Indecision 2022

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dyqik
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Indecision 2022

Post by dyqik » Mon Jul 11, 2022 2:30 pm

Right now in the US I'm seeing a fair amount of political commentary about how the Democrats are sure to lose the House in November, and that Senate is up for grabs, based on Biden's low popularity.

I find this discussion a little bit silly, because it doesn't seem to take into account the fact that many sure Democrat voters aren't that happen with Biden because he's too centrist and not taking a hard enough line against the GOP fascists, while wavering on campaign promises like student debt reduction. This probably won't carry over into the House or Senate campaigns, where candidates will be running on implementing exactly that kind of thing, and on opposing GOP extremists.

Or am I being overly optimistic?

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by dyqik » Mon Jul 11, 2022 2:35 pm

Another random factor that comes to mind is that Russian misinformation campaigns are likely to be hampered this time around, due to internet sanctions and distractions.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by dyqik » Mon Jul 11, 2022 2:46 pm


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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by Bird on a Fire » Mon Jul 11, 2022 3:06 pm

The president's unpopularity will definitely hit Democrat support/turnout I'm afraid.

Local candidates will have to convince voters that they're not like the current or previous D presidents, and actually have the wherewithal to get things done.
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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by philbo » Mon Jul 11, 2022 3:47 pm

Might the current Supreme Court's mission to return to the 19th Century help Democrat turnout?

I'm clutching at straws here, obvs.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by monkey » Mon Jul 11, 2022 4:09 pm

dyqik wrote:
Mon Jul 11, 2022 2:30 pm
Or am I being overly optimistic?
Yes. Biden is the figurehead of The Party, many who are not happy with his performance will carry that through to candidates at other levels. Possibly enough to swing a few seats. They might not vote Republican, but not turning out is half as bad.



(Not part of the reply, just a point of interest) The President's party normally does badly in the midterms - clicky.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by monkey » Mon Jul 11, 2022 4:11 pm

philbo wrote:
Mon Jul 11, 2022 3:47 pm
Might the current Supreme Court's mission to return to the 19th Century help Democrat turnout?

I'm clutching at straws here, obvs.
That's Biden's current line. He keeps saying "vote" at the moment.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by monkey » Mon Jul 11, 2022 4:14 pm

Never mind, confused myself.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by monkey » Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:10 pm

I think a lot of the Democrat's woes can be blamed on Joe Manchin. His obstruction is why it seems like they can't get anything done.

He's doing it more.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by Grumble » Fri Jul 15, 2022 10:56 pm

monkey wrote:
Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:10 pm
I think a lot of the Democrat's woes can be blamed on Joe Manchin. His obstruction is why it seems like they can't get anything done.

He's doing it more.

clicky
No. No clicky.
A bit churlish

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Jul 16, 2022 10:30 am

Can they not just sack that corrupt piece of sh.t already?

Or Fred Hampton him?
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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Jul 16, 2022 12:17 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sat Jul 16, 2022 10:30 am
Can they not just sack that corrupt piece of sh.t already?

Or Fred Hampton him?
And replace him with what, you blithering idiot? You are aware he's in West Virginia, right? A state Trump won by thirty nine points. A state where no Democrat presidential contender has carried so much as a county in more than a decade.

Manchin sometimes votes with the Democrats, indeed he enabled some crucial legislation and judicial appointments. Get rid of him, and you get a Republican, who wouldn't vote with the Democrats at all.

I don't like the man, but there's only one way round this, and that's to render him irrelevant by winning other seats so he isn't the deciding vote.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:32 pm

I was thinking of replacing him with a different (better) democrat.

I assume by calling me a blithering idiot you're asserting that
- there is no mechanism for the Democrats to fire and replace a senator without triggering an election, and
- they would necessarily lose that election if they didn't field an equivalently fossil-friendly candidate.

Is that the case?
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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by lpm » Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:49 pm

You think Senators can be fired and replaced?

In West Virginia, if Manchin falls in a pit of boiling acid then the state Governor appoints a replacement for the remaining term till 2024 (there wouldn't be a special election, the equivalent of our bye-elections, because there's less than 2.5 years of term remaining).

Obviously the Democrats will lose the election in 2024, unless they choose Donald Jr or Ivanka as candidate.
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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by Stranger Mouse » Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:52 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:32 pm
I was thinking of replacing him with a different (better) democrat.

I assume by calling me a blithering idiot you're asserting that
- there is no mechanism for the Democrats to fire and replace a senator without triggering an election, and
- they would necessarily lose that election if they didn't field an equivalently fossil-friendly candidate.

Is that the case?
I don’t agree with EAC’s aggressive use of language but he is right. The Democrats can’t fire Manchin - they can only turn him into an Independent or a Republican. Also there is no way a more left wing democrat would win that seat.The only chance is to get more Democrats in other seats so he becomes less important.

I think there is an argument that the Democrats should stop letting Manchin doing his “Lucy and the football” thing over and over where he appears he may vote in a certain way if there are negotiations and then he doesn’t. But at the end of the day we are stuck with him for now.
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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:54 pm

Wack. And even if he fell in the boiling acid pit I assume the governor would appoint a republican.

A shame they don't have "whips" over there to blackmail him with something.
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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:56 pm

I'm beginning to think bribing officials might be one of the most effective uses of money for environmental causes.

How much does Manchin get from coal? Decarbonising the US economy is worth many multiples of that to the world.
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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by EACLucifer » Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:22 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:32 pm
I was thinking of replacing him with a different (better) democrat.

I assume by calling me a blithering idiot you're asserting that
- there is no mechanism for the Democrats to fire and replace a senator without triggering an election, and
- they would necessarily lose that election if they didn't field an equivalently fossil-friendly candidate.

Is that the case?
Yes on both counts.

I understand the desire to see the Democrats "Do Something", but please, for the love of all that is unholy, check what is within their power to do before demanding they do it.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:43 pm

Wasn't demanding nothing.
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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by Woodchopper » Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:52 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:54 pm
Wack. And even if he fell in the boiling acid pit I assume the governor would appoint a republican.

A shame they don't have "whips" over there to blackmail him with something.
They do have party whips and a well developed system for finding compromising material.

Possible that Manchin just hasn’t done anything blackmail worthy.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by Stranger Mouse » Sun Jul 17, 2022 6:45 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:52 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:54 pm
Wack. And even if he fell in the boiling acid pit I assume the governor would appoint a republican.

A shame they don't have "whips" over there to blackmail him with something.
They do have party whips and a well developed system for finding compromising material.

Possible that Manchin just hasn’t done anything blackmail worthy.
Or that those with Republican (GOP) tendencies are beyond shame
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by Herainestold » Sun Jul 17, 2022 6:59 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sun Jul 17, 2022 3:52 pm

Possible that Manchin just hasn’t done anything blackmail worthy.
That seems extremely unlikely.
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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by tom p » Mon Jul 18, 2022 2:54 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:56 pm
I'm beginning to think bribing officials might be one of the most effective uses of money for environmental causes.

How much does Manchin get from coal? Decarbonising the US economy is worth many multiples of that to the world.
I've long advocated that.
He gets bribes (albeit publicly declared ones with names like 'donation' or 'campaign fundraising') anyway, and it would be much cheaper to bribe him to pretend to be a reasonable human being. Sure it might not work for all things, but it probably would for quite a few things.
If it looks like he's going to lose anyway at this next election, it might even be possible for the democrats to persuade him to act like a Democrat for a few months without bribes.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by WFJ » Mon Jul 18, 2022 3:05 pm

tom p wrote:
Mon Jul 18, 2022 2:54 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:56 pm
I'm beginning to think bribing officials might be one of the most effective uses of money for environmental causes.

How much does Manchin get from coal? Decarbonising the US economy is worth many multiples of that to the world.
I've long advocated that.
He gets bribes (albeit publicly declared ones with names like 'donation' or 'campaign fundraising') anyway, and it would be much cheaper to bribe him to pretend to be a reasonable human being. Sure it might not work for all things, but it probably would for quite a few things.
If it looks like he's going to lose anyway at this next election, it might even be possible for the democrats to persuade him to act like a Democrat for a few months without bribes.
Manchin runs a coal business. One that provides the shittiest grade, dirtiest coal available. He's not going to vote against fossil fuel interests.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by tom p » Mon Jul 18, 2022 3:12 pm

WFJ wrote:
Mon Jul 18, 2022 3:05 pm
tom p wrote:
Mon Jul 18, 2022 2:54 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:56 pm
I'm beginning to think bribing officials might be one of the most effective uses of money for environmental causes.

How much does Manchin get from coal? Decarbonising the US economy is worth many multiples of that to the world.
I've long advocated that.
He gets bribes (albeit publicly declared ones with names like 'donation' or 'campaign fundraising') anyway, and it would be much cheaper to bribe him to pretend to be a reasonable human being. Sure it might not work for all things, but it probably would for quite a few things.
If it looks like he's going to lose anyway at this next election, it might even be possible for the democrats to persuade him to act like a Democrat for a few months without bribes.
Manchin runs a coal business. One that provides the shittiest grade, dirtiest coal available. He's not going to vote against fossil fuel interests.
True, but he's a c.nt about loads of things. Maybe some of his principles have a price

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