far as surveys go there is a majority of the adult population in favour of freedom to choose in only 20 states. See the link up thread.

As far as I can tell in only 14 states are democrats in control of both houses in the legislature and the governor is a democrat.

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dyqik
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by dyqik » Thu May 12, 2022 12:45 pm

IvanV wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 7:03 am
Bewildered wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 5:57 am
I was more thinking of passing an amendment to the constitution with republicans support. i.e. say that you will pack the court if they don’t support the amendment.
Amendments to the constitution have to be ratified by 38 individual states, with a time limit on that. You might get away with some kind of a deal in the house and senate, but you'd never get the states to go along with that. Whilst quite a few amendments were made and ratified during the 20th century, the last to pass the house and senate, the 26th, was in 1971. There is also a 27th amendment, but that passed the house and senate in the 18th century, and was enabled to be ratified 200 years later as it was discovered that the usual time limit didn't apply.

The unratified Equal Rights Amendment, passed by the house and senate in 1971-72 got only 35 state ratifications within the 1979 time-limit. The 38th ratification was achieved only just recently, but by then some 30 years too late, and its late "ratification" by a few states were a gesture. The campaign against ratification at the time by what we would now call "tea party" republicans - especially coordinated Phyllis Schlafly - could be seen as the modern origin of the activist republican right, later renewed in the form of the "tea party".

Since then it has been recognised as basically impossible to get any amendment to the constitution that would have a sufficient grass roots opposition at state level. And that is why there has been none since.
Minor point, but the time limit is only imposed by Congress when the amendment is put forward. It doesn't have to be imposed by Congress, and the time limit can be overridden later, as has been proposed for the ERA.

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Stephanie
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Stephanie » Thu May 12, 2022 12:57 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 10:25 am
Personally I reckon only one opinion is important before the decision to have an abortion, and it isn't that of a doctor.
yep
"I got a flu virus named after me 'cause I kissed a bat on a dare."

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Bewildered » Thu May 12, 2022 1:17 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 7:22 am
Ivan, I agree. And as far as surveys go there is a majority of the adult population in favour of freedom to choose in only 20 states. See the link up thread.

As far as I can tell in only 14 states are democrats in control of both houses in the legislature and the governor is a democrat.
I knew it was hard and hadn’t happened in an age, but I didn’t know (or remember) it had to be ratified in all states. I was thinking it was just more like super majorities in both houses. So yes what Ivan says does make it very tricky, if not impossible.

But I think at least you woodchopper misunderstood my suggestion. I wasn’t suggesting they pass an amendment to explicitly protect womens right to choose or to protect privacy in general more strongly. That would be ideal if possible but it’s obviously not since the republicans are dead against it.

I was responding to Ivan’s concern about lasting long term harm to US democracy from packing the house and asking if the democrats aren’t going to do it anyway on the grounds that it’s dangerous, shouldn’t they be trying to make sure some evil bastards republicans can’t do it in the future. I was imagining the republicans might find the threat of packing the court to over turn this coupled with their comfort with the general make up of the court which without packing will likely last a long time might make them amenable to this. Note this was specifically a proposition to Ivan and anyone who agrees with him that packing the court should never be done because it’s so dangerous. If you don’t want to do it now because you don’t have the numbers and hope to try again if the dems do even better another time then obv this question is irrelevant.

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dyqik
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by dyqik » Thu May 12, 2022 2:01 pm

Bewildered wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 1:17 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 7:22 am
Ivan, I agree. And as far as surveys go there is a majority of the adult population in favour of freedom to choose in only 20 states. See the link up thread.

As far as I can tell in only 14 states are democrats in control of both houses in the legislature and the governor is a democrat.
I knew it was hard and hadn’t happened in an age, but I didn’t know (or remember) it had to be ratified in all states. I was thinking it was just more like super majorities in both houses. So yes what Ivan says does make it very tricky, if not impossible.
It's a super majority of states that have to ratify it - 3/4 of the States, so 38 out of 50. It also needs a 2/3 supermajority in the House and Senate to get the Amendment proposed and to send it to the states for ratification (or 2/3 of States to request a convention to propose an amendment for ratification, which has never happened).

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by dyqik » Thu May 12, 2022 2:03 pm

Bewildered wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 1:17 pm
But I think at least you woodchopper misunderstood my suggestion. I wasn’t suggesting they pass an amendment to explicitly protect womens right to choose or to protect privacy in general more strongly. That would be ideal if possible but it’s obviously not since the republicans are dead against it.
I do think a proposal for an Amendment to give the right to privacy could be a pretty powerful political weapon - it would require Republicans, who run on limited government and protecting people from the government, to vote against protecting people from the government.

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Opti
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Opti » Thu May 12, 2022 2:15 pm

Time for a big fat one.

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