Labour and Brexit

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Labour and Brexit

Post by headshot » Mon Jul 04, 2022 7:03 pm

Looks like Starmer has opted for perpetual cakeism:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... gle-market
Keir Starmer has thrown Labour back into the Brexit debate by ruling out any return to the single market or customs union, but arguing he could remove trade and travel barriers as prime minister because the EU would trust him.
Why rule it out?

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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by jimbob » Mon Jul 04, 2022 7:19 pm

headshot wrote:
Mon Jul 04, 2022 7:03 pm
Looks like Starmer has opted for perpetual cakeism:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... gle-market
Keir Starmer has thrown Labour back into the Brexit debate by ruling out any return to the single market or customs union, but arguing he could remove trade and travel barriers as prime minister because the EU would trust him.
Why rule it out?
The way I see it is that
By saying Labour would "make Brexit work" it focuses on the fact that it isn't. And that Johnson said he'd got it done. So keeps the focus on the Tory failure to get Brexit to work as opposed to an existential threat *to* Brexit.

And of course, the only way that Brexit can be made to work is by agreements with the EU, returning to alignment with the Single Market. So it's the start of the route back.

Things can change by the time there's a general election. At the moment this is mood music.
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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by Little waster » Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:01 pm

The problem is it’s mood music at the time the public mood is increasingly anti-Brexit.

The last poll I saw support for the statement “Brexit is going well” surge to a recent high of ... 17%.

The idea that Labour could offer some sort of better Labour Brexit simply by just being Labour was tested to destruction in 2019.

Meanwhile, once again, both the Tories and LDs are clapping their hands as Labour chooses some vague, unrealistic mushy Brexit middle-ground over a simple Brexit position you could slap on a bumper sticker, vacating the respective tranches of voters from both camps.
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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by Little waster » Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:32 pm

Personally I believe Labour should openly campaign for the “Norway Option” on the basis that is what the Leave side promised, backed up with all those 2016 clips of Farage and the other Brexiteer fuckwits saying how brilliant the Norway Option and about how nobody sensible is talking about leaving the SM. Instantly you neuter any suggestion that this is somehow not the “Will of the People”.

At a stroke rejoining EFTA would solve the NI issue and removes 95% of the friction of trading with the EU and the EFTA members, all the while very publicly not rejoining the EU and it’s democratic structures blocking off the spurious claims about lack of sovereignty and Taking Back Control.

Yes we forfeit the handful of sh.t new trade deals we’ve managed to sign but in return we gain new better trade deals with our biggest markets and even pick-up a better trade deal with Japan as a bonus. This underlines exactly how paltry our Britannia Unchained. Also at the strategic level the prospect of the imminent re-entry of the UK into EFTA immediately torpedos any of the Tories ongoing trade deals as the other parties will see little point in continuing them meaning the sad trickle of “Brexit good news stories” will completely dry up as the Express and the like will no longer be able to splash across their front page every couple of months the breathless reporting of Fiji’s eager agreement to buy an entire suitcase’s worth of cutting-edge jam flavours.

All that is left then is Freedom of Movement which leaves the Tories reduced to scrabbling around in the gutter alongside Reform and the BNP for who can grasp the biggest handful of the “I’m not racist but ...” turds.

Now the reality may be that Norway and the like may veto any UK application to EFTA but that is fixable even if it means creating our own special bi-lateral EFTA-clone, we could call it the Free European Trade Area or FETA. At worst it is no more nebulous than Starmer’s current hand-wavey “Better Brexit”.

Once back in EFTA, the disadvantages of that compared to full EU membership will become increasingly stark, after which it is just one more heave back into the EU in one-two parliaments time. Or not, at that point most the issues are fixed so let’s not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Jul 04, 2022 11:50 pm

The speech is here: https://labourlist.org/2022/07/a-plan-t ... hink-tank/
But the first step in doing so is to ensure Britain thrives in its new role in the world by ensuring we make Brexit work. There are some who say “we don’t need to make Brexit work – we need to reverse it.” I couldn’t disagree more. Because you cannot move forward or grow the country or deliver change or win back the trust of those who have lost faith in politics if you’re constantly focused on the arguments of the past. We cannot afford to look back over our shoulder because all the time we are doing that we are missing what is ahead of us.

So let me be very clear. Under Labour, Britain will not go back into the EU. We will not be joining the single market. We will not be joining a customs union.
Politically sensible but economically bonkers. But that’s where Britain is. The alternative would be economically sensible and politically bonkers.
What you will get under Labour is a plan. One that will deliver on the opportunities Britain has, sort out the poor deal Boris Johnson signed and end the Brexit divisions once and for all. It is a proper plan to make Brexit work.
The first step is clear and obvious. We must sort out the Northern Ireland protocol. If you’re going to make Brexit work, that has to be the starting point.

Just a few weeks ago, I had the pleasure to spend a week in Dublin and Belfast. Businesses there are clear – they can make it work. The solutions are there, the desire is there. What is lacking is trust. That crucial ingredient that has always characterised progress in relations between our islands has been eroded by this government. Labour will change that. We will be the honest broker our countries need. We will get the protocol working and we will make it the springboard to securing a better deal for the British people.

As well as building trust, Labour would eliminate most border checks created by the Tory Brexit deal with a new veterinary agreement for agri-products between the UK and EU. And we will work with business to put in place a better scheme to allow low-risk goods to enter Northern Ireland without unnecessary checks.
All sensible and needed.
The second step we would take is to tear down unnecessary barriers. Outside of the single market and a customs union, we will not be able to deliver complete frictionless trade with the EU. But there are things we can do to make trade easier.

Labour would extend that new veterinary agreement to cover all the UK, seeking to build on agreements and mechanisms already in place between the EU and other countries – benefiting our exporters at a stroke.
The veterinary agreement again.
The third step will be to support Britain’s world-leading industries. That means mutual recognition of professional qualifications ensuring our services can compete and restoring access to funding and vital research programmes.
These are more important. However there’s no mention of the extent to which the UK will need to align with the EU in return.
Labour will seek new security arrangements to defend our borders. It’s why we will share data, intelligence, and best practice, and it’s why we will set up joint intelligence working here and in Europe.
Good ideas, but again to what will the UK need to align with EU standards in order to receive sensitive data?
The final part of our plan will be to invest in Britain. The lesson of the last decade is that if we are to achieve economic growth and see the benefits flowing to every part of our country, we cannot simply be bystanders.
Sensible, and needed.

Overall, this is a huge victory for Leave. Starmer is looking to tinker with the existing deal and so make it stronger. This isn’t a criticism. It’s probably as much as he could feasibly get away with.

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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by jimbob » Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:24 am

Ben Bradshaw, the Exeter MP and former minister who is a leading pro-EU voice in the Labour party, said Starmer’s approach was “absolutely right”.

He said: “There is no prospect of us rejoining the EU, single market or customs union anytime soon, not least because [Boris] Johnson has so completely destroyed trust with our European neighbours that any such move would be on far worse terms than those we had before we left.
This bit is true also

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... gle-market
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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:04 am

jimbob wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:24 am
Ben Bradshaw, the Exeter MP and former minister who is a leading pro-EU voice in the Labour party, said Starmer’s approach was “absolutely right”.

He said: “There is no prospect of us rejoining the EU, single market or customs union anytime soon, not least because [Boris] Johnson has so completely destroyed trust with our European neighbours that any such move would be on far worse terms than those we had before we left.
This bit is true also

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... gle-market
Certainly.

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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:26 am

What Starmer’s speech shows is that Britain is a long way from even having a serious conversation about the trade offs involved in a closer relationship with the EU. It’ll be even longer before Britain will be in a position to make any of those decisions about what trade offs it’ll accept and start to negotiate.

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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by lpm » Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:55 am

Practical vs ideological.

Johnson won in 2019 on ideological. That loses its power with each passing year. Starmer wins in 2024 on practical. Tories and the media will try to position the debate as abstract ideology, the Labour politician in the room must immediately twist it back to practical.
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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:06 am

I saw some polling recently (which I'm struggling to find now, annoyingly) which showed that whilst people agree that Brexit has gone badly, and has made the cost of living crisis worse, a good chunk also don't really want anything to happen regarding it, consider the matter closed, remember the last six years exceptionally negatively and very strongly don't want the topic raised again.

Neither the Tories nor the LDs are clapping their hands at Labour's position on Brexit. The Tories are too busy discovering exactly how many of their MPs are sexual predators and the LDs are staying quiet whilst following a broadly similar path.
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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by plodder » Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:30 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:06 am
I saw some polling recently (which I'm struggling to find now, annoyingly) which showed that whilst people agree that Brexit has gone badly, and has made the cost of living crisis worse, a good chunk also don't really want anything to happen regarding it, consider the matter closed, remember the last six years exceptionally negatively and very strongly don't want the topic raised again.
Yeah, it's completely toxic and any sensible politician needs to stay well clear of the ideological stuff. Dull, practical, long grass stuff is the way to go.

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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by snoozeofreason » Tue Jul 05, 2022 1:38 pm

I think there is an economic argument to be made about sunk costs as well. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that the decision to leave the EU will result in a 4% drop in long run productivity, but two-fifths of that impact was incurred in the period before we signed the Trade and Cooperation Agreement in 1 January 2021 and results from the economic uncertainty in that period. Making a further change to our relationship with the EU won't get us that lost productivity back, and will result in a further period of uncertainty.
In six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them. The human body was knocked up pretty late on the Friday afternoon, with a deadline looming. How well do you expect it to work?

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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by dyqik » Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:34 pm

snoozeofreason wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 1:38 pm
I think there is an economic argument to be made about sunk costs as well. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that the decision to leave the EU will result in a 4% drop in long run productivity, but two-fifths of that impact was incurred in the period before we signed the Trade and Cooperation Agreement in 1 January 2021 and results from the economic uncertainty in that period. Making a further change to our relationship with the EU won't get us that lost productivity back, and will result in a further period of uncertainty.
I'm not sure you can call EFTA or EU membership "uncertainty". Almost all businesses know what trading under those rules is like. Yes, they will have lost ground during the time they weren't trading under those rules, but they will know what is coming back.

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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by snoozeofreason » Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:54 pm

dyqik wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:34 pm
snoozeofreason wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 1:38 pm
I think there is an economic argument to be made about sunk costs as well. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that the decision to leave the EU will result in a 4% drop in long run productivity, but two-fifths of that impact was incurred in the period before we signed the Trade and Cooperation Agreement in 1 January 2021 and results from the economic uncertainty in that period. Making a further change to our relationship with the EU won't get us that lost productivity back, and will result in a further period of uncertainty.
I'm not sure you can call EFTA or EU membership "uncertainty". Almost all businesses know what trading under those rules is like. Yes, they will have lost ground during the time they weren't trading under those rules, but they will know what is coming back.
There might not be the same kind of white-knuckle uncertainty that we had between 2016 and 2021, but there certainly would be a period in which no one knew what was happening or when. If we elected a government that was committed to EFTA or EU membership then all anyone would know is that we might be rejoining one of those organisations at some unknown time in the future. It's inconceivable that any government would take us back into either organisation without a referendum. It would take at least six months, and probably more like a year, to organise such a referendum. There would be no guarantee that the referendum would be won and, if it was won, there would be a period in which we negotiated our re-entry whose length no one could predict (apart from saying that we would probably be talking years rather than months). So there would indeed be a period of considerable uncertainty. Even if everyone was clear what the desired destination looked like, no one would know whether or when we were going to get there.
In six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them. The human body was knocked up pretty late on the Friday afternoon, with a deadline looming. How well do you expect it to work?

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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by Gfamily » Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:01 pm

snoozeofreason wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:54 pm
It's inconceivable that any government would take us back into either organisation without a referendum. I
We joined the original EFTA in 1960 without a referendum, so not inconceivable. It's simply re-establishing our status quo ante.
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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by snoozeofreason » Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:11 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:01 pm
snoozeofreason wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:54 pm
It's inconceivable that any government would take us back into either organisation without a referendum. I
We joined the original EFTA in 1960 without a referendum, so not inconceivable. It's simply re-establishing our status quo ante.
I did hesitate over that point, and in the first draft of the post I was going to say that it was inconceivable that we would rejoin the EU without a referendum and unlikely that we would do so for EFTA. I changed it because the last five or six years have entrenched the idea of our relationship with Europe as a central issue, and I can't really see anyone taking the view that EFTA was something that wouldn't now require a referendum, even if the perspective was different in 1960. And we wouldn't really be returning to the status quo ante, because the relationship between EFTA and the EU has changed since we left EFTA half a century ago (and there are also significant differences between EFTA countries regarding their relationship with the EU, which would add to the uncertainty of the situation).
In six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them. The human body was knocked up pretty late on the Friday afternoon, with a deadline looming. How well do you expect it to work?

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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by Little waster » Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:27 pm

snoozeofreason wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:11 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:01 pm
snoozeofreason wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:54 pm
It's inconceivable that any government would take us back into either organisation without a referendum. I
We joined the original EFTA in 1960 without a referendum, so not inconceivable. It's simply re-establishing our status quo ante.
I did hesitate over that point, and in the first draft of the post I was going to say that it was inconceivable that we would rejoin the EU without a referendum and unlikely that we would do so for EFTA. I changed it because the last five or six years have entrenched the idea of our relationship with Europe as a central issue, and I can't really see anyone taking the view that EFTA was something that wouldn't now require a referendum, even if the perspective was different in 1960.
Precedent is we don’t normally ratify trade deals by referendum and if a party wins a GE with a manifesto promise to rejoin EFTA then that would be argued as a sufficient democratic mandate to follow through with that.

Standing on a manifesto promise to hold a referendum on rejoining EFTA would be different but that would be a risky choice for the reasons expressed above with little real electoral advantage.

You could even argue rejoining EFTA is exactly what was mandated in 2016. 8-)
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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by Sciolus » Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:29 pm

snoozeofreason wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:11 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:01 pm
snoozeofreason wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:54 pm
It's inconceivable that any government would take us back into either organisation without a referendum. I
We joined the original EFTA in 1960 without a referendum, so not inconceivable. It's simply re-establishing our status quo ante.
I did hesitate over that point, and in the first draft of the post I was going to say that it was inconceivable that we would rejoin the EU without a referendum and unlikely that we would do so for EFTA. I changed it because the last five or six years have entrenched the idea of our relationship with Europe as a central issue, and I can't really see anyone taking the view that EFTA was something that wouldn't now require a referendum, even if the perspective was different in 1960.
We left the SM and CU without a referendum on the question, so what's sauce for the goose etc.

I agree that in principle changes with significant constitution significance should be difficult and require a proportionate popular mandate, but the UK constitution has been so shot to pieces by Johnson and May that we need to rebuild it first.

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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by Sciolus » Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:35 pm

In regard to the wider discussion, there are two distinct questions:
- What should Labour do if they ever get into government?
- How should Labour act to actually win an election?
The first is easy, the second rather harder. I tend to the opinion that a bland "do Brexit better" with a largely unspoken "by reversing it" is the least worst option given current politics.

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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by snoozeofreason » Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:45 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:29 pm
We left the SM and CU without a referendum on the question, so what's sauce for the goose etc.

I agree that in principle changes with significant constitution significance should be difficult and require a proportionate popular mandate, but the UK constitution has been so shot to pieces by Johnson and May that we need to rebuild it first.
Are you arguing that we ought to be able to rejoin EFTA without a referendum, or that we would be able to do so. It's true - and probably regrettable - that the 2016 referendum was not followed by any further referendum on the form of our exit from the EU, but no one pushed for such a referendum. Rejoining EFTA, in its current form, would potentially require us to adopt significant parts of EU law so, given the divisiveness of that issue I can't see that in practice any party is going to get anywhere in that direction without committing to a referendum.

Even if we did go into EFTA without a referendum, it wouldn't remove the uncertainty I mentioned because it's not true to say that everyone knows the rules of EFTA membership. The rules are different for different member organisations (there's also no guarantee that EFTA would let us in - Norway has, in the past, been a bit cagey on that point).
In six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them. The human body was knocked up pretty late on the Friday afternoon, with a deadline looming. How well do you expect it to work?

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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by Sciolus » Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:18 pm

snoozeofreason wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:45 pm
Are you arguing that we ought to be able to rejoin EFTA without a referendum, or that we would be able to do so.
Those are complex questions. On the first, I would like the UK to have a strong, clear, enforceable constitution, which was proof against the abuses we've seen in recent years, and would provide clear criteria for making substantial changes such as this. Since there is no prospect of that happening in my lifetime, I say f.ck it, rejoin based on a GE result.

On the second, my crystal ball is thoroughly opaque. A good Labour/progressive majority should be enough to carry it within the UK, but that seems unlikely this decade (although I haven't checked the news in the last 10 minutes). You are correct to also point to objections from the EU side, but I doubt they would be insurmountable.

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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by Lew Dolby » Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:21 pm

I think it's a huge assumption that EFTA would want us/let us in. Previous rumours were that countries like Norway wouldn't like us in as they see us trying to dominate rather than co-operate.
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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by snoozeofreason » Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:29 pm

Sciolus wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:18 pm
snoozeofreason wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:45 pm
Are you arguing that we ought to be able to rejoin EFTA without a referendum, or that we would be able to do so.
Those are complex questions. On the first, I would like the UK to have a strong, clear, enforceable constitution, which was proof against the abuses we've seen in recent years, and would provide clear criteria for making substantial changes such as this. Since there is no prospect of that happening in my lifetime, I say f.ck it, rejoin based on a GE result.
I assume that what hoping for here is a party going into a general election with a manifesto commitment to rejoin the EU/EFTA without a referendum. That was more or less the Lib Dem plan in 2019, but it was widely perceived as undemocratic (a little unfairly I thought), and more to the point, it didn't get them very far. It might be a bit more palatable if it was referendum-less entry to EFTA, rather than the EU, that was proposed but I still can't, in practice, imagine any party wanting to go down that route.
In six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them. The human body was knocked up pretty late on the Friday afternoon, with a deadline looming. How well do you expect it to work?

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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by Bird on a Fire » Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:34 pm

Yeah I don't think the UK will just waltz into any more substantial agreements with the EU after the past few years. Negotiations like that would probably take more than one premiership and be ripe with opportunities for humiliation.

And anyway after 2019 I don't think Labour will want to make the electoral risk of coming out as an anti-brexit party, having previously lost all their voters in key constituencies despite carefully not having been remainy enough to satisfy remainers at the last election.
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Re: Labour and Brexit

Post by dyqik » Tue Jul 05, 2022 11:21 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:34 pm
Yeah I don't think the UK will just waltz into any more substantial agreements with the EU after the past few years. Negotiations like that would probably take more than one premiership and be ripe with opportunities for humiliation.

And anyway after 2019 I don't think Labour will want to make the electoral risk of coming out as an anti-brexit party, having previously lost all their voters in key constituencies despite carefully not having been remainy enough to satisfy remainers at the last election.
Signing up to EFTA or the EU wouldn't take that much negotiation, just a willingness to accept the standard T&Cs. Those aren't bespoke trade agreements.

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