Rishi Sunak - PM

[Martin Y]

It must be an exasperating experience for fascists though. David Cameron spent years telling them he couldn't stop all those foreigners swarming over here taking our whatever's because the EU had tied his hands, and then he asked them if they still wanted to be in the EU.

It must be confusing to think you'd twigged the seemingly simple solution but then find it hasn't worked and there are still brown people. Poor lambs.

[shpalman]

It must be an exasperating experience for fascists though. David Cameron spent years telling them he couldn't stop all those foreigners swarming over here taking our whatever's because the EU had tied his hands, and then he asked them if they still wanted to be in the EU.

It must be confusing to think you'd twigged the seemingly simple solution but then find it hasn't worked and there are still brown people.

And one of them is even the PM now! Or is that fine because he's as rich as f.ck?

[Tessa K]

On the whole Little Englanders like that won’t be voting Labour, they’ll go Reform or some other trashy BritFash party.

Or not vote at all

[jimbob]

On the whole Little Englanders like that won’t be voting Labour, they’ll go Reform or some other trashy BritFash party.

Exactly, and every voters they get by chasing those people, they'll disgust more who are already uneasy. They might not vote Labour, they might not even vote Lib Dem. But they'll probably also not vote Tory. They might actually bother to spoil their ballots.

[lpm]

People are getting carried away. The Tories still have the scum tabloids and BBC. The gap will close and it won't be a huge Labour win.

For example this https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... llo-moment
saying Hunt will quit rather than face losing. His seat is way down the list of LibDem targets - they'd get dozens of blue wall seats before Hunt's new constituency. No projection has LibDems getting 60 odd MPs.

Starmer isn't as good as Blair and the brilliant New Labour operation of 1997. Sunak & Co are worse than Major - but it's a more polarised world. The usual Conservative voters will stay loyal, responding to bribes of tax cuts and whipped up fears of Corbynites.

[IvanV]

Wellingborough and Rushden has noticed that it's been getting its face eaten. Not that I have much sympathy:

Mark Parnell, who voted Conservative and for Leave, is more emphatic. “Brexit hasn’t worked out,” he says simply.

In what specific ways?

“Because of all the migrants,” he explains. “That’s what we voted for, and it’s not happened. It’s just got worse and worse.”

Although initially falling after Brexit, net immigration to Britain appears to have recently risen quite sharply. But such are the primitive ways we have of counting this in Britain, it is difficult to know the net immigration figure with any certainty.

To listen to Cruella de Braverman, you'd think it was the boat-people that was the cause. But in fact asylum cases have not risen much, remain low in comparison to continental Europe, and are only a small contributor to the increase in net migration. But instead of trumpeting what they might bill as a "success" in keeping that low, despite the growing international pressures, the Tories give the impression it is some huge problem, perhaps to stoke fear of it, because they think that makes people vote Tory. I wonder if that is the factor that drives Mr Parnell to his conclusion, or whether he is aware of the greater growth in net migration for other reasons. Ironic if it is the first, because that would suggest that the Tories have a big foot in mouth problem over this.

In reality, the recent growth in net inward migration is mainly due to a combination of these three factors (Source: Immigration Observatory):

-study visas - which have got quietly got easier to get again, and are more attractive as you are once again allowed to work for a while after completing your studies, as the Tories have woken up again to the advantage of attracting people here to study after previous repression of it
-skilled worker visas, which have been extended in part to fill the gap in skill requirements previously supplied by the EU, but actually fail fully to fill the vacancies gap here
-refugees mainly from Ukraine and Hong Kong.

Despite that, we are still short of people to fill jobs, because it's still harder to come here to work than it used to be. And you wonder where they'd all live if they did come. I asked a delivery guy the other day where he came from, and he said Moldova. I wonder how a Moldovan gets to come to Britain to drive a delivery van.

I sometimes wonder if more Brits would have left if we were still in the EU, and that would have brought the net migration figures down. But overall I would guess that immigration is down on what it otherwise would have been as a result of Brexit. Not enough to satisfy the Mr Parnells of this world though.

[Millennie Al]

But instead of trumpeting what they might bill as a "success" in keeping that low, despite the growing international pressures, the Tories give the impression it is some huge problem,

I suspect they're afraid of the voter who thinks "If that is a success, I'd hate to see what they consider to be a failure".

[Sciolus]

Despite that, we are still short of people to fill jobs, because it's still harder to come here to work than it used to be.

This is partly because of the factor that the "coming over here taking our jobs" people forgetn are too stupid to realise, which is that immigrants create jobs as well -- they need to buy stuff and spend their money on things as much as natives.

Only partly, because (a) some immigrants send money back to their home countries and (b) most immigrants are working-age whereas much of the demand for workers, especially the unmet demand, is in services for elderly people.

[Grumble]

On a), I see adverts all the time, especially on bus stops, exhorting immigrants to send money home. Obviously these are placed by money transfer companies, but I suspect it shows that the market is quite big. Are there reliable stats that show how much money flows out that way? Effectively it is the cost of importing labour, it’s just not as easily tracked as the cost of importing goods. I presume cleverer people than me try to include this in our economic stats.

[IvanV]

Despite that, we are still short of people to fill jobs, because it's still harder to come here to work than it used to be.

This is partly because of the factor that the "coming over here taking our jobs" people forgetn are too stupid to realise, which is that immigrants create jobs as well -- they need to buy stuff and spend their money on things as much as natives.

Only partly, because (a) some immigrants send money back to their home countries and (b) most immigrants are working-age whereas much of the demand for workers, especially the unmet demand, is in services for elderly people.

Here's some data on net remittances. It seems that there is more than one way of trying to count it, but the best estimate seems to be 0.4% of GDP out and 0.2% of GDP in, net 0.2% out. There are at least 84 countries with a larger share of GDP in outgoing remittances. So, no great drag on our economy.

[jimbob]

People are getting carried away. The Tories still have the scum tabloids and BBC. The gap will close and it won't be a huge Labour win.

For example this https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... llo-moment
saying Hunt will quit rather than face losing. His seat is way down the list of LibDem targets - they'd get dozens of blue wall seats before Hunt's new constituency. No projection has LibDems getting 60 odd MPs.

Starmer isn't as good as Blair and the brilliant New Labour operation of 1997. Sunak & Co are worse than Major - but it's a more polarised world. The usual Conservative voters will stay loyal, responding to bribes of tax cuts and whipped up fears of Corbynites.

I think you are being a bit pessimistic.

Major was trying to portray himself as somewhat in the centre, especially after Thatcher. He was also pretty competent, and the economy was doing pretty well.

Sunak is chasing the right wing, the economy is far worse with the recent memory of Truss as PM putting at least some of the blame unequivocally on the Tories, and quite a few of Sunak's policies are really unpopular in many blue constituencies. For example the environment might not be top priority for many "National Trust Tories" but they don't like the sewage discharges or the relaxation on sewage requirements for new developments. Most of these would never vote Labour, but aren't that scared of Starmer so might consider protest votes. Or Lib Dems. This happened in the recent council elections, and whilst my late Father's home constituency of Tonbridge and Malling will remain blue, the council went to NOC, with 20% voting Green, which indicates that support is getting hollowed out even somewhere like that.

Starmer is sufficiently competent and ruthless to keep up the pressure. And Sunak's not finished making mistakes.

[Tessa K]

On study visas - out of the 28,000 students at UCL this year, 16,000 are Chinese and that's just one uni. Most of them go home after the three years as they just want the kudos of a British degree but people (Tories) in some parts of the country will be noticing a big influx of 'foreigners' at this time of year.

[Sciolus]

Despite that, we are still short of people to fill jobs, because it's still harder to come here to work than it used to be.

This is partly because of the factor that the "coming over here taking our jobs" people forgetn are too stupid to realise, which is that immigrants create jobs as well -- they need to buy stuff and spend their money on things as much as natives.

Only partly, because (a) some immigrants send money back to their home countries and (b) most immigrants are working-age whereas much of the demand for workers, especially the unmet demand, is in services for elderly people.

Here's some data on net remittances. It seems that there is more than one way of trying to count it, but the best estimate seems to be 0.4% of GDP out and 0.2% of GDP in, net 0.2% out. There are at least 84 countries with a larger share of GDP in outgoing remittances. So, no great drag on our economy.

That predates the influx from Ukraine and, I think, Hong Kong, both of which are rather special cases in that regard. But yes, I just mentioned that factor out of pedantry.

But my point is that importing people won't reduce the number of job vacancies 1:1. Each worker you import (and allow to work) reduces the number of vacancies by about 0.5, since just under half of the population are in work in the UK. You might fill jobs in particular sectors if you have a policy of poaching nurses or whatever from overseas, but that creates demand elsewhere (and messes with the blessed free market).

[philbo]

OK, here's a suggestion of what might happen over the next few months until a GE becomes inevitable: Sunak's lack of, well, pretty much anything that might make him electable becomes ever more exposed, and the Tory party starts to panic (parts of it are doing very much that at the moment)

They think: "a lying, borderline^* racist narcissist won us a great victory in 2019, we should get one of those to run the election campaign"

The campaign to install Farage as leader of the Tory party decides not to wait until after the inevitable election rout - he is elected as party leader by an overwhelming majority of the membership and becomes Prime Minister-in-waiting, handed the safest seat available (there are plenty as governmental rats desert the sinking ship).

Come the GE, the right-wing rags are in full "stuff it up Johnny Foreigner, let's have Nigel in charge" mode, positing Starmer as even further to the left of Corbyn (and mentioning Savile in every other article, because "everyone knows" that it was his fault the serial sex offender wasn't prosecuted; "currygate" is trending on twi X as the bot army mobilizes); Farage spends half the campaign on the beaches, pointing out over the water with a grim look on his frog-like face, showing just how much boat-stopping will happen under his rule, and how nothing else could be considered remotely as important. The Mail and Express are so far up his backside, they're running pure Nigel-sh.t.

But..

Even the Sun readers aren't buying it this time - Farage along with 500 other Conservative candidates loses his deposit. Again.

I'm an optimist, OK?

^*For some very narrow, possibly non-existent definition of a border

[El Pollo Diablo]

I mean, it's one vision of the future certainly. And whilst there can be periods of active malice here, British politics tends towards mediocrity, hence why I think we'll just have a sad, slow slide towards this time next year, like a rubber duck going over a waterfall.

[jimbob]

https://news.sky.com/story/senior-tory- ... s-12993261

[jimbob]

https://news.sky.com/story/senior-tory- ... s-12993261

Crispin Blunt has confirmed it's him.

How many more is that?

[Grumble]

Have we got an MPs committing sexual crimes thread? Not that I want one. The air of sleaze and disgrace is hanging thick over parliament now.

[FlammableFlower]

Part of me wonders if the whips' little black books of compromising info are coming out to play...

[philbo]

Part of me wonders if the whips' little black books of compromising info are coming out to play...

He is quoted as saying:
"I have now been interviewed twice in connection with this incident, the first time three weeks ago when I initially reported my concern over extortion."
..he's definitely trying to make it sound like he's the victim, here. But it doesn't sound like a whip dropping his soon-to-be-former colleagues in the brown stuff.

[dyqik]

Part of me wonders if the whips' little black books of compromising info are coming out to play...

He is quoted as saying:
"I have now been interviewed twice in connection with this incident, the first time three weeks ago when I initially reported my concern over extortion."
..he's definitely trying to make it sound like he's the victim, here. But it doesn't sound like a whip dropping his soon-to-be-former colleagues in the brown stuff.

Unless the whips have been covering up a large number of crimes. Which isn't impossible with this party at this moment in time.

[jimbob]

Jonathan Pie on destitution UK

https://youtu.be/R8EhVfnFZck?si=aA9tRZeNHN5X2ox6

[bjn]

Looks like the prick is betting the next election on “Labour will take you car away!” stupidity. Hard right opportunistic sh.t head.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ngs-speech

[jimbob]

I've never seen someone try so hard to get sacked and fail fo so long.

I'm not sure what Sunak is playing at but it's painful to watch Braverman defying him so happily

[TopBadger]

As seen elsewhere...

"Even cluster-f.ck Liz Truss who only served 49 days as PM managed to sack Braverman".