Nordstream: Pipe Down

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Bird on a Fire
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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by Bird on a Fire » Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:12 pm

It would even be better to burn it off, but I guess that's not really possible.
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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by Gfamily » Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:37 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:12 pm
It would even be better to burn it off, but I guess that's not really possible.
It makes it difficult to approach the damage sites if there's a raging inferno at sea level.
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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by monkey » Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:42 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:12 pm
It would even be better to burn it off, but I guess that's not really possible.
It happened accidently, remember this - clicky?

If you can do it accidently, I'm pretty sure you can do it on purpose.

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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by Martin_B » Sat Oct 01, 2022 12:45 am

Is the release still ongoing? Pretty clear sign that this means that the pipeline is still being fed gas into it deliberately - even a long pipeline such as Nordstream would have depressurised through a major rupture like this one by now.
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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:18 am

Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:12 pm
It would even be better to burn it off, but I guess that's not really possible.
I know my usual approach to most problems is to work out if they will be improved by setting them on fire, but I do wonder if this problem really is.

Actually lighting it is probably quite trivial.

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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by temptar » Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:54 am

Martin_B wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 12:45 am
Is the release still ongoing? Pretty clear sign that this means that the pipeline is still being fed gas into it deliberately - even a long pipeline such as Nordstream would have depressurised through a major rupture like this one by now.
Not sure, I agree, Martin. Every comment on the subject I saw since Wednesday estimated it would be Monday or Tuesday before all of it was released. And until then, they couldn't send someone down to have a look. So I am not sure it is being fed gas deliberately. Ask again next week.

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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by Martin_B » Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:08 am

temptar wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:54 am
Martin_B wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 12:45 am
Is the release still ongoing? Pretty clear sign that this means that the pipeline is still being fed gas into it deliberately - even a long pipeline such as Nordstream would have depressurised through a major rupture like this one by now.
Not sure, I agree, Martin. Every comment on the subject I saw since Wednesday estimated it would be Monday or Tuesday before all of it was released. And until then, they couldn't send someone down to have a look. So I am not sure it is being fed gas deliberately. Ask again next week.
Seeing as reports were that the pipeline pressure had already reached seabed pressure, the release should have stopped/reduced to a trickle. This is what I do as a job.
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:18 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:12 pm
It would even be better to burn it off, but I guess that's not really possible.
I know my usual approach to most problems is to work out if they will be improved by setting them on fire, but I do wonder if this problem really is.

Actually lighting it is probably quite trivial.
Lighting it is trivial. Lighting it safely isn't; you need to fire a flare into the gas cloud and even then hope that it hits a bit of gas which is at the flammable limit (quite small, even for methane, it's between 5-15% in air and the stoichiometric sweet spot is 9.5%) and then hope that the flammable limit cloud stays where the fire is, or it gets snuffed out. And flares aren't very accurate; accuracy isn't something you need when the requirement is mainly: go up, be visible.
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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:31 am

Martin_B wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:08 am
temptar wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:54 am
Martin_B wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 12:45 am
Is the release still ongoing? Pretty clear sign that this means that the pipeline is still being fed gas into it deliberately - even a long pipeline such as Nordstream would have depressurised through a major rupture like this one by now.
Not sure, I agree, Martin. Every comment on the subject I saw since Wednesday estimated it would be Monday or Tuesday before all of it was released. And until then, they couldn't send someone down to have a look. So I am not sure it is being fed gas deliberately. Ask again next week.
Seeing as reports were that the pipeline pressure had already reached seabed pressure, the release should have stopped/reduced to a trickle. This is what I do as a job.
EACLucifer wrote:
Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:18 am
Bird on a Fire wrote:
Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:12 pm
It would even be better to burn it off, but I guess that's not really possible.
I know my usual approach to most problems is to work out if they will be improved by setting them on fire, but I do wonder if this problem really is.

Actually lighting it is probably quite trivial.
Lighting it is trivial. Lighting it safely isn't; you need to fire a flare into the gas cloud and even then hope that it hits a bit of gas which is at the flammable limit (quite small, even for methane, it's between 5-15% in air and the stoichiometric sweet spot is 9.5%) and then hope that the flammable limit cloud stays where the fire is, or it gets snuffed out. And flares aren't very accurate; accuracy isn't something you need when the requirement is mainly: go up, be visible.
Ukraine captured a whole bunch of thermite cluster ammunition for the BM-21 Grad. Fire of a few of those, and anywhere stoichiometry is correct, it will light :twisted:

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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by lpm » Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:52 am

Can't you just buy a few drones from Argos and fly in some flares?
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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:16 pm

Stolen from twitter

Image

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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by Bird on a Fire » Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:31 pm

I was thinking one of those burning Viking longship funeral boats might be a good way to set it off.
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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Oct 03, 2022 1:00 pm

Image

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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by Woodchopper » Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:25 pm


The Swedish Coast Guard is reporting that while the larger Nord Stream 2 leak in Danish waters has stopped, the smaller one in Swedish waters has increased in size.

They currently have no explanation for this.

As the smaller leak is closer to the origin point and Russian compressor station, it could be possible that Russia is pumping additional gas into the pipeline.
https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status ... wut4Zqlx5A

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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by plodder » Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:06 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:25 pm

The Swedish Coast Guard is reporting that while the larger Nord Stream 2 leak in Danish waters has stopped, the smaller one in Swedish waters has increased in size.

They currently have no explanation for this.

As the smaller leak is closer to the origin point and Russian compressor station, it could be possible that Russia is pumping additional gas into the pipeline.


https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status ... wut4Zqlx5A

I’m not sure I understand what the point of pumping extra gas would be

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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by dyqik » Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:53 pm

plodder wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:06 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:25 pm

The Swedish Coast Guard is reporting that while the larger Nord Stream 2 leak in Danish waters has stopped, the smaller one in Swedish waters has increased in size.

They currently have no explanation for this.

As the smaller leak is closer to the origin point and Russian compressor station, it could be possible that Russia is pumping additional gas into the pipeline.


https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status ... wut4Zqlx5A

I’m not sure I understand what the point of pumping extra gas would be
To keep reminding people of the threat? To try to own the environmentalists?

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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by Martin_B » Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:32 am

dyqik wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:53 pm
plodder wrote:
Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:06 pm

I’m not sure I understand what the point of pumping extra gas would be
To keep reminding people of the threat? To try to own the environmentalists?
Putin believing that global warming would turn the Russian Steppes into a version of the North American prairie, becoming a global food supplier which other countries would have to beg food from? This isn't the craziest theory I can come up with, either!
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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by plodder » Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:23 am

My guess is that it’s cheaper than turning it off

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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by dyqik » Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:04 am

plodder wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:23 am
My guess is that it’s cheaper than turning it off
Or the valve* has stuck due to lack of maintenance, or everyone competent to turn it off has fled the country to avoid being pressganged into the army.

Or all of the above plus a few others.

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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Oct 04, 2022 11:29 am

I think Russia worsenening the situation by pumping in more gas confirms what we already suspected about the perpetrators.

And no, I don't mean Anglo-Saxons, Danes or giant Schweinokaras.

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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:16 pm

Two days before the explosions a Swedish navy vessel patrolled within two kilometers of where the sabotage took place, then it sailed near to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.

Original (paywall) and in Swedish: https://www.dn.se/sverige/marinen-i-upp ... osionerna/
Summary in Swedish: https://svenska.yle.fi/a/7-10015555/64-3-112385

Could be a coincidence, or could be that the Swedes were investigating suspicious behaviour.

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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by IvanV » Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:23 pm

plodder wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 5:23 am
My guess is that it’s cheaper than turning it off
It's an alternative to wasting it in other ways. They have gas to waste. The Russians are flaring off lots of gas because it is too complicated to reduce production down to the levels they are selling. BBC, 26-8-22: Flaring $10m of gas a day near Finnish border.

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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by bjn » Sat Oct 08, 2022 2:23 pm

I’m not wise enough to judge this take on the pipe failures, but the supposition is that methane hydrates formed the in the pipes and attempts to clear them led to failure. Incompetence causing both the formation and the destructive efforts to clear them. The Russians apparently have form for this, having previously destroyed a surface pipeline trying to clear such a blockage with a blowtorch(!).

Any opinions?

Happening to both pipelines near simultaneously and nearby make me dubious.

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html

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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by dyqik » Sat Oct 08, 2022 2:29 pm

bjn wrote:
Sat Oct 08, 2022 2:23 pm
I’m not wise enough to judge this take on the pipe failures, but the supposition is that methane hydrates formed the in the pipes and attempts to clear them led to failure. Incompetence causing both the formation and the destructive efforts to clear them. The Russians apparently have form for this, having previously destroyed a surface pipeline trying to clear such a blockage with a blowtorch(!).

Any opinions?

Happening to both pipelines near simultaneously and nearby make me dubious.

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html
Yeah, simultaneity rules that out completely.

And both pipelines forming them at the same time when they are different age pipelines, and one has been in use for years, and one never got fully turned on is also a rather large coincidence.

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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by jimbob » Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:41 pm

Good video on this

https://youtu.be/hk-0qJXyido

TLDW - the operational design points to Russia.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: Nordstream: Pipe Down

Post by Martin_B » Sun Oct 09, 2022 12:08 am

dyqik wrote:
Sat Oct 08, 2022 2:29 pm
bjn wrote:
Sat Oct 08, 2022 2:23 pm
I’m not wise enough to judge this take on the pipe failures, but the supposition is that methane hydrates formed the in the pipes and attempts to clear them led to failure. Incompetence causing both the formation and the destructive efforts to clear them. The Russians apparently have form for this, having previously destroyed a surface pipeline trying to clear such a blockage with a blowtorch(!).

Any opinions?

Happening to both pipelines near simultaneously and nearby make me dubious.

https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html
Yeah, simultaneity rules that out completely.

And both pipelines forming them at the same time when they are different age pipelines, and one has been in use for years, and one never got fully turned on is also a rather large coincidence.
Hydrate blockages in stationary pipelines are possible, as any water present will collect in low points and the conditions of the pipelines (~100-200 bar, seabed temperature in Baltic Sea) means that the water can form hydrates relatively easily. If there's enough water then a hydrate blockage is possible.

Now water shouldn't have been present. This isn't raw gas just out of the ground, it's processed gas to pipeline spec, which means it's been dehydrated and had the water removed to at least at dew point of 4 C (more likely ~-10 C or below, considering the area the pipeline be above ground). Now, I'll allow LawDog's explanation that poor maintenance from the Russians could allow the dehydration systems to have stopped working, but to put enough non-dehydrated gas into the pipeline to get a hydrate plug:

a) for the operating pipeline, to get enough water into the line this would have meant that the end-user would have received off-spec gas and this would have been flagged up.
b) for the non-operating pipeline would have meant fillng the line with very off-spec gas and that this was a deliberate act by the Russians. Essentially, the Nordstream 2 pipeline was being set up to be a bomb from the time of filling it and the pipeline was never intended to be operational.

Now, because there's been no indication that the gas from Nordstream 1 was off-spec, and Nordstream 2 was very expensive, and the Russians need the cash from gas sales, I'm skeptical of the idea that it was hydrates. It's not impossible, as hydrates are inconsistent little buggers.

I'm also not sure I agree with LawDog's idea that a military answer should be discounted because the two explosions were 17 hours apart. There are benefits of delaying the second charge because you might manage to hit any fast-responding investigation craft (eg, little ROVs - remote operated submarines) which were checking the other pipeline after the first explosion.
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