The Budget from Hell

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lpm
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The Budget from Hell

Post by lpm » Wed Nov 16, 2022 7:45 pm

...might have some good elements:

- end to fossil fuel subsidy for well off
- energy efficiency subsidies for lower council tax bands
- benefits up with inflation
- increase in minimum wage
- redesigned car/road taxes
- extra tax on very rich

The awful parts will be the impoverishment of public sector workers and the disaster of Austerity 2.0.
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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by plodder » Thu Nov 17, 2022 7:46 am

Be interesting to see what happens with infrastructure spending, it needs a fortune and could be used to stimulate growth.

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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by headshot » Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:15 am

I’d love them to just announce that the UK will rejoin the EU Customs Union and Single Market.

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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:39 am

plodder wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 7:46 am
Be interesting to see what happens with infrastructure spending, it needs a fortune and could be used to stimulate growth.
We both know the answer to that. Sadly. To these chumps, "Keynesian" just means people from north Bucks.
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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by IvanV » Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:46 am

headshot wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:15 am
I’d love them to just announce that the UK will rejoin the EU Customs Union and Single Market.
I don't think even a Labour chancellor would dare announce that. At least not without being elected on that explicit manifesto, and they wouldn't dare put it in their manifesto. Because the whole area is just too politically toxic.

And also because even that is a complex negotiation as to precisely what it means, and the devil will be in the detail. And also we don't want to repeat May's mistake (and also Truss's repeated mistakes when trade secretary) of committing yourself to something that destroy your negotiating position.

The only way that something like that, or in that direction, can politically feasibly be achieved in the relatively short term is salami slicing through incremental technical "improvements" to our arrangements with the EU. And since the very foundation of our Brexit "deal" requires us to be forever negotiating incremental improvements to our arrangements with the EU, there is considerable camouflage to achieve that. And given the negotiating issue, it is probably also the best way to achieve it in practice. The Swiss did very well at it for years. Until the the Swiss started behaving in bad faith, and EU finally noticed how much it had given up to them, and it then ground to a halt. But the Swiss still had what they had.

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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by TopBadger » Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:03 am

IvanV wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:46 am
The Swiss did very well at it for years. Until the the Swiss started behaving in bad faith, and EU finally noticed how much it had given up to them, and it then ground to a halt. But the Swiss still had what they had.
I dimly recall that EU representatives have spoken on this though to the extent they don't want to be in this position again. I.e. they learned their lessons with the Swiss and won't repeat the same mistakes with the Brits. So what worked for the Swiss may not work anywhere near as well for us.
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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:13 am

It's sort of fascinating from a political perspective. Part of me wonders if they think they'll get another respect boost a la 2010-12, but I'm fairly sure they won't, and probably they know that too. There's a recession on the way, pretty much every public sector area is on its knees, Brexit has f.cked us, there's a cost of living crisis and they're doing this. It won't play well with much if any of the country, and whilst austerity sucks and they need to invest more, mostly they're probably doing a lot of the right things. But it's not normally the Tory way to do what (they think) is right for the country, rather than what's right for them, at the expense of popularity. But they're already so low in the polls, maybe they think the only way back is to do that now, and not worry about the next election too much.
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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by IvanV » Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:17 am

TopBadger wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:03 am
IvanV wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:46 am
The Swiss did very well at it for years. Until the the Swiss started behaving in bad faith, and EU finally noticed how much it had given up to them, and it then ground to a halt. But the Swiss still had what they had.
I dimly recall that EU representatives have spoken on this though to the extent they don't want to be in this position again. I.e. they learned their lessons with the Swiss and won't repeat the same mistakes with the Brits. So what worked for the Swiss may not work anywhere near as well for us.
Your memory is good.

But it's still going to be more effective to negotiate like that than going in with a political imperative to get something specific, which the other side then knows they can get away with giving you something close to the best version of it for themselves. As happened with Brexit. As happened with trade "negotiations" with Australia etc.

And it's all very well for the EU to say, that's what happened and we don't want it to happen again. But you can't always get just what you want in negotiations. Given the mutual interest in coming to agreements, and the power the UK will have to shape what is up for negotiation at any given time, it may be hard to stop something similar happening again. If the UK finds some competent trade negotiators. Which is a big "if".

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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by lpm » Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:43 am

Excellent news:

- Tax on very high earners increased with threshold reduced to £125,000
- Dividend allowance cut
- Capital Gains Tax allowance cut significantly
- EVs will pay VED, BIK rates for EVs going up modestly
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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by lpm » Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:46 am

Ridiculous:

- windfall tax on renewable electricity generators
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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by lpm » Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:52 am

Contemptible:

- Cutting overseas aid
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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by lpm » Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:55 am

Interesting:

- Pension age to be "reviewed" next year
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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by Grumble » Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:58 am

lpm wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:55 am
Interesting:

- Pension age to be "reviewed" next year
I can hear the stampede towards the door from my most experienced colleagues
A bit churlish

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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:02 pm

Appalling:

- NHS England budget to increase by £3.3bn each year. Its current budget is £153bn per year. That's a 2% rise. It's pathetic.
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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by Bird on a Fire » Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:05 pm

Interesting to see the "trust us with the economy" "party of fiscal responsibility" having to row back their own policies because they're (accidentally?) still in power by the time we have to face the consequences of their decisions. (Even if they're doing it pathetically.)

Almost like they've been sh.t grifters ever since 2010 and have run out of road to pretend otherwise.
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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by plodder » Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:05 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:46 am
Ridiculous:

- windfall tax on renewable electricity generators
They’ve benefited from global price rises too. I’m on a 100% renewable tariff and it’s gone through the roof.

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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by lpm » Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:06 pm

Oh great, Sizewell C, incredibly expensive electricity generated when it's finally built in about 2085.
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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by lpm » Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:07 pm

Insulate Britain!

But not until 2025...
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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by lpm » Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:09 pm

HS2 to Manchester, Northern Powerhouse rail...
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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:12 pm

*core* Northern Powerhouse Rail. I.e. HS2 Phase 2c from Manchester to Huddersfield.
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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by lpm » Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:13 pm

Silicon Valley! It's all going to be wonderful!! Using Brexit freedoms!!!
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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by lpm » Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:23 pm

Good solid left-wing budget measures:

- Benefits and pensions up 10.1%.
- Minimum wage up 9.7%
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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by lpm » Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:36 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:07 pm
Insulate Britain!

But not until 2025...
I think this sums up the stupidity of this government.

On 24 February 2022 there should have been an emergency wartime action plan for insulation, getting as much as possible done by autumn 2022, with the entire Insulate Britain project to be completed by autumn 2025.

The savings in energy imports would have been worth a staggering amount of money.
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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by TopBadger » Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:44 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:23 pm
Good solid left-wing budget measures:

- Benefits and pensions up 10.1%.
- Minimum wage up 9.7%
Shame they couldn't do this in the years before inflation hit 11%... as it is families will still be worse off in relative terms.
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Re: The Budget from Hell

Post by lpm » Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:45 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:23 pm
Good solid left-wing budget measures:

- Benefits and pensions up 10.1%.
- Minimum wage up 9.7%
I'm not convinced the Tories have thought about the consequences of this.

When you push up benefits, you need to push up the minimum wage to retain the incentive to work. If you push up the minimum wage, companies need to push up the pay of their "minimum wage plus a bit" workers. Which pushes up the pay of the next tier up...

Which leaves public sector workers screwed. The Tories are basically guaranteeing themselves a couple of years of winter of discontent. The incentive to strike is now even higher, because the gap to the minimum wage shrinks, the gap from nurses pay to supermarket pay shrinks...

To have a hope of winning the next election, the Conservatives should have given all the lowest paid public sector workers the full 10.1% pay rise, maybe tapering down the pay rise as you go further up the pay ladder. Not only buying popularity but cutting out the pressure to strike.
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