Indecision 2024

[Grumble]

Trump in prison is bad because people will vote for their false memory of him, rather than the obviously mentally unstable lunatic that he shows himself to be.

House arrest or a whopping fine would be best - Trump on the platform is the best way for him to lose moderate votes.

Absolutely. In many ways Trump in court as not been as damaging as Trmp being on the campaign trail showing everyone just how much he is degenerating

Although a lot of attack posts against him by Dems have been a bit desperate, like claiming he was foaming at the mouth when there was one little bit of spittle in the corner of his mouth - that one was on HuffPost yesterday.

[dyqik]

Trump in prison is bad because people will vote for their false memory of him, rather than the obviously mentally unstable lunatic that he shows himself to be.

House arrest or a whopping fine would be best - Trump on the platform is the best way for him to lose moderate votes.

Absolutely. In many ways Trump in court as not been as damaging as Trmp being on the campaign trail showing everyone just how much he is degenerating

Although a lot of attack posts against him by Dems have been a bit desperate, like claiming he was foaming at the mouth when there was one little bit of spittle in the corner of his mouth - that one was on HuffPost yesterday.

No one who needs convincing actually reads the HuffPost though. I'm actually surprised to hear that it's still going.

[Grumble]

Absolutely. In many ways Trump in court as not been as damaging as Trmp being on the campaign trail showing everyone just how much he is degenerating

Although a lot of attack posts against him by Dems have been a bit desperate, like claiming he was foaming at the mouth when there was one little bit of spittle in the corner of his mouth - that one was on HuffPost yesterday.

No one who needs convincing actually reads the HuffPost though. I'm actually surprised to hear that it's still going.

It’s on Apple News. One of the free sources on there.

[dyqik]

Although a lot of attack posts against him by Dems have been a bit desperate, like claiming he was foaming at the mouth when there was one little bit of spittle in the corner of his mouth - that one was on HuffPost yesterday.

No one who needs convincing actually reads the HuffPost though. I'm actually surprised to hear that it's still going.

It’s on Apple News. One of the free sources on there.

I wouldn't know, what with not using Apple.

[Woodchopper]

Joe biden’s job-approval rating stands at 39%, putting him roughly in a tie for lowest of any president at this point in his term in the history of American polling. In all six states that could prove decisive he trails by between one and six percentage points. In the two where he is closest, Wisconsin and Michigan, Democratic candidates’ margins have under-performed the final polls by an average of six points in the past two elections. Even if he wins both, Mr Biden would still need one more swing state to secure the 270 electoral votes necessary for re-election.

[...]

The Economist’s statistical model of the election—which relies solely on polls, past results and economic data, and knows nothing of Mr Trump’s statements or record in office or in the courts—gives Mr Biden a 34% chance of staving off a second Trump term. That means a victory for Mr Biden would count as only a mild surprise, somewhat more likely than the 30% share of days on which it rains in London. Four years ago this week this model gave Mr Biden an 83% chance.

[Cut text on methods to avoid quoting the whole article]

Unfortunately for the president, state-level polls do not suggest that the electoral-college advantage Mr Trump enjoyed in 2016 and 2020 has eroded materially. Mr Biden trails by around five points in the Sun Belt battlegrounds of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, all of which voted for him four years ago. Our model gives him just a 24% chance of holding on to Georgia, where his lost popularity with black voters is most damaging, and 31% and 36% shots in Arizona and Nevada, where his losses among Latinos hurt him.

Mr Biden’s polling has held up far better in the relatively white Rust Belt swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which is consistent with nationwide surveys showing that his standing among white voters has barely changed since 2020. Mr Trump leads narrowly in all three states. Our model considers all three close to coin flips (see chart). State-level vote shares in the Great Lakes region have tended to fluctuate in tandem from one election to another. It would take only a tiny improvement in Mr Biden’s numbers or polling error in his favour to hand him the trio, and a second term.

However, there are two reasons why Mr Biden’s true chance of winning the electoral college is lower than the average chance of victory that the model gives him in these three states. First, his slide in other regions makes it less likely that he can make up for a loss in the Midwest with wins in the South or West. If he loses Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, he then needs all three Rust Belt battlegrounds (plus one electoral-college vote from Omaha, Nebraska) to muster exactly the magic 270. Our model gives Mr Trump a 43% chance of winning them all and Mr Biden 31%, leaving 27% for a split decision that would probably also return Mr Trump to the White House.

Second, in both 2016 and 2020 Mr Trump did far better in the Midwest than surveys implied. Our model assumes that both candidates are equally likely to benefit from polling errors. But if you compare current surveys with state-level polling averages from late 2020, rather than with the actual election results, the Rust Belt no longer looks like a Biden-friendly outlier. Instead, it is consistent with a national trend, in which Mr Trump appears to have gained three to five points of vote share. If that were the case, the former president could be on track for a decisive victory, flipping light-blue states like Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire or Virginia. Recent polls showing a tied vote in Virginia, or Mr Biden’s lead in the Democratic bastion of New York dwindling to a modest nine-to-ten points, bolster that possibility.

Mr Biden’s situation is far from desperate. Good news for him or bad news for Mr Trump—such as the former president’s recent conviction in New York, which has been reflected in only a handful of state-level surveys so far—could shift their chances. So could the presidential debates. Moreover, the Democratic Party’s new base of white voters with college degrees is far more likely to turn out than Mr Trump’s less-educated coalition is, a disparity that pollsters’ likely-voter screens may not fully reflect.

Our model gives Mr Trump better chances of victory than do other public quantitative forecasts. A model by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill puts him on 56%. The forecast released on June 11th by ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight expects Mr Biden’s position in swing states to improve enough between now and November to give him an edge, with a 53% win probability. All three forecasts agree that the contest is close, and that a victory for either major candidate is easily plausible. But by our reckoning, Mr Trump is the favourite.

https://www.economist.com/united-states ... clear-lead

[dyqik]

Thing is, polling on approval rates is nonsense - as is "direction of the country" - as a proxy for voting intention. Trump's pre-conviction approval rate is within the margin of error of Biden's (even for averages - averaging can't remove or reduce systematic uncertainties). Plenty on the left disapprove of Biden - particularly over Gaza - but they aren't going to not vote and let Trump, who they disapprove even more, in instead.

That's before you get to the fatal flaws in cold-call polling in the modern communication environment.

[dyqik]

Thing is, polling on approval rates is nonsense - as is "direction of the country" - as a proxy for voting intention. Trump's pre-conviction approval rate is within the margin of error of Biden's (even for averages - averaging can't remove or reduce systematic uncertainties). Plenty on the left disapprove of Biden - particularly over Gaza - but they aren't going to not vote and let Trump, who they disapprove even more, in instead.

That's before you get to the fatal flaws in cold-call polling in the modern communication environment.

In particular, two thirds of those with unfavorable views of Biden and Trump believe that Trump should drop out of the race due to his felony conviction. Unfavorable views of Biden doesn't mean that they will vote against him and/or not vote against Trump.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/plurali ... =110744698

and

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... uivalence/

[Woodchopper]

Thing is, polling on approval rates is nonsense - as is "direction of the country" - as a proxy for voting intention. Trump's pre-conviction approval rate is within the margin of error of Biden's (even for averages - averaging can't remove or reduce systematic uncertainties). Plenty on the left disapprove of Biden - particularly over Gaza - but they aren't going to not vote and let Trump, who they disapprove even more, in instead.

Yes, it doesn't tell us very much. But I think its a useful piece of contextual information for what will be a mostly non-US audience. People in the rest of the world may wonder how on earth Trump is in the running after everything that's happened. Part of the explanation is that Biden is also very unpopular.

That's before you get to the fatal flaws in cold-call polling in the modern communication environment.

Yes, though we can compare phone based calls with internet based panels. Of course there could be systematic bias in all methods and we won't know until November. We do know that previous polling has been biased, but in presidential elections those biases tended to favour the Republicans.

[Stranger Mouse]

Some excellent trolling from Biden here

https://x.com/joebiden/status/1806486230084812937?s=61

[lpm]

Oh god.

Trump can just lie with impunity. The moderators aren't fact checking in the least.

Trump claims it's Biden who wants to destroy social security and medicare. And there's silence. They don't even hand it back to Biden to call out the lies.

[lpm]

Biden's resting face: confusion, trying to comprehend

Trump: constant confident talk, doesn't matter if it is lies

[lpm]

Biden finally got animated about Trump's abortion lies.

[lpm]

This is awful proof of how America is destroying itself: energetic lies are effortlessly defeating frail details.

[lpm]

Trump is the only one who can beat Trump in a debate: he just can't stop himself from defending the Jan 6 rioters.

[lpm]

Come on Joe, hit him with his crimes.

But Trump can't be shamed, he just keeps lying through it all.

[lpm]

Half time. Ended the first 45 minutes with some stronger more energetic words from Biden. Some good momentum on Jan 6, Charlottesville and Trump's extremism.

But what a disaster. An old frail man, with a weak voice, trying to stem the endless torrent of lies coming from Trump. I don't know who could beat Trump's energetic lies, perhaps even Obama couldn't. But Biden is just so overwhelmed.

Read a transcript and it would feel OK, from the words. But watching it live with the terrible visuals...

[lpm]

Oh no. And to think Biden prepped for days for this.

He's got so many good achievements to point to, he just jumps randomly from one to another.

[lpm]

Finally one of them energetically calls the other the worst liar ever.

Unfortunately it is Trump claiming Biden is the liar. And Trump lies so well it is almost believable.

[lpm]

Who said:

"I have seen anyone lie like this guy."

Biden?
The Moderators?

No, it is Trump going on the attack about lies. And it is f.cking working.

[lpm]

Trump's lies are becoming more batshit. "Biden is paid by China, a Manchurian candidate".

It is a spectacular flood of lies. Probably the greatest string of lies ever put together.

And it is winning this "debate" without breaking a sweat.

[lpm]

God, now they are both boasting about their golf game.

This is so ridiculous.

[lpm]

I've always liked Biden. And his policies in the first two years were brilliant.

But he looks so damned old and frail.

Trump has won effortlessly, looking remarkably strong and energetic. Not a hint of mental confusion.

Biden even stumbles along and rambles with his closing statement, talking about policy details. His voice is so frail and monotone it's hard to follow.

I would have to check, but I believe Trump lied in every single question. Outrageous lies, flowing non-stop. But he has won. This is the moment where his reelection is guaranteed.

[lpm]

The golf discussion was the final straw for me.

Biden must withdraw and let someone capable have a try.

[lpm]

There will be a lot of diversion onto CNN, shooting the messenger instead of the message.

A terrible format, with deliberately zero fact checking on the spot. No attempt by CNN to keep Trump answering the questions asked - Trump was free to pick anything he wanted to lie about. Truly criminal from CNN, throwing America's democracy to the cliff edge.

But that shouldn't distract from the actual problem.

[lpm]

It's bizarre, Trump was more disciplined than usual. The format of cutting him off helped him, prevented him from misbehaving.

He was nearly always alert and ready to strike at a Biden comment. A couple of times his lies went too far and made him look silly, but then America is so used to Trump being over-the-top.