Indecision 2024

[noggins]

“What can I say, I’m a sucker for second chances.”
Juan Campos, Xylophone Marketer

“I’m sure the adversity has helped him grow.”
Zach Cox, Skirt Hemmer

“It just goes to show that in America, any bad thing is possible.”
Janine Higdon, Beard Sculptor

[jimbob]

The NY Times has an interesting article in which thirteen young people who weren't sure how to vote in August explained their decisions. Of course they aren't a representative sample, and so it would be wrong to extrapolate their choices to the electorate. But it is still an interesting reminder that normal people (eg those who don't consume political coverage every day) are motivated by very different things than people highly engaged in politics (as in almost everyone posting on this thread).

For example, several said that the they voted Trump because he and Vance gave the impression of being more like regular people than Harris.

Here's the answers to the question:

Chris, 24, Fla., white, law student, voted Trump in 2020
I voted for Kamala Harris. I’d been leaning that way, especially after the debate. And Jan. 6 was something I couldn’t look past.

Mark, 24, Calif., Black, chef, voted Biden in 2020
I voted for Jill Stein. I came to that conclusion when Kamala said she wouldn’t do anything different from Joe Biden. It was also the war in Gaza and all the images I’ve seen. I couldn’t get over it.

Pierce, 26, N.C., white, sales, didn't vote in 2020
I voted for Donald Trump. I decided after Kamala went on “Call Her Daddy.”

Lillian, 27, Va., white, digital advertising, voted Trump in 2020
I voted for Trump and made that decision the same day the mainstream media was having a meltdown after the Madison Square Garden rally. I also saw an ad from Democrats about abortion misinformation that really made me upset. I said, “You know what? I’m going to vote for Trump. Everybody hates him. They’re lying about pregnancies. Let’s just do it.”

Joseph, 24, S.C., white, high school teacher, voted Biden in 2020
I voted Trump. I made the decision after he appeared on “Joe Rogan.” He just seemed more normal than the other side.

Jasper, 25, Calif., biracial, food service, voted Biden in 2020
I voted for Trump. It was after realizing that many Democrats only preferred Harris because of her rhetoric and not because of her policy.

Angelo, 19, N.Y., Latino, college worker, didn’t vote in 2020
I wrote in Josh Shapiro. I wanted to vote for someone who represented my ideas and beliefs rather than voting for someone who is too extreme or a phony.

Ayshah, 21, Iowa, South Asian, student, didn't vote in 2020
I ended up voting for Kamala Harris. I did not want to vote for a convicted felon.

Abigail, 23, Va., white, graduate assistant, voted Biden in 2020
I can’t believe it, but I did end up voting for Donald Trump. I made that decision when I saw JD Vance’s interview with The New York Times. He is the future of the Republican Party. I’m more voting for Vance than I am for Trump.

George, 21, Ga., white, student, didn't vote in 2020
I voted for Donald Trump. Like Abigail, I was really impressed with JD Vance, especially during the V.P. debate.

Laura, 20, Md., white, legal intern, didn't vote in 2020
I wrote in Larry Hogan. I made that decision after I saw Harris doing a lot of entertainment interviews and not focusing on actual interviews with CNN or Fox News or reputable news sources. I couldn’t, in good faith, vote for Trump knowing that he was facing criminal charges.

Jack, 22, N.Y., white, underwriter, voted Biden in 2020
I wrote in for Mike Bloomberg. I don’t like either top of the ticket.

McLane, 25, D.C., white, legal field, wrote in Romney in 2020
I shocked myself and voted for Trump. No one tell my family. I was so impressed by JD Vance, the way he carried himself and how normal he appeared. I think I became radicalized on the men and women’s sports issue. The ad that said, “Kamala represents they/them. Trump represents you,” that was so compelling. While Trump is deranged, he represented normalcy somehow to me.

Here's the answers to the question 'Was there a moment during the final two weeks of the race that caused you to think, “Oh, wow, this is not what I was expecting — this really matters to me”?'.

Chris, 24, Fla., white, law student, voted Trump in 2020
When John Kelly came out with a lot of force against Trump. This isn’t someone who is a leftist person, a Democrat. He’s a retired military general. That shook me to my core, that someone that close to Trump would say those things about him.

Jack, 22, N.Y., white, underwriter, voted Biden in 2020
The Joe Rogan interview was huge for me. Trump enthusiastically said yes to a three-hour, open, honest conversation with Joe Rogan, who was a former Bernie bro. I think it’s very telling about which candidate is authentic and which candidate is not.

Abigail, 23, Va., white, graduate assistant, voted Biden in 2020
I saw how the media has become so corrupted in their cause against Trump. There was that Trump clip of him saying: Put Cheney in front of a bunch of shooters. But he wasn’t actually implying Cheney should be shot. I cannot vote for an establishment that just thinks it’s OK to lie to us.

Laura, 20, Md., white, legal intern, didn't vote in 2020
I was looking for a candidate that I felt I could trust. A key moment that stuck out to me was the “S.N.L.” skit that Harris did, where she essentially made fun of herself. All her focus was going to entertainment industries and avoiding interviews. That came off to me as very phony.

Lillian, 27, Va., white, digital advertising, voted Trump in 2020
The thing that was really the nail in the coffin for me was when Biden called half the country garbage and then the White House moved to change the record officially. That really bothered me. That made me really want to rally against them.

Ayshah, 21, Iowa, South Asian, student, didn't vote in 2020
The last two weeks were extremely stressful, and I just didn’t want to stress about it anymore. I thought I might as well vote for her.

Joseph, 24, S.C., white, high school teacher, voted Biden in 2020
The mainstream media was carrying Kamala Harris’s water. We need a check on the president to have a healthy democracy. If Kamala Harris was elected, there wouldn’t be a check on her from the media.

Here's the responses to: How many of you, by show of hands, disliked both candidates? It is literally every single person here. What does that say to you about American democracy?

ierce, 26, N.C., white, sales, didn't vote in 2020
I don’t think we’ll ever see another election where there’s one candidate that truly wins in a Reagan landslide.

Jack, 22, N.Y., white, underwriter, voted Biden in 2020
I just think both candidates have serious drawbacks. With Trump, it’s being bombastic on social media, making up wild conspiracy theories, going back to the 2020 election. Kamala, she didn’t explain why to vote for her. She basically ran on vibes, and she ran on “not Trump.” You got to earn the American people’s vote.

Jasper, 25, Calif., biracial, food service, voted Biden in 2020
I kind of wish the Democrats had actually gone through the process of selecting someone rather than just kicking out Joe Biden and doing the hokeypokey with Kamala Harris.

Angelo, 19, N.Y., Latino, college worker, didn’t vote in 2020
Donald Trump was way too extreme for me. To not be able to admit that he lost the 2020 election, him not apologizing for what happened on Jan. 6 and then also him being a felon and surrounding himself with crazy people — that just sets me off. Kamala Harris, she just is probably one of the biggest phonies in politics right now.

Jack, 22, N.Y., white, underwriter, voted Biden in 2020
I wish there was an opportunity to elect someone a lot younger that I felt aligned with my values.

Mark, 24, Calif., Black, chef, voted Biden in 2020
I don’t agree with Trump on most of his policies. On the Kamala Harris end, I don’t think she made it to Super Tuesday in 2020. She’s just, at heart, not a good candidate. And the things she ran on in 2020, she flip-flopped on in 2024. It just shows she doesn’t have actual policy positions. She’s just in it for herself and to win. You don’t believe in anything, so why should I believe in you?

And finally, responses to: Was there a specific advertisement or political ad that you remember, either because it was awesome or because it insulted you or because it made you think?

McLane, 25, D.C., white, legal field, wrote in Romney in 2020
I mentioned it earlier — “Harris cares about they/them. Trump cares about you.” So powerful.


George, 21, Ga., white, student, didn't vote in 2020
It’s the same ad that McLane brought up but for different reasons. I think that ad is pretty indicative of what exactly is wrong with the Republican Party, going after a marginalized group. It annoyed the crap out of me. I couldn’t get a break from it.


Joseph, 24, S.C., white, high school teacher, voted Biden in 2020
It was a Trump ad — all of the more moderate people that he’s brought into his coalition were introduced. And it reminded me why I trust his judgment, in that sense, more than Kamala Harris. Now, if Kamala Harris picked Josh Shapiro, I’d probably be sitting here and telling you I voted for her, simply because I feel like he’s more moderate.


Lillian, 27, Va., white, digital advertising, voted Trump in 2020
When I had my son almost a year ago, I had a hemorrhage. And I live in a state with an abortion ban. And I was still able to receive lifesaving care. I had a visceral reaction to people saying I wouldn’t have received care, because it’s a lie. If they’re preying on people’s ignorance and, quite frankly, their stupidity and their fear, I want nothing to do with it.


Abigail, 23, Va., white, graduate assistant, voted Biden in 2020
The ad where there are two married couples and the two wives went in to vote secretly and they glanced at each other and then both voted for Kamala Harris — oh, my gosh. Is that what you think of married women, that we don’t have the confidence to marry men who are our equal partners? I cannot vote for a party that thinks that poorly of me.

Ayshah, 21, Iowa, South Asian, student, didn't vote in 2020
Whenever I’d see an ad where Kamala Harris would tell me that today is the day I should donate to her party, it was just like, “Girl, I’m broke. Go away. Let me watch my YouTube video.”

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... Position=1

Jesus wept

[bjn]

From the following article, the key quote is...

As Lindsay Beyerstein wrote, Donald Trump didn’t campaign against Harris. He campaigned against reality.

And won.

https://www.editorialboard.com/lets-be- ... publicans/

[FlammableFlower]

And now Kennedy for health secretary...

[Grumble]

It’s a Klown Kar Kabinet

[Chris Preston]

snip.

From the following article, the key quote is...

As Lindsay Beyerstein wrote, Donald Trump didn’t campaign against Harris. He campaigned against reality.

And won.

https://www.editorialboard.com/lets-be- ... publicans/

Indeed. The exit polling was indicating there was a large divide between voters for Trump and voters for Harris in what was important. Trump voters identified the economy and immigration as the most important issues. Many believed the economy was in terrible shape* and that illegal immigration was at record levels**. Harris voters identified the future of democracy and abortion as the most important issues.

This needs to be taken into account in any assessment of why Trump won. Voters for Trump and voters for Harris had almost completely different reasons for voting. What I find more worrying is that Trump has managed to outperform his 2020 bid by 2 million votes despite his dysfunctional campaign and his large negative approval rating. He has attracted a segment of mostly young Hispanic males***, but doesn't seem to have made any serious inroads elsewhere. What he has done is maintain his key base of white males without college degrees. Harris on the other hand underperformed Biden's 2020 campaign by 8 million votes and lost share among younger voters.

One interesting result I have noticed (once again I am worrying that I am letting my biases influencing my thinking here) is that Trump outperformed most of the state-level down ticket Republican candidates, sometimes by large margins. He got almost 200,000 more votes (4.5% difference) than Kari Lake in Arizona, despite Lake modelling herself and her campaign on Trump. He even outperformed Rick Scott in Florida. I know I shouldn't over-emphasise this, as local issues can play large roles in US politics. However, it does suggest the cult will not outlive Trump.

*To be fair here, while inflation is down and employment is up, prices have risen steeply since the pandemic ended, something even I have noticed, so it can feel like the economy is in bad shape, even though it is not.

**This one does seem to be a case of if you say something often enough and loud enough, people will believe it despite the evidence.

***I think a lot of commentators around Hispanic voters have tended to lump them together as a group. They are not, they are very diverse both in where they come from and how long they have been in the US. In the southwest, some families have been living in the US longer then a lot of the white families. A lot of Hispanics I know in Colorado do not see themselves as different to whites. This means a lot of Trump's rhetoric resonates with them - even on illegal immigration - particularly for the males.

[Chris Preston]

And now Kennedy for health secretary...

The Senate confirmation hearings are going to be interesting.

[Brightonian]

New York Post turns on Trump for appointing RFK Jr:

https://nypost.com/2024/11/14/opinion/p ... -medicine/

[Stranger Mouse]

And now Kennedy for health secretary...

The Senate confirmation hearings are going to be interesting.

They may not happen. Trump wants them to put the Senate into recess so he can skip the confirmation hearings and appoint them anyway.

If there are hearings I bet they reject one and keep two to try and keep him happy.

Unless someone leaks the Gaetz report

[bjn]

He’s appointing loyalists who are not going to invoke the 25th amendment against him regardless of what happens.

[jimbob]

It’s a Klown Kar Kabinet

Nice

[jimbob]

He’s appointing loyalists who are not going to invoke the 25th amendment against him regardless of what happens.

I still think Vance will.

The question is whether Trump's chaotic malignancy will be worse than Vance's more organised malignancy

[dyqik]

He’s appointing loyalists who are not going to invoke the 25th amendment against him regardless of what happens.

I still think Vance will.

The question is whether Trump's chaotic malignancy will be worse than Vance's more organised malignancy

The latter will definitely be worse. And won't break through to uninformed voters.

[Grumble]

Vance won’t invoke the 25th, not unless it gets to the point where Trump can’t articulate an objection. And even then I doubt it.

[jimbob]

Vance won’t invoke the 25th, not unless it gets to the point where Trump can’t articulate an objection. And even then I doubt it.

Yes but that's quite likely within the next four years.

Also I guess those pushing project 2025 want to get stuff implemented and Trump's incompetence would slow them down

[Grumble]

Vance won’t invoke the 25th, not unless it gets to the point where Trump can’t articulate an objection. And even then I doubt it.

Yes but that's quite likely within the next four years.

Also I guess those pushing project 2025 want to get stuff implemented and Trump's incompetence would slow them down

I think you’re doing some wishful thinking here. I’ve not seen any signs that Trump is about to decline. Having said that it’s definitely in the realm of possibility for a man approaching 80, I just don’t have confidence it will happen in the next 4 years

[jimbob]

Vance won’t invoke the 25th, not unless it gets to the point where Trump can’t articulate an objection. And even then I doubt it.

Yes but that's quite likely within the next four years.

Also I guess those pushing project 2025 want to get stuff implemented and Trump's incompetence would slow them down

I think you’re doing some wishful thinking here. I’ve not seen any signs that Trump is about to decline. Having said that it’s definitely in the realm of possibility for a man approaching 80, I just don’t have confidence it will happen in the next 4 years

It's not really wishful thinking. More like the opposite.

Trump's best feature is his relative ineptitude. Vance is likely to be more able to implement some really bad stuff

[Tristan]

Tulsi Gabbard for National Intelligence Director.

Now.... hear me out: viewtopic.php?f=14&t=4356

[IvanV]

What we are about to witness is kakistocracy, government by the worst.

[dyqik]

What we are about to witness is kakistocracy, government by the worst.

There's going to be a chunk of Idiocracy as well.

[bob sterman]

Vance won’t invoke the 25th, not unless it gets to the point where Trump can’t articulate an objection. And even then I doubt it.

Yes but that's quite likely within the next four years.

Also I guess those pushing project 2025 want to get stuff implemented and Trump's incompetence would slow them down

I think you’re doing some wishful thinking here. I’ve not seen any signs that Trump is about to decline. Having said that it’s definitely in the realm of possibility for a man approaching 80, I just don’t have confidence it will happen in the next 4 years

Depends if RFK Jr persuades him to stop taking his statins and start drinking beef tallow (he's in the pocket of "big tallow").

[IvanV]

What we are about to witness is kakistocracy, government by the worst.

There's going to be a chunk of Idiocracy as well.

There's a surprising number of Trump friends and supporters coming out and saying, you have to distinguish the rants, which predict nothing, from actual policy. So, for example, they think - hope - most of the terrible stuff is rant, not policy. Thus they justify, at least to their own conscience, that they did not vote for a fascist.

Certainly Trump has a record consistent with this description. He did not implement half of what he was ranting about last time around. And various more ridiculous things he implemented in a look-I'm-doing-it sort of way, which in practice it amounted to not very much, or receded to nothing a few months later when everyone had forgotten about it. For in reality it was stupid and self-defeating and the guy soon gets bored of his toys when he sees they aren't much fun. So these friends and supporters say, he's not a fascist, that's just the talk, that stuff is not going to happen. Or maybe we will see it happen in a show-but-not-actually-happening sort of way. Deporting 20m people, for example, is so damaging to the businessmen who support him, and would require so much money and so much infrastructure to implement, it's just not going to happen. They think. There'll maybe just be a somewhat more rigorous deportation system. And it will be harder to get across the border in the first place.

The problem is that no one can reliably distinguish the rants and showmanship from the deep policy. We can only hope these optimistic friends and supporters are right.

Idiocracy, rule by idiots, is a surprisingly recent jokey coining based on ideocracy, rule by ideologues. It's a word that has caught on, at least for now. The word I mention once similarly spawned khakistocracy, for a military dictatorship, a word which doesn't seem to sufficiently taken the popular imagination to hang around for long.

[Woodchopper]

From the following article, the key quote is...

As Lindsay Beyerstein wrote, Donald Trump didn’t campaign against Harris. He campaigned against reality.

And won.

https://www.editorialboard.com/lets-be- ... publicans/

That is a poor article.

Its argument is based upon a national level picture:

The allegation that Harris did not listen to working-class concerns is fantasy. She was explicit in her plan to expand the achievements of the Biden era, in which there was no recession, inflation went back to normal, unemployment sank to historic lows and real wages rose for everyone. Joe Biden invested hundreds of billions into working-class concerns, reviving manufacturing in ways no one has since the 1960s.

However, national level statistics aren't what the vast majority of the electorate will base their decisions on when asked about the state of the economy. They will base their assessment on their own households, their friends and family, and their local community. We know that there is a large amount of economic inequality in the US. When thinking about the state of the economy, someone in a small town in Wisconsin won't care about a booming tech sector in California. Moreover, if they experience that their household, or community, is worse off than in 2020, they are going to react negatively to some blogger or politician telling them that as the national level statistics are looking good any contrary view is based upon gullibly believing lies. And concerns about the economy may be longer running than four years. If someone has been working full time for ten years but can't afford to buy a house they may feel that there is something wrong with the economy, even if they are better off than they were four years ago.

At the risk of sounding like a skeptic enthusiast from 20 years ago, the article appears to be a good example of the ecological fallacy. To make the case properly, a blogger would need to drill down into the data on the type of people who actually turned out to vote for Trump. Are, for example, white men without a college degree living in a small town in Wisconsin better off then they were in 2020? If they are then the blogger would have a point.

I don't know the answer. Maybe the blogger is correct by accident, or maybe the people who voted for Trump haven't benefitted from the booming economy described by the author of the article. Finding out will require a lot more sophisticated analysis.

[Martin_B]

The word I mention once similarly spawned khakistocracy, for a military dictatorship, a word which doesn't seem to sufficiently taken the popular imagination to hang around for long.

Possibly because you can just use junta and people will know what you mean. There's also stratocracy, which is similar.

[IvanV]

...Are, for example, white men without a college degree living in a small town in Wisconsin better off then they were in 2020? If they are then the blogger would have a point....

It's a question I have asked. The handful of American economists I work with tell me that cost of living has gone up more than wages for people like you describe. Though the very poor are better off, as minimum wages and social support have tended to go up. That second point was a surprise to me, but there has been quite an increase in social transfers in the US in recent times. Still not up typical EU levels. But UK and US not so far apart any more, as they have been falling in UK.

It's quite common internationally for inflation to hit the poor harder, even in an economy with average incomes growing faster than price inflation. Because there has been a general tendency for higher skilled wages to go up more than lower skilled wages.