Indecision 2022

[Bird on a Fire]

I'm beginning to think bribing officials might be one of the most effective uses of money for environmental causes.

How much does Manchin get from coal? Decarbonising the US economy is worth many multiples of that to the world.

I've long advocated that.
He gets bribes (albeit publicly declared ones with names like 'donation' or 'campaign fundraising') anyway, and it would be much cheaper to bribe him to pretend to be a reasonable human being. Sure it might not work for all things, but it probably would for quite a few things.
If it looks like he's going to lose anyway at this next election, it might even be possible for the democrats to persuade him to act like a Democrat for a few months without bribes.

Manchin runs a coal business. One that provides the shittiest grade, dirtiest coal available. He's not going to vote against fossil fuel interests.

Buy his business off him (and close it).

[WFJ]

I've long advocated that.
He gets bribes (albeit publicly declared ones with names like 'donation' or 'campaign fundraising') anyway, and it would be much cheaper to bribe him to pretend to be a reasonable human being. Sure it might not work for all things, but it probably would for quite a few things.
If it looks like he's going to lose anyway at this next election, it might even be possible for the democrats to persuade him to act like a Democrat for a few months without bribes.

Manchin runs a coal business. One that provides the shittiest grade, dirtiest coal available. He's not going to vote against fossil fuel interests.

Buy his business off him (and close it).

I wonder what pork they've thrown him. Or what kompromat they've found.

[Bird on a Fire]

It's good news anyway, and just in time for the midterms - unless Sinema f.cks it up still.

[Little waster]

Yay a new Centrist party to spilt the non-loony vote further said no one ... ever.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ical-party

You could sort of see the point of something like the SDP or Macron's En Marche where the main two-parties were seen as having abandoned the middle-ground but that isn't really the case in the US where you have a now openly fascistic Republican Party up against a dull managerialist Democrat Party, too lacking in self-confidence to actually do anything.

The mushy centre in the US is already well-served with the usual disappointing results and in a country so famously hostile to third parties I can't see what they expect to do beyond splitting the Democratic Party vote further and let the increasingly extremist Repugs get elected with even less support than normal.

[dyqik]

Yay a new Centrist party to spilt the non-loony vote further said no one ... ever.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ical-party

You could sort of see the point of something like the SDP or Macron's En Marche where the main two-parties were seen as having abandoned the middle-ground but that isn't really the case in the US where you have a now openly fascistic Republican Party up against a dull managerialist Democrat Party, too lacking in self-confidence to actually do anything.

The mushy centre in the US is already well-served with the usual disappointing results and in a country so famously hostile to third parties I can't see what they expect to do beyond splitting the Democratic Party vote further and let the increasingly extremist Repugs get elected with even less support than normal.

Every presidential election cycle someone tries this. Everytime they make less difference than the libertarian party.

The most recent exception being Ralph Nader, who had 30 years of public political activism behind him.

I fully expect their seven candidates to come in behind a few perennial write-ins. Or Trump if the GOP manage to ditch him.

[dyqik]

In any case, the US already has four national parties.

The first problem for this party is that they haven't been running candidates for local posts for a decade. No one is going to want to vote in their primaries if they don't get to decide who the local state rep, school board or registrar of deeds candidate is, because they haven't got candidates that far down the ballot.

[Brightonian]

Vote for Eric

[headshot]

Just resurrecting this thread for the impending mega-uber-clusterf.ck.

[lpm]

Wow.

Not a clusterf.ck.

[Woodchopper]

Wow.

Not a clusterf.ck.

Not yet.

It’ll go down to the wire in the senate races in Georgia and Nevada. Democrats are ahead but not by much.

NY Times is predicting Republican control of the House.

[lpm]

Senate:

GA will go to another run-off, neither will get >50%.

AZ and NV could be days away.

PA is a great story, the sort they'll make a daytime movie out of.

House:

Polls showed Republican majority of up to 40. Winning by 5, say, is pretty funny because the loony wing will be uncontrollable. In a mid term with the following headwinds, it's unexpectedly not a disaster:

Gas prices
Inflation
Economic worries
Gas prices
Biden poor popularity
Gas prices

Governors:

Where a lot of the good news lies. Good holds, some wins. Fascists losing. AZ could be good news.

But Florida is lost to reason forever, no longer a close state. Texas is as strongly red as ever.

[lpm]

The underlying story seems to be that extreme MAGA Republicans did worse than the normal MAGA Republicans.

[lpm]

Boebert is going to win. Boo.

[lpm]

AZ looks f.cked, both Senate and Governor.

[Woodchopper]

But Florida is lost to reason forever, no longer a close state.

Just been chatting to a friend from Florida. He puts it down to a combination of the hispanic population and retirees in FL now being solidly republican. The state is bad news for the Democrats if it has become another solidly red state with a high population.

[Little waster]

But Florida is lost to reason forever, no longer a close state.

another solidly red state with a high population.

Although TBF the ongoing wave of unconnected alligators-and-crystal-meth accidents is doing it's part to keep that down.

[lpm]

Someone on twitter said Florida's loss is offset by the slow improvement in MI, WI, PA and MN. That block becoming reliably Democrat would be a big help.

[Woodchopper]

Someone on twitter said Florida's loss is offset by the slow improvement in MI, WI, PA and MN. That block becoming reliably Democrat would be a big help.

The PA result is good, but the Republican is slightly ahead in the WI senate race. No senate election in MN and MI this year.

In the House its looking like

MN 4D, 4R
WI 5R, 2D 1 not declared but 'likely R' by the NYT.
MI 5R, 6D 2 not declared but NYT has one 'likely D' and one 'leaning R'.
PA 7R, 5D, 4 not declared but NYT has four 'likely D'.

So on that basis, WI definately isn't part of a Democrat Bloc. MN is tied and MI pretty close.

Only PA looks to be part of a Democrat bloc.

Obviously we can't predict too much about what a presidential election might look like in MN, WI and MI. But the three don't look like a blue bloc.

[lpm]

But look at the WI and MI governor and state results. Big disappointment for MAGA.

[Woodchopper]

But look at the WI and MI governor and state results. Big disappointment for MAGA.

Yes, democrats winning MI and WI governors. But still I don't think that's enough to call them as part of a blue bloc. More like WI, MI and MN are still in play.

[dyqik]

WI is gerrymandered beyond belief at the congressional and state house/Senate level. But it seems purple at the statewide level.

[lpm]

Trump had a bad night. It would be awful if a storm wiped out Mar-a-Lago tomorrow then he got indicted on Friday.

[dyqik]

Trump had a bad night. It would be awful if a storm wiped out Mar-a-Lago tomorrow then he got indicted on Friday.

We may need Trump hanging around to prevent the coronation of DeSantis as the GOP 2024 candidate.

[lpm]

DeSantis is best seen as a variant. Trump-MAGA is the original virus that went pandemic. DeSantis-MAGA is now growing faster but will it replace the original? It flourishes in down in the swamp but can it get established elsewhere? My guess is the Trump-MAGA virus will continue to dominate infections because little immunity has been established.

But it's all the same disease.

[dyqik]

DeSantis is best seen as a variant. Trump-MAGA is the original virus that went pandemic. DeSantis-MAGA is now growing faster but will it replace the original? It flourishes in down in the swamp but can it get established elsewhere? My guess is the Trump-MAGA virus will continue to dominate infections because little immunity has been established.

But it's all the same disease.

Having one part of the disease fighting another part of the disease is useful though. Particularly as they try to out-MAGA each other in a primary.