Page 11 of 16
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:18 pm
by WFJ
Has anything been mentioned about the inquiry into Johnson lying? Presumably this will still happen.
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:41 pm
by dyqik
lpm wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:03 pm
jimbob wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 11:07 am
But this thread looks accurate
https://twitter.com/garius/status/15449 ... jJN0yK8LzA
Given his appointments so far.
So a few serious thoughts before I run to a meeting. Based on the fact that we live in the literal worst timeline...
...how does Boris Johnson make this EVEN WORSE?
Answer: fill the vacant cabinet roles. /1
lot of discussion then
https://twitter.com/garius/status/15449 ... jJN0yK8LzA
Why is this EVEN WORSE than, say Raab ending up in charge?
Well because we'd be looking at 3 months of Johnson pushing his redemption agenda largely unchecked. AND ALSO a cabinet full of even more overpromoted wannabes WHO ARE NOW FIGHTING FOR THE LEADERSHIP
I can't believe the stupidity of that thread. And can't be arsed to go through the errors. Isn't this the train guy, talks about steam engines and stuff?
It's also the Brexit Tapes guy, the military historian guy, and the I'm a Star Trek shuttle pilot, AMA guy. He generally does know a fair amount about political and military history.
Whereas we have no idea of your competencies, background, or even your sources, as you choose to remain highly anonymous and not link to anything.
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:42 pm
by Stranger Mouse
WFJ wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:18 pm
Has anything been mentioned about the inquiry into Johnson lying? Presumably this will still happen.
Yeah but they didn’t go into it in great detail during the Liaison Committee because it was covered by a different committee
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:58 pm
by lpm
dyqik wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:41 pm
lpm wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:03 pm
I can't believe the stupidity of that thread. And can't be arsed to go through the errors. Isn't this the train guy, talks about steam engines and stuff?
It's also the Brexit Tapes guy, the military historian guy, and the I'm a Star Trek shuttle pilot, AMA guy. He generally does know a fair amount about political and military history.
Whereas we have no idea of your competencies, background, or even your sources, as you choose to remain highly anonymous and not link to anything.
OK, if you want the fisking, his basic mistake is in understanding how political rulers in the UK exert their power. I.e. The Prime Minister and Cabinet Ministers, and how they get their will translated into action on the ground.
1) Commons is going to be in recess in a couple of weeks. There is no way to get new legislation through. Tory MPs are concentrating on their little civil war, then people are on holiday, then there's a new PM for when it comes out of recess.
2) Power is translated via the civil service, which remains unaffected and doesn't go wild like this thread implies. There are specific rules for what powers can be used during general election campaigns which by convention have also begun to apply to these interregnum periods.
3) He's factually wrong that all the cabinet is going to be fighting for the leadership for three months. The candidates will emerge within days and will be whittled down to the final two within two weeks from now. It's simply not correct that they can or will use Cabinet Minister positions as part of the fight, particularly as it's likely at least one of the final two won't be a cabinet minister.
4) We are not "looking at 3 months of Johnson pushing his redemption agenda largely unchecked" because the process doesn't take that long. Johnson has zero political capital to push through any agenda.
5) He ignores the power of patronage, which is in fact the biggest danger during the interregnum. Johnson could distort things, but only if he had the energy and work ethic to do so.
6) All Cabinet Ministers are temporary now. Every one needs to prepare for a new PM in two months time. They will simply ignore Johnson if he tries to exert power through them. This is basic politics.
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:07 pm
by jimbob
lpm wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:58 pm
dyqik wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:41 pm
lpm wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:03 pm
I can't believe the stupidity of that thread. And can't be arsed to go through the errors. Isn't this the train guy, talks about steam engines and stuff?
It's also the Brexit Tapes guy, the military historian guy, and the I'm a Star Trek shuttle pilot, AMA guy. He generally does know a fair amount about political and military history.
Whereas we have no idea of your competencies, background, or even your sources, as you choose to remain highly anonymous and not link to anything.
OK, if you want the fisking, his basic mistake is in understanding how political rulers in the UK exert their power. I.e. The Prime Minister and Cabinet Ministers, and how they get their will translated into action on the ground.
1) Commons is going to be in recess in a couple of weeks. There is no way to get new legislation through. Tory MPs are concentrating on their little civil war, then people are on holiday, then there's a new PM for when it comes out of recess.
2) Power is translated via the civil service, which remains unaffected and doesn't go wild like this thread implies. There are specific rules for what powers can be used during general election campaigns which by convention have also begun to apply to these interregnum periods.
3) He's factually wrong that all the cabinet is going to be fighting for the leadership for three months. The candidates will emerge within days and will be whittled down to the final two within two weeks from now. It's simply not correct that they can or will use Cabinet Minister positions as part of the fight, particularly as it's likely at least one of the final two won't be a cabinet minister.
4) We are not "looking at 3 months of Johnson pushing his redemption agenda largely unchecked" because the process doesn't take that long. Johnson has zero political capital to push through any agenda.
5) He ignores the power of patronage, which is in fact the biggest danger during the interregnum. Johnson could distort things, but only if he had the energy and work ethic to do so.
6) All Cabinet Ministers are temporary now. Every one needs to prepare for a new PM in two months time. They will simply ignore Johnson if he tries to exert power through them. This is basic politics.
1) Commons is going to be in recess in a couple of weeks. There is no way to get new legislation through. Tory MPs are concentrating on their little civil war, then people are on holiday, then there's a new PM for when it comes out of recess.
True
2) Power is translated via the civil service, which remains unaffected and doesn't go wild like this thread implies. There are specific rules for what powers can be used during general election campaigns which by convention have also begun to apply to these interregnum periods.
And Johnson has shown respect for convention, how? He has a history of violating unwritten rules.
3) He's factually wrong that all the cabinet is going to be fighting for the leadership for three months. The candidates will emerge within days and will be whittled down to the final two within two weeks from now. It's simply not correct that they can or will use Cabinet Minister positions as part of the fight, particularly as it's likely at least one of the final two won't be a cabinet minister.
We really don't know any of the timetable at this time, only that we will know the timetable soon
4) We are not "looking at 3 months of Johnson pushing his redemption agenda largely unchecked" because the process doesn't take that long. Johnson has zero political capital to push through any agenda.
Johnson probably doesn't believe that he has no political capital.
5) He ignores the power of patronage, which is in fact the biggest danger during the interregnum. Johnson could distort things, but only if he had the energy and work ethic to do so.
Johnson has been pretty diligent in working towards getting into power. And the playing political games could easily appeal
6) All Cabinet Ministers are temporary now. Every one needs to prepare for a new PM in two months time. They will simply ignore Johnson if he tries to exert power through them. This is basic politics.
If they're jockeying for position, due to the above, then that is not the case
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:20 pm
by lpm
Lame ducks are, you know, notorious for being lame.
Claiming Johnson is going to be a powerful duck is therefore an extraordinary claim. It needs extraordinary evidence.
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:25 pm
by lpm
This is what Johnson will actually be concentrating on:
EXCL: Boris Johnson and wife Carrie are planning big wedding bash at Chequers within weeks - with sources saying it's part of reason he wants to stay as caretaker.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/ ... 0244578304
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:46 pm
by Brightonian
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:50 pm
by WFJ
Putin's attempts to keep his Nato mole in power?
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 3:34 pm
by EACLucifer
WFJ wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 2:50 pm
Putin's attempts to keep his Nato mole in power?
Johnson did not, in the end, side with Russia. Whatever they got from him, they rented him, rather than bought him. I can see Putin wanting him to stay, though, as there's every chance someone like Wallace would mean a bit less chaos, no reduction in support for Ukraine (possibly an increase, even) and someone less obnoxious than Johnson might be able to do a better job of getting other nations onboard with military support.
I've got to admit, I was disappointed. I was hoping Johnson would try sending yet more to Ukraine as a distraction. I was hoping for an Astute class
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:13 pm
by tom p
philbo wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 12:35 pm
I thought there might be some fun viewpoints about all this here.. but my, there was a lot to catch up on. Thanks to the war buffs for insights on Ukraine, not sure I've read all of it, but some interesting stuff.
Not convinced Boris is going to leave when the time comes: he has resigned as party leader, but not PM. A lot of this still applies:
https://davidallengreen.com/2022/07/wha ... to-resign/
..I'm not the only one who thinks so. Odd to be on the same page as Cummings
https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/ ... 4572430337
My former MP, Steve Baker has delusions of adequacy; but given the huge dearth of talent available, I guess he actually has a chance. Which is kinda scary. Braverman as "leader" seems about as plausible as Medvedev as leader with Putin as his PM.
Odd aside: back in 2020, I thought suggesting Trump was trying a "coup de tw.t" might have been original. I was very wrong, even back then.
Yaaay! Philbo!
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:49 pm
by dyqik
For maximum chaos, Boris could decide he doesn't want to go at a point that the queen is incapacitated due to ill health.
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 5:13 pm
by Grumble
dyqik wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:49 pm
For maximum chaos, Boris could decide he doesn't want to go at a point that the queen is incapacitated due to ill health.
I presume we still have the ability to appoint a regent
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 5:16 pm
by WFJ
Biden's statement on Johnson's resignation does not even mention Johnson.
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 5:20 pm
by Trinucleus
In news completely unrelated to Boris's desire to stay on, he and Carrie have a massive bash planned at Chequers later this month
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-poli ... pe=share
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 5:27 pm
by tom p
lpm wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:58 pm
dyqik wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:41 pm
lpm wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 1:03 pm
I can't believe the stupidity of that thread. And can't be arsed to go through the errors. Isn't this the train guy, talks about steam engines and stuff?
It's also the Brexit Tapes guy, the military historian guy, and the I'm a Star Trek shuttle pilot, AMA guy. He generally does know a fair amount about political and military history.
Whereas we have no idea of your competencies, background, or even your sources, as you choose to remain highly anonymous and not link to anything.
OK, if you want the fisking, his basic mistake is in understanding how political rulers in the UK exert their power. I.e. The Prime Minister and Cabinet Ministers, and how they get their will translated into action on the ground.
1) Commons is going to be in recess in a couple of weeks. There is no way to get new legislation through. Tory MPs are concentrating on their little civil war, then people are on holiday, then there's a new PM for when it comes out of recess.
2) Power is translated via the civil service, which remains unaffected and doesn't go wild like this thread implies. There are specific rules for what powers can be used during general election campaigns which by convention have also begun to apply to these interregnum periods.
3) He's factually wrong that all the cabinet is going to be fighting for the leadership for three months. The candidates will emerge within days and will be whittled down to the final two within two weeks from now. It's simply not correct that they can or will use Cabinet Minister positions as part of the fight, particularly as it's likely at least one of the final two won't be a cabinet minister.
4) We are not "looking at 3 months of Johnson pushing his redemption agenda largely unchecked" because the process doesn't take that long. Johnson has zero political capital to push through any agenda.
5) He ignores the power of patronage, which is in fact the biggest danger during the interregnum. Johnson could distort things, but only if he had the energy and work ethic to do so.
6) All Cabinet Ministers are temporary now. Every one needs to prepare for a new PM in two months time. They will simply ignore Johnson if he tries to exert power through them. This is basic politics.
For #4 you are so wrong. It might not take 3 months, fair enough, but every single day he is in office he will be pushing a redemption agenda. Not by doing anything, but by spouting endless lies about how greaat he has been. Self-mythologising is all he does, and in that he is aided and abetted by the craven and worthless members of the
5th column 4th estate, who have throughout his entire adult life supported and enabled him, despite knowing precisely what sort of person he is.
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:09 pm
by lpm
WTF even is a "redemption agenda"? You seem to think Boris Johnson is going to completely change personality and become dedicated to hard work, clever orchestration of policy and articulation of his vision.
What exact policy are you imagine he'll manage to push through during his lame duck two months? He achieved zero while in power except his terrible Brexit deal but now he's going to start achieving things?
We all know he's going to use that time for shagging opportunities, cashing in with bits of petty corruption and partying with their suitcase of wine.
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:46 pm
by dyqik
WFJ wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 5:16 pm
Biden's statement on Johnson's resignation does not even mention Johnson.
TBF, Johnson's resignation speech does not even mention the word resignation.
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:56 pm
by jimbob
lpm wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:09 pm
WTF even is a "redemption agenda"? You seem to think Boris Johnson is going to completely change personality and become dedicated to hard work, clever orchestration of policy and articulation of his vision.
What exact policy are you imagine he'll manage to push through during his lame duck two months? He achieved zero while in power except his terrible Brexit deal but now he's going to start achieving things?
We all know he's going to use that time for shagging opportunities, cashing in with bits of petty corruption and partying with their suitcase of wine.
Johnson is incapable of change, yes, but I read it as him thinking that the longer he remains PM, the more chance of a Deus ex machina restoring his political fortune.
Implausible schemes that Baldrick might come up with.
And the chance for petty revenge.
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:01 pm
by FlammableFlower
Is go for the last of those, plus ego (not going because sometimes told him to) and spite. He's famous for bearing grudges and now he's got them in spades.
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:41 pm
by Grumble
dyqik wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:46 pm
WFJ wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 5:16 pm
Biden's statement on Johnson's resignation does not even mention Johnson.
TBF, Johnson's resignation speech does not even mention the word resignation.
Or the reason the Tory party has lost confidence in him.
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 8:43 pm
by shpalman
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 8:46 pm
by tom p
lpm wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:09 pm
WTF even is a "redemption agenda"? You seem to think Boris Johnson is going to completely change personality and become dedicated to hard work, clever orchestration of policy and articulation of his vision.
What exact policy are you imagine he'll manage to push through during his lame duck two months? He achieved zero while in power except his terrible Brexit deal but now he's going to start achieving things?
We all know he's going to use that time for shagging opportunities, cashing in with bits of petty corruption and partying with their suitcase of wine.
No, I think he's going to use the bully pulpit of being PM to repeatedly claim that he got all the big decisions right and that he was the greatest PM evah and would have been even greater and this would have been a new camelot, but for those backstabbing bastard cowards, and the media will just repeat his lies with barely murmur of even the mildest contradiction
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 9:47 pm
by philbo
Grumble wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:41 pm
dyqik wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 6:46 pm
WFJ wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 5:16 pm
Biden's statement on Johnson's resignation does not even mention Johnson.
TBF, Johnson's resignation speech does not even mention the word resignation.
Or the reason the Tory party has lost confidence in him.
His strategy of herd immunity didn't play out too well
I was chatting to my sister this evening, and commented that were something untoward to happen to either or both candidates (once the field had been whittled down to two), or some related "emergency" that required the hand on the tiller not be changed while that emergency played out.. well, that would not surprise me one iota.
Whenever I hear "he got the big decisions right", it reminds me of those who said Mussolini "got the trains running on time"
Re: Boris: What next?
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 9:49 pm
by philbo
tom p wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 4:13 pm
Yaaay! Philbo!
..I've been lurking a bit recently, not really had anything to say though, until the last couple of days', ah.. "excitement"