2023 Predictions

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lpm
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2023 Predictions

Post by lpm » Sat Dec 31, 2022 4:28 pm

Here's my forecast for the year ahead.

1) UK politics. Nothing of note will happen.

2) UK economy. f.cked.

3) NHS. Even more f.cked.

4) US politics. Nothing of note will happen.

5) Ukraine. No significant change.

6) Verdict of history. 2023, the year when nothing happened.
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TopBadger
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Re: 2023 Predictions

Post by TopBadger » Sat Dec 31, 2022 4:58 pm

Biden dies... Harris becomes first female US president

Lewis Hamilton wins a record breaking 8th WDC
You can't polish a turd...
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html

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basementer
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Re: 2023 Predictions

Post by basementer » Sat Dec 31, 2022 5:35 pm

"Whatever hasn't happened will happen, and nobody will be safe from it." - attributed to J B S Haldane.
Money is just a substitute for luck anyway. - Tom Siddell

Herainestold
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Re: 2023 Predictions

Post by Herainestold » Sat Dec 31, 2022 7:31 pm

1) UK politics. Tory support will decline, Labour will in crease.
More Tory scandals.

2) UK economy. High inflation and unemployment.

3) NHS. Collapses under new China variant Covid wave.

4) US politics. De Santis eclipses Trump as GOP contender.

5)Ukraine. Russia advances as mobilizations and re armament continues.
Zelensky sues for peace, but it is too late.

6) Verdict of History. The old order continues to crumble.
Masking forever
Putin is a monster.
Russian socialism will rise again

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tenchboy
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Re: 2023 Predictions

Post by tenchboy » Sat Dec 31, 2022 7:43 pm

Same sh.t; different river.
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bolo
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Re: 2023 Predictions

Post by bolo » Sat Dec 31, 2022 8:16 pm

1) UK politics. Rishi Sunak resigns as prime minister and is replaced by someone I've never heard of. That person then resigns as prime minister and is replaced by someone else I've never heard of.

2) UK economy. Inflation continues, especially in energy prices. Strikes continue. Everyone agrees that it's a shambles but not their fault.

3) NHS. Mostly muddles through somehow.

4) US politics. Biden and Trump both die from heart attacks. President Harris is unable to accomplish much. McCarthy is elected speaker in January but does not last out the year. Republicans in the House are unable to agree on appropriations legislation for fiscal year 2024, so the government shuts down on October 1 and remains closed through the end of the year.

5) Ukraine. Ukraine gets new western arms, salami-slice style. Russia mobilizes another 500,000 badly armed and badly trained troops. Lots of people die on both sides. Ukraine regains some territory but not all of it. The war continues with no sign of a conclusion.

6) Verdict of History. Not guilty by reason of insanity.

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headshot
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Re: 2023 Predictions

Post by headshot » Sun Jan 01, 2023 1:09 am

Prediction: Herainestold gets instructed to f.ck off more than once each week.
Herainestold wrote:
Sat Dec 31, 2022 7:31 pm

5)Ukraine. Russia advances as mobilizations and re armament continues.
Zelensky sues for peace, but it is too late.
f.ck off.

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jimbob
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Re: 2023 Predictions

Post by jimbob » Sun Jan 01, 2023 2:20 pm

headshot wrote:
Sun Jan 01, 2023 1:09 am
Prediction: Herainestold gets instructed to f.ck off more than once each week.
Herainestold wrote:
Sat Dec 31, 2022 7:31 pm

5)Ukraine. Russia advances as mobilizations and re armament continues.
Zelensky sues for peace, but it is too late.
f.ck off.
Well said. Beau of the Fifth Column on this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smWaOz5r6CE&t=93s

ETA: check out the title: "Let's talk about a new Russian talking point about Ukraine...."
let's say the West stops providing
1:17
assistance
1:18
and Russia is capable of at that point
1:22
actually winning the conflict
1:25
okay congratulations they have now made
1:28
it to the hard part

1:31
something I have repeatedly said
1:33
throughout this you know 300 something
1:36
days of this three-day Excursion
1:39
is that Russia hasn't gotten to the hard
1:41
part yet

Stopping Western support will prolong the war.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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lpm
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Re: 2023 Predictions

Post by lpm » Sun Jan 01, 2023 4:06 pm

17^2*7
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IvanV
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Re: 2023 Predictions

Post by IvanV » Mon Jan 02, 2023 1:53 pm

My predictions:
1. Most of the key predictions for 2023 published by various people will prove to be wrong.
2. Most of the more important features of 2023 will fail to be mentioned in most sets of published predictions.

I don't like predicting things, because I don't like being wrong. My experience is that prediction is hard, especially when it concerns the future.* But I think you'd be right most years if you made predictions like the above. Certainly these would have been good predictions a year ago. Maybe I should call them meta-predictions rather than predictions, which is why they might have a better chance of being right.

*As an illustration of why I don't like making predictions, consider the problem of forecasting demand at an airport. There are people who claim to be expert airport demand forecasters, but it's a mugs' game.... These forecasters are repeatedly commissioned by airports, governments, people who want to buy airports, etc, to produce forecasts, generally formatted as a high, medium and low forecast. But repeatedly demand falls below the low forecast - George Bush's war on Tourism, the International FInancial Crisis, Covid, etc. And then it repeatedly goes above their high forecasts, when they publish new forecasts at the end of these episodes, and fail to predict how fast demand will recover and grow out of them. I do work on airports, but we try to make very sure that we are not responsible for any forecasts of demand made, because history shows that forecasters are repeatedly so wrong that that it makes a mockery of their high, medium and low forecasts. Even over periods like 5 years.

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Re: 2023 Predictions

Post by jimbob » Mon Jan 02, 2023 2:23 pm

IvanV wrote:
Mon Jan 02, 2023 1:53 pm
My predictions:
1. Most of the key predictions for 2023 published by various people will prove to be wrong.
2. Most of the more important features of 2023 will fail to be mentioned in most sets of published predictions.

I don't like predicting things, because I don't like being wrong. My experience is that prediction is hard, especially when it concerns the future.* But I think you'd be right most years if you made predictions like the above. Certainly these would have been good predictions a year ago. Maybe I should call them meta-predictions rather than predictions, which is why they might have a better chance of being right.

*As an illustration of why I don't like making predictions, consider the problem of forecasting demand at an airport. There are people who claim to be expert airport demand forecasters, but it's a mugs' game.... These forecasters are repeatedly commissioned by airports, governments, people who want to buy airports, etc, to produce forecasts, generally formatted as a high, medium and low forecast. But repeatedly demand falls below the low forecast - George Bush's war on Tourism, the International FInancial Crisis, Covid, etc. And then it repeatedly goes above their high forecasts, when they publish new forecasts at the end of these episodes, and fail to predict how fast demand will recover and grow out of them. I do work on airports, but we try to make very sure that we are not responsible for any forecasts of demand made, because history shows that forecasters are repeatedly so wrong that that it makes a mockery of their high, medium and low forecasts. Even over periods like 5 years.
Similarly for semiconductor demand.

At one time I managed to have one respected industry body's trends from 2006 and 2010 and I used it as context in a presentation at work to highlight how poor such forecasts are.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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lpm
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Re: 2023 Predictions

Post by lpm » Thu Jan 12, 2023 6:26 pm

OK, so I didn't have Biden investigated, indicted, convicted and jailed in 2023, but no prediction is perfect.

What a f.cking idiot.
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WFJ
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Re: 2023 Predictions

Post by WFJ » Thu Jan 12, 2023 6:45 pm

lpm wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 6:26 pm
OK, so I didn't have Biden investigated, indicted, convicted and jailed in 2023, but no prediction is perfect.

What a f.cking idiot.
It's just the Democrat's cunning planning to get Biden out and Harris in before the next election. The folders only contain old restaurant bills and dry cleaning receipts.

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Re: 2023 Predictions

Post by dyqik » Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:59 pm

WFJ wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 6:45 pm
lpm wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 6:26 pm
OK, so I didn't have Biden investigated, indicted, convicted and jailed in 2023, but no prediction is perfect.

What a f.cking idiot.
It's just the Democrat's cunning planning to get Biden out and Harris in before the next election. The folders only contain old restaurant bills and dry cleaning receipts.
My mind goes somewhere else at the mention of classified "dry cleaning receipts".

WFJ
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Re: 2023 Predictions

Post by WFJ » Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:21 pm

dyqik wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:59 pm
WFJ wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 6:45 pm
lpm wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 6:26 pm
OK, so I didn't have Biden investigated, indicted, convicted and jailed in 2023, but no prediction is perfect.

What a f.cking idiot.
It's just the Democrat's cunning planning to get Biden out and Harris in before the next election. The folders only contain old restaurant bills and dry cleaning receipts.
My mind goes somewhere else at the mention of classified "dry cleaning receipts".
House Republicans have just appointed Kenneth Starr to lead an investigation. Unfortunately for them he apparently died 3 months ago.

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Re: 2023 Predictions

Post by TopBadger » Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:29 pm

Thing is... whatever they do to Biden, they'll need to do worse to Trump...
You can't polish a turd...
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html

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EACLucifer
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Re: 2023 Predictions

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:40 pm

TopBadger wrote:
Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:29 pm
Thing is... whatever they do to Biden, they'll need to do worse to Trump...
If one has to have a scandal, there is no better point in the electoral cycle to have it than now.

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