Vote of no confidence

[Brightonian]

News reports that Sir Graham Brady has got the 15% and so a confidence vote will take place this evening.

[Tessa K]

Between 6 and 8pm tonight Tory MPs will be deciding Boris' fate.

It will take 180 votes to get rid of him. It's a secret ballot but even so, will they have the guts to do it or will they be too scared of repercussions if he survives?

And if he goes, who will replace him?

[lpm]

I'm undecided.

He will destroy the Tories if he stays and Starmer can win in 2024. But does a lot of damage.

If he goes a new leader could get reelected in 2024. But face a terrible year or two of economic crisis on the way.

Clever Tories would wait to decapitate Johnson until Jan 2024.

[Rich Scopie]

News reports that Sir Graham Brady has got the 15% and so a confidence vote will take place this evening.

Yep. I still suspect he'll survive, then they can't have another one in the next 12 months (as I understand it).

[gosling]

So if he loses tonight, does that mean he's fired or is he expected to resign? Just like on all the previous occasions where he should have resigned but didn't.

[Stranger Mouse]

News reports that Sir Graham Brady has got the 15% and so a confidence vote will take place this evening.

Yep. I still suspect he'll survive, then they can't have another one in the next 12 months (as I understand it).

Theresa May survived until she didn’t. The question will be whether Boris Johnson, who even if he wins will be damaged, will step down when mores hit hits the fan or whether he will have to be dragged out kicking and screaming.

[JQH]

The latter I suspect.

[Woodchopper]

News reports that Sir Graham Brady has got the 15% and so a confidence vote will take place this evening.

Yep. I still suspect he'll survive, then they can't have another one in the next 12 months (as I understand it).

Theresa May survived until she didn’t. The question will be whether Boris Johnson, who even if he wins will be damaged, will step down when mores hit hits the fan or whether he will have to be dragged out kicking and screaming.

Yes. The 12 month thing is an internal party rule. If there is a majority to get rid of Johnson there is also likely to be a majority to change the 12 month rule.

[Woodchopper]

I've moved some posts over from the thread on Next Tory leader, as the confidence vote was being discussed in two different places.

[Stranger Mouse]

News reports that Sir Graham Brady has got the 15% and so a confidence vote will take place this evening.

Yep. I still suspect he'll survive, then they can't have another one in the next 12 months (as I understand it).

Unless they rewrite the 1922 rules which they can

[Rich Scopie]

News reports that Sir Graham Brady has got the 15% and so a confidence vote will take place this evening.

Yep. I still suspect he'll survive, then they can't have another one in the next 12 months (as I understand it).

Unless they rewrite the 1922 rules which they can

Yeah - I've just been reading about that. I think he's going to have be dragged kicking and screaming out of Downing Street, whatever happens.

[WFJ]

Best case scenario is he survives with about 40% voting against. Tories then get trashed in by-elections but are stuck with a weak leader for a year.

I think this is unlikely though. If it's clear he won't be defeated, most won't vote against. He'll either be voted out or around 15-20 MPs at most will vote against.

[El Pollo Diablo]

So if he loses tonight, does that mean he's fired or is he expected to resign? Just like on all the previous occasions where he should have resigned but didn't.

He's basically fired as Tory leader but will remain as PM until there's a replacement. The technicalities of whether it's a demand to resign (which I can imagine - withdrawal of confidence generally requires a resignation, I think?) or a kicking out result in the same effect.

[science_fox]

Best case scenario is he survives with about 40% voting against. Tories then get trashed in by-elections but are stuck with a weak leader for a year.

I think this is unlikely though. If it's clear he won't be defeated, most won't vote against. He'll either be voted out or around 15-20 MPs at most will vote against.

You'd hope that at the very least the 54 people who have a letter in will vote against... would be a bit odd otehrwise

[El Pollo Diablo]

It's a secret ballot, there's no comebacks for anyone who votes against today.

[WFJ]

Best case scenario is he survives with about 40% voting against. Tories then get trashed in by-elections but are stuck with a weak leader for a year.

I think this is unlikely though. If it's clear he won't be defeated, most won't vote against. He'll either be voted out or around 15-20 MPs at most will vote against.

You'd hope that at the very least the 54 people who have a letter in will vote against... would be a bit odd otehrwise

It wouldn't surprise me if a few have sent letters to get the vote out of the way, and others would switch. Maybe my prediction is too pessimistic, but I think him scraping through in a close vote is unlikely.

[TopBadger]

He's toxic - surely his MP's can see that. The only thing he can be relied on is to put his own survival above country, party... everything.

I wonder how many ambitious morons in his own cabinet will vote against him?

[IvanV]

Best case scenario is he survives with about 40% voting against. Tories then get trashed in by-elections but are stuck with a weak leader for a year.

I think this is unlikely though. If it's clear he won't be defeated, most won't vote against. He'll either be voted out or around 15-20 MPs at most will vote against.

Having 40% voting against you is pretty uncomfortable, possibly too uncomfortable to remain as leader. Which is probably why what you say about "if it's clear he won't be defeated..." might be true - they wouldn't necessarily want to put the leader in such a difficult position with any alternative rather less popular.

The institutions were a little different back then, but Mrs Thatcher got 54% in the first round of a leadership challenge, and still resigned. Under the rules then, she required a 15% lead to avoid a second ballot, and fell just short of that.

I've tended to say he wouldn't get challenged until the replacement felt that they'd still have new leader bounce when they got to the next election, though with enough time to establish themselves. Now is about the earliest time for that.

[WFJ]

Best case scenario is he survives with about 40% voting against. Tories then get trashed in by-elections but are stuck with a weak leader for a year.

I think this is unlikely though. If it's clear he won't be defeated, most won't vote against. He'll either be voted out or around 15-20 MPs at most will vote against.

Having 40% voting against you is pretty uncomfortable, possibly too uncomfortable to remain as leader. Which is probably why what you say about "if it's clear he won't be defeated..." might be true - they wouldn't necessarily want to put the leader in such a difficult position with any alternative rather less popular.

The institutions were a little different back then, but Mrs Thatcher got 54% in the first round of a leadership challenge, and still resigned. Under the rules then, she required a 15% lead to avoid a second ballot, and fell just short of that.

I think most Tory MPs are aware that Johnson will only do what is best for Johnson. Screwing over his party would only concern him insofar as it reflects badly on him. Short of a loss he will try to hang on and it will be up to his cabinet to publicly kick him out.

[Tessa K]

It's a secret ballot, there's no comebacks for anyone who votes against today.

Everyone who votes for him will make sure he knows if he survives.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Best case scenario is he survives with about 40% voting against. Tories then get trashed in by-elections but are stuck with a weak leader for a year.

I think this is unlikely though. If it's clear he won't be defeated, most won't vote against. He'll either be voted out or around 15-20 MPs at most will vote against.

Having 40% voting against you is pretty uncomfortable, possibly too uncomfortable to remain as leader. Which is probably why what you say about "if it's clear he won't be defeated..." might be true - they wouldn't necessarily want to put the leader in such a difficult position with any alternative rather less popular.

The institutions were a little different back then, but Mrs Thatcher got 54% in the first round of a leadership challenge, and still resigned. Under the rules then, she required a 15% lead to avoid a second ballot, and fell just short of that.

I think most Tory MPs are aware that Johnson will only do what is best for Johnson. Screwing over his party would only concern him insofar as it reflects badly on him. Short of a loss he will try to hang on and it will be up to his cabinet to publicly kick him out.

I don't know, tbh. Obviously you're right that Johnson has no honour and will only concern himself with clinging onto No 10 as long as he can, and quite probably with some sort of petty revenge as well (a general election, perhaps). I'm just not sure that most Tory MPs have yet clocked that he's the apotheosis of self-interest. Double digit IQs and all that.

[El Pollo Diablo]

It's a secret ballot, there's no comebacks for anyone who votes against today.

Everyone who votes for him will make sure he knows if he survives.

If he survives, many of those who vote against him will, of course, let him know just how much they support him.

[lpm]

Are you suggesting Conservative MPs would lie to their Prime Minister? Outrageous. They are honourable ladies and gentlemen, not socialist scum.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Jeremy rhyming slang has withdrawn his support

https://nitter.net/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1 ... 99657728#m

[Woodchopper]

Best case scenario is he survives with about 40% voting against. Tories then get trashed in by-elections but are stuck with a weak leader for a year.

I think this is unlikely though. If it's clear he won't be defeated, most won't vote against. He'll either be voted out or around 15-20 MPs at most will vote against.

Having 40% voting against you is pretty uncomfortable, possibly too uncomfortable to remain as leader. Which is probably why what you say about "if it's clear he won't be defeated..." might be true - they wouldn't necessarily want to put the leader in such a difficult position with any alternative rather less popular.

The institutions were a little different back then, but Mrs Thatcher got 54% in the first round of a leadership challenge, and still resigned. Under the rules then, she required a 15% lead to avoid a second ballot, and fell just short of that.

I've tended to say he wouldn't get challenged until the replacement felt that they'd still have new leader bounce when they got to the next election, though with enough time to establish themselves. Now is about the earliest time for that.

As for some other results. In 2018 Theresa May won 64% of the vote and carried on for another year. In 1995 John Major won 66% and carried on until 1997.

So it looks like 60% would mean that Johnson would be able to carry on, at least for another year. Worst case for the Tory party would be if Johnson got between 51 and 59 per cent but refused to resign.