Indecision 2024

[bolo]

McCarthy is Republican Party establishment. That makes him far right by the standards of this forum, but he's not a bomb thrower. He's about obtaining, maintaining, and exercising institutional power, much more than any particular ideological position. If the party consensus changed on any of those things dyqik mentioned, McCarthy would change right along with them.

He's said he's not looking to go back to being speaker, but I wouldn't be surprised if that changes at some point. He's only 58. McConnell is 81. McCarthy has plenty of political career left in him if he wants it.

[dyqik]

Looks like I was right about Indecision 2023.

[bjn]

Looks like I was right about Indecision 2023.

??

[IvanV]

McCarthy is Republican Party establishment. That makes him far right by the standards of this forum, but he's not a bomb thrower. He's about obtaining, maintaining, and exercising institutional power, much more than any particular ideological position. If the party consensus changed on any of those things dyqik mentioned, McCarthy would change right along with them.

He's said he's not looking to go back to being speaker, but I wouldn't be surprised if that changes at some point. He's only 58. McConnell is 81. McCarthy has plenty of political career left in him if he wants it.

What I don't understand about the affair is why the Democrats voted with the Republican head-bangers to unseat McCarthy. There's an explanation (Time Magazine) here. In that, they quote Democrats saying that McCarthy is the most unprincipled person ever to be Speaker, and so needed to be removed. But whilst the first part of that is probably true, as the journalist says towards the bottom of that article, there's a substantial likelihood the replacement will be even worse. The Republicans have plenty of even worse people, and the dynamic in the Republican party is in favour of such people. Gaetz initiated this because he wanted someone even worse, and so must have thought he could get one. So I don't find what the Democrats were saying adds up, and I'm sure what the journalist said must have occurred to them. I've read the Washington Post too, but it says the same thing at greater length.

[lpm]

Huh?

That's like saying Labour would be wrong to vote against Johnson and it's their fault Johnson gets replaced by Truss.

The opposition should always oppose.

The Democrats should vote Jeffries at any vote.

[TopBadger]

A month ago McCarthy decided to proceed with impeachment nonsense against Biden to placate the loony fringe of the GOP.

It was viewed as risky at the time, because whilst Biden Jr may have done some stupid stuff there is no evidence at all that implicates Biden Snr. The GOP were essentially trying to use the crimes of the son to tarnish the father.

Having done that, how can you expect any D's to vote to keep the guy in post when he's gunning for your president on zero evidence?

McCarthy checkmated himself.

[IvanV]

Huh?

That's like saying Labour would be wrong to vote against Johnson and it's their fault Johnson gets replaced by Truss.

The opposition should always oppose.

The Democrats should vote Jeffries at any vote.

It depends how you specify the analogy. It's one thing to vote to bring down Johnson, it's another thing to do it on a motion brought by Mark Francois with the specific intention of replacing him with someone more extremely right wing, because Johnson dared to cooperate on something with the Labour Party.

They didn't have to vote at all. They could have left it as an internal Republican bun-fight. As you say, they should vote Jeffries in any vote on the Speaker, ie, not for any Republican, and so stay out of internal Republican bunfights. So why did they participate in this internal Republican bunfight?

Wouldn't it have been a kind of a victory for the Democrats that the Republicans didn't vote out someone, on a vote brought by a hard right Republican because he cooperated with the Democrats? Wouldn't it have been a useful step back in the direction of more cooperative bipartisan politics, which America really needs?

The current leading candidate, after Scalise dropped out, is Jim Jordan who as a member of the Freedom Caucus seems to be more extreme than McCarthy and Scalise. Though apparently not extreme enough for some.

If the house can't elect a Speaker, then it can't do a deal to prevent a government shutdown when the present deal runs out in mid-Nov. It was hard enough for the house to elect McCarthy as speaker. Probably the trick he used to break the deadlock that time can't be repeated, as the hard right won't go for it again. It does some bear parallel with the situation Mrs May found herself in where she was being held to ransom by minority on the hard right of her party. And they can play that card because refusing to cooperate obtains the political destruction they are looking for.

[bolo]

It was abundantly clear that some Democrats would have been willing to vote present on the motion to vacate, if McCarthy had offered them something in exchange. He didn't. He refused even to speak with them about the possibility.

[monkey]

Letting the republicans have their bun fight and possibly cause a shutdown makes them look a whole lot weaker in the run up to the election, if your cynical and think that they might care more about that than bipartisaning and maybe getting something done, which I might be.

[bolo]

A good picture of the chaos: House Republicans collapse into anarchy

War in Israel. War in Ukraine. The federal government shutting down in 35 days. These are uncertain times.

But there is one eternal truth, one unwavering constant to steady us when all else is in flux: Every time the House Republican majority tries to govern, it’s guaranteed to turn into a goat rodeo.

[dyqik]

Looks like I was right about Indecision 2023.

??

From Politico:

A group of moderate New York Republicans huddled in Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s office ahead of an anticipated Tuesday afternoon vote to try and oust the speaker.
“The meeting went well, I think the consensus is that Matt Gaetz is an a..hole,” said Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.) following the meeting.

Indecision 2023 incoming? (for speaker).

[dyqik]

Letting the republicans have their bun fight and possibly cause a shutdown makes them look a whole lot weaker in the run up to the election, if your cynical and think that they might care more about that than bipartisaning and maybe getting something done, which I might be.

Given a choice between passing a republican spending bill that guts the US government effectively until 2025 (e.g. 15% cuts to the Smithsonian budget numbers, 80% cuts to funding schools in poorest areas, etc., with mandated unfunded 5.2% salary increases), and a shutdown that lasts about a month, a shutdown blamed on the Republicans is probably the better bipartisan option anyway.

[lpm]

Oh Sidney, you haven't made a deal have you? You wouldn't betray the Orange One?

[FlammableFlower]

Please!!! I really hope so.

[lpm]

It's a fun bit of Game Theory.

She's moved first and gets the best deal. No prison time. But has to testify at the Georgia trial - and it likely means she folds on all the other law suits she's facing round the country.

And the next bunch of minor players will see how generous it can be and make a rush for deals. The fines will be far lower than legal costs. But at some point the door closes.

The Fed trials are different, because a presidential pardon comes into the game.

[IvanV]

This Reuters article indicates that the Chesebro trial due to kick-off on Georgia on Monday could allow Trump to see the nature of the evidence they have against him in Georgia. Chesebro is one of 17 charged with the same things as Trump, and has apparently opted for an early trial. Whatever evidence they have is likely to have a large common component for all the defendants.

Made me wonder if Chesebro is not making a plea deal and going for early trial precisely so that Trump gets that potential advantage. I suppose the prosecutors also get a dry run.

[Grumble]

It's a fun bit of Game Theory.

She's moved first and gets the best deal. No prison time. But has to testify at the Georgia trial - and it likely means she folds on all the other law suits she's facing round the country.

And the next bunch of minor players will see how generous it can be and make a rush for deals. The fines will be far lower than legal costs. But at some point the door closes.

The Fed trials are different, because a presidential pardon comes into the game.

Not first overall, unless I’m mixing my trials up, but first of the major players for sure.

[lpm]

This Reuters article indicates that the Chesebro trial due to kick-off on Georgia on Monday could allow Trump to see the nature of the evidence they have against him in Georgia. Chesebro is one of 17 charged with the same things as Trump, and has apparently opted for an early trial. Whatever evidence they have is likely to have a large common component for all the defendants.

Made me wonder if Chesebro is not making a plea deal and going for early trial precisely so that Trump gets that potential advantage. I suppose the prosecutors also get a dry run.

Why does that make sense when prosecutors have already provided the defence with their disclosure and witness lists? There won't be any surprises, it's not the movies.

[dyqik]

Looks like I was right about Indecision 2023.

??

From Politico:

Indecision 2023 incoming? (for speaker).

Indecision 2023 might be formally voted in as an official Indecision today.

[headshot]

In other news, Trump’s attorney Sidney Powell has pleaded guilty and taken a deal in the Georgia election conspiracy trial:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/19/poli ... index.html

Which means it’s pretty impossible for the other co-conspirators to get away with anything.

[Grumble]

In other news, Trump’s attorney Sidney Powell has pleaded guilty and taken a deal in the Georgia election conspiracy trial:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/19/poli ... index.html

Which means it’s pretty impossible for the other co-conspirators to get away with anything.

Did you miss the last 7 posts?

[headshot]

In other news, Trump’s attorney Sidney Powell has pleaded guilty and taken a deal in the Georgia election conspiracy trial:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/19/poli ... index.html

Which means it’s pretty impossible for the other co-conspirators to get away with anything.

Did you miss the last 7 posts?

Apparently, yes.

[Grumble]

Good article though, gives me hope.

[lpm]

Et tu, Chesebro?

[dyqik]

Is Gym Jordan tired of all the winning yet?