Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

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bob sterman
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Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by bob sterman » Mon Aug 01, 2022 9:21 pm

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/01/poli ... index.html
"We would like to tell the US once again that China is standing by, and the Chinese People's Liberation Army will never sit idly by. China will take resolute responses and strong countermeasures to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity," Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters, when asked about the fallout from Pelosi leading a congressional delegation to Taipei.

"As for what measures, if she dares to go, then let's wait and see," Zhao added.
So what will the measures be? Missile tests close to the Taiwan coast?

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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Aug 01, 2022 9:34 pm

China isn’t militarily capable of invading the main Taiwan island. An irrational government may try. But I doubt it.

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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by bob sterman » Tue Aug 02, 2022 6:02 am

Well I don't think the Pelosi visit will trigger an invasion attempt.

But what's the response to the visit going to be?

Missile tests? PLA Air Force attempting to "escort" Pelosi's aircraft?

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/25/chin ... index.html
"China will respond with unprecedented countermeasures -- the strongest it has ever taken since the Taiwan Strait crises," said Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at China's Renmin University.

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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 02, 2022 6:15 am

Perhaps a seizure of Itu Aba, a Taiwanese held island in the South China Sea.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiping_Island

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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 02, 2022 8:44 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Aug 01, 2022 9:34 pm
China isn’t militarily capable of invading the main Taiwan island. An irrational government may try. But I doubt it.
Invading Taiwan would require an amphibious operation more ambitious than Overlord. It would be exceptionally difficult for any military.

However, the concern is always that dictators can come to believe their own propaganda, and that dictators are not always given accurate information by subordinates who depend on the dictator thinking they are doing a good job for career advancement - indeed that was the cause of the misreporting of grain reserves that lead to China suffering the worst famine in history.

The other concern is that nations don't only decide based on their own military strength, but that of their enemies. Germany picked 1914 as a time to push for war as the Russian Empire was starting to meaningfully modernise, and they might not get a good enough crisis to exploit again before the Russian Empire had substantially increased its military strength. Likewise, the Russian Federation's ongoing invasion of Ukraine could well of escalated this year for fear of the advances in equipment the Ukrainians were achieving - with weapons like Vilkha and above all Neptune just barely starting to come into service, if Putin had left it much longer, Ukraine wouldn't have needed America to send GMLRS, they'd have used their own from the get-go, and any attempt by the Black Sea Fleet would have been in trouble as Ukraine would have had more than a tiny handful of Neptune missiles.

Taiwan is taking the threat from Fascist China seriously, and seeking to improve their defences. One fear is that Fascist China might try and get their attack in before Taiwan's defences get out of reach for them entirely.

That said, an attack on Taiwan itself is very unlikely at this point, and if it did occur, could well fail dramatically. In addition, America has at least a carrier group and a pair of assault ship groups in the area just in case they do try it. Smaller actions, though, like an attack on Itu Aba, as mentioned by Woodchopper, are still a very real fear at this point.

The west really needs to learn to stop appeasing. If Fascist China seizes any part of Taiwanese held territory, there should be sanctions in response, as seizing any part of Taiwanese territory indicates the intention to ultimately subdue Democratic China by force.

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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 02, 2022 8:46 am

bob sterman wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 6:02 am
PLA Air Force attempting to "escort" Pelosi's aircraft?
I think unlikely, as far as I know they don't know exactly when she's landing or on which flight.

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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by TopBadger » Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:19 am

It seems strange to me that Taiwan hasn't struck out as an independent UN recognized nation before now... with each decade that passes China only gets stronger. If the world accepted Taiwan as a fully fledged independent country back in say, the mid 80's, would we even be at this point now?
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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:07 am

TopBadger wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:19 am
It seems strange to me that Taiwan hasn't struck out as an independent UN recognized nation before now... with each decade that passes China only gets stronger. If the world accepted Taiwan as a fully fledged independent country back in say, the mid 80's, would we even be at this point now?
Until the late 80s most of the people who ran things were still those who had escaped from China in 1949. They had been born on the mainland and perceived themselves as having the same nationality.

Its only over the past 10-15 years that a majority of the population have stated that they identify more as Taiwanese than Chinese.

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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by snoozeofreason » Tue Aug 02, 2022 11:44 am

TopBadger wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:19 am
It seems strange to me that Taiwan hasn't struck out as an independent UN recognized nation before now... with each decade that passes China only gets stronger. If the world accepted Taiwan as a fully fledged independent country back in say, the mid 80's, would we even be at this point now?
Until 1971, the UN recognised Chiang Kai-shek's Taiwan based Republic of China as the sole legitimate representative of China. After the declaration of resolution 2758 in October of that year, it completely changed its position. Chiang Kai-shek's representatives were expelled, and the PRC was recognised as the sole representative of China. It is one of the first political events that I can ever remember having an opinion about (I was very cross about it, but unfortunately young teenagers from the west country had very little sway on geopolitics).
In six days the Lord made the heavens and the earth, the sea, and all that is in them. The human body was knocked up pretty late on the Friday afternoon, with a deadline looming. How well do you expect it to work?

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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 02, 2022 1:10 pm

There's huge amounts of equipment moving into/through Fujian, including possible embarkation of AFVs. I'm still leaning towards Dao-rattling from the spoiled, over-sensitive hypocrites in Fascist China's government, but it could also being dual purpose as a practise run towards a later real attempt under cover of Dao-rattling, and we can't rule out some degree of more limited armed aggression either.

I'm not a China watcher, but China watcher's aren't sure how to read this either, at least in comparison to previous straits crises, as Xi's China is not the same as the government last time tensions flared up, and is also moving in a much more straightforwardly fascist direction than other recent Red Chinese governments.

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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Aug 02, 2022 6:12 pm

So West-Taiwan* are looking pretty impotent right now after all their threats and bluster failed to deter Pelosi's visit to their democratic neighbours. The US response to threatening behaviour, including threatening flights, appears to have been along the lines of "I don't think you have the facilities for that big man", scrambling jets on top of positioning carrier groups, just to really make the point that Xi Xinping's fascists don't get to dictate the guests of neighbouring countries.

However, the nationalist imperialists are planning live fire exercises into Democratic China's sovereign waters - aka behaviour internationally recognised as military aggression.


*Yes, this post is deliberately written in a style calculated to give Chinese fascists and their tankie scum allies an aneurysm.

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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by bob sterman » Tue Aug 02, 2022 6:39 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 10:19 am
It seems strange to me that Taiwan hasn't struck out as an independent UN recognized nation before now... with each decade that passes China only gets stronger. If the world accepted Taiwan as a fully fledged independent country back in say, the mid 80's, would we even be at this point now?
Up until the 1980s the government in Taiwan was maintaining the official position that it was the rightful government of the whole Republic of China (including the mainland).

Since then - the PRC government in the mainland have been pretty clear that they will take immediate military action if Taiwan were to declare independence. Most people in Taiwan support the current position of de facto independence, rather than declared independence (and the inevitable war).

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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by bob sterman » Tue Aug 02, 2022 6:42 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 6:12 pm
So West-Taiwan* are looking pretty impotent right now ...

*Yes, this post is deliberately written in a style calculated to give Chinese fascists and their tankie scum allies an aneurysm.
Hmmm....surely you mean the "Western renegade R.O.C. provinces"? More likely to pop that aneurysm.

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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by dyqik » Tue Aug 02, 2022 9:23 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 6:42 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Aug 02, 2022 6:12 pm
So West-Taiwan* are looking pretty impotent right now ...

*Yes, this post is deliberately written in a style calculated to give Chinese fascists and their tankie scum allies an aneurysm.
Hmmm....surely you mean the "Western renegade R.O.C. provinces"? More likely to pop that aneurysm.
"The Western R.O.C. provinces, currently under the control of authoritarian extremists..."

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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by bob sterman » Wed Aug 03, 2022 7:56 am

So here's the response....

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/03/asia ... index.html
China is set to stage military drills around Taiwan from Thursday to Sunday to protest a visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei.

The Chinese Defense Ministry released a map of six zones around the island where it plans to conduct air and sea exercises as well as long-range live-fire exercises, as part of what a spokesman described as a "blockade."

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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by TopBadger » Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:14 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 7:56 am
So here's the response....

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/03/asia ... index.html
China is set to stage military drills around Taiwan from Thursday to Sunday to protest a visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei.

The Chinese Defense Ministry released a map of six zones around the island where it plans to conduct air and sea exercises as well as long-range live-fire exercises, as part of what a spokesman described as a "blockade."
Oh... not good. Taiwan will be looking at Ukraine and Putin's "Exercises" on their doorstep and be nervous about how that went.

Allowing Chinese forces to operate unhindered doesn't set a great precedent for Taiwan, but at the same time downing some Chinese ships or planes that go into Taiwan's 12-mile territorial space (as China claims they will) is a recipe for escalation.

Hope the US have their ducks in a row to act decisively.
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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by bob sterman » Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:31 am

Apparently. PRC ships and aircraft have ventured across the median line a few times...

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 022-08-04/

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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:10 am

TopBadger wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:14 pm

Oh... not good. Taiwan will be looking at Ukraine and Putin's "Exercises" on their doorstep and be nervous about how that went.
Ukrainians should also be concerned about what is happening around Taiwan.

China can try to retaliate against the US by providing assistance to Russia, and perhaps North Korea. The prospect of war in East Asia will affect decisions made in Washington about what equipment to give to Ukraine.

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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by bob sterman » Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:50 am

So now PRC have apparently launched some ballistic missiles - landing in the "exclusion zones".

Big concern is they may try to lob one over the top of Taiwan into an area on the other side.

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Re: Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:09 am

bob sterman wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:50 am
So now PRC have apparently launched some ballistic missiles - landing in the "exclusion zones".

Big concern is they may try to lob one over the top of Taiwan into an area on the other side.
It's a petulant tantrum after the Americans called their bluff. It is, however, a potentially very dangerous tantrum.

The official twitter account of the Republic of China's armed forces posted this, which seems like a very reasonable response.
#ROCArmdForces are operating as usual and monitor our surroundings in response to irrational activities from PRC, aiming for changing the status quo & destabilizing the region's security. We seek no escalation, but we don't stand down when it comes to our security and sovereignty

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