Indecision 2024

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jimbob
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by jimbob » Mon Jul 22, 2024 3:59 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2024 7:26 pm
dyqik wrote:
Sun Jul 21, 2024 6:55 pm
Biden not announcing until Trump is locked in as the Republican nominee is a good move, btw. Trump's negatives are a rich target, plus now he's the old and doddering candidate who rambles on
He was just Biden his time
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Gfamily
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Gfamily » Mon Jul 22, 2024 4:24 pm

Lew Dolby wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2024 11:46 am
No (imho). I always think, in these situations, it would be better to pass the donations on to an appropriate charity rather than returning them.
Already happened, back in 2020
As the Sacramento Bee reported in 2020, she gave away the entire $6,000 he had given her as she began her run for the US Senate, bequeathing it to a civil rights non-profit working in Central America.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/art ... s-donation
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Grumble
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Grumble » Mon Jul 22, 2024 4:33 pm

Gfamily wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2024 4:24 pm
Lew Dolby wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2024 11:46 am
No (imho). I always think, in these situations, it would be better to pass the donations on to an appropriate charity rather than returning them.
Already happened, back in 2020
As the Sacramento Bee reported in 2020, she gave away the entire $6,000 he had given her as she began her run for the US Senate, bequeathing it to a civil rights non-profit working in Central America.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/art ... s-donation
Reported in 2020, presumably the act was some time before that.
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Gfamily
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Gfamily » Mon Jul 22, 2024 4:53 pm

Grumble wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2024 4:33 pm
Gfamily wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2024 4:24 pm
Lew Dolby wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2024 11:46 am
No (imho). I always think, in these situations, it would be better to pass the donations on to an appropriate charity rather than returning them.
Already happened, back in 2020
As the Sacramento Bee reported in 2020, she gave away the entire $6,000 he had given her as she began her run for the US Senate, bequeathing it to a civil rights non-profit working in Central America.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/art ... s-donation
Reported in 2020, presumably the act was some time before that.
Good point, was returned in
2015, a year after she won her reelection for attorney general and as she was launching her run for the Senate
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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lpm
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by lpm » Mon Jul 22, 2024 5:16 pm

Nate Silver says it needs 7-10 days to get proper polls. Hypothetical match ups are always dodgy.

Which means start of August.

The Convention is 19-22 August. Realistically we need to wait till start of September to assess the odds.
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by dyqik » Mon Jul 22, 2024 5:41 pm

lpm wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2024 5:16 pm
Nate Silver says it needs 7-10 days to get proper polls. Hypothetical match ups are always dodgy.

Which means start of August.

The Convention is 19-22 August. Realistically we need to wait till start of September to assess the odds.
(PSA: Nate Silver now works for a gambling company owned by Peter Thiel, a major backer of JD Vance and Trump. Govern your priors accordingly.)

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by dyqik » Mon Jul 22, 2024 7:27 pm

The Harris campaign has reportedly received more than $100m in the day since Biden's announcement. This is about the same amount of money that Trump had in total at the end of June.

I believe that this is on top of existing funds held by the Biden-Harris campaign.

Additionally, the Future Forward PAC supporting her has received $150m in the past day.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by discovolante » Mon Jul 22, 2024 7:32 pm

dyqik wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2024 7:27 pm
The Harris campaign has reportedly received more than $100m in the day since Biden's announcement. This is about the same amount of money that Trump had in total at the end of June.

I believe that this is on top of existing funds held by the Biden-Harris campaign.

Additionally, the Future Forward PAC supporting her has received $150m in the past day.
Wonderful that this is seen as a good thing in US politics :)
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by dyqik » Mon Jul 22, 2024 7:40 pm

discovolante wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2024 7:32 pm
dyqik wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2024 7:27 pm
The Harris campaign has reportedly received more than $100m in the day since Biden's announcement. This is about the same amount of money that Trump had in total at the end of June.

I believe that this is on top of existing funds held by the Biden-Harris campaign.

Additionally, the Future Forward PAC supporting her has received $150m in the past day.
Wonderful that this is seen as a good thing in US politics :)
You have to pay according to the rules of the game.

[sic]

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by dyqik » Mon Jul 22, 2024 7:43 pm

Still, cheaper than the Tories Rwanda policy campaign messaging.

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discovolante
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by discovolante » Mon Jul 22, 2024 9:35 pm

dyqik wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2024 7:40 pm
discovolante wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2024 7:32 pm
dyqik wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2024 7:27 pm
The Harris campaign has reportedly received more than $100m in the day since Biden's announcement. This is about the same amount of money that Trump had in total at the end of June.

I believe that this is on top of existing funds held by the Biden-Harris campaign.

Additionally, the Future Forward PAC supporting her has received $150m in the past day.
Wonderful that this is seen as a good thing in US politics :)
You have to pay according to the rules of the game.

[sic]
You come at the king, you best not miss.

The game is rigged, but you cannot lose if you do not play.

Wait...
To defy the laws of tradition is a crusade only of the brave.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Mon Jul 22, 2024 10:07 pm

If the Democrabs are successful in getting Harris elected, it'll be only the third time in US history that a Democrat president has handed over power to a Democrat president following an election. The last time was in 1857.
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by dyqik » Tue Jul 23, 2024 12:51 am

dyqik wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2024 7:40 pm
discovolante wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2024 7:32 pm
dyqik wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2024 7:27 pm
The Harris campaign has reportedly received more than $100m in the day since Biden's announcement. This is about the same amount of money that Trump had in total at the end of June.

I believe that this is on top of existing funds held by the Biden-Harris campaign.

Additionally, the Future Forward PAC supporting her has received $150m in the past day.
Wonderful that this is seen as a good thing in US politics :)
You have to pay according to the rules of the game.

[sic]
Although the campaign donations are limited to a bit over $5k per donor. So the $100 million is from at least 20,000 people, and probably more like a million giving $100.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by dyqik » Tue Jul 23, 2024 2:33 am

Seems like it's now $125m from 880,000 donors to ActBlue as a whole, with most going to the Harris campaign.

And 30,000 new campaign volunteers.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Martin Y » Tue Jul 23, 2024 7:49 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2024 10:07 pm
If the Democrabs are successful in getting Harris elected, it'll be only the third time in US history that a Democrat president has handed over power to a Democrat president following an election. The last time was in 1857.
If history does repeat itself, maybe we can look forward to Pres Harris's tenure ending with the US plunging into a new civil war.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Jul 23, 2024 7:54 am

dyqik wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2024 2:33 am
Seems like it's now $125m from 880,000 donors to ActBlue as a whole, with most going to the Harris campaign.

And 30,000 new campaign volunteers.
If my social media feeds are anything to go by a lot of people felt profound despair which has been replaced with hope.

I hope the support for Harris isn’t too volatile. It’s going to be a difficult few months until the election.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by dyqik » Tue Jul 23, 2024 10:36 am

Martin Y wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2024 7:49 am
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Mon Jul 22, 2024 10:07 pm
If the Democrabs are successful in getting Harris elected, it'll be only the third time in US history that a Democrat president has handed over power to a Democrat president following an election. The last time was in 1857.
If history does repeat itself, maybe we can look forward to Pres Harris's tenure ending with the US plunging into a new civil war.
That would require there to be an Abraham Lincoln figure in the Republican Party. So I think we can rule that out. Although those two Dem administrations followed two Whig administrations. Also the Dems were the party of slavery then.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by bjn » Tue Jul 23, 2024 10:57 am

So in the Billionaires for Trump camp we of course have Mr Musk, whose social media platform now not only actively promotes MAGA crap, but now blocks you from following Harris's campaign account. Technical glitch my arse. Rich arsehats are doing their best to stop Harris now that they have Biden's scalp.

https://dailyboulder.com/elon-musk-accu ... wers-on-x/

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by FlammableFlower » Tue Jul 23, 2024 11:52 am

Trump: Biden should drop out.

[Biden drops out, Harris becomes the likely candidate]

Trump: That's not fair, she can't run now Biden's dropped out.

Did Trump really think that, at this point in time, he would be unopposed if the previous lead opposing candidate dropped out?

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by lpm » Tue Jul 23, 2024 12:02 pm

You would have thought he could have nailed the basics. Most important to Trump, in his sad little mind, is coming up with the nickname. But he hasn't prepared one.

Is she Lyin' Kamala? No, he reserved Lyin' for Ted Cruz and Clinton.

He's tried Crazy Kamala, but he gets confused with Crazy Nancy.

When he said Laughin' Kamala he has muddled it up with Lyin' Kamala. He attempted to change his spelling to Laffin' Kamala.

He has also given Cackling Kamala a go, but the spelling is tricky and Kackling Kamala doesn't quite work.

He did well with Sleepy Joe, Ron DeSanctimonious, Crooked Hillary, Low Energy Jeb, Little Marco and Pocahontas. So why is he finding this so hard?
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by dyqik » Tue Jul 23, 2024 12:27 pm

FlammableFlower wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2024 11:52 am
Trump: Biden should drop out.

[Biden drops out, Harris becomes the likely candidate]

Trump: That's not fair, she can't run now Biden's dropped out.

Did Trump really think that, at this point in time, he would be unopposed if the previous lead opposing candidate dropped out?
Trump is all about stoking outrage, no matter how insane the premise.

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by philbo » Tue Jul 23, 2024 12:39 pm

Something I've often wondered: does Trump know what the word "sanctimonious" means?

It has always seemed a singularly inappropriate designation for DeSantis

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Martin_B » Tue Jul 23, 2024 1:21 pm

philbo wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2024 12:39 pm
Something I've often wondered: does Trump know what the word "sanctimonious" means?

It has always seemed a singularly inappropriate designation for DeSantis
Don't be daft. Next you'll be asking whether Trump really knows what covfefe means!
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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by IvanV » Tue Jul 23, 2024 2:35 pm

Someone was saying a few days ago that a lot of USanians - unsurprisingly - feel poor as a result of the Biden presidency, since the median household real income (MHRI) has fallen during Biden's presidency, even though gdp per capita has gone up. Though MHRI (the lower line) is a funny graph. It shot up in 2019, fell back a bit in 2020, and has fallen since. Though household income takes a while to assess, and the graph for MHRI only runs to 2022, while the GDP line runs to Q1 2024.

A number of questions occur:
Will Harris be equally blamed?
To what extent is inequality reduction within the power of presidents rather than states?
What caused the 2019 large increase?
What caused MHRI to fall even while the economy was growing well, under a Democrat presidency? Was that a serious misstep, or just out of his control?

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Re: Indecision 2024

Post by monkey » Tue Jul 23, 2024 3:39 pm

IvanV wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2024 2:35 pm
A number of questions occur:
Will Harris be equally blamed?
To what extent is inequality reduction within the power of presidents rather than states?
What caused the 2019 large increase?
What caused MHRI to fall even while the economy was growing well, under a Democrat presidency? Was that a serious misstep, or just out of his control?
The answers to those questions depends on your political leanings and/or where you get your news from, obviously.

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