Indecision 2022

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monkey
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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by monkey » Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:03 pm

Looks like good news on abortion rights. Kentucky has just rejected their constitutional ban, and it looks like Montana will reject theirs.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by monkey » Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:33 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:54 am
Boebert is going to win. Boo.
That one's looking pretty close right now.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by monkey » Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:34 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 8:35 am
AZ looks f.cked, both Senate and Governor.
This one too.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by lpm » Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:39 pm

monkey wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:33 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:54 am
Boebert is going to win. Boo.
That one's looking pretty close right now.
Boebert +0.3% maybe? Needs an expert who knows exactly how some cluster of houses in the Rockies tends to vote.

ETA NYT has it Boebert +0.7%.
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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by monkey » Wed Nov 09, 2022 3:17 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:39 pm
monkey wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:33 pm
lpm wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:54 am
Boebert is going to win. Boo.
That one's looking pretty close right now.
Boebert +0.3% maybe? Needs an expert who knows exactly how some cluster of houses in the Rockies tends to vote.

ETA NYT has it Boebert +0.7%.
There's plenty of the error on Frisch's side of the line though.

Right now, I won't be surprised if she squeaks in. But I also won't be surprised if Frisch squeaks in too.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:18 pm

For the senate the NY Times now has Arizona ‘leaning democrat’ while Georgia and Nevada are ‘tossup’. The democrat candidate is ahead in Arizona by about 90 000 votes after 68 % have been counted,

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:20 pm

To take control of the Senate the Republicans need all four of those that haven’t declared. That wouldn’t be good odds if they were coin tosses. But the elections are of course much more complicated

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by dyqik » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:23 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:18 pm
For the senate the NY Times now has Arizona ‘leaning democrat’ while Georgia and Nevada are ‘tossup’. The democrat candidate is ahead in Arizona by about 90 000 votes after 68 % have been counted,
The most likely outcome in Georgia is that it goes to a run-off in December, where only the objectively terrible R candidate and the D incumbent will be on the ballot. This is probably going to make it much harder for Rs to turn out their voters for the run-off - particularly if Ds already have 50 seats in the Senate and thus control is not at stake.

Nevada is marginally leaning D, I think.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by lpm » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:33 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:20 pm
To take control of the Senate the Republicans need all four of those that haven’t declared. That wouldn’t be good odds if they were coin tosses. But the elections are of course much more complicated
They need 3 out of 4.

Georgia doesn't matter for now, because it's definitely going to a replay, >95% certainty.

Those who know say Kelly's AZ lead will erode. It's a replay of 2020 when we watched Biden's AZ lead erode, but clung on till there weren't enough votes left to count. Biden won it by 0.3%, from memory.

NV was similar in 2020, but with the late-counted vote more balanced/Biden leaning. So it ended up more comfortable, but very slow to find out.

WI looks pretty sure for Republicans.

Hence could still be 52-48 to Republicans. Or hopefully 50-49 to Democrats with the Georgia runoff still to come.
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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by monkey » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:34 pm

dyqik wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:23 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:18 pm
For the senate the NY Times now has Arizona ‘leaning democrat’ while Georgia and Nevada are ‘tossup’. The democrat candidate is ahead in Arizona by about 90 000 votes after 68 % have been counted,
The most likely outcome in Georgia is that it goes to a run-off in December, where only the objectively terrible R candidate and the D incumbent will be on the ballot. This is probably going to make it much harder for Rs to turn out their voters for the run-off - particularly if Ds already have 50 seats in the Senate and thus control is not at stake.
Do they have the "all red/blue" boxes in Georgia? If so, that'll be a factor too.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by dyqik » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:47 pm

monkey wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:34 pm
dyqik wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:23 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:18 pm
For the senate the NY Times now has Arizona ‘leaning democrat’ while Georgia and Nevada are ‘tossup’. The democrat candidate is ahead in Arizona by about 90 000 votes after 68 % have been counted,
The most likely outcome in Georgia is that it goes to a run-off in December, where only the objectively terrible R candidate and the D incumbent will be on the ballot. This is probably going to make it much harder for Rs to turn out their voters for the run-off - particularly if Ds already have 50 seats in the Senate and thus control is not at stake.
Do they have the "all red/blue" boxes in Georgia? If so, that'll be a factor too.
Georgia seems to have abolished that in 1994, but it is still a thing that manually occurs, I'm sure.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by monkey » Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:49 pm

lpm wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:33 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:20 pm
To take control of the Senate the Republicans need all four of those that haven’t declared. That wouldn’t be good odds if they were coin tosses. But the elections are of course much more complicated
They need 3 out of 4.

Georgia doesn't matter for now, because it's definitely going to a replay, >95% certainty.

Those who know say Kelly's AZ lead will erode. It's a replay of 2020 when we watched Biden's AZ lead erode, but clung on till there weren't enough votes left to count. Biden won it by 0.3%, from memory.

NV was similar in 2020, but with the late-counted vote more balanced/Biden leaning. So it ended up more comfortable, but very slow to find out.

WI looks pretty sure for Republicans.

Hence could still be 52-48 to Republicans. Or hopefully 50-49 to Democrats with the Georgia runoff still to come.
You need to move 1/2 a senator to the Republicans in your estimates (on average) 'cos of Coaly McCoalface from West Virginia.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by monkey » Thu Nov 10, 2022 12:01 am

Just had a look at Alaska, looks like it'll go the same way as it did in August, 'cos the same candidates are getting similar percentages, with the incumbent Dem doing a fair bit better on 75% of the vote counted. They do instant run off there.

Last time Enough of Nick Begich's (R) voters gave their 2nd preferences to put Mary Peltola (D) above 50% and made her the winner.

So it looks like Sarah Palin won't be the representative. This makes me happy.


(Republicans are cleaning up for senator and governor, mind)

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by dyqik » Thu Nov 10, 2022 2:26 am

monkey wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 12:01 am
Just had a look at Alaska, looks like it'll go the same way as it did in August, 'cos the same candidates are getting similar percentages, with the incumbent Dem doing a fair bit better on 75% of the vote counted. They do instant run off there.

Last time Enough of Nick Begich's (R) voters gave their 2nd preferences to put Mary Peltola (D) above 50% and made her the winner.

So it looks like Sarah Palin won't be the representative. This makes me happy.


(Republicans are cleaning up for senator and governor, mind)
Senate is looking like an instant run off between Murkowski and a Trumper. Hopefully enough Ds placed Murkowski second to keep the Trumper out.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by lpm » Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:39 pm

First call in for AZ Senate race - Democrat hold. Need to see some more players making the call, though. Would makes it 49-49 with GA and NV to decide it.

NV: still a few days away. Slightly favours Democrat but a long way to go.
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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:15 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 1:39 pm
First call in for AZ Senate race - Democrat hold. Need to see some more players making the call, though. Would makes it 49-49 with GA and NV to decide it.

NV: still a few days away. Slightly favours Democrat but a long way to go.
The lead for the Democrat in Arizona is slowly increasing. I've no idea of the demographic profile of the votes yet to be counted. But this doesn't look like a case of a big lead slowly being whittled away.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:20 pm

If the democrabs get NV-AZ-GA and end up with 51 senate seats, that will allow them to bypass Manchin, but who's the next depressingly republican chump on their books?
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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by lpm » Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:44 pm

Kyrsten Sinema. The other AZ senator...
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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:46 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:44 pm
Kyrsten Sinema. The other AZ senator...
Fifty one would be only one awkward eccentric would need to be accommodated, though. It does make it easier.

What's happened with the house? I've been too busy looking at Telegram posts filled with watermelon emojis to keep up.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by lpm » Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:50 pm

House still uncertain. A lot of counting and recounting left. Heading to a Repub win by at least 5, but still the small chance of Dems clinging on 218-217.
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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by dyqik » Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:00 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:50 pm
House still uncertain. A lot of counting and recounting left. Heading to a Repub win by at least 5, but still the small chance of Dems clinging on 218-217.
The middle guess might be closer to R+3, I think.

There's a pretty good chance of R+1, with the insurrectionist Boebert as the +1. At that point, the Republican Party has about 150 caucuses that demand a veto and their own individual extremist amendment on everything, including election of a R house speaker. The net result of that could well be Pelosi being reelected as speaker...

EDIT, +Even isn't possible in the House without an independent.
Last edited by dyqik on Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:02 pm

lpm wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:50 pm
still the small chance of Dems clinging on 218-217.
If that does happen, I'm sure the press that worked themselves up into a frenzy over a red wave will still be saying why that's bad for Biden.

It's clear there was a major polling miss. It's clear the 538 approach of judging pollsters missed firms like Trafalgar getting closer than some by pure f.cking accident and according them too much influence with their very deliberately pro-repub "polls". I mean one pollster had the Dems up by about five points in the Vermont senate race, where the margin was actually more like forty points. To allow that pollster to affect reporting is simply scandalous negligence or indifference to the truth.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by dyqik » Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:07 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:02 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:50 pm
still the small chance of Dems clinging on 218-217.
If that does happen, I'm sure the press that worked themselves up into a frenzy over a red wave will still be saying why that's bad for Biden.

It's clear there was a major polling miss. It's clear the 538 approach of judging pollsters missed firms like Trafalgar getting closer than some by pure f.cking accident and according them too much influence with their very deliberately pro-repub "polls". I mean one pollster had the Dems up by about five points in the Vermont senate race, where the margin was actually more like forty points. To allow that pollster to affect reporting is simply scandalous negligence or indifference to the truth.
There also seems to be have been a number of polls by unrated/unknown pollsters that were all released in the last month or two that were aimed at driving the averages towards the Rs, both to give the illusion of momentum and to provide a basis for claiming fraud.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:09 pm

dyqik wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:07 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:02 pm
lpm wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:50 pm
still the small chance of Dems clinging on 218-217.
If that does happen, I'm sure the press that worked themselves up into a frenzy over a red wave will still be saying why that's bad for Biden.

It's clear there was a major polling miss. It's clear the 538 approach of judging pollsters missed firms like Trafalgar getting closer than some by pure f.cking accident and according them too much influence with their very deliberately pro-repub "polls". I mean one pollster had the Dems up by about five points in the Vermont senate race, where the margin was actually more like forty points. To allow that pollster to affect reporting is simply scandalous negligence or indifference to the truth.
There also seems to be have been a number of polls by unrated/unknown pollsters that were all released in the last month or two that were aimed at driving the averages towards the Rs, both to give the illusion of momentum and to provide a basis for claiming fraud.
I think the Vermont poll I mentioned was probably one of them, so I reiterate the final sentence of my post. People's vote is affected by what they think will happen. The media need to do better.

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Re: Indecision 2022

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Nov 12, 2022 4:52 am

AZ called for the Democrats. Republican lead in NV down to under a thousand votes. So it’s looking there.

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