Russian Civil War
Re: Russian Civil War
Kompromat has to be stuff nobody knows about. The entire Russian govt is organised crime.
There's nothing to expose that would worry Putin.
There's nothing to expose that would worry Putin.
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
Re: Russian Civil War
Maybe it's a "Brokeback Mountain" kinda thing? What's Russian for "I wish I knew how to quit you"
There... that's a mental image absolutely no one wanted.
You can't polish a turd...
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html
unless its Lion or Osterich poo... http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/mythbus ... -turd.html
Re: Russian Civil War
Indeed, I'm struggling to think of any leverage that couldn't be dealt with by the application of lethal force.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Russian Civil War
I was thinking more in terms of "exposure that means that Putin won't ever be rehabilitated in the West, and sanctions will stay on Russia forever", or "exposure that will turn China against Russia", rather than internal Kompromat.
Re: Russian Civil War
Re: Russian Civil War
Something like Putin ordering a nerve agent attack in Britain that murders a British citizen?
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
Re: Russian Civil War
Something like that, with undeniable evidence that leads to significant political pressure and outrage. e.g. attacks directly targeted at US citizens in the US (as opposed to attacks directed at Russian dissident immigrants to a country where the ruling party is deeply in bed with Russian oligarchs).lpm wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:16 pmSomething like Putin ordering a nerve agent attack in Britain that murders a British citizen?
Re: Russian Civil War
Another option would be revelations that effectively dismantle Putin's influence network in the West - e.g. that certain politicians are working for him directly.
Re: Russian Civil War
Again, I come back to this though
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Russian Civil War
We know that, but it's not currently leading to significant political pressure to investigate and dismantle Putin's influence networks. That can change with the right amount of outrage.jimbob wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:38 pmAgain, I come back to this though
Re: Russian Civil War
Perhaps not these days. And sufficiently in control of the media to laugh it off. But even now the Kremlin rubs people out who try to bring up evidence that the government are gangsters, if those people have sufficient credibility they are hard to ignore.
But back when he was trying to become president, and in early re-election campaigns, when his position was not so firmly cemented, it was apparently a sufficiently large liability to make it worthwhile quietly rubbing out quite a lot of people. Putin's rise was far from inevitable and hung on quite a few imponderables. We forget what a surprising and unknown person he was to become president when he was first elected.
As for poisoning "traitors" who ran away abroad, I suspect that's not a bad look with much of the local electorate.
Re: Russian Civil War
My point is that how could Prigozhin keep that as a plausible threat if he's dead. Also, any damage from such revelations or attacks has to be counted against any damage from letting Prigozhin get away with his defiance.
Similarly, if he has gone back to Russia, what leverage has Putin got on him that he's willing to go into Putin's direct control?
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Russian Civil War
Having evidence that will be released on your death is a pretty standard insurance policy.
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- Dorkwood
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Re: Russian Civil War
I was just about to say the same thing.
Re: Russian Civil War
But has this ever happened?
In reality? Not in movies or books?
Any events in history where revelations have been triggered by a murder insurance policy?
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
Re: Russian Civil War
Re: Russian Civil War
My suspicion is it's all bollocks, these insurance policies don't exist in real life.
I think Putin would laugh if you told him envelopes with Kompromat will be sent to every news organisation in 24 hours unless you are alive to stop it. He'd laugh, then gesture to a henchman who'd put a bullet in your head.
Prigozhin doesn't seem like a subtle kind of guy anyway.
Awarded gold star 4 November 2021
Re: Russian Civil War
It could also tell us that they are incredibly effective, so that they've never had to be triggered.lpm wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2023 4:46 pmMy suspicion is it's all bollocks, these insurance policies don't exist in real life.
I think Putin would laugh if you told him envelopes with Kompromat will be sent to every news organisation in 24 hours unless you are alive to stop it. He'd laugh, then gesture to a henchman who'd put a bullet in your head.
Prigozhin doesn't seem like a subtle kind of guy anyway.
Re: Russian Civil War
It's hard to imagine what sort of material would worry Putin.
Prigozhin dies, kompromat is released, Putin says it's fake, Russian media eagerly agrees it's fake and blames CIA or whoever, business as usual.
The only sort of thing that would matter would be a revelation that Putin somehow f.cked over all the other oligarchs. It's only compromising if it gets believed by people who might be able to do something about it.
Prigozhin dies, kompromat is released, Putin says it's fake, Russian media eagerly agrees it's fake and blames CIA or whoever, business as usual.
The only sort of thing that would matter would be a revelation that Putin somehow f.cked over all the other oligarchs. It's only compromising if it gets believed by people who might be able to do something about it.
Re: Russian Civil War
This is the reasoning that led me towards something affecting the west or China that leads to even heavier sanctions on Russia and the oligarchs.Martin Y wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2023 5:09 pmIt's hard to imagine what sort of material would worry Putin.
Prigozhin dies, kompromat is released, Putin says it's fake, Russian media eagerly agrees it's fake and blames CIA or whoever, business as usual.
The only sort of thing that would matter would be a revelation that Putin somehow f.cked over all the other oligarchs. It's only compromising if it gets believed by people who might be able to do something about it.
Re: Russian Civil War
Pretty much my reasoninglpm wrote: ↑Fri Jul 07, 2023 4:46 pmMy suspicion is it's all bollocks, these insurance policies don't exist in real life.
I think Putin would laugh if you told him envelopes with Kompromat will be sent to every news organisation in 24 hours unless you are alive to stop it. He'd laugh, then gesture to a henchman who'd put a bullet in your head.
Prigozhin doesn't seem like a subtle kind of guy anyway.
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Russian Civil War
Which he has done, as is well documented in Belton's book and is in general bleeding obvious. Oligarchs either have to pay court to Putin and supply him with lots of money, or else be sent to the lard mines/fall out of window.
Re: Russian Civil War
Exactly, that's factored in. And it's hard to think of any revelation other than military secrets or numbered bank details that would have much effect and those could dealt with by killing Prigozhin
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation
Re: Russian Civil War
A few other hypotheticals I can think of, that could be part of the insurance thing mentioned upthread: details of bank transfers to Western politicians or influential media persons, details of population scale attacks on other countries (at the extremely speculative fiction end of things, imagine if Putin was responsible for CoVID).jimbob wrote: ↑Sat Jul 08, 2023 2:03 pmExactly, that's factored in. And it's hard to think of any revelation other than military secrets or numbered bank details that would have much effect and those could dealt with by killing Prigozhin
The likely alternative is that Putin needs Wagner as an independent military force to prevent coups from the military, while using the military to prevent coups from Wagner.
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Re: Russian Civil War
Or it's a lovers' tiff and they've kissed and made up. It's as likely as any other theory.