Indecision 2024

[dyqik]

I doubt anything will change because of it, unless Trump dropped out.

[lpm]

It's been a bad few days. Starmer f.cks up. 14.3 looks over. Georgia is put at risk by extramarital shagging. Florida stolen docs delayed in perpetuity.

And now Biden revealed as a confused old man. He couldn't remember the years he was VP, ffs.

I'd say this counts as the medical crisis risk. Every time he fluffs his words - which he will, many times - every single commentator will say "elderly man with a poor memory". And nobody will notice Trump's equal confusion.

I've no confidence he can win, following this.

[dyqik]

And now Biden revealed as a sympathetic old man. A partisan Republican violated DoJ standiing policy to claim that he couldn't remember the years he was VP, ffs.

FTFY.

[Woodchopper]

We'll get a much better idea about Biden over the next few months. One consequence of the lack of a contested primary is that Biden hasn't been seriously tested in situations such as debates with other candidates or frequent unscripted encounters with voters or local media. But if he is to beat Trump he's going to have to go out and be exposed under the spotlight.

[headshot]

Someone who’s old and a bit forgetful, but has a decent VP and party structure behind him - with a good policy record and a thriving economy, or…an all-out fascist who’s incapable to reasoned debate, is only 3.5 years younger, just as forgetful and whose party wants to reenact The Handmaid’s Tale.

Such a tough decision for Americans to make.

f.ck me.

[lpm]

Yes, and the last time it was tested in 2020, 47% chose the all-out fascist who’s incapable of reasoned debate.

[dyqik]

I don't know how tested Biden will be if he's running against Trump. Trump probably won't debate him, and that wouldn't be much of a test anyway.

[El Pollo Diablo]

I miss feeling like things were getting better

[jimbob]

I miss only knowing about the word gerontocracy from reading Consider Phlebas on the 1990s

[IvanV]

Yes, and the last time it was tested in 2020, 47% chose the all-out fascist who’s incapable of reasoned debate.

And pollsters detect a swing towards Trump since then. The swing looks particularly large in some key states that were narrowly for Biden last time, and can so have a disproportionate effect on the outcome of the election. And the reason the pollsters are being given is people being annoyed about the economic situation, especially cost of living increase. These voters blame Biden, simply because he is in charge, even though actually it is largely driven by external factors. But probably you can point to some greenery, public spending, etc, that would be more repressed under Trump which has some modest effect. But that influencers are effective in putting these small things in people's minds as reasons to vote for Trump. To me, it seems very odd to be upset about the cost of living, and then to choose to vote for the guy who wants above all to cut taxes for the rich and doesn't seem to care what that does to anyone else.

I found that quite depressing. But The Economist had an article a couple of weeks ago suggesting that it might not be as bad as it looks, for two reasons. First, people have quite short memories on the economy when it comes to voting (studies show this), and things look to be moving in a improving direction over the coming year. So they might be less poorly disposed towards the incumbent - who gets the blame whether its his fault or not - come the time of the poll. Also, the Democrats have proved very canny at getting their vote out in key locations in recent times and this has an impact.

[IvanV]

Looks like the critical point has arrived where the Supreme Court has to decide, in effect, whether Trump gets a free run to the election without any major cases proceeding during the campaign period.

Trump has asked the court to suspend the DC appeal court judgment on his lack of immunity, until such time as they determined it. If they don't suspend it, then the lower courts can continue to rule the cases on the assumption that the lack of immunity is the correct ruling. If they suspend it, then all the cases where it is relevant stop until such time as the Supreme Court gets around to ruling on it. Since the Supreme Court already declined to hear the case on a expedited basis, that probably means they'll take their time over it, and by the time they rule on it, the other courts will not be able to reconvene until either Trump is in the White House and it all stops again, or he isn't and it probably doesn't matter so much. There are some further procedural complications, and other stuff going on that the immunity case doesn't matter for. But this seems to be the big one.

[lpm]

Yes, and the last time it was tested in 2020, 47% chose the all-out fascist who’s incapable of reasoned debate.

And pollsters detect a swing towards Trump since then. The swing looks particularly large in some key states that were narrowly for Biden last time, and can so have a disproportionate effect on the outcome of the election. And the reason the pollsters are being given is people being annoyed about the economic situation, especially cost of living increase. These voters blame Biden, simply because he is in charge, even though actually it is largely driven by external factors. But probably you can point to some greenery, public spending, etc, that would be more repressed under Trump which has some modest effect. But that influencers are effective in putting these small things in people's minds as reasons to vote for Trump. To me, it seems very odd to be upset about the cost of living, and then to choose to vote for the guy who wants above all to cut taxes for the rich and doesn't seem to care what that does to anyone else.

I found that quite depressing. But The Economist had an article a couple of weeks ago suggesting that it might not be as bad as it looks, for two reasons. First, people have quite short memories on the economy when it comes to voting (studies show this), and things look to be moving in a improving direction over the coming year. So they might be less poorly disposed towards the incumbent - who gets the blame whether its his fault or not - come the time of the poll. Also, the Democrats have proved very canny at getting their vote out in key locations in recent times and this has an impact.

Strange post.

It is almost as if you think reality has anything to do with US politics.

There are two competing narratives. Fox transmits a narrative that the economy is a disaster, far worse than under Trump, and that Biden must be kicked out to save America.

The Democrats transmit a narrative that the economy is thriving, with inflation beaten, wages rising, record job creation and a booming stock market.

Which of these two is reality is irrelevant. All that matters is which narrative dominates.

Same with age. One narrative is that Biden is mentally failing and far too old. The other is that Trump has dementia. Reality doesn't matter - and at the moment the narrative that Biden is incapable is winning hands down.

[IvanV]

And pollsters detect a swing towards Trump since then. The swing looks particularly large in some key states that were narrowly for Biden last time, and can so have a disproportionate effect on the outcome of the election. And the reason the pollsters are being given is people being annoyed about the economic situation, especially cost of living increase. These voters blame Biden, simply because he is in charge, even though actually it is largely driven by external factors. But probably you can point to some greenery, public spending, etc, that would be more repressed under Trump which has some modest effect. But that influencers are effective in putting these small things in people's minds as reasons to vote for Trump. To me, it seems very odd to be upset about the cost of living, and then to choose to vote for the guy who wants above all to cut taxes for the rich and doesn't seem to care what that does to anyone else.

I found that quite depressing. But The Economist had an article a couple of weeks ago suggesting that it might not be as bad as it looks, for two reasons. First, people have quite short memories on the economy when it comes to voting (studies show this), and things look to be moving in a improving direction over the coming year. So they might be less poorly disposed towards the incumbent - who gets the blame whether its his fault or not - come the time of the poll. Also, the Democrats have proved very canny at getting their vote out in key locations in recent times and this has an impact.

Strange post.

It is almost as if you think reality has anything to do with US politics.

There are two competing narratives. Fox transmits a narrative that the economy is a disaster, far worse than under Trump, and that Biden must be kicked out to save America.

The Democrats transmit a narrative that the economy is thriving, with inflation beaten, wages rising, record job creation and a booming stock market.

Which of these two is reality is irrelevant. All that matters is which narrative dominates.

Same with age. One narrative is that Biden is mentally failing and far too old. The other is that Trump has dementia. Reality doesn't matter - and at the moment the narrative that Biden is incapable is winning hands down.

I have been aware that voter perceptions are very important and can have poor relationship to the truth ever since Reagan was elected. He told influential lies about things, and the Democrats had no success in outing the lies. People believed what was comfortable for them to believe. Reagan was very effective in communicating emotion and feel to the electorate, regardless of the truth.

I was trying to say that voters' perception of the economy was not close to reality, and that was driving the swing. You set out the mechanisms for that. It was the Economist that was suggesting that improvements in the economy might help Biden. They pointed to some backward looking studies that supported that. But maybe it's wishful thinking. That certainly occurred to me as I read it.

[Stranger Mouse]

Watching the questioning in court concerning the alleged discrepancies in details given by Fani Willis about the start of her relationship with the special prosecutor Nathan Wade. I will be so pissed off if the indictment collapses because of some irrelevant shagging.

[TopBadger]

I'm kinda puzzled how irrelevant shagging could cause an indictment to collapse.

How does two people bumping uglies affect the guilt of a 3rd party? It doesn't.

[bolo]

I think the argument is that if the DA and the prosecutor were already in a relationship, it was improper for the DA to select the prosecutor as prosecutor (at a salary of $600k iiirc). If this argument succeeds, I don't think the case against Trump is affected directly, but the prosecutor may have to be replaced, which would delay the case, at least, and maybe worse, if they have trouble finding another Georgia prosecutor who wants to take it.

Happy to be corrected if there's more to it than this.

[Stranger Mouse]

I'm kinda puzzled how irrelevant shagging could cause an indictment to collapse.

How does two people bumping uglies affect the guilt of a 3rd party? It doesn't.

It basically goes to honesty of Willis and Wade as to whether they lied to the court about when their relationship started because pathological liar Donald Trump can only be prosecuted by candidates for sainthood who don’t mind getting death threats.

[Stranger Mouse]

f.cking Hell. Fanni Willis has taken the stand and is chewing out the lawyer who is cross examining her.

[Stranger Mouse]

She’s taking no sh.t

https://x.com/johnobrennan2/status/1758 ... 55680?s=61

The difficulty in cross examining someone as to when a romantic relationship started

https://x.com/stridinstrider/status/175 ... 87966?s=61

[Stranger Mouse]

Willis: Let’s go on and have a conversation. I don't need anything from a man. A man is not a plan. A man is a companion. I don't need anybody to foot my bills. The only man who has foot my bills completely is my daddy.

f.cking Hell. Viola Davis will win awards for repeating that.

[Stranger Mouse]

Engeron judgement just released. Their reading through now but it looks like a total of 300 million plus dollars, a multi year business ban and Weiselberg also being fined a million dollars

ETA More than 364 million dollars in total.

[Stranger Mouse]

Engeron judgement just released. Their reading through now but it looks like a total of 300 million plus dollars, a multi year business ban and Weiselberg also being fined a million dollars

ETA More than 364 million dollars in total.

Daily Beast breakdown of the ruling. They reckon it could go to 450 million with interest.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-ba ... -gut-punch

Here’s the judgement https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef ... AYz6FyeA==

ETA Watching MSNBC They are referring to Eric Trump telling minions to use a valuation of 164 million on some property 4 days after being given an official valuation of 14 million

[dyqik]

Coincidentally, that's about the size of the US Megamillions lottery jackpot today ($457m)

[Stranger Mouse]

Coincidentally, that's about the size of the US Megamillions lottery jackpot today ($457m)

Trump should buy a ticket and insist he won

[dyqik]

Coincidentally, that's about the size of the US Megamillions lottery jackpot today ($457m)

Trump should buy a ticket and insist he won

It's a CIA plot, and Taylor Swift will win.