Indecision 2024

[Grumble]

It's amazing, Trump's speeches are getting even more unhinged.

This is what I hope loses him the election. He’s been polling well because he hasn’t been visible to the vast majority of non-MAGA Americans.

Now that he’s being seen more, it’ll put off most of those who aren’t already in his cult.

He can’t win an election by appealing to an ever narrowing base of loonies.

What about an expanding base of loonies?

[headshot]

It's amazing, Trump's speeches are getting even more unhinged.

This is what I hope loses him the election. He’s been polling well because he hasn’t been visible to the vast majority of non-MAGA Americans.

Now that he’s being seen more, it’ll put off most of those who aren’t already in his cult.

He can’t win an election by appealing to an ever narrowing base of loonies.

What about an expanding base of loonies?

Always a possibility.

[Stranger Mouse]

Trump can’t get a bond for his $464 million dollar civil fraud penalties according to his lawyers

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/18/trump-c ... s-say.html

[headshot]

Letitia James has got her calculator out and is totting up the value of Trump's properties.

Hopefully she'll go for the values Trump put down on his tax returns and seize more of them.

[bjn]

Trump can’t get a bond for his $464 million dollar civil fraud penalties according to his lawyers

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/18/trump-c ... s-say.html

He'll have to sell some real estate, but real estate like that isn't very liquid. So this looks like it will be very interesting, Trump Tower being repossessed would be a total hoot.

[dyqik]

Trump can’t get a bond for his $464 million dollar civil fraud penalties according to his lawyers

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/18/trump-c ... s-say.html

He'll have to sell some real estate, but real estate like that isn't very liquid. So this looks like it will be very interesting, Trump Tower being repossessed would be a total hoot.

If he wants to appeal, he has 30 days to sell it.

[IvanV]

Trump can’t get a bond for his $464 million dollar civil fraud penalties according to his lawyers

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/18/trump-c ... s-say.html

He'll have to sell some real estate, but real estate like that isn't very liquid. So this looks like it will be very interesting, Trump Tower being repossessed would be a total hoot.

If he wants to appeal, he has 30 days to sell it.

He had 30 days, but it runs out on 25 March.

It isn't news that collateral for bonds has to be in the form of relatively liquid assets, so Trump coming back to complain he can't raise a bond on illiquid assets, so that's unfair, is laughable. The point is, he has to be good for the money in a liquid way, and the test of that is his ability to raise liquid assets on the basis of his illiquid ones.

If Trump really is rich, and has extensive illiquid assets, then the option to him was to raise a loan on those assets. Which is actually hilarious, because the case this fine is imposed for is about exaggerating the value of assets to raise loans on them. Once bitten... But even without that entertaining little wrinkle, raising a $500m loan on the security of commercial property in just 30 days is a challenge unless you really are worth a great deal.

The super-rich do sometimes have difficulty getting their hands on cash. Just look at the entertainments the Barclay family currently have in Britain. The Sunday Times Rich List says they are worth over £6bn. But Sir Frederick is unable to touch more than a few thousand towards his ex-wife's £100m divorce settlement, and is in contempt of court, while continuing to live in a huge castle on a private Channel island.

[dyqik]

He'll have to sell some real estate, but real estate like that isn't very liquid. So this looks like it will be very interesting, Trump Tower being repossessed would be a total hoot.

If he wants to appeal, he has 30 days to sell it.

He had 30 days, but it runs out on 25 March.

It isn't news that collateral for bonds has to be in the form of relatively liquid assets, so Trump coming back to complain he can't raise a bond on illiquid assets, so that's unfair, is laughable. The point is, he has to be good for the money in a liquid way, and the test of that is his ability to raise liquid assets on the basis of his illiquid ones.

If Trump really is rich, and has extensive illiquid assets, then the option to him was to raise a loan on those assets. Which is actually hilarious, because the case this fine is imposed for is about exaggerating the value of assets to raise loans on them. Once bitten... But even without that entertaining little wrinkle, raising a $500m loan on the security of commercial property in just 30 days is a challenge unless you really are worth a great deal.

The super-rich do sometimes have difficulty getting their hands on cash. Just look at the entertainments the Barclay family currently have in Britain. The Sunday Times Rich List says they are worth over £6bn. But Sir Frederick is unable to touch more than a few thousand towards his ex-wife's £100m divorce settlement, and is in contempt of court, while continuing to live in a huge castle on a private Channel island.

Selling commercial real estate is a to whole lot easier than selling a remote* island though. You just have to discount it enough.

Unfortunately for Trump, a major punitive discount from his claimed values would only bring the price down to the market value...

[Grumble]

So, on the 26 March can NY start seizing assets?

[dyqik]

So, on the 26 March can NY start seizing assets?

Yep.

[IvanV]

...while continuing to live in a huge castle on a private Channel island.

Selling commercial real estate is a to whole lot easier than selling a remote* island though. You just have to discount it enough.

Unfortunately for Trump, a major punitive discount from his claimed values would only bring the price down to the market value...

I think selling private residential property is generally easier than selling commercial property. As private islands go, this one is actually pretty convenient. It's about the same distance from London or Paris as they are from each other. And once your private jet lands in Guernsey, it's probably just 10 minutes in a helicopter. With some curious feudal privileges packaged in, I would imagine considerable interest if it came on the market.

The due diligence on commercial assets to establish income streams, assets and liabilities is much more complicated. You say that at a sufficient discount, the sale is easy. But I don't think the due diligence on any Trump asset would be easy, even with an apparent large discount. We might suspect things would be so exaggerated, and maybe even dodgy, that even a 70% discount might not actually be any discount at all. And that, after all, is why he was in court in the first place.

[dyqik]

...while continuing to live in a huge castle on a private Channel island.

Selling commercial real estate is a to whole lot easier than selling a remote* island though. You just have to discount it enough.

Unfortunately for Trump, a major punitive discount from his claimed values would only bring the price down to the market value...

I think selling private residential property is generally easier than selling commercial property. As private islands go, this one is actually pretty convenient. It's about the same distance from London or Paris as they are from each other. And once your private jet lands in Guernsey, it's probably just 10 minutes in a helicopter. With some curious feudal privileges packaged in, I would imagine considerable interest if it came on the market.

A couple of Charlie Stross's laundry files books cover the feudal elements in his rather odd occult way.

The due diligence on commercial assets to establish income streams, assets and liabilities is much more complicated. You say that at a sufficient discount, the sale is easy. But I don't think the due diligence on any Trump asset would be easy, even with an apparent large discount. We might suspect things would be so exaggerated, and maybe even dodgy, that even a 70% discount might not actually be any discount at all. And that, after all, is why he was in court in the first place.

Yes, the karma here is fun.

But there's a pretty good idea of the value of the land in Manhattan, for example, even if the tower on top came down.

[Stranger Mouse]

It appears that Trump Tower at least until recently still had over $50 million mortgage on it. So does 40 Wall Street (although late last year Bloomberg reported the mortgage there was still $120 million and that may not have changed)

https://x.com/lawofruby/status/1770518970946183473?s=61

IMG_0703.jpeg (329.06 KiB) Viewed 732 times

[dyqik]

A particular issue Trump has with that is that each of these mortgages will almost certainly have terms that prevent any other mortgages being secured on the same property.

[IvanV]

A nice piece of Trumpian comedy has emerged in the last couple of days. His minions have thrown Alina Habba under a bus, in a lawyerly kind of way.

Alina Habba first drew herself to Trump's attention through her freelance interference in the case of Alice Bianco's accusation of sexual harassment by a manager at Trump's Bedminster Club. Initially that interference made the case go away for a small amount of money. But what she did was very naughty, and was eventually uncovered resulting in a bigger legal mess for the Bedminster Club. And the Bedminster Club, Trump's possession, have hung Habba out to dry. Bedminster has settled with Bianco for $82,500, but made explicit and crystal clear in doing so that the settlement does not cover anything Habba did. So Bianco can now sue Habba. And probably will.

At the end of January, Habba "stepped back" as Trump's lead lawyer on the E Jane Carroll case. But we were told that's because the case is now an appeal, and she isn't an appeals lawyer. She has been fairly quiet since, and no one has explicitly clarified if she is still working for him. But what just happened looks pretty much like a way of sending message to the world that she's sacked.

Some people get their just deserts. I wonder if she ever got paid?

[dyqik]

Looks like Republicans are going to shut down the government again, as they make the case for them being in control of government.

[dyqik]

Looks like Republicans are going to shut down the government again, as they make the case for them being in control of government.

Oh, and another Republican congressman has announced his retirement, effective the day after his seat could be filled in a special election, meaning that it's vacant until November.

That brings the GOP majority down to 1 from mid April.

Meanwhile Marjorie Taylor Greene has filed for a vote on vacating the speakership again.

[Grumble]

Looks like Republicans are going to shut down the government again, as they make the case for them being in control of government.

Oh, and another Republican congressman has announced his retirement, effective the day after his seat could be filled in a special election, meaning that it's vacant until November.

That brings the GOP majority down to 1 from mid April.

That can only be deliberate sabotage. The republicans really are tearing themselves apart. Is it registering with the American public what a shitshow this is?

[dyqik]

Looks like Republicans are going to shut down the government again, as they make the case for them being in control of government.

Oh, and another Republican congressman has announced his retirement, effective the day after his seat could be filled in a special election, meaning that it's vacant until November.

That brings the GOP majority down to 1 from mid April.

That can only be deliberate sabotage. The republicans really are tearing themselves apart. Is it registering with the American public what a shitshow this is?

I think it is deliberate, an attempt to collapse the MAGA wing of the party.

[IvanV]

Another curious show going on is the merger of Truth Social and DWAC (CNN).

Truth Social is Trump's social media operation. DWAC is a SPAC, ie, money raised from investors for the purpose of taking over another company. But this is a merger rather than an acquisition. So Trump is not being paid any cash in this transaction. He retains 58% of the merged company, which at the current share price is worth $3bn. But he is also prevented from selling any shares for 6 months. The investors in DWAC are largely individuals from the Trump faithful community, which is a bit different from the usual venture capitalist outfits that set up SPACs. Though doubtless there are a few speculators going in for the ride.

It is interesting how even the Trump faithful don't want Trump to take their money and running, and so have tied him up almost to the election, by which time one reason for him taking their money and running might have reduced.

If he can't sell the shares except with a delay, he could in principle use them as collateral to raise a loan. But although their present market value is $3bn, it seems that share analysts rather worry that their value in 6 months might be zero. Because Truth Social, unsurprisingly, doesn't make money and doesn't show much sign of doing so.

But the way DWAC is worth some money, despite having no fundamental value, isn't so unlike cryptocurrencies being worth some money, despite having no fundamental value. So maybe they will carry on being worth something for some time yet.

[Grumble]

Tick tock Donald

Or should I say TikTok?

[Woodchopper]

A New York appeals court has reduced the size of the bond payable by Donald Trump to delay enforcement of a $464mn fraud judgment against him and his businesses to just $175mn.

It was a win for the former US president who had claimed it would be “impossible” to obtain the full amount.

From the FT

[lpm]

Ah! Well. Nevertheless,

[Stranger Mouse]

Ah! Well. Nevertheless,

lol. I read this just before logging onto Twitter and seeing this which I didn’t realise was the inspiration https://x.com/lxeagle17/status/1772290675809059247?s=61

[Stranger Mouse]

First criminal trial starts in April 15th. Trump currently giving a conspiracy a go go press conference in which he is complaining about a two tier system. It is of course a two tier system because any other person would be in prison by now.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/ ... index.html