Indecision 2024

[Chris Preston]

The wheels appear to be falling off.

[Woodchopper]

Yes, he seems more unhinged, and also lost. He doesn’t know what to do about Harris and Walz. He’s almost stopped campaigning and the last press conference was just word salad.

Also, we shouldn’t discount the effect of the assassination attempt. If my ear had been grazed by a bullet I’d be psychologically f.cked up. Definitely wouldn’t want to appear in similar situations.

[Grumble]

He used to fantasise about being a tough guy, but now someone has actually tried to kill him and missed by centimetres. Famously he didn’t ever train as a soldier never mind take part in a war. Wouldn’t be surprising if he has quite a bit of trauma from it.

[lpm]

It's hard to tell with Trump. There's no normal baseline to compare to.

For example last night he ranted for a while about Hillary Clinton instead of Harris. Totally mad and you wonder if he knows what year it is and if he's lost touch with reality. But then you remember he also ranted about Hillary Clinton instead of Biden in 2020. Is it worse now? Who can tell.

He plays truant from his campaign to have a round of golf, but then he played truant from his presidency to play golf. Does it mean trauma or just laziness.

The language analysis is interesting, as is the percentage of sentences not completed, but those seem to be signifiers of ageing rather than mental distress.

[dyqik]

.
The language analysis is interesting, as is the percentage of sentences not completed, but those seem to be signifiers of ageing rather than mental distress.

Hmm, I wonder if the age of the candidates will behind an issue during this campaign season?

[Chris Preston]

A long rambling press conference from which the main policy platforms appear to be that Kamala Harris is only pretending to be black and that Trump's crowds were bigger than Matin Luther King Jr's. This followed a week of ordinary press conferences from his Vice President pick, which have only cemented the idea in the electorate that the Republicans are determined to restrict abortion rights completely.

The crowds are not turning up for Trump's rallies as they did. Trump can see this and it is eating at him.

Polls at the moment have Harris with clear leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and a dead heat in Nevada. Trump is slightly ahead in Arizona and Georgia and clearly ahead in North Carolina. If this holds to November, Trump will lose. But all is not lost, Trump is going to have a rally at a smaller venue in Montana, a seat he won by more than 16% in 2020. His campaign is doing this to make Trump feel good and no other reason. Keeping the narcissist happy has become the most important thing for Trump's campaign.

[monkey]

I had a look at right wing twitter to see what they thought of the press conference. As far as I could tell, it didn't happen, they were very quiet about it. Apparently Walz did steal some valour though, which they were very loud about.

[lpm]

Walz clearly stole some valour.

He claims to have gone through the equivalent of Vietnam by screwing a lot of women and risking STDs.

Walz literally said "It is very dangerous. So I'm very, very careful" and said it's like "Getting the Congressional Medal of Honor, in actuality."

These claims of valour are obviously absurd.

[lpm]

Polls at the moment have Harris with clear leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and a dead heat in Nevada. Trump is slightly ahead in Arizona and Georgia and clearly ahead in North Carolina. I

The polling trackers still have Harris tied or behind in the Rust Belt. Probably tied or ahead in Nevada but behind in Arizona and Georgia.

But nothing that's a particular concern at this stage. The fact that it's still a toss up after the transformation of the race goes to show how badly Biden had got behind.

[dyqik]

Polls at the moment have Harris with clear leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and a dead heat in Nevada. Trump is slightly ahead in Arizona and Georgia and clearly ahead in North Carolina. I

The polling trackers still have Harris tied or behind in the Rust Belt. Probably tied or ahead in Nevada but behind in Arizona and Georgia.

But nothing that's a particular concern at this stage. The fact that it's still a toss up after the transformation of the race goes to show how badly Biden had got behind.

Polling trackers have about a two-three week memory at the moment, with low number of polls being done. And that's before we get into all the problems with polling nowadays.

[lpm]

Polls at the moment have Harris with clear leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and a dead heat in Nevada. Trump is slightly ahead in Arizona and Georgia and clearly ahead in North Carolina. I

The polling trackers still have Harris tied or behind in the Rust Belt. Probably tied or ahead in Nevada but behind in Arizona and Georgia.

But nothing that's a particular concern at this stage. The fact that it's still a toss up after the transformation of the race goes to show how badly Biden had got behind.

OK, so I withdraw that.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/us/p ... polls.html

NYT/Siena has Harris 50-46 in all three of MI, WI, PA.

Unless the identical score is a copy and paste error.

[Woodchopper]

Polls at the moment have Harris with clear leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and a dead heat in Nevada. Trump is slightly ahead in Arizona and Georgia and clearly ahead in North Carolina. I

The polling trackers still have Harris tied or behind in the Rust Belt. Probably tied or ahead in Nevada but behind in Arizona and Georgia.

But nothing that's a particular concern at this stage. The fact that it's still a toss up after the transformation of the race goes to show how badly Biden had got behind.

OK, so I withdraw that.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/us/p ... polls.html

NYT/Siena has Harris 50-46 in all three of MI, WI, PA.

Unless the identical score is a copy and paste error.

For people who can’t get past the paywall:

Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald J. Trump in three crucial battleground states, according to new surveys by The New York Times and Siena College, the latest indication of a dramatic reversal in standing for Democrats after President Biden’s departure from the presidential race remade it.

Ms. Harris is ahead of Mr. Trump by four percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, 50 percent to 46 percent among likely voters in each state. The surveys were conducted from Aug. 5 to 9.

The polls, some of the first high-quality surveys in those states since Mr. Biden announced he would no longer run for re-election, come after nearly a year of surveys that showed either a tied contest or a slight lead for Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden.

[…]

Much of the newfound Democratic strength stems from improved voter perceptions of Ms. Harris. Her favorability rating has increased 10 percentage points among registered voters in Pennsylvania just in the last month, according to Times/Siena polling. Voters also view Ms. Harris as more intelligent and more temperamentally fit to govern than Mr. Trump.

[…]

It is unclear how much of Ms. Harris’s bounce in the polls stems from the heightened excitement surrounding her ascension to the top of the ticket, or whether that momentum will last.

[…]

Still, there is little doubt that replacing Mr. Biden on the ticket has turbocharged Democratic enthusiasm about the election. Among Democrats, voter satisfaction with their choice of candidates has skyrocketed since Ms. Harris entered the race, up 27 percentage points in the three swing states since May, according to the latest Times/Siena results. Democrats are now more likely to say they are satisfied with their candidate choices than Republicans, a reversal from three months ago, when the question was last asked.

[…]

In the three battlegrounds, Ms. Harris is in a stronger position than Mr. Biden was in May with most demographic groups, including white voters without a college degree. She is faring better with key parts of the Democratic Party’s coalition that had begun to erode under Mr. Biden, most notably Black and young voters. But she also appears to be holding on to older voters, who were some of the president’s most ardent supporters.

The share of voters who said they trusted Ms. Harris to handle economic issues was higher than the share Mr. Biden received in May, though she is still nine points behind Mr. Trump on an issue where the Republican nominee has long held the advantage. And she has a 24-percentage-point advantage when it comes to whom voters trust to handle abortion, an issue considered one of the strongest for Democrats — in May, Mr. Biden held a 13-percentage-point advantage on abortion.

Mr. Trump’s attacks on Ms. Harris as “not smart” and “incompetent” have not landed with most voters. Nearly two-thirds of voters see Ms. Harris as intelligent, more than say the same about Mr. Trump. A majority of white voters without a college degree — a demographic that typically favors Republicans — said Ms. Harris was “intelligent.”

But the polls also indicate clear vulnerabilities for the new Democratic presidential nominee. Forty-two percent of voters said Ms. Harris was too liberal; 37 percent said the same about Mr. Biden last October.

[…]

Across all three states, Mr. Vance is viewed broadly unfavorably by independent voters: About one-third said they were dissatisfied, and another 17 percent described themselves as “angry” about his selection. Strikingly, he receives lukewarm support from a notable number of Republican voters. While 43 percent said they were excited about their vice-presidential nominee, 38 percent said they were satisfied but not enthusiastic.

Mr. Walz, by comparison, received higher marks within his own party. In Pennsylvania, the only state where the poll was taken entirely after Mr. Walz was announced as Ms. Harris’s running mate, 48 percent of Democrats said they were excited about the vice-presidential nominee. (In Wisconsin and Michigan, some interviews were completed before Ms. Harris announced that she had chosen Mr. Walz.)

[…]

The new polls also included crucial Senate races in the three swing states. Democrats hold a slight edge among likely voters in Michigan and larger leads in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

As recently as a few months ago, Democratic Senate candidates were running far ahead of Mr. Biden, a sign of the president’s weakness. Ms. Harris, by comparison, is running roughly on par with her party’s Senate contenders in the three states.

[jimbob]

Today, Celine Dion’s management team and her record label, Sony Music Entertainment Canada Inc., became aware of the unauthorized usage of the video, recording, musical performance, and likeness of Celine Dion singing “My Heart Will Go On” at a Donald Trump / JD Vance campaign rally in Montana.

In no way is this use authorized, and Celine Dion does not endorse this or any similar use.

…And really, THAT song?

https://x.com/celinedion/status/1822347994223587506

[dyqik]

Somewhere, Hillary is laughing.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/1 ... k-00173503

[Woodchopper]

It's hard to tell with Trump. There's no normal baseline to compare to.

For example last night he ranted for a while about Hillary Clinton instead of Harris. Totally mad and you wonder if he knows what year it is and if he's lost touch with reality. But then you remember he also ranted about Hillary Clinton instead of Biden in 2020. Is it worse now? Who can tell.

He plays truant from his campaign to have a round of golf, but then he played truant from his presidency to play golf. Does it mean trauma or just laziness.

The language analysis is interesting, as is the percentage of sentences not completed, but those seem to be signifiers of ageing rather than mental distress.

I had a look at his previous campaigns.

2020 was weird due to Covid.

But if we compare the roughly three weeks between 22 July and 11 August 2024 to 2026 there does seem to be a big difference.

2016 - 20 rallies, and they are mostly in what were the battleground states. He did two rallies per day on seven days.

2024 - 5 rallies, four in battleground states, and one in Montana. Three in the first week, then one per week.

Compared to eight years ago, Trump has slowed down a lot.

Age is the most likely explanation. Harris may have a key advantage in stamina alone.

Of course Trump could pick up the pace later.

Numbers from Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_p ... mp_rallies
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_r ... l_campaign

[Chris Preston]

Nothing to see here anymore. Trump states his campaign is doing real well, he is leading in all the REAL Polls and has the most enthusiasm and spirit. The only problem is the low self esteem leakers.

[bob sterman]

Never quite understood the value of rallies in US politics.

Presumably all the attendees were going to vote for the candidate anyway?

Do clips for the news with loads of people waving and cheering really make that much difference?

Never really caught on over here - after the notorious Sheffield rally of 1992.

[El Pollo Diablo]

All comes down to Pennsylvania. If the polls stay where they are now, MI and WI will go Dem, NV and AZ will go Rep. That puts the Dems on 251 and Reps on 252. If that's how it goes, Pennsylvania decides it, Georgia is relevant only from the perspective of faithless electors - 270-268 gives a massive risk that one or two cockwombles will turn to Trump from Harris.

[lpm]

All comes down to Pennsylvania. If the polls stay where they are now, MI and WI will go Dem, NV and AZ will go Rep. That puts the Dems on 251 and Reps on 252. If that's how it goes, Pennsylvania decides it, Georgia is relevant only from the perspective of faithless electors - 270-268 gives a massive risk that one or two cockwombles will turn to Trump from Harris.

Harris is heading into contention in Trump's winning states.

There was a poll last night that had a tie in North Carolina (Trump won by 1.3 in 2020, Obama just squeaked a win in 2008).

Next stop Florida, Texas and Ohio (Trump 2020 +3, +6 and +8).

[jimbob]

At least if there is a contended result or false electors, the Supreme Court will act in the interests of justice

[Chris Preston]

Never quite understood the value of rallies in US politics.

Presumably all the attendees were going to vote for the candidate anyway?

Do clips for the news with loads of people waving and cheering really make that much difference?

Never really caught on over here - after the notorious Sheffield rally of 1992.

The networks, particularly on cable, show them or exerpts from them. It is an easy way to reach lots of eyeballs without having to answer any awkward questions.

They haven't caught on in the antipodes either, but that is more because our elections are for local members, rather than a single person, so you have to go to all of the localities where campaigns are competitive. Holding a large rally in Sydney will cut no ice in western NSW, on the other hand, there is no venue to hold a large rally in western NSW.

[FlammableFlower]

At least if there is a contended result or false electors, the Supreme Court will act in the interests of justice

You forgot tags...

[Chris Preston]

All comes down to Pennsylvania. If the polls stay where they are now, MI and WI will go Dem, NV and AZ will go Rep. That puts the Dems on 251 and Reps on 252. If that's how it goes, Pennsylvania decides it, Georgia is relevant only from the perspective of faithless electors - 270-268 gives a massive risk that one or two cockwombles will turn to Trump from Harris.

Indeed Pennsylvania will be important. Trump cannot win without it. Harris could by snaring Arizona and Nevada.

The latest polls have Arizona even. Even the Republican biased Trafalgar Group only have Trump up by 1%.

[dyqik]

All comes down to Pennsylvania. If the polls stay where they are now, MI and WI will go Dem, NV and AZ will go Rep. That puts the Dems on 251 and Reps on 252. If that's how it goes, Pennsylvania decides it, Georgia is relevant only from the perspective of faithless electors - 270-268 gives a massive risk that one or two cockwombles will turn to Trump from Harris.

Indeed Pennsylvania will be important. Trump cannot win without it. Harris could by snaring Arizona and Nevada.

The latest polls have Arizona even. Even the Republican biased Trafalgar Group only have Trump up by 1%.

I'd be somewhat surprised if AZ and NV go for Trump. Both have Democrat wins in the Senate in recent election - and the GOP Senate candidate to replace Sinema in AZ is highly controversial (Kari Lake, who lost her attempt to be elected governor last time), with AZ also having very public fights between anti-MAGA and MAGA within the GOP, and a Democratic governor and SoS.

Also, Harris is from California, and there's plenty of California transplants in both NV and AZ, while Trump is an East coaster.

[Chris Preston]

Back when I was at University dressing up in drag was a rite of passage.

Sadly, if the political party you are representing has a no drag queens policy, having dressed up can be a drag on your credibility.