Scrutable

lpm wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 10:51 am

The message from the poll is that voters consider Biden too old to be an effective President.

Really worrying that this clear signal is being ignored.

And it's being ignored on spurious grounds - that it is not true and that Trump is worse. Both are irrelevant.

Agreed. Better to be pessimistic, then you won't be disappointed.

lpm wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 10:51 am

The message from the poll is that voters consider Biden too old to be an effective President.

Really worrying that this clear signal is being ignored.

And it's being ignored on spurious grounds - that it is not true and that Trump is worse. Both are irrelevant.

It's not being ignored. But there's not much that can be done about it that doesn't have a worse effect. Certainly it's too late to replace Biden on primary ballots.

Harris is starting to get more coverage in useful directions - calling for ceasefire in Gaza, for example

But the reason voters think this is that the press is doing a "her emails" thing about it. Hopefully they're doing it early enough that it'll be old news by the conventions.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:52 am

It's not being ignored. But there's not much that can be done about it that doesn't have a worse effect. Certainly it's too late to replace Biden on primary ballots.

There's something similar in the Tory party at the moment: a lot (possibly even most) Conservative MPs see Sunak as a bit of an electoral liability - he's just not very good at politics.. but nobody (well, maybe those who thought Liz Truss was on the right lines) thinks that replacing him would work - *all* the other options are far worse.

Trump gets *such* an easy ride from everyone who he deigns to allow to interview him, who allow him to talk utter rubbish (both for things like claims of "best economy ever", and meaningless drivel that they never stop him and say "what the f.ckety f.ck are you talking about?"). If Biden were to say a fraction of the word salad that Trump comes out with, he'd probably have been taken out by the 25th Amendment by now.

This coming election is not so much like a slow-motion car crash, or even train wreck.. I'm thinking more along the lines of two huuuge container vessels going head-on towards each other in the middle of the Suez canal, both captains figuring they're the best ones to be in charge and no, of course they shouldn't slow down. Everyone can see a coming disaster that'll affect the whole goddamn world, but nobody can work out WTF to do about it.

philbo wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 12:50 pm

Everyone can see a coming disaster that'll affect the whole goddamn world, but nobody can work out WTF to do about it.

Letitia James knows.
Fani Willis knows.
Jack Smith knows.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:52 am

Certainly it's too late to replace Biden on primary ballots.

But Biden can endorse someone else, and his delegates would be expected to vote for them, but technically they'd be able to vote for whoever they want, like the super delegates.

monkey wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:18 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:52 am

Certainly it's too late to replace Biden on primary ballots.

But Biden can endorse someone else, and his delegates would be expected to vote for them, but technically they'd be able to vote for whoever they want, like the super delegates.

If he was going to do that, it's best to do that after he's won enough delegates that there's no contest at the convention.

Of course, Biden has de facto endorsed a replacement for if he can't serve - Harris. That's what the Vice President candidate is.

philbo wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 12:50 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:52 am

It's not being ignored. But there's not much that can be done about it that doesn't have a worse effect. Certainly it's too late to replace Biden on primary ballots.

There's something similar in the Tory party at the moment: a lot (possibly even most) Conservative MPs see Sunak as a bit of an electoral liability - he's just not very good at politics.. but nobody (well, maybe those who thought Liz Truss was on the right lines) thinks that replacing him would work - *all* the other options are far worse.

The difference here is that Biden and his team have proven themselves reasonably good at politics. He beat Trump. Every recent election has Ds beating the polls by a substantial margin.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:34 pm

monkey wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:18 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:52 am

Certainly it's too late to replace Biden on primary ballots.

But Biden can endorse someone else, and his delegates would be expected to vote for them, but technically they'd be able to vote for whoever they want, like the super delegates.

If he was going to do that, it's best to do that after he's won enough delegates that there's no contest at the convention.

Of course, Biden has de facto endorsed a replacement for if he can't serve - Harris. That's what the Vice President candidate is.

Yes, that's what I expect would happen (if Biden chooses/has chosen to drop out). Wait until he's got enough candidates, then endorse Harris.

Many Dem supporters would see it as a stitch up, and Trump and the Republicans would encourage that, but I reckon nearly all of them would get over it when it comes down to the vote in November.

But I don't think he's going to drop out.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:37 pm

philbo wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 12:50 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:52 am

It's not being ignored. But there's not much that can be done about it that doesn't have a worse effect. Certainly it's too late to replace Biden on primary ballots.

There's something similar in the Tory party at the moment: a lot (possibly even most) Conservative MPs see Sunak as a bit of an electoral liability - he's just not very good at politics.. but nobody (well, maybe those who thought Liz Truss was on the right lines) thinks that replacing him would work - *all* the other options are far worse.

The difference here is that Biden and his team have proven themselves reasonably good at politics. He beat Trump. Every recent election has Ds beating the polls by a substantial margin.

He is, in fact, the ONLY person who’s beaten Trump.

monkey wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:51 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:34 pm

monkey wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:18 pm

But Biden can endorse someone else, and his delegates would be expected to vote for them, but technically they'd be able to vote for whoever they want, like the super delegates.

If he was going to do that, it's best to do that after he's won enough delegates that there's no contest at the convention.

Of course, Biden has de facto endorsed a replacement for if he can't serve - Harris. That's what the Vice President candidate is.

Yes, that's what I expect would happen (if Biden chooses/has chosen to drop out). Wait until he's got enough candidates, then endorse Harris.

Many Dem supporters would see it as a stitch up, and Trump and the Republicans would encourage that, but I reckon nearly all of them would get over it when it comes down to the vote in November.

But I don't think he's going to drop out.

Dems already voted for Harris to do this in 2020, so it's really not a big deal. Particularly if it's sold as "normal business of stable government", in contrast to chaos with Ed Milliband Donald Trump. Replacing a black woman who's basically incumbent with someone else in a convention stitch up would likely play a _lot_ worse.

headshot wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 2:11 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:37 pm

philbo wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 12:50 pm

There's something similar in the Tory party at the moment: a lot (possibly even most) Conservative MPs see Sunak as a bit of an electoral liability - he's just not very good at politics.. but nobody (well, maybe those who thought Liz Truss was on the right lines) thinks that replacing him would work - *all* the other options are far worse.

The difference here is that Biden and his team have proven themselves reasonably good at politics. He beat Trump. Every recent election has Ds beating the polls by a substantial margin.

He is, in fact, the ONLY person who’s beaten Trump.

Apart from Trump’s dad

Hahahaha omg

El Pollo Diablo wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 3:53 pm

Hahahaha omg

Are you laughing at the unanimity of the Supreme Court that Trump cannot be struck from the ballot except by Congress?

There are increasing insinuations - from partisan sources - that Trump may be displaying early signs of dementia, with the implication that is worse than the "mere" age-related cognitive decline Biden displays. The argument goes, Trump's mis-speaks are a particular kind of mis-speak called phonemic paraphasia, and that's a clear symptom of dementia.

Even Biden himself has been mentioning Trump's "senior moments", with the implication that Trump is worse Biden himself for this. Trump is sufficiently affected by this criticism to actually respond to it, and has dismissed these various mis-speaks, which include calling his wife Mercedes, as deliberate jokes.

It was previously suggested here that Biden himself didn't need to point out Trump's deficiencies, as Trump himself does in reverse, as that would be a bit undignified, and there were plenty of other people to do that for him. Trump can do without dignity, but not Biden.

Ultimately, as we agreed, what's true is typically of little impact. The first question is whether an issue even matters to the relevant voters, regardless of its truth. And if it matters, then voters will mostly decide for themselves what's true, and evidence is of limited power in that. Valid criticism is rarely of much relevance to Trump voters. But maybe if your hero is becoming demented, that matters. Of course, Reagan managed to complete his term with a degree of dignity despite the onset of dementia, because, at least by then, he was largely a figurehead rather than a decision-maker.

So, just an attempt at some noise. Or something that might have some impact?

Well if there is a chance that he might get in and then dementia gets so bad it can't be hidden in the usual levels of Trump-crazy, the issue of his potential running-mate/VP becomes rather important

headshot wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:03 pm

philbo wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 12:50 pm

Everyone can see a coming disaster that'll affect the whole goddamn world, but nobody can work out WTF to do about it.

Letitia James knows.
Fani Willis knows.
Jack Smith knows.

Yeah, and at the moment it looks like Trump is winning the battle to delay being found guilty of anything until after the election.

dyqik wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:37 pm

philbo wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 12:50 pm

dyqik wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:52 am

It's not being ignored. But there's not much that can be done about it that doesn't have a worse effect. Certainly it's too late to replace Biden on primary ballots.

There's something similar in the Tory party at the moment: a lot (possibly even most) Conservative MPs see Sunak as a bit of an electoral liability - he's just not very good at politics.. but nobody (well, maybe those who thought Liz Truss was on the right lines) thinks that replacing him would work - *all* the other options are far worse.

The difference here is that Biden and his team have proven themselves reasonably good at politics. He beat Trump. Every recent election has Ds beating the polls by a substantial margin.

I guess it took Comey talking about emails three days before an election for him to win by dint of an anachronistic electoral college.

I'm finding it hard to credit the level of support he (and the GOP) are polling at the moment: I do watch the occasional bit of politics on Fox, have even tried OAN - and even their best efforts to make the Republicans look marginally sane keep getting blown up by the utterly moronic imbeciles running (or currently in charge).. I realize that there has definitely been some footballification (the whole "support my team, no matter what"), but gobsmacked by just how complete it seems to be for such a large number of people. I can see they hark back to the halcyon days of covid-depressed gas prices and inflation without attempt to contextualize, trying so hard to make out that the president is controlling these things, therefore with Trump it'll go back to 10c a gallon etc. etc. ..but the swivel-eyed numbskulls they drag out as talking heads are so f.cking stupid

It really doesn't say much for roundabout half the US population.

Incidentally - many of the Trump-supporting types I have talked to in the past few months completely believe that he is polling above 90%, and therefore any defeat will definitely be due to vote-rigging.

philbo wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 05, 2024 6:06 pm

Yeah, and at the moment it looks like Trump is winning the battle to delay being found guilty of anything until after the election.

The thing I find staggering is that not only is he winning the battle to delay the upcoming trials, he also seems to be doing rather better than he should be to delay the consequences of the things he's already been found guilty of...

TopBadger wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 06, 2024 10:07 am

philbo wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 05, 2024 6:06 pm

Yeah, and at the moment it looks like Trump is winning the battle to delay being found guilty of anything until after the election.

The thing I find staggering is that not only is he winning the battle to delay the upcoming trials, he also seems to be doing rather better than he should be to delay the consequences of the things he's already been found guilty of...

Mainly because normal judges and other institutional representatives are bending over backwards to follow the law and make sure they are being seen to be fair. Meanwhile the Trumpers just do whatever the f.ck they like.

Nikki Haley’s dropped out, paving the way for a Biden/Trump rematch. (No surprise there)

How long before she endorses Trump then?

(I believe) she's on the record as saying she won't endorse the serial sex assaulter (tho' not quite in those words).

Lew Dolby wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 06, 2024 7:41 pm

(I believe) she's on the record as saying she won't endorse the serial sex assaulter (tho' not quite in those words).

lol. Sure.

Trump loses another legal case - has to pay Christopher Steele’s company some moolah

https://apnews.com/article/trump-steele ... 109b8a89f6

Trump request for stay on having to pay E Jean Carroll money denied

https://x.com/gtconway3d/status/1765862 ... 64999?s=61

Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 07, 2024 10:20 pm

Trump request for stay on having to pay E Jean Carroll money denied

https://x.com/gtconway3d/status/1765862 ... 64999?s=61

I’ll believe it when E Jean Carroll confirms she’s received the money.

Grumble wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 07, 2024 11:29 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: ↑

Thu Mar 07, 2024 10:20 pm

Trump request for stay on having to pay E Jean Carroll money denied

https://x.com/gtconway3d/status/1765862 ... 64999?s=61

I’ll believe it when E Jean Carroll confirms she’s received the money.

With any luck she gets to own a chunk of prime manhattan real estate in a few days, or the proceeds from its sale at the very least.