Indecision 2024

Discussions about serious topics, for serious people
Post Reply
User avatar
headshot
Dorkwood
Posts: 1524
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:40 am

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by headshot » Thu Nov 07, 2024 9:15 am

Martin Y wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2024 8:38 am
As a foreigner, not properly exposed to the election campaign or the mood of the country, my question is not why she lost, it's why did the polls think she might not lose?

Before Biden withdrew, the impression I had received was that there was no real choice because people just didn't like Harris. After Biden dropped out it began to look as if I had got the wrong impression. So, were the polls wrong, and if so why?
Because her loss in the Electoral College swing states was within the margin of error.

User avatar
Martin Y
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3214
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:08 pm

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Martin Y » Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:07 am

headshot wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2024 9:15 am
Because her loss in the Electoral College swing states was within the margin of error.
Okay. So the polls weren't wrong. And the result wasn't any kind of landslide, except to the extent that it was a result that can occur within the 3%
margin of error of polls which said she had a very slight lead.

Or is that realistic? Sure, the results can be a few percent off either way, but if the coin flip comes up tails in state after state after state, eventually that starts to look less like random error and a lot more like a trend where they were systematically wrong.

User avatar
dyqik
Princess POW
Posts: 8122
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:19 pm
Location: Masshole
Contact:

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by dyqik » Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:47 am

Martin Y wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:07 am
headshot wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2024 9:15 am
Because her loss in the Electoral College swing states was within the margin of error.
Okay. So the polls weren't wrong. And the result wasn't any kind of landslide, except to the extent that it was a result that can occur within the 3%
margin of error of polls which said she had a very slight lead.

Or is that realistic? Sure, the results can be a few percent off either way, but if the coin flip comes up tails in state after state after state, eventually that starts to look less like random error and a lot more like a trend where they were systematically wrong.
The margin of error quoted in polls is the statistical random error based on the sample size. It does not include systematic errors due to polling methods, which can and does produce errors that are highly correlated between states. One estimate of the true margin of error including random and systematic errors from Harry Enten is about ±9%, I think on the margin/horse race between two candidates, but possibly he meant on each candidate's support, so double that on the horse race.

Systematic errors do not average down across multiple polls with similar methodologies.

And yes, this means that polls can not measure the absolute result well enough to predict the winner in a typical close election, although they can measure movement in the race if multiple polls with the same methodology are carried out over time.

The problem is then that the pollsters are chasing their systematic errors from the previous election, changing details of their methods, while also suffering a significant reduction in response rates. This means that you can't necessarily compare polls between elections, or often between primaries and the general election. And the election hinges on those that change their mind about voting/who to vote for, who are least likely to answer polls.

This also means that the media focus on polls vs issues means that there are more poorly informed voters who will break one way or another (and between voting and not voting) based on vague vibes that may or may not be a reflection of the candidates and the actual effects of their policies.

noggins
Catbabel
Posts: 630
Joined: Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:30 pm

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by noggins » Thu Nov 07, 2024 2:50 pm

noggins wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2024 7:57 am
Trump got 1.5m votes less than in 2020
Harris got 13m less votes than Biden

On the face of it the issue is soft-democrat apathy

*edit: not final figured, add a couple of million to both: same story
I was wrong. Its all because of 140,000 voters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. f.ck.

User avatar
headshot
Dorkwood
Posts: 1524
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:40 am

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by headshot » Thu Nov 07, 2024 3:16 pm

Martin Y wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:07 am
headshot wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2024 9:15 am
Because her loss in the Electoral College swing states was within the margin of error.
Okay. So the polls weren't wrong. And the result wasn't any kind of landslide, except to the extent that it was a result that can occur within the 3%
margin of error of polls which said she had a very slight lead.

Or is that realistic? Sure, the results can be a few percent off either way, but if the coin flip comes up tails in state after state after state, eventually that starts to look less like random error and a lot more like a trend where they were systematically wrong.
Or where there has been a systematic and persistent attempt to suppress votes for Democratic candidates and gerrymander the districts to all but ensure Republican victories.

User avatar
headshot
Dorkwood
Posts: 1524
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:40 am

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by headshot » Thu Nov 07, 2024 3:20 pm

Also, bear in mind that counting hasn't finished yet, so those vote totals will change and the actual number of voters for each candidate might not be as massively different from 2020 as they currently appear.

What's interested is that Trump gained in every district nationwide. Even in Democratic strongholds like California and New York, he increased his 2020 vote share. This wasn't a glitch in a swing state. It was a nationwide lean into Trump and his version of politics.

https://youtu.be/jVlBoC1TbZ4?si=NbvYMZshXACjPyL_&t=56

noggins
Catbabel
Posts: 630
Joined: Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:30 pm

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by noggins » Thu Nov 07, 2024 3:34 pm

% Share is misleading. Trump is going to end up with almost the same total votes as 2020.

philbo
Clardic Fug
Posts: 170
Joined: Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:06 am

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by philbo » Thu Nov 07, 2024 6:55 pm

Opti wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 12:46 pm
There's only one song to fit - Say it ain't so, Joe
I dunno... I'm just finishing off "Perp'll Reign", which I'm currently trying to get together a scratch band to play at the next local open mic :-)

User avatar
dyqik
Princess POW
Posts: 8122
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:19 pm
Location: Masshole
Contact:

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by dyqik » Thu Nov 07, 2024 8:15 pm

philbo wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2024 6:55 pm
Opti wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 12:46 pm
There's only one song to fit - Say it ain't so, Joe
I dunno... I'm just finishing off "Perp'll Reign", which I'm currently trying to get together a scratch band to play at the next local open mic :-)
My neighbor just sent me a link to Jarvis Cocker's "c.nts are still running the world"

User avatar
bob sterman
Dorkwood
Posts: 1228
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:25 pm
Location: Location Location

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by bob sterman » Thu Nov 07, 2024 10:39 pm

headshot wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2024 3:20 pm
Also, bear in mind that counting hasn't finished yet, so those vote totals will change and the actual number of voters for each candidate might not be as massively different from 2020 as they currently appear.
Yes - California has still got about another 6.5 million votes to report. These will probably close the gap between Harris and Trump by > 1 million. But she'll still be quite far short of Biden's total.

User avatar
Grumble
Light of Blast
Posts: 5142
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Grumble » Thu Nov 07, 2024 11:00 pm

One random beer thought. People say that politicians all lie, so they don’t see the difference with the outrageous lies that Trump tells. They all lie. And you can’t deny it, not really. A completely honest left wing politician would be interesting to see. Labour came to power promising not to raise taxes on working people. They are now raising taxes to an unprecedented degree. Yes, they have arguably stuck to their words, but they’re clearly weasel words.
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three

Chris Preston
Snowbonk
Posts: 582
Joined: Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:05 am

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Chris Preston » Fri Nov 08, 2024 4:10 am

There is quite a bit of difference between the behaviour of "normal" politicians and Trump. I would characterise most politicians lying to obscure the truth. Sometimes they do more than this. Trump on the other hand bullshits (I am guessing the swear filter will pick that one up). Bullshitting is a practice of stating things regardless of the truth and being only interested in the suitability of the comment for the current purpose.

There is also a difference in when they get caught. Politicians caught lying often have some consequences from loss of trust to having to apologise to loss of position. None of these consequences appear to happen to Trump. Trump is held to a completely different set of standards by the press to "normal" politicians. One reason I suspect is that there is so much b.llsh.t that it is difficult to focus on any one piece.
Here grows much rhubarb.

User avatar
bob sterman
Dorkwood
Posts: 1228
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:25 pm
Location: Location Location

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by bob sterman » Fri Nov 08, 2024 8:26 am

On the margin of victory - when it comes to the electoral college. Result looks like 226 Harris, 312 Trump.

With 99% of votes counted - the margins of victory across WI, MI and PA add up to about 250,000 votes.

So if 125,000 people had voted the opposte way across those 3 states we'd have Harris 270, Trump 268.

Notwithstanding the general movement towards Trump across the nation - with the electoral college - the final outcome can hinge on the decisions of a comparatively small group of voters.

User avatar
lpm
Junior Mod
Posts: 6448
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:05 pm

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by lpm » Fri Nov 08, 2024 8:40 am

That's a big gap. Significantly larger than Biden 2020 and Trump 2016.

But more importantly it's not that those 250,000 votes were outliers. They are fair and square in line with almost every county in America, with a surprisingly uniform swing to Trump.

Can't deny it was a solid win.
⭐ Awarded gold star 4 November 2021

User avatar
bob sterman
Dorkwood
Posts: 1228
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:25 pm
Location: Location Location

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by bob sterman » Fri Nov 08, 2024 8:59 am

lpm wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2024 8:40 am
That's a big gap. Significantly larger than Biden 2020 and Trump 2016.

But more importantly it's not that those 250,000 votes were outliers. They are fair and square in line with almost every county in America, with a surprisingly uniform swing to Trump.

Can't deny it was a solid win.
Not denying it was a solid win and in line with the trend across the US. Just pointing out that the outcome can hinge on a relatively small number of votes.

In 2020 Biden's margins of victory across WI, MI and PA also added up to about 250,000 votes. So actually very similar in those states. But Biden won a few others back in 2020.

User avatar
TopBadger
Catbabel
Posts: 875
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:33 pm
Location: Halfway up

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by TopBadger » Fri Nov 08, 2024 10:24 am

Looking like it will be a clean sweep for the Republicans.

Someone once explained to me that a common US voter thing was to split their vote, so if they voted R for president they voted D for Senate / House, on the basis that it's good to have a mix in branches of government for "checks and balances".

That seems to have gone out of the window, and the voters willingly, having seen what the guy is about, are about to give essentially as many levers of power to Trump as it's possible to give.

I know there is a separation of state and federal law - I can only assume a lot of voters are happy with the protections they imagine themselves to have under state law that they'll be insulated from whatever they perceive as Trump's negatives (willful disregard for rule of law, amongst other things), whilst benefitting from what they perceive as Trump's strengths (the economy).

I wonder how much voter remorse will be experienced over the next 4 and a bit years (and possibly more, if he refuses to leave the Whitehouse next time - assuming he lives that long)?
You can't polish a turd...
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html

User avatar
bjn
Stummy Beige
Posts: 3103
Joined: Wed Sep 25, 2019 4:58 pm
Location: London

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by bjn » Fri Nov 08, 2024 11:09 am

The mid terms will likely be interesting.

User avatar
jimbob
Light of Blast
Posts: 5572
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by jimbob » Fri Nov 08, 2024 12:00 pm

bjn wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2024 11:09 am
The mid terms will likely be interesting.
Hoping that Trump or Vance won't have time to load the SC with even more compliant judges, and that at least a couple of senators decide to drag their heels over their plans
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

noggins
Catbabel
Posts: 630
Joined: Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:30 pm

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by noggins » Fri Nov 08, 2024 1:08 pm

I wonder, are the 70m+ Trump voters basically the same 70m who voted for him in 2020, or has there been a lot of 'churn' ?

User avatar
shpalman
Princess POW
Posts: 8478
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:53 pm
Location: One step beyond
Contact:

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by shpalman » Fri Nov 08, 2024 3:03 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:19 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2024 12:52 pm
I think the war in Gaza was a big factor, too - a lot of Jews and Muslims thought Biden and Harris had failed "their" side, and voted Mental in response.
I disagree. The scale of the loss is just too much and too widespread for Gaza to be a big factor. I think that it's mostly sexism and racism which has been bolstered by the likes of Andrew Tate and Jordan Peterson who have captured a scarily large percentage of young men.
Richard Reeves on why Democrats lost young men
Richard Reeves wrote:So Republicans found success in the idea that the success of women has come at the expense of men.

In reality, it’s not zero sum. Men are not struggling because women are flourishing. But absent other reasons, it was allowed to become a more effective political strategy. What men heard from the right was: you’ve got problems, we don’t have solutions. What they heard from the left is: you don’t have problems, you are the problem. And between those two choices, it’s not really surprising to me that more men chose the Republican one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_R ... sh_author)
having that swing is a necessary but not sufficient condition for it meaning a thing
@shpalman@mastodon.me.uk
@shpalman.bsky.social / bsky.app/profile/chrastina.net
threads.net/@dannychrastina

User avatar
bolo
Dorkwood
Posts: 1051
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:17 pm
Location: Washington DC

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by bolo » Fri Nov 08, 2024 3:10 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2024 10:24 am
Someone once explained to me that a common US voter thing was to split their vote, so if they voted R for president they voted D for Senate / House, on the basis that it's good to have a mix in branches of government for "checks and balances".

That seems to have gone out of the window, and the voters willingly, having seen what the guy is about, are about to give essentially as many levers of power to Trump as it's possible to give.
Split ticket voting used to be much more common. It's become quite rare.

Even if the Republicans keep the House, having control of the House,.the Senate, and the Presidency doesn't necessarily mean it will be easy to pass controversial legislation. In the Senate, there's the filibuster. In the House,.with a narrow majority, it may be difficult to keep the Republican caucus together. They have a majority in the current House and have been pretty incapable of passing much. Think of how long it took them even to settle on a speaker.

User avatar
Stranger Mouse
Stummy Beige
Posts: 2753
Joined: Sat Dec 21, 2019 1:23 pm

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Stranger Mouse » Sat Nov 09, 2024 2:12 pm

Excellent work from Led By Donkeys projected on the Tesla Amsterdam building here. Worth watching the full video

https://x.com/bydonkeys/status/1855167804808331477?s=61
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works

User avatar
Woodchopper
Princess POW
Posts: 7400
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:05 am

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Nov 09, 2024 7:07 pm

Jon Favreau, a host of the political podcast “Pod Save America,” said during Friday’s episode that President Biden’s internal polling showed that President-elect Trump would win “400 electoral votes.”

“Then we find out when the Biden campaign becomes the Harris campaign, that the Biden campaign’s own internal polling at the time when they were telling us he was the strongest candidate, showed that Donald Trump was going to win 400 electoral votes,” Favreau said on the podcast in comments highlighted by Mediaite.

The “Pod Save America” hosts, who worked with Biden in the Obama White House, were among those leading the call for Biden to step aside as the democratic nominee this summer.

Favreau also called Biden’s reelection bid a “catastrophic mistake,” saying his “inner circle” refused to believe he was “unpopular.”

“They refuse to acknowledge until very late that anyone could be upset about inflation. And they just kept telling us that his presidency was historic and it was the greatest economy ever,” Favreau said.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... ral-votes/

User avatar
Grumble
Light of Blast
Posts: 5142
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 1:03 pm

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by Grumble » Sat Nov 09, 2024 9:06 pm

Of all the attack lines Trump had, the one about how Harris hadn’t been selected properly was hard to defend, because it was true. Yes it was all technically correct, but it wasn’t done the way people expect a presidential candidate to be selected. I’m not sure how much of a difference that made but it was definitely one of the factors Trump supporters mentioned in interviews.
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three

User avatar
jimbob
Light of Blast
Posts: 5572
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:04 pm
Location: High Peak/Manchester

Re: Indecision 2024

Post by jimbob » Sat Nov 09, 2024 9:11 pm

Grumble wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2024 9:06 pm
Of all the attack lines Trump had, the one about how Harris hadn’t been selected properly was hard to defend, because it was true. Yes it was all technically correct, but it wasn’t done the way people expect a presidential candidate to be selected. I’m not sure how much of a difference that made but it was definitely one of the factors Trump supporters mentioned in interviews.
It was a collection of lots of little things
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

Post Reply