Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by lpm » Tue May 03, 2022 3:03 pm

IvanV wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 2:50 pm
Because whatever the liberals do, the conservatives will throw back in their faces and much worse, as soon as they can.
The conservatives will throw it in their faces and much worse, as soon as they can, if the liberals do nothing as well.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by monkey » Tue May 03, 2022 3:36 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 3:03 pm
IvanV wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 2:50 pm
Because whatever the liberals do, the conservatives will throw back in their faces and much worse, as soon as they can.
The conservatives will throw it in their faces and much worse, as soon as they can, if the liberals do nothing as well.

"You're only making it worse for yourself! Making it worse? How can it be worse? Jehovah! Jehovah!"
The Democrats already use the same tools as the Republicans - political choices of judges, gerrymandering, the filibuster. All of it. The Republicans are just better at it.

The whole of the USian political system is broken, but also seemingly designed not to be fixed.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by WFJ » Tue May 03, 2022 3:57 pm

monkey wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 3:36 pm

The whole of the USian political system is broken, but also seemingly designed not to be fixed.
That's what happens when you treat the thoughts of a bunch of rich 18th Century racist landowners as a sacred text carved in stone by wise prophets.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by dyqik » Tue May 03, 2022 4:11 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 3:03 pm
IvanV wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 2:50 pm
Because whatever the liberals do, the conservatives will throw back in their faces and much worse, as soon as they can.
The conservatives will throw it in their faces and much worse, as soon as they can, if the liberals do nothing as well.

"You're only making it worse for yourself! Making it worse? How can it be worse? Jehovah! Jehovah!"
Precisely this. They will declare themselves victims of oppression just as soon as anyone protests their exercise of state power in support of their religious aims.

And international protests at their actions will also be used to decry the globalist (i.e. Jewish) attempts to oppress their religion.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by tom p » Tue May 03, 2022 4:30 pm

IvanV wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 2:50 pm
dyqik wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 12:14 pm
The court has been packed before, and is essentially packed now, as are the lower courts. There is no Rubicon to cross here.
OK, so you think this isn't crossing a Rubicon. So that explains why you think that the other side are utterly not going to play by the rules anyway. But I think that raising the bar for misbehaviour will result in them raising it further.
The court was packed the moment McConnell refused to hear Obama's nomination for SCOTUS member.
It's now 6-3. Not packed in numbers, but in partiality.
The only way to reverse it is to do as the republicans do. If it ends up in a ludicrous situation of each side packing the court so it ends up with 101 members, or some other ludicrously high number, & thus it forces the merkins to do something about it, then good; but doing nothing & letting the republicans do what they want is pathetic cowardice.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Bewildered » Tue May 03, 2022 5:37 pm

IvanV wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 2:50 pm
dyqik wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 12:14 pm
The court has been packed before, and is essentially packed now, as are the lower courts. There is no Rubicon to cross here.
OK, so you think this isn't crossing a Rubicon. So that explains why you think that the other side are utterly not going to play by the rules anyway. But I think that raising the bar for misbehaviour will result in them raising it further.

You are right that the supreme court has been packed before. And there is much else wrong in US jurisprudence. But the supreme court has not been packed legislatively for a long time, only by taking advantage when it is your turn to choose a justice, which both sides do. So they took a bit more than is usually taken when the Gorsuch case arose. But that was a small escalation. I think the holding back from legislative packing in 1937, when Roosevelt had his New Deal held up by the court on very flimsy grounds, suggests that there is now a long term truce on not packing the court legislatively.

Abortion is a bigger issue for conservative voters than liberal voters. Do not forget that. It is often the biggest thing that determines how they vote, whereas it rarely is for liberals. If now the liberals pack the court by legislatively, the conservatives will in turn will have absolutely no compunction about packing the court in the same way, or even worse, to ensure the overturning of it. Because it matters big time to them. And then they'll just splurge all their other terrible stuff because all of a sudden they will think that they can do that.

Ultimately if we advocate democracy, we have to have some faith in voters. Cancelling RvW sends this back to state legislatures. Half of them have already liberalised abortion voluntarily. The others remain appalled 60 years later that this was ever foisted on them involutarily, and their first instinct is to put the clock back. Most other electorates in the world have eventually seen the sense in permitting abortion, even in many somewhat less than perfect democracies like Argentina. Even in conservative catholic countries. Perhaps the individual US states aren't so exceptional that won't happen there too. I think that is a better chance for the US to grow up politically than raising the war of anti-democratic methods. Because whatever the liberals do, the conservatives will throw back in their faces and much worse, as soon as they can.
I don’t know who is right here but I have a few questions

1) if you think court packing opens Pandora’s box, how do you see it escalating? Are there any examples of this box being opened and things going crazy ? I am trying to imagine the outcome, the idea is any time one party has the presidency and both houses they would pack the court, but can it really grow indefinitely?

2j if you won’t do it, might it be wise to actually try to pass legislation to stop it being done in future? I am not sure the republicans will be held back by the democrats not doing it now honestly, and while they already have control and what they have been aiming for for years, you also have the current internal fight in the Republican Party. Is it ridiculous to imagine that at some point trump will want judges who will back him on election results…

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Stranger Mouse » Tue May 03, 2022 5:47 pm

Jesus, his guy gets someone whooping when he says he doesn’t want an exception to protect the life of the mother https://twitter.com/dananessel/status/1 ... am1W_9-XbQ
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by EACLucifer » Tue May 03, 2022 6:49 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 5:47 pm
Jesus, his guy gets someone whooping when he says he doesn’t want an exception to protect the life of the mother https://twitter.com/dananessel/status/1 ... am1W_9-XbQ
One American politician recently described aborting ectopic pregnancies - which cannot ever lead to a child being born but can kill if left unadressed - as murder, in case anyone's still wondering about the importance of secularism.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by temptar » Tue May 03, 2022 6:55 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 6:49 pm
Stranger Mouse wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 5:47 pm
Jesus, his guy gets someone whooping when he says he doesn’t want an exception to protect the life of the mother https://twitter.com/dananessel/status/1 ... am1W_9-XbQ
One American politician recently described aborting ectopic pregnancies - which cannot ever lead to a child being born but can kill if left unadressed - as murder, in case anyone's still wondering about the importance of secularism.
I would say that education is the issue here.

Roe versus Wade was settled on the implicit right to privacy. Striking it down has implications far beyond abortion.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by EACLucifer » Tue May 03, 2022 6:57 pm

temptar wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 6:55 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 6:49 pm
Stranger Mouse wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 5:47 pm
Jesus, his guy gets someone whooping when he says he doesn’t want an exception to protect the life of the mother https://twitter.com/dananessel/status/1 ... am1W_9-XbQ
One American politician recently described aborting ectopic pregnancies - which cannot ever lead to a child being born but can kill if left unadressed - as murder, in case anyone's still wondering about the importance of secularism.
I would say that education is the issue here.

Roe versus Wade was settled on the implicit right to privacy. Striking it down has implications far beyond abortion.
Agreed, but education can only go so far - I have met fundamentalists so absolutist in their views that they oppose aborting ectopic pregnancies despite knowing what they are and what they do.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by dyqik » Tue May 03, 2022 7:03 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 6:57 pm
temptar wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 6:55 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 6:49 pm


One American politician recently described aborting ectopic pregnancies - which cannot ever lead to a child being born but can kill if left unadressed - as murder, in case anyone's still wondering about the importance of secularism.
I would say that education is the issue here.

Roe versus Wade was settled on the implicit right to privacy. Striking it down has implications far beyond abortion.
Agreed, but education can only go so far - I have met fundamentalists so absolutist in their views that they oppose aborting ectopic pregnancies despite knowing what they are and what they do.
Yes, there are evil people out there, but at least some of the rabid support for overturning Roe v Wade is based on an ethical position about the status of a fetus that does not extend to banning contraception, interracial marriage, or even gay marriage.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Woodchopper » Wed May 04, 2022 2:54 am

Leaked draft confirmed as authentic: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/03/supreme ... -leak.html

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Woodchopper » Wed May 04, 2022 2:59 am

I keep seeing takes on social media about how the left is freaking out like a bunch of hysterical children while the right just stoically carries on whenever it has a setback.

Which completely fail to acknowledge the 6 January 2021 insurrection after Trump lost.

Which incidentally was the actual rubicon which was crossed. The insurrection it’s self, and more importantly the failure of Republican politicians to unequivocally condemn it later and assert that Trump did lose the vote.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Woodchopper » Wed May 04, 2022 7:21 am

Somewhat depressing take by David Allen Green: https://davidallengreen.com/2022/05/why ... -abortion/

tl;dr the original Roe v Wade judgement was rather flimsy as it was based upon " a general constitutional right of privacy that also is not expressly mentioned" in the constitution. If passed the judgement could allow the Supreme Court to strike down subsequent US federal legislation codifying abortion rights. The remedy would be an amendment to the constitution, which would be very difficult.

As I think dyqik mentioned earlier IMHO removing a general right to privacy has far wider ramifications.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by EACLucifer » Wed May 04, 2022 8:10 am

Unfortunately, discussion of expanding the court right now to counter this is a bit like talking about whether or not Ukraine should nuke the invading Russians - desirable or not the capability just isn't there, and the discussion* alone could prove counterproductive.


*Discussion by politicians, that is, not on places like here

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by IvanV » Wed May 04, 2022 8:55 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 8:10 am
Unfortunately, discussion of expanding the court right now to counter this is a bit like talking about whether or not Ukraine should nuke the invading Russians - desirable or not the capability just isn't there, and the discussion* alone could prove counterproductive.
Doubtless why Pelosi said she has no plan to bring it before the house.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Aoui » Wed May 04, 2022 9:43 am

My understanding is that this is about the 14th amendment more than anything. If they can go back on this, they can go back on other rights. One goes and they all fall soon enough. That's the real point. Yes, abortion is the one they are using because it's the easiest for them. I'm totally pro-choice. But I just don't see this as actually being about abortion. This is how they allow states to take away voting rights (which they are already doing, but this will be the nail in the coffin...), get rid of any rights that minorities have, get rid of rights for workers, get rid of rights for lgbtq etc.... So, as horrified as I am by this anti-abortion, misogynistic evil crap....it's even worse than that. Remember, the gerrymandering is so off the charts now that it's going to be next to impossible to reverse this. It's not like I didn't know this was coming. I've been waiting for this to happen (actually, didn't figure it'd leak first...). Still felt like a punch in face or the uterus or whichever. I'm from OK and TX. I know what some of these backassward types are like and they scare the f.ck out of me. They want power and use religion to get it.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Chris Preston » Wed May 04, 2022 9:43 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 8:10 am
Unfortunately, discussion of expanding the court right now to counter this is a bit like talking about whether or not Ukraine should nuke the invading Russians - desirable or not the capability just isn't there, and the discussion* alone could prove counterproductive.


*Discussion by politicians, that is, not on places like here
This was a point I was going to make. The Democrats do not really have the numbers in the senate. Manchin and Sinema at least are not going to vote to expand SCOTUS bench.

I think there is an argument to expand the bench, with only 9 Justices, the court is overworked and some cases languish for longer than they should. For comparison, Australia has 7 Justices on its High Court. Australia also makes the Justices retire at age 70. However, that argument to increase the size of the bench needs to be made on its merits, not as a means of undoing decisions.
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Chris Preston » Wed May 04, 2022 10:08 am

Aoui wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 9:43 am
My understanding is that this is about the 14th amendment more than anything. If they can go back on this, they can go back on other rights. One goes and they all fall soon enough. That's the real point. Yes, abortion is the one they are using because it's the easiest for them. I'm totally pro-choice. But I just don't see this as actually being about abortion. This is how they allow states to take away voting rights (which they are already doing, but this will be the nail in the coffin...), get rid of any rights that minorities have, get rid of rights for workers, get rid of rights for lgbtq etc.... So, as horrified as I am by this anti-abortion, misogynistic evil crap....it's even worse than that. Remember, the gerrymandering is so off the charts now that it's going to be next to impossible to reverse this. It's not like I didn't know this was coming. I've been waiting for this to happen (actually, didn't figure it'd leak first...). Still felt like a punch in face or the uterus or whichever. I'm from OK and TX. I know what some of these backassward types are like and they scare the f.ck out of me. They want power and use religion to get it.
It is a last ditch attempt by what is fast becoming a minority to hold onto power. It has been clear in the last two Presidential elections that Texas is moving towards a purple state. Once it tips, it will be all over for the GOP, given their current pandering to the minority Christian Evangelist, racist and misogynist voter blocks. Demographic changes in populations can only be held back so long by gerrymandering. Colorado has moved from a solid Red state (except when Ross Perot split the vote) to a state that will not vote for the GOP again in their current guise. This is not because Colorado is a hotbed of Marxists, but because the GOP has abandoned the centre for the far right. That only works long term if you get rid of free elections.

The downside is this is going to take some time and it is going to be more and more divisive as the GOP struggles to hold on to power. I would not be at all surprised if one or more of the far-right militias attempts a real coup, given the alternative universe they live in.
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Aoui » Wed May 04, 2022 10:40 am

Chris Preston wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 10:08 am

It is a last ditch attempt by what is fast becoming a minority to hold onto power. It has been clear in the last two Presidential elections that Texas is moving towards a purple state. Once it tips, it will be all over for the GOP, given their current pandering to the minority Christian Evangelist, racist and misogynist voter blocks. Demographic changes in populations can only be held back so long by gerrymandering. Colorado has moved from a solid Red state (except when Ross Perot split the vote) to a state that will not vote for the GOP again in their current guise. This is not because Colorado is a hotbed of Marxists, but because the GOP has abandoned the centre for the far right. That only works long term if you get rid of free elections.

The downside is this is going to take some time and it is going to be more and more divisive as the GOP struggles to hold on to power. I would not be at all surprised if one or more of the far-right militias attempts a real coup, given the alternative universe they live in.
I vote in Texas or better said, I try. I need to call and see what went wrong with my primary vote, but they are doing a great job of finding insane reasons to throw out your vote. I just get the feeling that the GOP is going to be successful. Esp. if they overturn roe vs. wade..there is nothing stopping the states from going even further than they already are. The Supreme court is letting them ride roughshod over the constitution and this will "legalize" it further. But...they've already got things so gerrymandered, I'm having trouble imagining the GOP losing..even if 3/4 of the public vote blue. Now...when enough stories of pretty married white girls who go to the baptist church faithfully are forced to die and leave behind their pretty little blonde children and their good ol boy husband....they might change a few laws to allow a few women to get abortions to save their lives (I'm thinking OK here). But will they lose control? I sort of doubt it. Am I voting for Beto? Hell yeah! Are my friends and family? The ones I'm still talking to sure as hell will. Do I think the voting system is fair? No. Do I think Beto can win? No. Even if he gets 3/4 of the vote. No. The GOP has proved over and over again that they will break laws and rig the system and they don't give sh.t one about most people as long as they get control. Texas can be blue and it won't matter. Oklahoma has no chance. I can't even think about it without getting riled. I escaped that place for a reason, but I have a lot of people there who I care about who are not racist, misogynistic asswipe. And what this is going to do to the Indigenous nations....holy hell. But people are too busy pretending this is only about abortion, so many people that are all riled up by their preachers will give away the rights of all women...and most everyone else will lose their rights too. GRRR.... By the way Chris Preston...I"m all for hearing a cheerier version where the Democrats win and are able to shrug off the GOP to the extent that they can actually turn things around a bit...but you are going to have to work hard to convince me it's actually going to happen.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by lpm » Wed May 04, 2022 11:03 am

Chris Preston wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 10:08 am

It is a last ditch attempt by what is fast becoming a minority to hold onto power. It has been clear in the last two Presidential elections that Texas is moving towards a purple state. Once it tips, it will be all over for the GOP, given their current pandering to the minority Christian Evangelist, racist and misogynist voter blocks. Demographic changes in populations can only be held back so long by gerrymandering. Colorado has moved from a solid Red state (except when Ross Perot split the vote) to a state that will not vote for the GOP again in their current guise. This is not because Colorado is a hotbed of Marxists, but because the GOP has abandoned the centre for the far right. That only works long term if you get rid of free elections.

The downside is this is going to take some time and it is going to be more and more divisive as the GOP struggles to hold on to power. I would not be at all surprised if one or more of the far-right militias attempts a real coup, given the alternative universe they live in.
This is ignores that the vote in certain states will be "disputed", the Electoral College will exclude those states, and the Supreme Court will rule in favour of the exclusion.

And the same for Senate, House and State elections.
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Chris Preston » Wed May 04, 2022 11:41 am

On current trends, you will only have to wait until 2032. Unless the GOP make a move back towards the centre, they will be toast. As far as our politics is concerned, the Democrats would be considered a centre-right party with a centre-left wing.

The trend among key states in the US is for them to move Blue. Only Florida is bucking this trend. Winning a higher percentage of the vote in Wyoming or South Dakota is of no advantage.

The fact that the GOP is finding more and more ways of cheating on the electoral process shows they know they are not going to have majority support. They don't think they need it, but larger and larger cheating is an unsustainable strategy unless you can go the whole hog and outlaw the opposition. Even then it is unsustainable, as those without franchise will get more and more difficult to control. At this point there will be a revolution. It is going to get very ugly, but a small group of bigotted white Christian evangelists are not going to be able to rule the US for long.
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Chris Preston » Wed May 04, 2022 11:50 am

lpm wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 11:03 am
This is ignores that the vote in certain states will be "disputed", the Electoral College will exclude those states, and the Supreme Court will rule in favour of the exclusion.

And the same for Senate, House and State elections.
Restricting the franchise only works for so long, unless you can use the army to control the population. People lose confidence in institutions that oppress them. People are quite happy with the idea of making stupid decisions, and are quite happy to go along with stupid decisions if they think that is what the majority of people want. They get antsy when it becomes clear that a small minority are determined to deny them their rights. Once the majority has lost confidence in the structures of government it is all over. The GOP risks bringing down the Supreme Court with it.

It might take some time, but what the GOP is doing is not sustainable.
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by lpm » Wed May 04, 2022 11:55 am

Tell that to Orban.

Control the levers of voting and you win elections. The GOP will win Wisconsin, Georgia etc because they win the state level positions that determine the conduct of elections. People will be told that the Republican candidate won and any complaints are fake news / bad losers.
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Woodchopper » Wed May 04, 2022 11:56 am

Chris Preston wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 9:43 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 8:10 am
Unfortunately, discussion of expanding the court right now to counter this is a bit like talking about whether or not Ukraine should nuke the invading Russians - desirable or not the capability just isn't there, and the discussion* alone could prove counterproductive.


*Discussion by politicians, that is, not on places like here
This was a point I was going to make. The Democrats do not really have the numbers in the senate. Manchin and Sinema at least are not going to vote to expand SCOTUS bench.
I agree.

In terms of the electoral politics while there is a clear majority in favour of abortion rights across the US, it looks like such a majority is only present in 20 states out of 50. (In seven there is a majority against abortion rights, and in 23 there is no cleaar majority for either position). Reforming the Supreme Court in order to save abortion rights is going to look politically risky for Senators from states like West Virginia or Arizona where there isn't a majority in favour of freedom to choose.

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