Indecision 2024

[Brightonian]

Speaker Johnson has no bank account. Or at least, he keeps his balance below $1,000 at all times: https://www.thedailybeast.com/does-new- ... nk-account

[bolo]

Those financial disclosure forms are a pain in the ass, and the instructions are unclear and 125 pages long. It has to be at least 50-50 that he just screwed up the form.

[Woodchopper]

President Biden is trailing Donald J. Trump in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election, suffering from enormous doubts about his age and deep dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy and a host of other issues, new polls by The New York Times and Siena College have found.

The results show Mr. Biden losing to Mr. Trump, his likeliest Republican rival, by margins of four to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden is ahead only in Wisconsin, by two percentage points, the poll found.

[…]

Discontent pulsates throughout the Times/Siena poll, with a majority of voters saying Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them. The survey also reveals the extent to which the multiracial and multigenerational coalition that elected Mr. Biden is fraying. Demographic groups that backed Mr. Biden by landslide margins in 2020 are now far more closely contested, as two-thirds of the electorate sees the country moving in the wrong direction.

Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump’s edge in rural regions. And while women still favored Mr. Biden, men preferred Mr. Trump by twice as large a margin, reversing the gender advantage that had fueled so many Democratic gains in recent years.

Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.

Add it all together, and Mr. Trump leads by 10 points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona, five in Michigan and four in Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden held a 2-point edge in Wisconsin.

In a remarkable sign of a gradual racial realignment between the two parties, the more diverse the swing state, the farther Mr. Biden was behind, and he led only in the whitest of the six.

Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are both deeply — and similarly — unpopular, according to the poll. But voters who overwhelmingly said the nation was on the wrong track are taking out their frustrations on the president.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/p ... ticleShare

Obviously there is still a year to go and a lot could change. But this definitely isn’t where we want to be.

[IvanV]

... a majority of voters saying Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them.

...But voters who overwhelmingly said the nation was on the wrong track are taking out their frustrations on the president.

And this in a country whose economy is doing a lot better than most other places in the developed world. Why do voters think the country is going in the wrong direction and Biden's policies have hurt them? Are these plausible opinions, or is clever misinformation misleading them?

[Woodchopper]

... a majority of voters saying Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them.

...But voters who overwhelmingly said the nation was on the wrong track are taking out their frustrations on the president.

And this in a country whose economy is doing a lot better than most other places in the developed world. Why do voters think the country is going in the wrong direction and Biden's policies have hurt them? Are these plausible opinions, or is clever misinformation misleading them?

One explanation is that politically, inflation is far worse than a recession. Inflation affects everyone who isn't on an index linked income. Subsequent interest rate rises affect everyone who is in debt. Conversely, recessions tend to hit a small part of the electorate very hard, but the majority who keep their jobs carry on as before.

The good news is that at least going by the statistics, inflation is no longer a problem in the US. So people might feel better about their situations over then next year before the election.

Perhaps more worrying is the steady increase in republican support among black and Hispanic Americans. This appears to have been going on for several years and looks like a more ling term structural change which may be harder for the Democrats to counteract.

[Grumble]

And this in a country whose economy is doing a lot better than most other places in the developed world. Why do voters think the country is going in the wrong direction and Biden's policies have hurt them? Are these plausible opinions, or is clever misinformation misleading them?

One explanation is that politically, inflation is far worse than a recession. Inflation affects everyone who isn't on an index linked income. Subsequent interest rate rises affect everyone who is in debt. Conversely, recessions tend to hit a small part of the electorate very hard, but the majority who keep their jobs carry on as before.

The good news is that at least going by the statistics, inflation is no longer a problem in the US. So people might feel better about their situations over then next year before the election.

Perhaps more worrying is the steady increase in republican support among black and Hispanic Americans. This appears to have been going on for several years and looks like a more ling term structural change which may be harder for the Democrats to counteract.

I’ve always been worried by the line of reasoning which goes “the minority population of X is increasing and therefore based on past voting patterns the more progressive party will increase its vote”. That has always smacked of taking a vote for granted, which is a bad mistake. Ignores the increase coming from immigration from conservative places and the increase of diversity of opinion that will come from increase in population

[dyqik]

And this in a country whose economy is doing a lot better than most other places in the developed world. Why do voters think the country is going in the wrong direction and Biden's policies have hurt them? Are these plausible opinions, or is clever misinformation misleading them?

One explanation is that politically, inflation is far worse than a recession. Inflation affects everyone who isn't on an index linked income. Subsequent interest rate rises affect everyone who is in debt. Conversely, recessions tend to hit a small part of the electorate very hard, but the majority who keep their jobs carry on as before.

The good news is that at least going by the statistics, inflation is no longer a problem in the US. So people might feel better about their situations over then next year before the election.

Perhaps more worrying is the steady increase in republican support among black and Hispanic Americans. This appears to have been going on for several years and looks like a more ling term structural change which may be harder for the Democrats to counteract.

Don't trust polling too much on most of these things.

Normal people no longer answer the phone to unknown numbers nor sign up to polling requests from email spam.

The selection effects in polling are getting worse and worse all the time.

[monkey]

Judge Engoron is *not* happy with Trump right now. He just threatened to kick him out of court and "draw every negative inference that I can."

(Trump is not answering questions and seems to be using the stand as a platform)

[Grumble]

Judge Engoron is *not* happy with Trump right now. He just threatened to kick him out of court and "draw every negative inference that I can."

(Trump is not answering questions and seems to be using the stand as a platform)

Is he playing chicken with the judge?

[monkey]

Judge Engoron is *not* happy with Trump right now. He just threatened to kick him out of court and "draw every negative inference that I can."

(Trump is not answering questions and seems to be using the stand as a platform)

Is he playing chicken with the judge?

I think he knows he's going to get a big fine whatever and is doing his best to get his supporters angry at the courts.

[tenchboy]

A gem amongst many.

The state is asking about a 2021 financial statement. Trump says he thinks it's accurate - he hopes so.

“I was so busy in the White House,” he says, adding his focus was on China and Russia.

"For the record, you weren't president in 2021 were you?" prosecutor Kevin Wallace asks.

Trump says no.

From BBC Live highlights