Scrutable

lpm wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 17, 2024 3:16 pm

It's illegal to sell tobacco to children. That's where the burden lies, with the seller.

Young people accept hassle for something "cool", like they currently see vaping. They won't bother for uncool cigarettes. And older people will be less motivated to accept the hassle. The next step will be pharmacy sales only, queuing behind pensioners taking five minutes to get their prescriptions explained.

You keep making the assertion that smoking will be uncool, I see no evidence to support that.

Well you haven't looked very hard then.

30 years ago 25% of 15 year olds were regular cigarette smokers.

In 2021 it was 3%.

https://ash.org.uk/uploads/Youth-Smokin ... t-2024.pdf

Boustrophedon wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 17, 2024 2:33 pm

So the time will come when Joe is able to buy tobacco, but Bob, who is a year younger, won't, how's that supposed to work then?

The same way it does now if Joe is 18 and Bob is 17?

bolo wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 17, 2024 3:55 pm

Boustrophedon wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 17, 2024 2:33 pm

So the time will come when Joe is able to buy tobacco, but Bob, who is a year younger, won't, how's that supposed to work then?

The same way it does now if Joe is 18 and Bob is 17?

Lolz!

bolo wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 17, 2024 3:55 pm

Boustrophedon wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 17, 2024 2:33 pm

So the time will come when Joe is able to buy tobacco, but Bob, who is a year younger, won't, how's that supposed to work then?

The same way it does now if Joe is 18 and Bob is 17?

Yes - Joe goes and buys them for Bob.

But Joe might get a little tired of this when Joe is 45 and Bob is 44.

bolo wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 17, 2024 3:55 pm

Boustrophedon wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 17, 2024 2:33 pm

So the time will come when Joe is able to buy tobacco, but Bob, who is a year younger, won't, how's that supposed to work then?

The same way it does now if Joe is 18 and Bob is 17?

Exactly. If they were smoking, they will have experienced that throughout the time when they could smoke legally

lpm wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 17, 2024 3:01 pm

IvanV wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 17, 2024 2:48 pm

One of the ills of prohibition has been the actions of organised crime to serve the repressed demand.

It won't be repressed demand. It is an actual reduction in demand. Vapes are available and are "cool" compared to cigarettes, which young people typically see as uncool.

Like pipe smoking - demand wasn't repressed, it just disappeared because young people didn't want to be associated with the habits of the older generation.

There is an actual reduction in demand from competition from vapes and social attitudes, but there remains a residual demand. It is that residual demand that will be repressed by a ban.

You note in another post that 3% of 15-yr-olds smoke. But ONS data shows that 11% of 15-24 year olds smoke. Tends to imply the smoking rate is rather higher than 11% among the upper end of that age group. So the rate is still increasing as these people age, even though much or all of this generation has been around for this new vaping trend. 25-34 is the generation with the highest smoking rate, but the vaping trend may have been less relevant for them when they were in their teenage years.

A small point, but pipe smoking didn't entirely disappear because it was uncool. It was reinvented and sold as cool to some particular niche subcultures, though clearly much less popular than a generation or two previously. When I was a grad student, there was a pipe-smoking trend among young new agers - I used to hang out in a group with some new age types at that time, would you believe. (And as a consequence once got my car very thoroughly searched when arriving at a British port, travelling with them.) They were quite different-looking pipes and rather different types of tobacco from what previous generations were smoking. We had a couple of reunions as years have passed, and some of them were still like that, and some of them aren't. Another, probably rather smaller, sub-culture reaching for their pipes around then were "young fogeys".

Pipe smoking declined because pipes were out competed by cigarettes, which are more convenient and easier to use for a quick fix. Cigarettes were actively designed to give a quick nicotine fix and to be as addictive as possible to maximise sales.

I still fail to understand just how this legislation is supposed to work. We are repeatedly told by LPM that smoking is uncool or becoming uncool and thus there will be a real reduction in demand: If that is true then why do we need this legislation? And if it is not true then how will this legislation work any better than the current legislation that fails to prevent sales to the underaged?

Throughout my school career as a pupil and teacher, I did not see any reduction in illicit smoking 'behind the bike sheds'. Indeed one head of note had a secret office round the back of the kitchens where he indulged in his own baccy habit. His well advertised philosophy was to not catch the kids smoking, by being loud, obvious and non sneaky as he patrolled the well know smoking areas. So I do not see the uncool culture.

I hope it works but I am very wary of possible unintended consequences. The US 18th amendment, prohibition, simple fueled and financed the rise of the Mafia.

Surveys consistently show that cost and hassle factor are two clear reasons why people stop smoking. It might not seem exciting, but adding to the hassle of obtaining cigarettes will speed up the end of smoking.

I'm not convinced US prohibition has any relevance to the modern world in any of these discussions. Society is too different. I think debates on drugs or alcohol should stick with current issues, not continually refer back 100 years.

lpm wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 19, 2024 3:39 pm

Surveys consistently show that cost and hassle factor are two clear reasons why people stop smoking. It might not seem exciting, but adding to the hassle of obtaining cigarettes will speed up the end of smoking.

I'm not convinced US prohibition has any relevance to the modern world in any of these discussions. Society is too different. I think debates on drugs or alcohol should stick with current issues, not continually refer back 100 years.

Those who do not learn from the mistakes of the past...

Apart from anything else the Tory grandees that are supporting this bill or at least not openly opposing it, are content in the knowledge that they will be able to keep puffing on their Cuban cigars for as long as they live.