Russian Civil War

[EACLucifer]

Crazy times.

Not sure of the wisdom of allowing Wagner to retreat to a country that doesn't like Putin and his Puppet, and apparently now has tactical nukes to be pilfered...

Putin might be handing Wagner more favorable conditions to rise against him...

That's the optimistic view. No-one else worried that it might all be a bit more orchestrated with the Kremlin than thought, leaving a 'deniable' independent force able to operate out of Belarus?

Suffered a lot of real reputational damage in the process, though, so probably not. Even if it was orchestrated - I don't think it was - it also matters whether or not your troops think mutiny is something that can be a) quite successful and b) dealt with by talks, not crushed, etc.

And if Putin wanted a force in Belarus, he'd send one there outright, there's several excuses available, and Belarus isn't really a very useful place for forces. With the element of surprise gone, there's no hope of repeating the attacks of February 2022, and those were a disaster anyway. The border is rather more fortified now, and much of the border is marshy anyway.

[lpm]

Power in a gangster dictatorship is exerted via carrot and stick. The carrot is money/privileges, the stick is brutal and lethal violence.

It's like a magnet and iron filings. The dictator or gang leader aligns everyone into the direction that reinforces him. Usually dictators emerge from chaos but establish a rigid order and every piece knows how to behave. They self sort north to south - and freeze in that pattern.

Putin is in serious trouble because the magnet has vanished. The north pole of carrot has gone because the economy is plundered and failing. The south pole of violent retribution is exposed as paper thin and there's no monopoly of violence. The iron filings can suddenly leave alignment and choose whichever direction is preferable to the individual.

Each faction has to arm itself, because rival factions are arming. Without a monopoly of violence a dictator cannot prevent conflict at the factional level. Players swiftly hire their own mercenary groups.

And crucially divisions of the army cease aligning with Putins' interests or the interests of other military leaders. No military leader wants his own section to be depleted by holding the ground in Ukraine or fighting for a Bakhmut. You now risk your force mutining against you if you push them too hard. Every iron filing, from private to general, no longer aligns to Putin's will but aligns to personal preference.

It takes time to realign from decades long status quo so Putin has a window. His support is widespread but shallow. So he has to deploy stick to the max. Deserters and mutineers must be shot, rogue leaders murdered, traitors in his high command forced into public confession.

Ukraine is no longer of any relevance to him, other than as an excuse to shoot traitors. Surely Putin must realise the cracking sounds he hears in the hull comes from the intense pressure within Ukraine? A pressure that will build in the coming weeks. You can't alleviate that pressure by pushing on harder, thinking victory will make you popular. The only course is to back away.

My expectation is that Putin will become Stalin, kill huge numbers and blame failure in Ukraine on traitors. Better to give away Crimea than give away the monopoly of violence. Of course, purgees should try to kill the purger before it's them up in front of the wall.

[jimbob]

Power in a gangster dictatorship is exerted via carrot and stick. The carrot is money/privileges, the stick is brutal and lethal violence.

It's like a magnet and iron filings. The dictator or gang leader aligns everyone into the direction that reinforces him. Usually dictators emerge from chaos but establish a rigid order and every piece knows how to behave. They self sort north to south - and freeze in that pattern.

Putin is in serious trouble because the magnet has vanished. The north pole of carrot has gone because the economy is plundered and failing. The south pole of violent retribution is exposed as paper thin and there's no monopoly of violence. The iron filings can suddenly leave alignment and choose whichever direction is preferable to the individual.

Each faction has to arm itself, because rival factions are arming. Without a monopoly of violence a dictator cannot prevent conflict at the factional level. Players swiftly hire their own mercenary groups.

And crucially divisions of the army cease aligning with Putins' interests or the interests of other military leaders. No military leader wants his own section to be depleted by holding the ground in Ukraine or fighting for a Bakhmut. You now risk your force mutining against you if you push them too hard. Every iron filing, from private to general, no longer aligns to Putin's will but aligns to personal preference.

It takes time to realign from decades long status quo so Putin has a window. His support is widespread but shallow. So he has to deploy stick to the max. Deserters and mutineers must be shot, rogue leaders murdered, traitors in his high command forced into public confession.

Ukraine is no longer of any relevance to him, other than as an excuse to shoot traitors. Surely Putin must realise the cracking sounds he hears in the hull comes from the intense pressure within Ukraine? A pressure that will build in the coming weeks. You can't alleviate that pressure by pushing on harder, thinking victory will make you popular. The only course is to back away.

My expectation is that Putin will become Stalin, kill huge numbers and blame failure in Ukraine on traitors. Better to give away Crimea than give away the monopoly of violence. Of course, purgees should try to kill the purger before it's them up in front of the wall.

I think it is too late to try to recapture his strongman mojo.

I think he lost it when a car bomb killed a nazi ally's Nazi daughter and he didn't do anything.

You used the phrase "monopoly of violence", I quoted Klytus in Flash Gordon

Two Albanian soldiers reportedly injured, one critically so, while arresting foreign intruders - reportedly Russian - trying to sneak into a weapons facility in Gramsh, Albania, per Albanian prosecutor's statement. Apparently the intruders attacked them with some sort of chemical agent.

Also Alexander Dugin's daughter has been killed in what looks like a car bomb in Moscow.

She was a Nazi like her father who seems to have been the target.

It doesn't look good for Putin's regime, as the obvious explanation is lieutenants jockeying for position as his grip slips.

And if he doesn't have a purge *soon* as a consequence, he will have lost it.

Unless it was arranged by him.

Basically Flash Gordon had it right when Klytus said

Set down your weapons. No one, but no one, dies in the palace without a Command from the Emperor.

[lpm]

Of all the strangeness, the strangest is that Wagner recruiting centres have reportedly opened up again today in various places across Russia. This is after posters were hastily torn down on Saturday.

The idea that existing Wagner professionals could be integrated into the regular army was always fantasy. Who would trust them? Who would give them orders? But letting them continue to build strength is a further step into lunacy.

Putin being finished, physically or mentally, and hiding in a bunker is an explanation that fits - except then why did Prigozhin take the "deal"? He could have just sat in Rostov parroting a few patriotic slogans.

[dyqik]

Of all the strangeness, the strangest is that Wagner recruiting centres have reportedly opened up again today in various places across Russia. This is after posters were hastily torn down on Saturday.

The idea that existing Wagner professionals could be integrated into the regular army was always fantasy. Who would trust them? Who would give them orders? But letting them continue to build strength is a further step into lunacy.

Putin being finished, physically or mentally, and hiding in a bunker is an explanation that fits - except then why did Prigozhin take the "deal"? He could have just sat in Rostov parroting a few patriotic slogans.

What does "taking the deal" actually look like for him? He can probably keep controlling he Wagner units from Belarus, after all.

[headshot]

Luka's promised him something...

[jimbob]

Luka's promised him something...

Both know that they are threatened by Putin

[lpm]

If Putin is powerless, Lukashenko and Shoigu are nothing.

Perhaps Prigozhin and the serious leaders of security forces all view this deal as non-existent. If they are treating it as a meaningless Putin piece of paper then it demonstrates Putin is a dead man. So Prigozhin carries on building power, probably not even in Belarus, while the security forces keep coming for him.

A parallel would be one of those Popes who instructed warring European clans to stop fighting each other and was simply ignored.

No state can suffer a mutiny without somebody being shot. It doesn't need to be the guilty parties. But somebody needs to be strung up. The fact that Putin is failing to demonstrate absolute power is what's so strange.

[jimbob]

If Putin is powerless, Lukashenko and Shoigu are nothing.

Perhaps Prigozhin and the serious leaders of security forces all view this deal as non-existent. If they are treating it as a meaningless Putin piece of paper then it demonstrates Putin is a dead man. So Prigozhin carries on building power, probably not even in Belarus, while the security forces keep coming for him.

A parallel would be one of those Popes who instructed warring European clans to stop fighting each other and was simply ignored.

No state can suffer a mutiny without somebody being shot. It doesn't need to be the guilty parties. But somebody needs to be strung up. The fact that Putin is failing to demonstrate absolute power is what's so strange.

EACLucifer's comment about warlords seems appropriate.

I
And at least some of the news of the mutiny got onto Russian TV, given Putin's TV address.

It makes little sense

[headshot]

Luka's promised him something...

Both know that they are threatened by Putin

Exactly. You scratch my back...etc.

[jimbob]

Luka's promised him something...

Both know that they are threatened by Putin

Exactly. You scratch my back...etc.

... And I will refrain from stabbing your back until I feel secure?

[lpm]

But Lukashenko is the weakest player on the board. It would be like teaming up with a pawn.

[Herainestold]

Luka's promised him something...

Maybe some of the nukes Putin's given him???

[Sciolus]

Maybe Putin has offered Prigozhin Lukashenko's job. Prigozhin gets to call himself President, an entire country to brutalise, and a base to grow further and bide his time. Putin buys time, gets rid of a loyal but weak ally, and by giving nukes to a mad dog his threats to Ukraine/NATO about escalation become much more credible. Still bad for Putin long term but about as much as he can hope for currently.

[TimW]

Luka's promised him something...

Maybe some of the nukes Putin's given him???

Putin hasn't given him any.

[Herainestold]

Luka's promised him something...

Maybe some of the nukes Putin's given him???

Putin hasn't given him any.

Perhaps not. Hasn't stopped Lukashenko from promising nukes to other countries.

During the interview, Lukashenko said, “no one minds Kazakhstan and other countries having the same close relations that we have with the Russian Federation.”

“It’s very simple,” he added. “Join the Union State of Belarus and Russia. That’s all: there will be nuclear weapons for everyone.”

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/luk ... 43567.html

Seems a bit dodgy though. You get the nukes on your soil, but Putin keeps the big red button.

[headshot]

F*ck off.

[Millennie Al]

Maybe Putin has offered Prigozhin Lukashenko's job. Prigozhin gets to call himself President, an entire country to brutalise, and a base to grow further and bide his time. Putin buys time, gets rid of a loyal but weak ally, and by giving nukes to a mad dog his threats to Ukraine/NATO about escalation become much more credible. Still bad for Putin long term but about as much as he can hope for currently.

I think there must be something like that going on. Otherwise it makes no sense. Putin comes out of it all very badly - he was challenged and couldn't do anything about it. Prigozhin may have figured that he could defeat Putin, but either might get killled himself, or that he didn't have enough support to take over and Putin's successor would likely be hostile. There have been rumours of Lukashenko being ill. Maybe he thinks he is not going to live very long and wants his son to take over, but Victor lacks enough support to keep power, so he thinks that Prigozhin could be useful. Or maybe he thinks that he has been relying on Putin to stay in power and Putin will no longer be there soon, so he needs someone else. Of course, Prigozhin may be planning on taking the presidency for himself, but maybe he too lacks enough support (he's Russian - not Belarusian), so hopes to build support for a while. All of them must think they're getting as good a deal as they can. If nukes are involved, I expect Prigozhin would want them to defend himself against Putin's successor - not to use against Ukraine, as he seems to have concluded that the war against Ukraine is not rational.

[Herainestold]

Putin needs Prigozhin out of the way while he absorbs Wagner's men and organization. Wagner is an important part of Russia foreign policy, esp. in Middle East and Africa. Once Putin has got what he wants, Prigozhin is history.

[jimbob]

I did see someone quoting Machiavelli about mercenaries.

If they are clever they will be a threat
If they are stupid they will be a liability

And saying that Russia managed to get one with both traits.

[Woodchopper]

Possibly another example of the US having monitored internal Russian communications.

A senior Russian general had advance knowledge of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plans to rebel against Russia’s military leadership, according to U.S. officials briefed on American intelligence on the matter, which has prompted questions about what support the mercenary leader had inside the top ranks.

The officials said they are trying to learn if Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the former top Russian commander in Ukraine, helped plan Mr. Prigozhin’s actions last weekend, which posed the most dramatic threat to President Vladimir V. Putin in his 23 years in power.

General Surovikin is a respected military leader who helped shore up defenses across the battle lines after Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year, analysts say. He was replaced as the top commander in January but retained influence in running war operations and remains popular among the troops.

American officials also said there are signs that other Russian generals may also have supported Mr. Prigozhin’s attempt to change the leadership of the Defense Ministry by force. Current and former U.S. officials said Mr. Prigozhin would not have launched his uprising unless he believed that others in positions of power would come to his aid.

[…]

On Tuesday, the Russian domestic intelligence agency said that it was dropping “armed mutiny” criminal charges against Mr. Prigozhin and members of his force. But if Mr. Putin finds evidence General Surovikin more directly helped Mr. Prigozhin, he will have little choice but to remove him from his command, officials and analysts say.

[…]

American officials have an interest in pushing out information that undermines the standing of General Surovikin, whom they view as more competent and more ruthless than other members of the command.

[…]

General Surovikin spoke out against the rebellion as it became public on Friday, in a video that urged Russian troops in Ukraine to maintain their positions and not join the uprising.

“I urge you to stop,” General Surovikin said in a message posted on Telegram. “The enemy is just waiting for the internal political situation to worsen in our country.”

But one former official called that message akin to “a hostage video.” General Surovikin’s body language suggested he was uncomfortable denouncing a former ally, one who shared his view of the Russian military leadership, the former official said.

There were other signs of divided loyalties in the top ranks. Another Russian general — Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev — made his own video appeal, calling any actions against the Russian state a “stab in the back of the country and president.” But hours later, he surfaced in another video, chatting with Mr. Prigozhin in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, where Wagner fighters seized military facilities.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/us/p ... llion.html

Worth noting that Surovikin is currently commander of aerospace forces. So perhaps responsible for the aircraft and pilots who were shot down.

[Martin Y]

It's an interesting question, how much various generals in the regular forces knew of Prigozhyn's intentions. But as the article says, it's so very much in America's interests to say they think there was foreknowledge that we can probably only note it as plausible but they would say that, wouldn't they?

[IvanV]

Prigozhyn

[pedant]There is more than one way of transliterating Russian to English. But the first and last vowels in Приго́жин are both и which is transliterated as i in every transliteration I've encountered. Or, another way of putting it, the last two letters ин are just the same as in Putin and Surovikin.

Wagner is interesting. A standard English transliteration of the Cyrillic might come out as Vagner or Vagnyer depending on how one does it. But I suppose we recognise it as a Cyrillic attempt to render the German Wagner, and so reverse that process. [/pendant]

[Martin Y]

Ta. I did wonder about the spelling but didn't check. l'll try to remember to use an i.

[Imrael]

A bit of a digression and potentially dodgy historical parallel, but there was an issue mid-late western Roman emperors had, where if army commanders were any good they were liable to build support for a coup. Gave the emperor the choice of campaigning with the army or trying to find commanders who were either loyal (tricky) or good-but-not-too-good.

If I have a point, its that in an imperial/warlord state power bases come in all shapes and sizes, but the armed forces are definitely one of the more potent ones.