Indecision 2024

[dyqik]

Never quite understood the value of rallies in US politics.

Presumably all the attendees were going to vote for the candidate anyway?

Do clips for the news with loads of people waving and cheering really make that much difference?

Never really caught on over here - after the notorious Sheffield rally of 1992.

It predates mass media, really, when presidential candidates used to have to tour the country to build up party support as well as voter support in each city and state.

Now, it provides local news* coverage that the candidate came to your local city/state, that they are popular there, and provides a focus for the local parties to build teams of volunteers for the election. Unlike the UK, the elections are mainly state by state affairs, with a little less emphasis on (much larger) congressional consistencies, and less national organization.

* In the US, there are very few national news outlets, and lots of local ones. On broadcast TV, all the news is at least partly local, and the only specific national newspaper is USA Today. With state politics, local politics is way more important than in the UK

[dyqik]

Also, NV and AZ are places where Republicans are more libertarian tending. Once the Project 2025 attacks start up, they will work better there.

Remember that the Democrats haven't had their convention yet, and haven't really started the campaign.

[Woodchopper]

Never quite understood the value of rallies in US politics.

Presumably all the attendees were going to vote for the candidate anyway?

Do clips for the news with loads of people waving and cheering really make that much difference?

Never really caught on over here - after the notorious Sheffield rally of 1992.

It predates mass media, really, when presidential candidates used to have to tour the country to build up party support as well as voter support in each city and state.

Now, it provides local news* coverage that the candidate came to your local city/state, that they are popular there, and provides a focus for the local parties to build teams of volunteers for the election. Unlike the UK, the elections are mainly state by state affairs, with a little less emphasis on (much larger) congressional consistencies, and less national organization.

* In the US, there are very few national news outlets, and lots of local ones. On broadcast TV, all the news is at least partly local, and the only specific national newspaper is USA Today. With state politics, local politics is way more important than in the UK

I agree, and this bit is crucial "and provides a focus for the local parties to build teams of volunteers for the election".

As you'll know but others may not, the US doesn't have a system of mass party membership as is found in Europe (I don't know about Australia). Someone couldn't become a member of the Democratic party in the US as they could join the Labour party in the UK. So candidates need to do more to establish direct links with people who would be willing to provide them with support. Prior to the election this means doing things like donating money and sharing material on social media. On election day the get out the vote operation is crucial in a close race (as it is elsewhere). If 15 000 people turn up to a rally then the candidates operations will do their best to collect contact information so that as many as possible of the 15 000 can be encouraged to play a greater role.

[lpm]

Need to let the Harris-Walz over-excitement run its course and see how they do in the long slog to the line.

One week to the Convention. Three weeks to Labor Day. Four weeks to the first debate, although I suspect it will be a non-event - we've had the one that mattered.

Polls at 17 September onwards will probably be pretty indicative of where it will end up.

[Woodchopper]

All comes down to Pennsylvania. If the polls stay where they are now, MI and WI will go Dem, NV and AZ will go Rep. That puts the Dems on 251 and Reps on 252. If that's how it goes, Pennsylvania decides it, Georgia is relevant only from the perspective of faithless electors - 270-268 gives a massive risk that one or two cockwombles will turn to Trump from Harris.

Harris is heading into contention in Trump's winning states.

There was a poll last night that had a tie in North Carolina (Trump won by 1.3 in 2020, Obama just squeaked a win in 2008).

Next stop Florida, Texas and Ohio (Trump 2020 +3, +6 and +8).

Here's the North Carolina poll: https://carolinaforward.org/wp-content/ ... 0001&ceid=

[dyqik]

Also, NV and AZ are places where Republicans are more libertarian tending. Once the Project 2025 attacks start up, they will work better there.

Remember that the Democrats haven't had their convention yet, and haven't really started the campaign.

And on the fourth hand, Arizona's economy is booming, growing 12% over the past four years, twice the rate of the US average.

[monkey]

It's hard to tell with Trump. There's no normal baseline to compare to.

For example last night he ranted for a while about Hillary Clinton instead of Harris. Totally mad and you wonder if he knows what year it is and if he's lost touch with reality. But then you remember he also ranted about Hillary Clinton instead of Biden in 2020. Is it worse now? Who can tell.

He plays truant from his campaign to have a round of golf, but then he played truant from his presidency to play golf. Does it mean trauma or just laziness.

The language analysis is interesting, as is the percentage of sentences not completed, but those seem to be signifiers of ageing rather than mental distress.

I had a look at his previous campaigns.

2020 was weird due to Covid.

But if we compare the roughly three weeks between 22 July and 11 August 2024 to 2026 there does seem to be a big difference.

2016 - 20 rallies, and they are mostly in what were the battleground states. He did two rallies per day on seven days.

2024 - 5 rallies, four in battleground states, and one in Montana. Three in the first week, then one per week.

Compared to eight years ago, Trump has slowed down a lot.

Age is the most likely explanation. Harris may have a key advantage in stamina alone.

Of course Trump could pick up the pace later.

Numbers from Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_p ... mp_rallies
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_r ... l_campaign

Read a theory on twitter earlier (lost the link, sorry) that he can't do rallies because he's not been paying his policing bills so cities are reluctant to let him. I am skeptical about that 'cos I bet you can always find a friendly city council or one scared of 1st amendment lawsuits if they refuse, but not paying what you owe is very Trump, so I believe that bit.

I think it's because he's had to change his campaign now Harris is the nominee. Got to work out what works for his base before going in heavy with it, so he's just doing a few warm up shows. Harris also hasn't really started yet, so they might just be waiting to see what her campaign looks like.

[dyqik]

Also, NV and AZ are places where Republicans are more libertarian tending. Once the Project 2025 attacks start up, they will work better there.

Remember that the Democrats haven't had their convention yet, and haven't really started the campaign.

And on the fourth hand, Arizona's economy is booming, growing 12% over the past four years, twice the rate of the US average.

Oh, and abortion rights are now officially on the Arizona ballot as a ballot initiative.

[Woodchopper]

I think it's because he's had to change his campaign now Harris is the nominee. Got to work out what works for his base before going in heavy with it, so he's just doing a few warm up shows. Harris also hasn't really started yet, so they might just be waiting to see what her campaign looks like.

Yes, and one aspect is that Clinton and then Biden had been Republican targets for a long time. Trump had well honed attack lines that had been developed over years. But Trump seems to have mostly ignored Harris despite her being the VP.

[dyqik]

I think it's because he's had to change his campaign now Harris is the nominee. Got to work out what works for his base before going in heavy with it, so he's just doing a few warm up shows. Harris also hasn't really started yet, so they might just be waiting to see what her campaign looks like.

Yes, and one aspect is that Clinton and then Biden had been Republican targets for a long time. Trump had well honed attack lines that had been developed over years. But Trump seems to have mostly ignored Harris despite her being the VP.

In Clinton's case, those attacks only worked because of 20 years building up those attacks in the minds of the public, so they the attacks were telling people what they already had heard. In Biden's case, they didn't work, despite 12 years preparation.

Now, they've got minimal preparation.

[Gfamily]

Marina Hyde on the Musk/Trump - umm, thing
Worth a read

[Nero]

Marina Hyde on the Musk/Trump - umm, thing
Worth a read

A splendid read indeed.

[jimbob]

Marina Hyde on the Musk/Trump - umm, thing
Worth a read

A splendid read indeed.

Steven King referred to it

[Chris Preston]

The Trump Musk fireside chat to reboot Trump's campaign, seems to have done nothing to help Trump's campaign despite more than a billion people viewing it.

I am a bit unsure which was the most effective part: where Trump was praising Musk for firing staff because they were asking fir a pay rise, the gushing over Putin, Xi, Madura and Kim, or the suggestion from Trump that he and Musk should flee to Venezuela.

[Sciolus]

The Trump Musk fireside chat to reboot Trump's campaign, seems to have done nothing to help Trump's campaign despite more than a billion tw.tter-bots "viewing" it.

FTFY.

[dyqik]

I am a bit unsure which was the most effective part: where Trump was praising Musk for firing staff because they were asking fir a pay rise, the gushing over Putin, Xi, Madura and Kim, or the suggestion from Trump that he and Musk should flee to Venezuela.

The first one will probably have the most effect: the head of the Teamsters union (truck drivers, warehouse workers etc.) spoke at the RNC, indicating openness to Trump, and has expressed outrage at Trump's comments. The United Auto Workers union has already started campaigning against Trump because of it. Both of those will reach beyond union workers.

Frankly, that's going to have more effect on the white working class vote than international politics and flowing to Venezuela.

[Woodchopper]

Obviously needs to be taken with a whole sackload of salt, but interesting:

[...] the former president’s allies are describing the way he has blown his once commanding lead in the presidential race. “It’s like he’s choosing to lose,” a frustrated Republican close to the campaign said.

Trump has been in a self-destructive spiral since the moment Democrats replaced Joe Biden with Kamala Harris. [...]

Republican donors and Trump campaign officials are struggling to understand why Trump seems to be sabotaging his own candidacy. One theory, according to sources, is that Trump has been experiencing trauma from his near-death experience following the assassination attempt at the rally last month in Butler, Pennsylvania. “He’s been watching that seven-second clip of how close he was to getting shot right in the head—over and over and over again,” the Republican close to the campaign said.

[...]

Another theory is that Trump can’t let go of the fact that Biden dropped out. “They cheated by swapping Biden,” Trump has told people, according to a person who recently spent time with the Republican presidential nominee. The Trump campaign believed that Harris’s honeymoon would fade, but instead, the opposite has happened: Her momentum is surging. Trump’s advisers have implored him to launch policy attacks on Harris instead of using juvenile nicknames like Laffin Kamala and Kamabla.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/story/t ... g-campaign

[El Pollo Diablo]

Is there meant to be some obvious insult in "Kamabla" that we can all latch onto? I don't get it.

[Woodchopper]

Is there meant to be some obvious insult in "Kamabla" that we can all latch onto? I don't get it.

Trump has a long history of deliberately misspelling or mispronouncing people's names, I assume because he thinks that he's asserting dominance. He's a school yard bully doling out petty slights to show how hard he is.

[Woodchopper]

The first Emerson College Polling national survey following President Biden’s decision not to seek re-election finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 50% to 46%. Five percent of likely voters are undecided. With undecided voters’ support allocated, Harris continues to lead by four, 52% to 48%. With third-party candidates on the ballot, Harris and Trump’s support evenly decreases by two points, Harris to 48% and Trump to 44%. Four percent support Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

This month’s national poll included only those who indicate they are very likely to vote, previous polls included all registered voters. Registered voters were asked their voting intention and only very likely voters were included in this analysis.

Since last month, Trump’s support decreased two points among likely voters, from 48% to 46%, while Harris surpassed Biden’s 47% by three percentage points, at 50%. When third-party candidates are on the ballot, Trump’s support decreased by one point, from 45% to 44% since last month, while Harris outperformed Biden by four points from 44% to 48%.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, explains demographic shifts in the past month: “Likely voters under 30 have shifted toward Harris by nine points, 56% of whom supported Biden, 65% now support Harris. Voters over 70 also support Harris over Trump, 51% to 48% — last month they broke 50% to 48% for Trump.”

Kimball added, “Independents break for Harris, 46% to 45%, flipping since last month when likely independent voters broke for Trump 45% to 44%.

[…]

“While the overall share of likely voters motivated to vote had little movement, Black voters who say they are ‘extremely’ or ‘very’ motivated to vote this November increased eleven points, from 80% to 91%,” Kimball said.

More at the link: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/augus ... -trump-46/

[Chris Preston]

The poll trackers now have Harris in front in Georgia. The only swing state Trump now leads in is North Carolina.

Trump's campaign seems to believe it has found a weakness in Harris on press conferences. Press conferences seem to be replacing rallies for Trump. I am not sure that the deranged press conferences that Trump is holding where he rants for 45 minutes before taking questions are really helping.

[dyqik]

The poll trackers now have Harris in front in Georgia. The only swing state Trump now leads in is North Carolina.

Trump's campaign seems to believe it has found a weakness in Harris on press conferences. Press conferences seem to be replacing rallies for Trump. I am not sure that the deranged press conferences that Trump is holding where he rants for 45 minutes before taking questions are really helping.

Particularly when he declares that the economy is crashing next to a box of Froot Loops above a Fox News chyron showing the Dow up 550 points.

[Chris Preston]

Polls now have Harris leading in North Carolina. Although, Georgia has shifted back to Trump.

Trump can still turn this around, but holding an Awards Gala for the January 6 "hostages" at Trump's golf club is probably not the way to do it.

[Grumble]

Polls now have Harris leading in North Carolina. Although, Georgia has shifted back to Trump.

Trump can still turn this around, but holding an Awards Gala for the January 6 "hostages" at Trump's golf club is probably not the way to do it.

Polls are wobbling around inside the margin of error aren’t they?

[Chris Preston]

For the swing states, Wisconsin is now outside the margin or error, but all others are within. Perhaps the more important point is that there has been a 3 to 4% swing to Harris in Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona in the past 3 weeks. The swing has been between 1 and 2% in Pennsylvania and North Carolina and less than 1% in Georgia and Nevada. The movements in the polls have been reasonably consistent. The bouncing around has really been in Nevada and Georgia.