Russian Civil War

[bjn]

Prigozhin just called the whole thing a disaster, blamed it all on Shiogu, and effectively said they never should have done it. He was careful not to blame Putin though. Looks like they may be setting themselves up to be able to back out in some way and make Shiogu the scapegoat.

https://nitter.net/i/status/1672177488535977984

[bob sterman]

Prigozhin is now claiming Wagner have been attacked by Russian military and is vowing retaliation...

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-new ... 6fb2858f4b

[Grumble]

Prigozhin is now claiming Wagner have been attacked by Russian military and is vowing retaliation...

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-new ... 6fb2858f4b

Oh dear, how sad

[TopBadger]

Looks like they want to charge him with sedition too.

Is it still a civil war if it occurs in another country?

[Woodchopper]

Full message of Prigozhi "declaring war on the Russian Ministry of Defence

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/statu ... 1zY-PW4R9w

sh.t. Go out for a beer and a kebab and come home to find that there’s some kind of coup attempt.

[bjn]

Prigozhin is officially in the sh.t.

MOSCOW, June 23. /TASS/. Statements by the founder of PMC "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin became the basis for the initiation of criminal proceedings on the call for an armed rebellion. This was reported by the National Anti-Terrorist Committee. Prigozhin was called upon there to stop the illegal actions.

Also seeing of Wagner troops being shelled by Russian regulars.

https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/18102851

[Woodchopper]

Reports of road blocks in Moscow and armoured vehicles on the streets in Rostov.

[Martin Y]

sh.t. Go out for a beer and a kebab and come home to find that there’s some kind of coup attempt.

I don't know how you did it but ffs go and get another kebab. See what happens this time.

[lpm]

Prigozhin needs to go for it. For him it's either death or civil war.

[bjn]

Prigozhin needs to go for it. For him it's either death or civil war.

Hopefully civil war then death. Along with a few other butchers.

No idea how Prigozhin can keep supplied if he does launch an all out rebellion.

[lpm]

He clearly needs to get units of regular military to mutiny. Seems a reasonable chance he will? If so he can seize a couple of oblasts.

Him claiming to target Moscow must be a bluff, to distract attention from his real goal?

[Woodchopper]

Russian general records a video from a bunker and with a rifle on his knee.
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status ... 1zY-PW4R9w

Yes, everything fine here.

[dyqik]

He clearly needs to get units of regular military to mutiny. Seems a reasonable chance he will? If so he can seize a couple of oblasts.

Him claiming to target Moscow must be a bluff, to distract attention from his real goal?

If I was him, I'd be trying for (just south of) Rostov on Don and/or Volgograd.

It's close to where his troops are, and you can use Ukraine as one flank, Kazakhstan and the Caspian sea as the other, threaten the Black Sea Fleet, and use the Don as a barrier. There's a good chance the the Russian land forces in the area are more ready to mutiny, to avoid fighting in Ukraine.

[lpm]

He must have a better sense than any of us how ready troops are to mutiny.

Of course he might be deluding himself, same as Putin has, and will die swiftly as a result.

[Woodchopper]

Russia's MOD says Ukraine's armed forces have "taken advantage of Prigozhin's provocation to destabilize the situation" and are attacking Russia's invaders along the flanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/16 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

[bjn]

Reports of Wagner and Rosgvardia units clashing in the Rostov/Moscow road and Wagner defeating them.

[EACLucifer]

My back is so bad I had to have a lie down in the afternoon, and then eventually fell asleep. WTF have I just woken up to?

I'd seen the Prigozhin rant, but I'd assumed it was an attempt to position himself as Putin's successor.

[EACLucifer]

Alea Iacta Est, I guess.

I sincerely hope both sides lose.

[EACLucifer]

The Coup de Blyat is gathering speed. Tanks surround the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don.

The supply line for the Russian forces occupying the Donbas runs through Rostov-on-Don. At present, the MOD will need Wagner groups permission to resupply it's troops!

Though not directly related, a milestone of important symbolic significance also happened over the last couple of days. During a counterattack against the Russian attacks against Marinka - not part of the Ukrainian offensive just a small counterattack - Ukrainian troops advanced a short way into territory that was Russian held before the 24-02-2022 escalation.

[Woodchopper]

Alea Iacta Est, I guess.

I sincerely hope both sides lose.

Or alternatively, as Begin is said to have remarked, I wish both sides the greatest success. Let them fight for a long time.

[Woodchopper]

Thread with developments in Rostov by Rob Lee: https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1672 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

[Woodchopper]

Aric Toler thread: https://twitter.com/arictoler/status/16 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

[EACLucifer]

Alea Iacta Est, I guess.

I sincerely hope both sides lose.

Or alternatively, as Begin is said to have remarked, I wish both sides the greatest success. Let them fight for a long time.

Prigozhin's in Rostov, which appears to be under the control of his thugs, and Wagner/insurrectionist columns are heading north from there and, reportedly, being fired on by regime attack helicopters.

And we're only a day in.

This will be devastating to Russian morale on the frontlines and could quite easily disrupt their supply. Additionally a significant number of troops have turned round and marched into Russia - Prigozhin claims 25000 but he can't be trusted - who will then necessitate further troops to contain them. Remember Russia didn't have much military left outside of Ukraine. That's going to put a lot of pressure on Russian defences while the Ukrainian offensive puts pressure on the frontlines, and there's still multiple armoured/mechanised units not committed, ready to exploit any breakthrough.

[EACLucifer]

Rumours flying round that Prigozhin's demanding Gerasimov and Shoigu be dismissed or he'll blockade Rostov and march on Moscow. A significant majority of Russian supplies to their occupation forces in Ukraine go through Rostov.

Worth remembering that rumours are flying everywhere and about everything, though. I can't really keep up right now, and we must also remember we've got a social media manipulator, propagandist, troll-farm owning leader of a fascist militia marching against one of the most dishonest governments ever to disgrace this earth. Truth will be hard to come by for a while, folks.

[bjn]

Putin is apparently going to make an address at 9am local time. He’s been missing in action for a few days now, but this will be significant depending on which of his minions he backs.