Who's next?

[plodder]

Is Hunt the new PM, just waiting for a few formalities to be sorted out in a little while?

Rehabilitating himself with the party membership is the only reason I can think for Hunt to become chancellor under Truss; he's from a fundamentally different part of the Tory party and been on the outside following his challenge against Boris. I can see him thinking that becoming chancellor could see him with a possible route back to power and/or relevance within the party.

But he probably wasn't going to lose his seat - he's my parent's MP and while he's more Brexity than the local population (who voted for Remain) he's not disliked enough for a local challenger to try and replace him; he'd only lose it if the party machine decided to replace him at the next election, and I think they have more significant issues.

What may happen is that after the next election (if and when the Tories have significant losses) Hunt becomes the prince of the moderate Tories and possibly leader of the opposition.

I think so too. I suspect Truss was told to install Hunt and they are already thinking about damage limitation following a Labour landslide.

[IvanV]

Haha honestly it’s f.cking bonkers. Will the 1922 change the rules to boot her out?

Maybe they don't need to. We don't know what the Conservative Party's rules say about when they can first have a vote of confidence in new leader. We've never been told, and the rules are not in the public domain. The party has been talking about an early vote of no confidence, so maybe they can kick out a new leader fairly quickly. We do know the rules say that a leader who has survived a vote of no confidence can't suffer another vote for 12 months, because we have been told they say that. We do not know if that applies likewise to a new leader. My guess would be that the rules are silent on the point, and so maybe you can argue it both ways.

[dyqik]

There's also the situation that if the 1922 Committee say no to 50 letters of no confidence, it potentially takes less than 50 Tories voting against her to pass a motion of no confidence in the House.

How many would take that extra step is unknown, but it makes a fairly strong incentive for the 1922 Committee to find a way to hold a party NC ballot.

[plodder]

My guess is that the interpretation of the rules will entirely depend on Truss’s day to day performance.

[Little waster]

We've never been told, and the rules are not in the public domain.

Because it's clearly vitally important that information remains secret from the public ...

It would be a lot easier to not treat Tories as pantomime villains if they stopped, you know, twiddling their moustaches while tying young women to train tracks and stuff.

[monkey]

There's also the situation that if the 1922 Committee say no to 50 letters of no confidence, it potentially takes less than 50 Tories voting against her to pass a motion of no confidence in the House.

How many would take that extra step is unknown, but it makes a fairly strong incentive for the 1922 Committee to find a way to hold a party NC ballot.

That sort of thing is risky, cos it would likely lead to a General Election, and no Tory MP who pays attention to the polls would want that at the moment*. More likely they'll rebel on smallish bills to show that potentially she won't be able to pass the Important Stuff, forcing her to resign. And they only need to do that if calls for her to f.ck off don't work.


*Ousting Liz might lead to the public shouting louder that they want a GE, cos of mandates, and that might get hard to ignore, but they'll do their best.

[temptar]

From the outside, the Tories still have options that could make things worse.

In short, if Suella Braverman is next, things won’t be getting better. And there is always Dorries, Bridgen and Baker. Oh and Gove.

Hunt looks sensible because compared to what has gone before him, he is. Because Johnson cleaned out the actually sensible ones three years ago.

You guys need an election. We guys cannot see you getting one.

[lpm]

The levers that pry Pryme Ministers from Number 10 are:

- terrible opinion polls
- by-election defeats
- Council by-election defeats
- trouncing in the May local elections
- scandal
- Cabinet Ministers resigning

We've currently only got the first of these, but bad enough to push the first wave of confidence letters to the 1922.

My guess is we'll need to wait to May to get a wider range of levers in action.

[lpm]

I've got a local by-election coming up here.

Was 52% CON, 25% GREEN, 23% LD last time out.

Five candidates this time, adding in LAB and Local Residents NIMBY Group. The leaflets from all are piling in.

For max lols, I'm hoping for 21% CON, 20% LD, GREEN and NIMBY, 19% LAB.

[IvanV]

The levers that pry Pryme Ministers from Number 10 are:

- terrible opinion polls
- by-election defeats
- Council by-election defeats
- trouncing in the May local elections
- scandal
- Cabinet Ministers resigning

We've currently only got the first of these, but bad enough to push the first wave of confidence letters to the 1922.

My guess is we'll need to wait to May to get a wider range of levers in action.

The Tories generally get rid of their leader only when it has become quite clear that the leader is materially more unpopular with the electorate than the party itself is. It can take a while to convince themselves that situation isn't just temporary.

But they will also want to see that they have a path to a more electable leader. That is a large consideration just now. They just decapitated Johnson, and discovered that the path led somewhere else. Labour had a similar journey a few years ago, too.

So for example, Major didn't go until he lost a landslide general election, even though during his term the Tories lost control of every council except Buckinghamshire. He was then replaced by a series of ineffective leaders (Hague, Duncan Smith, Howard). So they didn't have anything much better to replace him with. Which might be why he hung on to fight a second general election.

Truss may be turning into a puppet leader who'll do what the powers behind the throne tell her to do on the big issues. If she consents to play that part and does it well enough, maybe they'll prefer living with that for a while to the embarrassment of ditching her so soon after electing her.

[dyqik]

There's also the situation that if the 1922 Committee say no to 50 letters of no confidence, it potentially takes less than 50 Tories voting against her to pass a motion of no confidence in the House.

How many would take that extra step is unknown, but it makes a fairly strong incentive for the 1922 Committee to find a way to hold a party NC ballot.

That sort of thing is risky, cos it would likely lead to a General Election, and no Tory MP who pays attention to the polls would want that at the moment*. More likely they'll rebel on smallish bills to show that potentially she won't be able to pass the Important Stuff, forcing her to resign. And they only need to do that if calls for her to f.ck off don't work.


*Ousting Liz might lead to the public shouting louder that they want a GE, cos of mandates, and that might get hard to ignore, but they'll do their best.

There seems to be enough disgust with how things are going that many Tory MPs actively want to lose their seats, just to get it over with and move onto their lucrative directorships.

[Trinucleus]

I wonder how the membership will like seeing the MPs basically saying 'you got it wrong' and ditching their choice

[Sciolus]

Truss may be turning into a puppet leader who'll do what the powers behind the throne tell her to do on the big issues. If she consents to play that part and does it well enough, maybe they'll prefer living with that for a while to the embarrassment of ditching her so soon after electing her.

There are definitely people who want a massive programme of trashing the country and will find the current shitshow and excellent way of going about it. There are financial benefits for those who know how to exploit economic chaos. And the sunset clause in the Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill will tear up huge swathes of regulations unless they are actively retained, which will easy be avoided while everyone is distracted by Truss's latest dead elephant (like a dead cat, but more so).

[temptar]

I want to know whose choice Hunt was. Because I doubt he was Truss’s choice and I strongly doubt he was the ERG choice. So who has the upper hand atm?

[Little waster]

I want to know whose choice Hunt was. Because I doubt he was Truss’s choice and I strongly doubt he was the ERG choice. So who has the upper hand atm?

Murdoch?

[plodder]

I wonder how the membership will like seeing the MPs basically saying 'you got it wrong' and ditching their choice

Didn't go very well for Labour

hashtagJC4PM

[plodder]

I want to know whose choice Hunt was. Because I doubt he was Truss’s choice and I strongly doubt he was the ERG choice. So who has the upper hand atm?

The grandees who are still in touch with the bulk of the party. The people representing the big donors. They've clearly formed a tight group and are telling Truss what she must do.

[temptar]

It seems to me control has started to shift back towards the centre tbh. Which suggests away from Steve Baker and his friends.

I find that interesting given the last five or six years.

[plodder]

It seems to me control has started to shift back towards the centre tbh. Which suggests away from Steve Baker and his friends.

I find that interesting given the last five or six years.

Yes, I agree, especially as I think he’s in the government now rather than a back bencher? CBA to check but there’s a very clear sense of party before politics going on right now.

[temptar]

Blunt and Bridgen and some MP I haven’t yet heard of.

Blunt and Bridgen are from the Brexit side iirc, Bridgen being particularly known to us in Ireland for reasons of surprising lack of knowledge about how citizenship works.

[jimbob]

Blunt and Bridgen and some MP I haven’t yet heard of.

Blunt and Bridgen are from the Brexit side iirc, Bridgen being particularly known to us in Ireland for reasons of unsurprising lack of knowledge about how citizenshipanything works.

Minor corrections for virtually* anyone left in the Tory parliamentary party after Johnson's purges


*Rees-Mogg does know, but pretends to not. Hiding his radical rightwing authoritarianism behind a laughable facade.

[IvanV]

We've never been told, and the rules are not in the public domain.

Because it's clearly vitally important that information remains secret from the public ...

BBC R4 news just said that she can't be challenged for a year unless the rules are changed. That's the first time I've heard that clearly stated from any plausible source, despite having tried quite hard to find such a clear statement in the past. But it's an obvious trap to fall into, so it is possible the journo just thinks he knows it and is mistaken. Or alternatively, they have now been briefed by a reliable source.

[plodder]

She's going to have to resign, she's being completely humiliated. Although if the day collar stories are true perhaps that's what's keeping her going.

eta potentially nsfw if you are about to hit google

[lpm]

Yep. It's true. Zoom in on a photo of her necklace and it says "Property of Rupert Murdoch".

[plodder]

Yep. It's true. Zoom in on a photo of her necklace and it says "Property of Jeremy Hunt".

Just gave that a little tidy up for you