Re: Indecision 2022
Posted: Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:03 pm
Looks like good news on abortion rights. Kentucky has just rejected their constitutional ban, and it looks like Montana will reject theirs.
There's plenty of the error on Frisch's side of the line though.
The most likely outcome in Georgia is that it goes to a run-off in December, where only the objectively terrible R candidate and the D incumbent will be on the ballot. This is probably going to make it much harder for Rs to turn out their voters for the run-off - particularly if Ds already have 50 seats in the Senate and thus control is not at stake.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:18 pmFor the senate the NY Times now has Arizona ‘leaning democrat’ while Georgia and Nevada are ‘tossup’. The democrat candidate is ahead in Arizona by about 90 000 votes after 68 % have been counted,
They need 3 out of 4.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:20 pmTo take control of the Senate the Republicans need all four of those that haven’t declared. That wouldn’t be good odds if they were coin tosses. But the elections are of course much more complicated
Do they have the "all red/blue" boxes in Georgia? If so, that'll be a factor too.dyqik wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:23 pmThe most likely outcome in Georgia is that it goes to a run-off in December, where only the objectively terrible R candidate and the D incumbent will be on the ballot. This is probably going to make it much harder for Rs to turn out their voters for the run-off - particularly if Ds already have 50 seats in the Senate and thus control is not at stake.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:18 pmFor the senate the NY Times now has Arizona ‘leaning democrat’ while Georgia and Nevada are ‘tossup’. The democrat candidate is ahead in Arizona by about 90 000 votes after 68 % have been counted,
Georgia seems to have abolished that in 1994, but it is still a thing that manually occurs, I'm sure.monkey wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:34 pmDo they have the "all red/blue" boxes in Georgia? If so, that'll be a factor too.dyqik wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:23 pmThe most likely outcome in Georgia is that it goes to a run-off in December, where only the objectively terrible R candidate and the D incumbent will be on the ballot. This is probably going to make it much harder for Rs to turn out their voters for the run-off - particularly if Ds already have 50 seats in the Senate and thus control is not at stake.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:18 pmFor the senate the NY Times now has Arizona ‘leaning democrat’ while Georgia and Nevada are ‘tossup’. The democrat candidate is ahead in Arizona by about 90 000 votes after 68 % have been counted,
You need to move 1/2 a senator to the Republicans in your estimates (on average) 'cos of Coaly McCoalface from West Virginia.lpm wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:33 pmThey need 3 out of 4.Woodchopper wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 4:20 pmTo take control of the Senate the Republicans need all four of those that haven’t declared. That wouldn’t be good odds if they were coin tosses. But the elections are of course much more complicated
Georgia doesn't matter for now, because it's definitely going to a replay, >95% certainty.
Those who know say Kelly's AZ lead will erode. It's a replay of 2020 when we watched Biden's AZ lead erode, but clung on till there weren't enough votes left to count. Biden won it by 0.3%, from memory.
NV was similar in 2020, but with the late-counted vote more balanced/Biden leaning. So it ended up more comfortable, but very slow to find out.
WI looks pretty sure for Republicans.
Hence could still be 52-48 to Republicans. Or hopefully 50-49 to Democrats with the Georgia runoff still to come.
Senate is looking like an instant run off between Murkowski and a Trumper. Hopefully enough Ds placed Murkowski second to keep the Trumper out.monkey wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 12:01 amJust had a look at Alaska, looks like it'll go the same way as it did in August, 'cos the same candidates are getting similar percentages, with the incumbent Dem doing a fair bit better on 75% of the vote counted. They do instant run off there.
Last time Enough of Nick Begich's (R) voters gave their 2nd preferences to put Mary Peltola (D) above 50% and made her the winner.
So it looks like Sarah Palin won't be the representative. This makes me happy.
(Republicans are cleaning up for senator and governor, mind)
The lead for the Democrat in Arizona is slowly increasing. I've no idea of the demographic profile of the votes yet to be counted. But this doesn't look like a case of a big lead slowly being whittled away.
Fifty one would be only one awkward eccentric would need to be accommodated, though. It does make it easier.
The middle guess might be closer to R+3, I think.
If that does happen, I'm sure the press that worked themselves up into a frenzy over a red wave will still be saying why that's bad for Biden.
There also seems to be have been a number of polls by unrated/unknown pollsters that were all released in the last month or two that were aimed at driving the averages towards the Rs, both to give the illusion of momentum and to provide a basis for claiming fraud.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:02 pmIf that does happen, I'm sure the press that worked themselves up into a frenzy over a red wave will still be saying why that's bad for Biden.
It's clear there was a major polling miss. It's clear the 538 approach of judging pollsters missed firms like Trafalgar getting closer than some by pure f.cking accident and according them too much influence with their very deliberately pro-repub "polls". I mean one pollster had the Dems up by about five points in the Vermont senate race, where the margin was actually more like forty points. To allow that pollster to affect reporting is simply scandalous negligence or indifference to the truth.
I think the Vermont poll I mentioned was probably one of them, so I reiterate the final sentence of my post. People's vote is affected by what they think will happen. The media need to do better.dyqik wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:07 pmThere also seems to be have been a number of polls by unrated/unknown pollsters that were all released in the last month or two that were aimed at driving the averages towards the Rs, both to give the illusion of momentum and to provide a basis for claiming fraud.EACLucifer wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:02 pmIf that does happen, I'm sure the press that worked themselves up into a frenzy over a red wave will still be saying why that's bad for Biden.
It's clear there was a major polling miss. It's clear the 538 approach of judging pollsters missed firms like Trafalgar getting closer than some by pure f.cking accident and according them too much influence with their very deliberately pro-repub "polls". I mean one pollster had the Dems up by about five points in the Vermont senate race, where the margin was actually more like forty points. To allow that pollster to affect reporting is simply scandalous negligence or indifference to the truth.