Indecision 2024

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lpm
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by lpm » Tue Jul 02, 2024 5:59 pm

dyqik wrote:
Sat Jun 29, 2024 5:54 pm
lpm wrote:
Sat Jun 29, 2024 4:27 pm
He's not going to jail.
Not before an appeal, no.

I didn't say going to jail. I said a jail sentence. It's another step in the trial that makes it more real, and brings it back into the news.

The chances of getting a jail sentence are pretty high - at least 50:50, because of the lack of remorse, the seriousness of what the fraud enabled, and the many other frauds in his past.
Agreement from the prosecutors that the sentencing must be postponed.

They say later in July but I'd guess there's little chance before November.
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by lpm » Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:03 pm

Bugger Trump and the American disaster, I'm off elsewhere.

Namely the General Election thread to gloat about the Tories.
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by dyqik » Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:03 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Jul 02, 2024 5:59 pm
dyqik wrote:
Sat Jun 29, 2024 5:54 pm
lpm wrote:
Sat Jun 29, 2024 4:27 pm
He's not going to jail.
Not before an appeal, no.

I didn't say going to jail. I said a jail sentence. It's another step in the trial that makes it more real, and brings it back into the news.

The chances of getting a jail sentence are pretty high - at least 50:50, because of the lack of remorse, the seriousness of what the fraud enabled, and the many other frauds in his past.
Agreement from the prosecutors that the sentencing must be postponed.

They say later in July but I'd guess there's little chance before November.
Yeah, that was before the Supreme Court decided that the whole point of the declaration of independence was wrong.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by lpm » Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:05 pm

Happy July 4th you suckers. A bit of tax on tea doesn't looks so bad now, does it.
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jul 02, 2024 10:14 pm

dyqik wrote:
Tue Jul 02, 2024 3:10 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue Jul 02, 2024 2:04 pm
dyqik wrote:
Tue Jul 02, 2024 1:33 pm

The president can also fire military commanders until he gets one that will carry it out, and offer preemptive pardons to those that do. Under this ruling, there is absolute immunity for both of those actions as well, so the reasons cannot be examined in court for legality.
Certainly, and a Secretary of Defense could presumably change the military codes of justice to allow soldiers to follow orders which would have been illegal. But but this would be when democracy would be being dismantled. I don't think that Biden could just detain some republicans in order to make a point (without doing a lot more).
Remember, Nixon already did this with attorney generals during the Saturday Night Massacre, and Trump started down that road with Jan 6th and AGs. So the getting rid of people until you find one who will follow your illegal orders is absolutely not a hypothetical. It's also part of the origin of the word "borked".
Certainly, I was just questioning Ivan's suggestion that Biden should arrest some opponents to make a point. It would be a bit more difficult than just issuing the order.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Stranger Mouse » Wed Jul 03, 2024 7:35 pm

I think Biden will step down and Harris will take over but I’m probably wrong.

I will highly recommend this podcast episode with Maddow interviewing Stormy Daniels. It covers lots of stuff I haven’t heard before but it’s quite harrowing. Trump is a monster.

https://podcast.app/the-rachel-maddow-show-p94
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by headshot » Wed Jul 03, 2024 8:04 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 7:35 pm
I think Biden will step down and Harris will take over but I’m probably wrong.
If they go for Harris, it's going to be a Trump second term. Jesus Christ. This is terrifying.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Stranger Mouse » Wed Jul 03, 2024 10:20 pm

headshot wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 8:04 pm
Stranger Mouse wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 7:35 pm
I think Biden will step down and Harris will take over but I’m probably wrong.
If they go for Harris, it's going to be a Trump second term. Jesus Christ. This is terrifying.
Apparently her poll numbers are improving and her political skills have improved according.

It’s not looking good for the planet though
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by dyqik » Wed Jul 03, 2024 10:45 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 10:20 pm
headshot wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 8:04 pm
Stranger Mouse wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 7:35 pm
I think Biden will step down and Harris will take over but I’m probably wrong.
If they go for Harris, it's going to be a Trump second term. Jesus Christ. This is terrifying.
Apparently her poll numbers are improving and her political skills have improved according.

It’s not looking good for the planet though
Anyone other than Harris will do worse. It would be a complete middle finger to black and women voters, and no one else would have access to the hundreds of millions of dollars in the Biden-Harris campaign fund, or to the established campaign infrastructure. Almost any other replacement probably wouldn't even get on the ballot in several key states.

Polling showing Harris doing as well as Biden, without any of the exposure of being top of the ticket, shows that she is a viable replacement. And she's the only viable replacement for the above reasons.

Plus, imagine a September debate between Harris and Trump. Trump would be outstandingly weird debating a black woman.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Stranger Mouse » Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:01 am

dyqik wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 10:45 pm
Stranger Mouse wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 10:20 pm
headshot wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 8:04 pm


If they go for Harris, it's going to be a Trump second term. Jesus Christ. This is terrifying.
Apparently her poll numbers are improving and her political skills have improved according.

It’s not looking good for the planet though
Anyone other than Harris will do worse. It would be a complete middle finger to black and women voters, and no one else would have access to the hundreds of millions of dollars in the Biden-Harris campaign fund, or to the established campaign infrastructure. Almost any other replacement probably wouldn't even get on the ballot in several key states.

Polling showing Harris doing as well as Biden, without any of the exposure of being top of the ticket, shows that she is a viable replacement. And she's the only viable replacement for the above reasons.

Plus, imagine a September debate between Harris and Trump. Trump would be outstandingly weird debating a black woman.
One problem is that she can’t take over as President if Biden steps down during his term because that would automatically make Mike Johnson the VP
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by JQH » Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:05 am

But she would not be obliged to choose him as her running mate in November.
And remember that if you botch the exit, the carnival of reaction may be coming to a town near you.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by lpm » Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:20 am

Stranger Mouse wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:01 am
dyqik wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 10:45 pm
Stranger Mouse wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 10:20 pm


Apparently her poll numbers are improving and her political skills have improved according.

It’s not looking good for the planet though
Anyone other than Harris will do worse. It would be a complete middle finger to black and women voters, and no one else would have access to the hundreds of millions of dollars in the Biden-Harris campaign fund, or to the established campaign infrastructure. Almost any other replacement probably wouldn't even get on the ballot in several key states.

Polling showing Harris doing as well as Biden, without any of the exposure of being top of the ticket, shows that she is a viable replacement. And she's the only viable replacement for the above reasons.

Plus, imagine a September debate between Harris and Trump. Trump would be outstandingly weird debating a black woman.
One problem is that she can’t take over as President if Biden steps down during his term because that would automatically make Mike Johnson the VP
Sort of.

The office of VP would be vacant. President Harris would nominate her chosen running mate for Vice President. However it requires a majority in both House and Senate for the VP to be confirmed. This would not happen because America is broken.

So she would serve without a Vice President until 20 January.

Mike Johnson is the next in line for the presidency. So he is sort of Vice President in the sense that when MAGA extremists assassinate President Harris he will become President. And they probably would have a damn good try at assassinating her.
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Stranger Mouse » Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:27 am

JQH wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:05 am
But she would not be obliged to choose him as her running mate in November.
Nope but if Biden resigned as President (rather than Candidate) she doesn’t have much choice before the remainder of the term runs out but lpm’s post after mine explains it better than I did.
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:52 am

lpm wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:20 am
Stranger Mouse wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:01 am
dyqik wrote:
Wed Jul 03, 2024 10:45 pm


Anyone other than Harris will do worse. It would be a complete middle finger to black and women voters, and no one else would have access to the hundreds of millions of dollars in the Biden-Harris campaign fund, or to the established campaign infrastructure. Almost any other replacement probably wouldn't even get on the ballot in several key states.

Polling showing Harris doing as well as Biden, without any of the exposure of being top of the ticket, shows that she is a viable replacement. And she's the only viable replacement for the above reasons.

Plus, imagine a September debate between Harris and Trump. Trump would be outstandingly weird debating a black woman.
One problem is that she can’t take over as President if Biden steps down during his term because that would automatically make Mike Johnson the VP
Sort of.

The office of VP would be vacant. President Harris would nominate her chosen running mate for Vice President. However it requires a majority in both House and Senate for the VP to be confirmed. This would not happen because America is broken.

So she would serve without a Vice President until 20 January.

Mike Johnson is the next in line for the presidency. So he is sort of Vice President in the sense that when MAGA extremists assassinate President Harris he will become President. And they probably would have a damn good try at assassinating her.
That’s correct, when Vice President Spiro Agnew resigned President Nixon nominated Gerald Ford as the next Veep. Ford wasn’t Speaker of the House of Representatives at the time and Nixon considered other candidates. Ford was confirmed by Congress as they were better able to get along back then.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by dyqik » Thu Jul 04, 2024 2:14 pm

I do wonder how long the House could go without confirming a non-controversial veep. The political pressure on them to do so would be enormous - far more than the political pressure to end a government shutdown, for example - and Johnson has a working majority of only a few.

Just before an election, it could disastrous for them.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by dyqik » Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:59 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2024 11:45 am
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2024 10:27 am
This might be the best outcome from a bad situation, to be honest. Imagine if Biden had done well tonight but continually f.cked up during the main campaign itself - too late by then. At least this way someone youngish and handsome with a strong jawline can be parachuted in to try to rescue things.
I know nothing about his politics - but of all the supposed contenders - Gavin Newsom seems to be the one out of central casting.
His ex-wife is dating Donald Trump Jr. The amount of dirt that would be thrown (manufactured or real) would be astonishing.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by dyqik » Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:03 pm

This makes the case for Harris as a replacement clearly.

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opi ... rcna160078

What it comes down to is right place, right time. Probably not the ideal candidate, but the supposed better candidate isn't on the ballot and doesn't have cash on hand.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by dyqik » Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:18 pm

dyqik wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:59 pm
bob sterman wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2024 11:45 am
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Fri Jun 28, 2024 10:27 am
This might be the best outcome from a bad situation, to be honest. Imagine if Biden had done well tonight but continually f.cked up during the main campaign itself - too late by then. At least this way someone youngish and handsome with a strong jawline can be parachuted in to try to rescue things.
I know nothing about his politics - but of all the supposed contenders - Gavin Newsom seems to be the one out of central casting.
His ex-wife is dating Donald Trump Jr. The amount of dirt that would be thrown (manufactured or real) would be astonishing.
Oh, and he's most famous nationally for his Partygate style French Laundry Scandal

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Jul 06, 2024 7:30 pm

You all can watch George Stephanopoulos interview Joe Biden here: https://youtu.be/0kpibhlagG0?si=pRk8P1k55rZxiTRs

It doesn't take long, just 22 minutes.

Biden seems in better shape than in the debate and appears to believe that he should carry on as he's the only one who can beat Trump and run the world.

But he wasn't convincing either. Very roughly he seemed lose his train of thought in about a quarter of his answers. Compared to Stephanopoulos who is 63, Biden seems much less sharp. He also seems to be oblivious about aspects of the situation that he's in.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by TopBadger » Mon Jul 08, 2024 4:05 pm

Trump wants to run against Biden, and that tells us a lot.

The Dems have to replace him... maybe they'll still lose with Harris, but I can't see Biden beating Trump.
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Grumble » Mon Jul 08, 2024 4:47 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2024 4:05 pm
Trump wants to run against Biden, and that tells us a lot.

The Dems have to replace him... maybe they'll still lose with Harris, but I can't see Biden beating Trump.
Biden has been good, I think, but anyone over 75 is yesterday’s person aren’t they?
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by dyqik » Mon Jul 08, 2024 4:51 pm

Grumble wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2024 4:47 pm
TopBadger wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2024 4:05 pm
Trump wants to run against Biden, and that tells us a lot.

The Dems have to replace him... maybe they'll still lose with Harris, but I can't see Biden beating Trump.
Biden has been good, I think, but anyone over 75 is yesterday’s person aren’t they?
Replacing Biden with Harris, and then going on the attack about Trump being old and not making sense is certainly one way to turn all of the Trump campaigns rhetoric back on itself.

Doing it at the convention, with all of the Biden/Harris delegates present is probably the correct way to do it, though.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Brightonian » Wed Jul 10, 2024 5:51 pm

George Clooney wants Biden to step aside, and Nancy Pelosi wants him to "make a decision": https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cv2gq705qwjt

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Stranger Mouse » Thu Jul 11, 2024 7:43 am

Trump’s “Secretary Of Retribution” seems nice

https://www.thedailybeast.com/rep-jamie ... etribution

His Twitter feed seems sane https://x.com/ivanraiklin/status/170931 ... 03836?s=61

Apparently regularly turns up to congressional meetings. Here he is eyeballing Fauci
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by lpm » Fri Jul 12, 2024 12:14 am

I'm watching this press conference.

Biden is nothing like the debate. A couple of silly gaffes, classic Biden, that everyone will talk about. But everything else is intelligent and competent.

The usual stumbling over words and a tendency to ramble a bit - but that's more because there's too much he wants to say.

He certainly knows foreign policy and unites the Nato allies.
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