Who's next?

[Opti]

Amazing stuff from Conservative Home

Particularly the last 4 paragraphs.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Imagine sitting down with your 2012 self and trying to explain to them what the last ten years involves.

[El Pollo Diablo]

rdt_20221021_2144169127920896394810328.jpg (93.77 KiB) Viewed 1210 times

[Opti]

Nicked.
That is excellent.

[Ken McKenzie]

Ken!!!

This feels like the return of the great prophet Zarquon...

Why, was Zarquon also a tedious argumentative old git?

[lpm]

Reasonable chance this all ends by Saturday lunchtime.

Sunak has 100. He gives a little declaration speech, he collects a few more and he starts to snowball past 120.

Mordor sees she can't make and does the deal. Sunak approaches 50%.

Johnson is fundamentally a lazy indecisive coward. He waivers. Before he gets it together, Sunak looks like a winner. Johnson flees the battlefield.

Only Sunak left. Everyone else joins the train in a hurry.

Official count 2 pm Monday, visit the King by 3 pm.

[Ken McKenzie]

Reasonable chance this all ends by Saturday lunchtime.

Sunak has 100. He gives a little declaration speech, he collects a few more and he starts to snowball past 120.

Mordor sees she can't make and does the deal. Sunak approaches 50%.

Johnson is fundamentally a lazy indecisive coward. He waivers. Before he gets it together, Sunak looks like a winner. Johnson flees the battlefield.

Only Sunak left. Everyone else joins the train in a hurry.

Official count 2 pm Monday, visit the King by 3 pm.

That's a pretty shrewd call, I think.

[monkey]

Reasonable chance this all ends by Saturday lunchtime.

Sunak has 100. He gives a little declaration speech, he collects a few more and he starts to snowball past 120.

Mordor sees she can't make and does the deal. Sunak approaches 50%.

Johnson is fundamentally a lazy indecisive coward. He waivers. Before he gets it together, Sunak looks like a winner. Johnson flees the battlefield.

Only Sunak left. Everyone else joins the train in a hurry.

Official count 2 pm Monday, visit the King by 3 pm.

Nah, Johnson won't quit. I bet he reckons that the membership would pick him, and he might well be right about that. In which case, the best chance of keeping him out of No. 10 (if he gets the 100 nominations) is to make sure he comes 3rd in the MPs ballot, so Mordaunt won't quit either.

[lpm]

Being on holiday in the Caribbean cost him. You've got to be face to face with MPs. And being caught bunking off work...

Mordoubt mathematically can't reach 100. Sunak has 150 of the 350 sewn up.

Sunak needs the killer instinct. Dirty tricks. Plenty to aim for.

[Grumble]

Reasonable chance this all ends by Saturday lunchtime.

Sunak has 100. He gives a little declaration speech, he collects a few more and he starts to snowball past 120.

Mordor sees she can't make and does the deal. Sunak approaches 50%.

Johnson is fundamentally a lazy indecisive coward. He waivers. Before he gets it together, Sunak looks like a winner. Johnson flees the battlefield.

Only Sunak left. Everyone else joins the train in a hurry.

Official count 2 pm Monday, visit the King by 3 pm.

Nah, Johnson won't quit. I bet he reckons that the membership would pick him, and he might well be right about that. In which case, the best chance of keeping him out of No. 10 (if he gets the 100 nominations) is to make sure he comes 3rd in the MPs ballot, so Mordaunt won't quit either.

I agree with Monkey except that Mordaunt probably won’t get 100. Feels like weakness to have declared she was running so early. Boris won’t quit if he gets over 100 because he wants to go to the members.

[monkey]

Being on holiday in the Caribbean cost him. You've got to be face to face with MPs. And being caught bunking off work...

Mordoubt mathematically can't reach 100. Sunak has 150 of the 350 sewn up.

Sunak needs the killer instinct. Dirty tricks. Plenty to aim for.

Dirty tricks can be used to make sure Mordaunt gets 100 noms, or making sure Johnson comes 3rd in the ballot.

But if Johnson gets more than 120 nominations (1/3 of the MPs), he's going to come 2nd in the MPs vote, and it'll go to the membership. 119 is a really important number.

[nekomatic]

Why, was Zarquon also a tedious argumentative old git?

Dunno but if I remember correctly he turns up about five seconds before the universe ends.

I mean, it’s good to see you and all, but I’m not sure it’s worth that.

[Grumble]

Being on holiday in the Caribbean cost him. You've got to be face to face with MPs. And being caught bunking off work...

Mordoubt mathematically can't reach 100. Sunak has 150 of the 350 sewn up.

Sunak needs the killer instinct. Dirty tricks. Plenty to aim for.

Dirty tricks can be used to make sure Mordaunt gets 100 noms, or making sure Johnson comes 3rd in the ballot.

But if Johnson gets more than 120 nominations (1/3 of the MPs), he's going to come 2nd in the MPs vote, and it'll go to the membership. 119 is a really important number.

Dirty tricks and conservatives? I can’t believe you would impugn their names in such a way.

[lpm]

Being on holiday in the Caribbean cost him. You've got to be face to face with MPs. And being caught bunking off work...

Mordoubt mathematically can't reach 100. Sunak has 150 of the 350 sewn up.

Sunak needs the killer instinct. Dirty tricks. Plenty to aim for.

Dirty tricks can be used to make sure Mordaunt gets 100 noms, or making sure Johnson comes 3rd in the ballot.

But if Johnson gets more than 120 nominations (1/3 of the MPs), he's going to come 2nd in the MPs vote, and it'll go to the membership. 119 is a really important number.

No, sorry, but 120 is irrelevant. That's a mathematical construct, not political reality.

It's not going to divide into rough thirds, 140-120-100 say. A noisy dataset never will.

Sunak is too strong. Mordung is too weak. Snowballing happens. As Johnson said, when a herd moves... And if you look like a loser, you lose.

The way for Sunak to win is by being the dominant silverback. Intimidate the betas. Be forceful, inflate support, stare them down without needing to fight. Look like the leader and Johnson won't make 100. And if Johnson does make it, the only way for Sunak to win the membership is with a commanding lead in MPs.

Johnson will be landing at about 7 am Saturday. By 9 am Sunak needs to announce he's already at the 150 mark. Might even be true, but he should say it anyway.

[monkey]

Being on holiday in the Caribbean cost him. You've got to be face to face with MPs. And being caught bunking off work...

Mordoubt mathematically can't reach 100. Sunak has 150 of the 350 sewn up.

Sunak needs the killer instinct. Dirty tricks. Plenty to aim for.

Dirty tricks can be used to make sure Mordaunt gets 100 noms, or making sure Johnson comes 3rd in the ballot.

But if Johnson gets more than 120 nominations (1/3 of the MPs), he's going to come 2nd in the MPs vote, and it'll go to the membership. 119 is a really important number.

No, sorry, but 120 is irrelevant. That's a mathematical construct, not political reality.

That's why it's an important number.

If Johnson gets support of >1/3 +1 of the MPs, he comes 2nd and it goes to the membership, assuming all 3 get past the nomination stage. Because there is no way that the other two can both beat him. If he gets there, he's through to the membership stage no matter what happens to the other two. If I were him, that would be my target.

But I'm not convinced he's going to beat 100, but won't be surprised if he does.

[dyqik]

I would not be surprised if he goes to the members and wins. And then gets thrown out of Parliament a month later.

[Bird on a Fire]

Being on holiday in the Caribbean cost him. You've got to be face to face with MPs. And being caught bunking off work...

Mordoubt mathematically can't reach 100. Sunak has 150 of the 350 sewn up.

Sunak needs the killer instinct. Dirty tricks. Plenty to aim for.

Dirty tricks can be used to make sure Mordaunt gets 100 noms, or making sure Johnson comes 3rd in the ballot.

But if Johnson gets more than 120 nominations (1/3 of the MPs), he's going to come 2nd in the MPs vote, and it'll go to the membership. 119 is a really important number.

No, sorry, but 120 is irrelevant. That's a mathematical construct, not political reality.

It's not going to divide into rough thirds, 140-120-100 say. A noisy dataset never will.

Sunak is too strong. Mordung is too weak. Snowballing happens. As Johnson said, when a herd moves... And if you look like a loser, you lose.

The way for Sunak to win is by being the dominant silverback. Intimidate the betas. Be forceful, inflate support, stare them down without needing to fight. Look like the leader and Johnson won't make 100. And if Johnson does make it, the only way for Sunak to win the membership is with a commanding lead in MPs.

Johnson will be landing at about 7 am Saturday. By 9 am Sunak needs to announce he's already at the 150 mark. Might even be true, but he should say it anyway.

"Preferential attachment" is the term used in analysis of social networks. Aka "rich get richer" or "the Matthew effect".

Nobody wants to back a loser. Plus, attracting MPs is an honest signal of Subak's value, and therefore useful information for waiverers.

[Millennie Al]

Being on holiday in the Caribbean cost him. You've got to be face to face with MPs. And being caught bunking off work...

I thought for a moment you had written "bonking off work"!

[EACLucifer]

Would I be right in thinking that Ashata Murty, Sunak's tax-dodging wife doesn't actually have investments in Russia any more, but only because the company stopped trading there, not because she did anything to divest herself of them?

[plodder]

The dirty tricks have started. Rumours that Sunak will offer Johnson Home Sec to unite the party. I bet Johnson started the rumour. Time pressure on MPs for sure.

[lpm]

Sunak started that rumour. The next level of the trick is to rumour that your opponent has taken a job and is about to endorse you.

I'm assuming an October surprise against Johnson. Leak the holiday was funded by Gary Glitter.

Placing a turncoat is a good one. Get someone to say he's a Johnson supporter - but then publicly withdraw in disgust and "unite" around Sunak.

Gove must have a knife to hand and an area of Johnson’s back selected.

[lpm]

Oh, and getting a booing team is a must - "general public" spontaneously booing Johnson.

[Tessa K]

Being an ex PM is a nice little earner

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63350359

[El Pollo Diablo]

Johnson will win. It'll go to the members and Johnson won't back out because he's Boris Johnson, and he'll win and the sh.t show will continue with the privileges committee

[El Pollo Diablo]

And, just to back that up
https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/15 ... 7519693824