Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

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Aoui
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Aoui » Wed May 04, 2022 12:15 pm

Chris Preston wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 11:41 am


The fact that the GOP is finding more and more ways of cheating on the electoral process shows they know they are not going to have majority support. They don't think they need it, but larger and larger cheating is an unsustainable strategy unless you can go the whole hog and outlaw the opposition. Even then it is unsustainable, as those without franchise will get more and more difficult to control. At this point there will be a revolution. It is going to get very ugly, but a small group of bigotted white Christian evangelists are not going to be able to rule the US for long.
Where the democrats stand in relation to any other country is completely irrelevant. Plus, those of us who vote Democrat have a VERY wide array of beliefs. How I vote in one country is not at all how I vote in another. I won't touch the VVD with a ten foot pole, but they are further left than the Democrats. Now...onto the important part. By getting rid of roe vs. wade the Supreme Court is basically able to take apart the 14th amendment. They are handing all the power to the States, which in turn allows the GOP to gerrymander further. If the states decide to restrict voting, they can. It's already been in effect, but this shows what anyone watching already knew...that it's really going to happen. It's too late already. Now, if you know even the slightest bit about what is going on with Texas, you will know that it's gerrymandered beyond the ability for it to turn blue. Also laws are being made where the state government can overturn the will of the people if they don't vote the way the tw.ts in charge want. You can argue as to whether the opposition is made illegal or just completely unable to win, but the effect is the same. Will there be a revolution? Meh....people might try but, I don't see it as amounting to much. We are already pretending we have a chance, but I am 95% sure the legislature will be handed over to the GOP by hook or by crook. Again, if the feds no longer have the right to overrule the states if they overstep boundaries, then there are no boundaries anymore (except what the GOP wants..of course). And since the GOP has taken pages out of the Putin hand book, I expect things to go badly if people do try to rise up. You have to remember how much racism there is, how much religion, how much nationalism, how much misogyny and remember that they are happy to exploit that to pit people against each other to keep themselves in power. I'm not particularly positive right now. Remember, if it goes to the GOP, there is a good chance the US will suddenly be best friends with Putin again. Think of what this means for Europe. And think about how easy it was to create Brexit and France nearly went to le Pen. Also remember that the USA is a lot farther away from other countries. It's easy to be a 12 hour drive from Mexico and still be in Texas. The world seems much farther away to a lot of Americans. The majority don't just get to pop over to several countries easily. It makes you think differently about the world. So....I think this is the beginning. We rise up now or we never do. I'm hoping people will, but I rather doubt it. I'm glad right now that I don't have to live there. But it's stressful as hell seeing what is happening.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Grumble » Wed May 04, 2022 2:46 pm

I’ve seen predictions for many years that republicans are doomed and that minorities vote democrat. That seems to ignore that many Latinx are somewhere to the right of many white Americans.
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Stranger Mouse » Wed May 04, 2022 3:28 pm

Matt Gaetz

https://twitter.com/mattgaetz/status/15 ... SbpHzdInPw
How many of the women rallying against overturning Roe are over-educated, under-loved millennials who sadly return from protests to a lonely microwave dinner with their cats, and no bumble matches?
What an evil tw.t
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by headshot » Wed May 04, 2022 4:33 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 3:28 pm
Matt Gaetz

https://twitter.com/mattgaetz/status/15 ... SbpHzdInPw
How many of the women rallying against overturning Roe are over-educated, under-loved millennials who sadly return from protests to a lonely microwave dinner with their cats, and no bumble matches?
What an evil tw.t
That's some confidence for a man accused of sex trafficking minors.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Grumble » Wed May 04, 2022 4:40 pm

What is “over-educated”? Finished high-school?
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by monkey » Wed May 04, 2022 6:33 pm

Grumble wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 4:40 pm
What is “over-educated”? Finished high-school?
He's got a postgraduate degree (a JD), so I guess that definitely includes him.

I for one am shocked that a conservative politician might be a hypocrite.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by dyqik » Wed May 04, 2022 11:31 pm

monkey wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 6:33 pm
Grumble wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 4:40 pm
What is “over-educated”? Finished high-school?
He's got a postgraduate degree (a JD), so I guess that definitely includes him.

I for one am shocked that a conservative politician might be a hypocrite.
Oops, confused JD with JD Vance, while not reading properly.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu May 05, 2022 8:43 am

Looking at support for abortion in the UK, net support is around 80% and is pretty steady. Across Europe, support is generally quite high - even in Poland, where restrictions have recently been introduced, net support (I'm defining as equal to "whenever required" + "in certain circumstances" - "never unless at risk" - "never") is +60%.

In the US, the state which supports abortion the most is Vermont, which is +46%. The worst is Louisiana, which is -23%. (From here)

What's remarkable is that the US is, when compared to other countries on the matter, much less liberally-minded than Russia, and much more in line with Brazil, India and South Africa - that is, it acts more like an emerging economy than a developed one.

The rejection of Roe vs Wade would lead to immediate bans on abortion being triggered which would cover 21% of the US population, or 69m people (about the same as the population of the UK). In contrast, the recently lifted ban on abortion in Northern Ireland affected 1.9m people, or 3% of the UK. Argentina's population is about 45m. Ireland's is about 5m. Mexico is 129m. So reversing Roe vs Wade, set against that context, plus the new restrictions introduced in Poland (pop. 38m) is hugely damaging for the trend of liberalisation of women's rights across the world.

Obviously, those are state population totals over both sexes and all ages, so it's not quite right in terms of who it affects. The proportion of women of child-bearing age in each state will vary (I couldn't find a table of state-level population pyramids), but overall about 20% of the population are women who can give birth (females between 15 and 44 years of age). So roughly 14m women will be affected by any bans on abortion in the immediate aftermath.
Last edited by El Pollo Diablo on Thu May 05, 2022 8:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by WFJ » Thu May 05, 2022 9:53 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 8:43 am

What's remarkable is that the US is, when compared to other countries on the matter, much less liberally-minded than Russia, and much more in line with Brazil, India and South Africa - that is, it acts more like an emerging economy than a developed one.
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Woodchopper » Thu May 05, 2022 11:11 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 8:43 am
Looking at support for abortion in the UK, net support is around 80% and is pretty steady. Across Europe, support is generally quite high - even in Poland, where restrictions have recently been introduced, net support (I'm defining as equal to "whenever required" + "in certain circumstances" - "never unless at risk" - "never") is +60%.

In the US, the state which supports abortion the most is Vermont, which is +46%. The worst is Louisiana, which is -23%. (From here)

What's remarkable is that the US is, when compared to other countries on the matter, much less liberally-minded than Russia, and much more in line with Brazil, India and South Africa - that is, it acts more like an emerging economy than a developed one.
Maybe better to think of there being two very different societies in the US, both of which despise each other. The cosmopolitan metropolitan areas on each coast are very different to the hinterland in the middle. To take the abortion example, New York and California have in some ways more liberal abortion laws than are found in many European states. Its available on demand or for very broad reasons up to 23 weeks in California or 24 weeks in New York, whereas the equivalent is 12 weeks in Germany, 14 weeks in France and 18 weeks in Sweden. After which its much more restricted.

(Week numbers are from the interwebs, apologies if I made an error).

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by dyqik » Thu May 05, 2022 12:09 pm

Massachusetts has a trigger law legalizing abortion up to 24 weeks, and after that in more restricted circumstances, which goes into effect as soon as Roe v Wade is overturned.

It also has state funding for improving access. Not a lot, but some.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Woodchopper » Thu May 05, 2022 12:30 pm

dyqik wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 12:09 pm
Massachusetts has a trigger law legalizing abortion up to 24 weeks, and after that in more restricted circumstances, which goes into effect as soon as Roe v Wade is overturned.

It also has state funding for improving access. Not a lot, but some.
I think that the UK and the Netherlands are the only European states that allow abortion on demand or for broad reasons up to 24 weeks. As far as I know ten to twelve weeks is the most common limit.

But as you write, access is another very important issue even if its legal. Access for women needing an abortion far easier in European countries with universal state funded healthcare provision.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by gosling » Thu May 05, 2022 9:22 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 12:30 pm
I think that the UK and the Netherlands are the only European states that allow abortion on demand or for broad reasons up to 24 weeks. As far as I know ten to twelve weeks is the most common limit.
The UK does not have "abortion on demand".
Does the fact that there is such broad discretion for authorising abortions mean that British women have access to 'abortion on demand'?

No. The construction of the law around a doctor's good faith opinion was motivated firstly by a concern about the health consequences of unwanted pregnancy and backstreet abortion for women and their families, and secondly by an unwillingness to legislate for abortion on demand. Women in Britain cannot obtain abortions 'just because' they want them – doctors have to agree that they are warranted. That there is no right to abortion on demand is illustrated in three ways.

First, the law makes very clear that the decision rests with two doctors, according to their own judgement about the impact of abortion versus childbirth on the woman's physical or mental health.

Second, on the question of the woman's social circumstances, the law does not state that doctors 'must' take account of a woman's environment, but that they 'may' do so. This means that doctors are not compelled to take these broader factors into account.

Third, the Abortion Act allows doctors the right to conscientious objection to authorising or performing abortions, except where this is necessary to save the woman's life or to prevent grave, permanent injury to her health. This means that women do not have the right to demand that any doctor performs an abortion for her.
https://www.bpas.org/get-involved/campa ... rtion-law/

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Chris Preston » Thu May 05, 2022 10:45 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 8:43 am
Obviously, those are state population totals over both sexes and all ages, so it's not quite right in terms of who it affects. The proportion of women of child-bearing age in each state will vary (I couldn't find a table of state-level population pyramids), but overall about 20% of the population are women who can give birth (females between 15 and 44 years of age). So roughly 14m women will be affected by any bans on abortion in the immediate aftermath.
It will only be the poor, predominately African Americans, who will be penalised. For the rich, there is the easy option of going to a state where abortion is legal to have the procedure done.

On this topic, I read an opinion piece from a "professed pro-life conservative" yesterday about how conservatives in the US held their noses and voted for Trump, because getting a majority of judges on the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v Wade was the most important thing. It struck me how sad life must be for some people that the most important thing they can do is interfere with the private lives of other people.
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri May 06, 2022 12:17 am

Just gonna say that I'm not sure having to travel to another state to have an abortion is an easy option for anyone, even if it's relatively easier than continuing the pregnancy.
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by dyqik » Fri May 06, 2022 12:23 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 12:17 am
Just gonna say that I'm not sure having to travel to another state to have an abortion is an easy option for anyone, even if it's relatively easier than continuing the pregnancy.
That very much depends on the state and where you are in it.

Someone in Concord, NH, (which hasn't legalized abortion at the state level) would be fine. It's a 30 minute drive to Massachusetts, Maine or Vermont.

Someone near Houston, or New Orleans on the other hand...

(Louisiana is about to pass a law making cleaning up an ectopic pregnancy "murder")

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri May 06, 2022 12:36 am

Nah fr, I think terminating a pregnancy can be (not always) traumatic enough if you could do it at home. Getting to an unfamiliar part of town adds to the stress. Having to negotiate a different state's medical paperwork is another layer of unnecessary grief. Obviously it's even worse if you need a 14 hour greyhound and a motel after, but Ben Folds Five's Brick only involved intrastate travel and that sounded bad enough.

I'm pretty sure this is mostly a rich man thing. Because it's bad news for rich women too.

(fwiw my ex only lived long enough for me to meet her because she'd been able to about an ectopic pregnancy. In Colombia. This is yet another way the world is losing loads of wonderful people and it makes me furious)
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Woodchopper » Fri May 06, 2022 3:32 am

gosling wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 9:22 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Thu May 05, 2022 12:30 pm
I think that the UK and the Netherlands are the only European states that allow abortion on demand or for broad reasons up to 24 weeks. As far as I know ten to twelve weeks is the most common limit.
The UK does not have "abortion on demand".
Does the fact that there is such broad discretion for authorising abortions mean that British women have access to 'abortion on demand'?

No. The construction of the law around a doctor's good faith opinion was motivated firstly by a concern about the health consequences of unwanted pregnancy and backstreet abortion for women and their families, and secondly by an unwillingness to legislate for abortion on demand. Women in Britain cannot obtain abortions 'just because' they want them – doctors have to agree that they are warranted. That there is no right to abortion on demand is illustrated in three ways.

First, the law makes very clear that the decision rests with two doctors, according to their own judgement about the impact of abortion versus childbirth on the woman's physical or mental health.

Second, on the question of the woman's social circumstances, the law does not state that doctors 'must' take account of a woman's environment, but that they 'may' do so. This means that doctors are not compelled to take these broader factors into account.

Third, the Abortion Act allows doctors the right to conscientious objection to authorising or performing abortions, except where this is necessary to save the woman's life or to prevent grave, permanent injury to her health. This means that women do not have the right to demand that any doctor performs an abortion for her.
https://www.bpas.org/get-involved/campa ... rtion-law/
Yes, hence why I wrote “or for broad reasons”. A similar situation applies in Finland.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by IvanV » Fri May 06, 2022 10:13 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 3:32 am
Yes, hence why I wrote “or for broad reasons”. A similar situation applies in Finland.
Map of abortion laws by country shows that, on the strict "how legal is it" test, FInland and UK are close to being the least liberal abortion laws in Europe: only Poland and Malta and various microstates (the Andorras and San Marinos etc) are stricter.

But, as was said, things differ on the details. This slightly older article compares the details of laws. Quite a lot of countries have barriers such as a waiting period - eg Germany, Italy, Spain, Benelux - which the UK doesn't have. And whilst some have rather shorter "on-demand" time limits, in other situations they are likely to have sensible rules.

This map tries to score liberalities across Europe, by combining the various factors into an overall score. In this approach, which is bound to be a little approximate, UK comes out as among the top 3 most liberal places. Indeed the liberal places are basically the Atlantic coastline states of Europe, the Nordics and Switzerland, excepting Portugal and Ireland which are more on the central Europe scale. Then things get less liberal as you go east, starting even with Germany, though it is a bit of a patchwork with an island of lower liberality in central Europe.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Fri May 06, 2022 10:48 am

Interestingly, though, digging into the numbers, they don't dock GB points for requiring two medical practitioners to sign off. Seems odd.
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by dyqik » Fri May 06, 2022 12:09 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 10:48 am
Interestingly, though, digging into the numbers, they don't dock GB points for requiring two medical practitioners to sign off. Seems odd.
Practically, that depends on how hard it is to find two medical practitioners to sign off on it. If most practitioners will sign off on it, and can easily find a second to make up the numbers, then there isn't any impediment. If many won't, or have trouble finding the second opinion, then there is.

Overall, it's another classic British civil rights bodge, with legal/constitutional theory and practice being at complete odds.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 06, 2022 12:16 pm

dyqik wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 12:23 am
(Louisiana is about to pass a law making cleaning up an ectopic pregnancy "murder")
This would also apply to the morning after pill and IUDs.

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by LydiaGwilt » Fri May 06, 2022 2:42 pm

I that happens, could you put in a plea of self-defence? It seems reasonable - as I understand it an ectopic pregnancy will kill under almost all circumstances. Or would a self-defence plea only work in the US if guns are involved?

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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by Cardinal Fang » Fri May 06, 2022 2:52 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 12:16 pm
dyqik wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 12:23 am
(Louisiana is about to pass a law making cleaning up an ectopic pregnancy "murder")
This would also apply to the morning after pill and IUDs.
A legal defense against murder is the argument of self-defence. That you had reason to believe that your safety or life were in danger.

If they are intent on redefining any fertilised egg as the equivalent of a person (even pre-implantation), then surely that defence comes in to play. Given that the US has higher rates of maternal mortality compared to most if not all other OECD countries, it's surely a legitimate argument to say that the person having the termination feared for their safety. Louisiana even has a "stand your ground" law that says a homicide is allowed if you have a reasonable belief that you are in danger of losing your life and that the killing is necessary to save yourself from that danger.

CF
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Re: Roe v Wade likely to be overturned

Post by EACLucifer » Fri May 06, 2022 3:08 pm

Cardinal Fang wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 2:52 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 12:16 pm
dyqik wrote:
Fri May 06, 2022 12:23 am
(Louisiana is about to pass a law making cleaning up an ectopic pregnancy "murder")
This would also apply to the morning after pill and IUDs.
A legal defense against murder is the argument of self-defence. That you had reason to believe that your safety or life were in danger.

If they are intent on redefining any fertilised egg as the equivalent of a person (even pre-implantation), then surely that defence comes in to play. Given that the US has higher rates of maternal mortality compared to most if not all other OECD countries, it's surely a legitimate argument to say that the person having the termination feared for their safety. Louisiana even has a "stand your ground" law that says a homicide is allowed if you have a reasonable belief that you are in danger of losing your life and that the killing is necessary to save yourself from that danger.

CF
1) Yes, that's true
2) I don't think it's crossed the minds of these fuckwits
3) This would, at best, still require a test case, and for people to prove it in court, which is still indefensible persecution of women and girls and trans men for that matter, and will be a huge problem for those who need an abortion for a whole range of reasons that don't include imminent risk of serious bodily harm or death.

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