Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

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IvanV
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by IvanV » Wed May 08, 2024 6:28 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed May 08, 2024 12:51 pm
IvanV wrote:
Tue May 07, 2024 9:54 pm
Hamas has apparently said it is accepting Israel's ceasefire offer just as offered, but Netanyahu is saying it is unacceptable. The difficulty is over what might happen next. Hamas wants to use the ceasefire to talk about an end to hostilities, but Israel will not contemplate an end to hostilities until Hamas is destroyed, whatever that means.
I assume that what Israel is looking to repeat is when in 1982 about 15000 PLO members and leadership were expelled from Lebanon after the country was invaded by Israel and Beirut besieged. I'm not sure where Hamas might go to though.
There were some rather different circumstances. They were on Lebanese territory and a large number of Lebanese were dying in the cross-fire. The PLO were fighting with Lebanese factions as well as the Israelis. That might explain why there was a broad interest in getting them out of Lebanon. A mainly Muslim multi-national arrived to enforce their removal, and Tunisia was willing to take them.

Currently they are on their own land, the people dying in the cross-fire are Palestinians, there is no one willing to take them, and no mainly Muslim multi-national force is willing to act as peacekeeper. Some might be happy to leave, but they are largely civilians, and probably Hamas would wish to impede not facilitate that.

When I think if some Israelis might have a historical comparison in mind, I wonder if they are thinking of the defeat of the Nazis, where everything became nice again after that. (Except, umm, in the large areas of Europe that Stalin annexed.) And the Germans did have some more successful prior experience of parliamentary government. And more widely, very few wars have ended like that.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Imrael » Thu May 09, 2024 8:12 am

IvanV wrote:
Wed May 08, 2024 6:28 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed May 08, 2024 12:51 pm
IvanV wrote:
Tue May 07, 2024 9:54 pm
Hamas has apparently said it is accepting Israel's ceasefire offer just as offered, but Netanyahu is saying it is unacceptable. The difficulty is over what might happen next. Hamas wants to use the ceasefire to talk about an end to hostilities, but Israel will not contemplate an end to hostilities until Hamas is destroyed, whatever that means.
I assume that what Israel is looking to repeat is when in 1982 about 15000 PLO members and leadership were expelled from Lebanon after the country was invaded by Israel and Beirut besieged. I'm not sure where Hamas might go to though.
There were some rather different circumstances. They were on Lebanese territory and a large number of Lebanese were dying in the cross-fire. The PLO were fighting with Lebanese factions as well as the Israelis. That might explain why there was a broad interest in getting them out of Lebanon. A mainly Muslim multi-national arrived to enforce their removal, and Tunisia was willing to take them.

Currently they are on their own land, the people dying in the cross-fire are Palestinians, there is no one willing to take them, and no mainly Muslim multi-national force is willing to act as peacekeeper. Some might be happy to leave, but they are largely civilians, and probably Hamas would wish to impede not facilitate that.

When I think if some Israelis might have a historical comparison in mind, I wonder if they are thinking of the defeat of the Nazis, where everything became nice again after that. (Except, umm, in the large areas of Europe that Stalin annexed.) And the Germans did have some more successful prior experience of parliamentary government. And more widely, very few wars have ended like that.
Lots of ethnic Germans displaced in the aftermath of the war. Mostly into East Germany, so perhaps less visible to western historians. Which of course might be exactly the precedent some more militant Israelis are thinking of.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Fishnut » Wed May 15, 2024 4:31 pm

It seems impossible given how awful things already are, but things are going to get an awful lot worse very quickly,
UN officials told the Guardian on Wednesday afternoon that their warehouses were now completely empty south of the river dividing the northern third of the Gaza from the south, with no likelihood of resupply as long as the main entry points into the territory remain closed after Israeli offensives launched in recent days.
An entirely man-made famine is underway. Food is waiting to be delivered, it's sitting there on the other side of the wall but Israel is refusing to let it in. This is genocide and it needs to end.
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Woodchopper
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Woodchopper » Tue May 21, 2024 7:45 am

The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for three senior Hamas leaders and two Israeli leaders for war crimes and crimes against humanity. This is a big deal.

For those that aren't legal nerds, the previous case was in the International Court of Justice which covers disputes between governments. The International Criminal court was specifically set up to investigate and prosecute war crimes and other gross violations of human rights. Merely by issuing arrest warrants the court has indicated that there is good evidence that the parties are guilty.

As often happens, the ICC asked for advice from an independent panel. They have published their report and a short article, I'll quote from the latter:
[...]

For months, we have engaged in an extensive process of review and analysis. We have carefully examined each of the applications for arrest warrants, as well as underlying material produced by the prosecution team in support of the applications. This has included witness statements, expert evidence, official communications, videos and photographs. In our legal report published today, we unanimously agree that the prosecutor’s work was rigorous, fair and grounded in the law and the facts. And we unanimously agree that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the suspects he identifies have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity within the jurisdiction of the ICC.

[...]

The Panel unanimously agrees with the prosecutor’s conclusion that there are reasonable grounds to believe that three of Hamas’s most senior leaders — Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif and Ismail Haniyeh — have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity for the killing of hundreds of civilians, the taking of at least 245 hostages and acts of sexual violence committed against Israeli hostages. The Panel also unanimously agrees that the evidence presented by the prosecutor provides reasonable grounds to believe that Netanyahu and Israel’s minister of defence Yoav Gallant have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity. This includes the war crime of intentionally using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare and the murder and persecution of Palestinians as crimes against humanity.

[...]

It is important to understand that the charges have nothing to do with the reasons for the conflict. The charges concern waging war in a manner that violates the long-established rules of international law that apply to armed groups and the armed forces in every state in the world. And, of course, the warrant applications announced today are just the first step. We hope that the prosecutor will continue to conduct focused investigations including in relation to the extensive harm suffered by civilians as a result of the bombing campaign in Gaza and evidence of sexual violence committed against Israelis on October 7. 

https://www.ft.com/content/aa2089c5-638 ... 68f3a788ce

The full report can be found here. https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/f ... rt-eng.pdf
Its quite brief and fairly clearly written.

The ICC tends to be the court that leaders do worry about. Of course they are all relatively safe if they can stay protected at home. But especially for Netanyahu and Gallant an arrest warrant will affect how they can interact with other countries. Netanyahu for example shouldn't be able to visit a state that is part of the ICC. This would last indefinitely (eg after he has stopped being prime minister).

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Gfamily » Tue May 21, 2024 8:40 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Tue May 21, 2024 7:45 am
The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for three senior Hamas leaders and two Israeli leaders for war crimes and crimes against humanity. This is a big deal.
Just to clarify; an application has been made by the chief ICC prosecutor for an arrest warrant to be issued.
This will go to three ICC judges to consider, and it is likely to be a couple of months before a decision is made.
Yes, a big deal, but the application has yet to be considered.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/article ... war-crimes
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Woodchopper » Tue May 21, 2024 8:48 am

Gfamily wrote:
Tue May 21, 2024 8:40 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Tue May 21, 2024 7:45 am
The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for three senior Hamas leaders and two Israeli leaders for war crimes and crimes against humanity. This is a big deal.
Just to clarify; an application has been made by the chief ICC prosecutor for an arrest warrant to be issued.
This will go to three ICC judges to consider, and it is likely to be a couple of months before a decision is made.
Yes, a big deal, but the application has yet to be considered.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/article ... war-crimes
Thanks, I seem to have been sidetracked by the panel report.

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Woodchopper
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Woodchopper » Wed May 22, 2024 5:48 am

A good summary:

Nuts & Bolts of Int’l Criminal Court Arrest Warrant Applications for Senior Israeli Officials and Hamas Leaders
https://www.justsecurity.org/95864/inte ... ael-hamas/

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Wed May 22, 2024 8:58 am

All the rhetoric about the ICC "comparing" Israel to Hamas is deliberate b.llsh.t, and it's disappointing that Biden has been so hasty to decry the ICC on that basis. The ICC may have made an error in putting the two warrant applications in the same document, which in turn has allowed Netanyahu, slimy slippery sh.t that he is, to claim comparison. But there is none. Yes, there is a big difference between a proscribed terrorist organisation and a democratic state. But Hamas have committed war crimes, and Israel have committed war crimes. Both deserve to be addressed, tested, tried and, if found guilty, punished.
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by discovolante » Wed May 22, 2024 9:47 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Wed May 22, 2024 8:58 am
All the rhetoric about the ICC "comparing" Israel to Hamas is deliberate b.llsh.t, and it's disappointing that Biden has been so hasty to decry the ICC on that basis. The ICC may have made an error in putting the two warrant applications in the same document, which in turn has allowed Netanyahu, slimy slippery sh.t that he is, to claim comparison. But there is none. Yes, there is a big difference between a proscribed terrorist organisation and a democratic state. But Hamas have committed war crimes, and Israel have committed war crimes. Both deserve to be addressed, tested, tried and, if found guilty, punished.
Absolutely.

Joshua Rozenberg has said that the panel have no way of testing the credibility of the evidence they have assessed (i.e. the evidence against Netanyahu may have come from Hamas). But the report was just in relation to whether warrants should be issued, not conviction. I'm not sure what alternatives are available in this situation and I don't think Joshua Rozenberg suggested any.
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Wed May 22, 2024 11:05 am

Tbf I think a lot of the evidence against Netanyahu comes from Netanyahu
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by discovolante » Wed May 22, 2024 11:37 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote:
Wed May 22, 2024 11:05 am
Tbf I think a lot of the evidence against Netanyahu comes from Netanyahu
Well, that too.
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Al Capone Junior » Sat May 25, 2024 12:52 am

Israel would do well to get rid of netan-f.cking-yahoo and get someone who is more interested in actually achieving peace. It's pretty obvious that the hard liner kill em all approach ain't working.

The Palestinians would also do better to get rid of Hamas, although Hamas is probably the inevitable result of the situation they have faced for a long time, which pretty much just keeps getting worse and worse. But still, Hamas hasn't really achieved much in terms of making it better or achieving peace.

I still remain on the side of the Palestinians, flawed as they may be in terms of taking actions that bring about peace.

But if what you're doing proves not to work, try something else. In both cases, ditching the hard liner approach seems like an obvious avenue they haven't tried yet.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Al Capone Junior » Sat May 25, 2024 12:55 am

Oh, and the USA perhaps not blindly supporting the netan-f.cking-yahoo hard liner kill em all plan might also help. Good f.cking luck with that.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Trinucleus » Sat May 25, 2024 10:19 am

Al Capone Junior wrote:
Sat May 25, 2024 12:52 am
Israel would do well to get rid of netan-f.cking-yahoo and get someone who is more interested in actually achieving peace. It's pretty obvious that the hard liner kill em all approach ain't working.

The Palestinians would also do better to get rid of Hamas, although Hamas is probably the inevitable result of the situation they have faced for a long time, which pretty much just keeps getting worse and worse. But still, Hamas hasn't really achieved much in terms of making it better or achieving peace.

I still remain on the side of the Palestinians, flawed as they may be in terms of taking actions that bring about peace.

But if what you're doing proves not to work, try something else. In both cases, ditching the hard liner approach seems like an obvious avenue they haven't tried yet.
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Rich Scopie » Sat Jun 08, 2024 8:00 pm

Israel has retrieved four hostages from Gaza.

This is a good thing.

What is not a good thing is that 210 Palestinians were killed in the rescue mission, and around 400 were wounded.

This isn't about taking sides, this is about people. Human beings. Your mum, your uncle, your kids. Two hundred and ten people killed, to retrieve four hostages. None of them needed to die.

It's not about scoring points, it's about human lives. All four of those "hostages" had a right to life, just as all two hundred and ten Palestinians had a right to life.

R.
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by IvanV » Sun Jun 09, 2024 12:55 pm

Rich Scopie wrote:
Sat Jun 08, 2024 8:00 pm
Israel has retrieved four hostages from Gaza.

This is a good thing.

What is not a good thing is that 210 Palestinians were killed in the rescue mission, and around 400 were wounded.

This isn't about taking sides, this is about people. Human beings. Your mum, your uncle, your kids. Two hundred and ten people killed, to retrieve four hostages. None of them needed to die.

It's not about scoring points, it's about human lives. All four of those "hostages" had a right to life, just as all two hundred and ten Palestinians had a right to life.

R.
The situation the hostages were rescued from, and actions of Hamas forces to try to prevent it succeeding, mean that such any practical military method of carrying out such a rescue mission will inevitably produce such large incidental casualties.

The question therefore is of the ethics of carrying out such a mission, as against alternative actions. When there are on-going discussions on a hostage exchange, to me the ethics stink, and make you wonder whether those discussions are happening in good faith.

The hostages are the only lever Hamas has. Negotiations succeed when both sides obtain a benefit relative to continuing the conflict. You feel this can't end while Netanyahu is in power, propped up by the far right, who demand a continuation of the conflict.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Rich Scopie » Sun Jun 09, 2024 1:08 pm

IvanV wrote:
Sun Jun 09, 2024 12:55 pm
Rich Scopie wrote:
Sat Jun 08, 2024 8:00 pm
Israel has retrieved four hostages from Gaza.

This is a good thing.

What is not a good thing is that 210 Palestinians were killed in the rescue mission, and around 400 were wounded.

This isn't about taking sides, this is about people. Human beings. Your mum, your uncle, your kids. Two hundred and ten people killed, to retrieve four hostages. None of them needed to die.

It's not about scoring points, it's about human lives. All four of those "hostages" had a right to life, just as all two hundred and ten Palestinians had a right to life.

R.
The situation the hostages were rescued from, and actions of Hamas forces to try to prevent it succeeding, mean that such any practical military method of carrying out such a rescue mission will inevitably produce such large incidental casualties.

The question therefore is of the ethics of carrying out such a mission, as against alternative actions. When there are on-going discussions on a hostage exchange, to me the ethics stink, and make you wonder whether those discussions are happening in good faith.

The hostages are the only lever Hamas has. Negotiations succeed when both sides obtain a benefit relative to continuing the conflict. You feel this can't end while Netanyahu is in power, propped up by the far right, who demand a continuation of the conflict.
It seems that other hostages were killed during the attack. How, as human beings, can we be doing this to each other?
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Fishnut » Mon Jun 10, 2024 7:47 pm

I've been incredibly lax in updating recently. I went away for a couple of weeks, during which time there was the bombing of the refugee camp in Rafah and the Israeli army's invasion of the city they told people to flee to as a 'safe zone' earlier in their retaliation. The TL:DR is that things are getting worse, which isn't surprising given that the world is basically looking on while Gaza is being razed to the ground and its people killed in incomprehensible numbers.

According to update 177, as of June 10 at least 37,123 Palestinians have been killed and 84,712 injured. These figures are undercounting as a result of bodies trapped under rubble and a breakdown in data collection as the genocide continues.

Over 330,000 tons of solid waste have accumulated in or near populated areas in the Gaza strip. In May, the BBC revealed that half of Gaza's water sites had been damaged or destroyed. UNRWA are warning that a cholera outbreak could be imminent. Back in March around 677,000 people were experiencing famine and UN agencies reported last week that the figure could reach over 1 million by the middle of July. According to the Guardian,
The term famine, when used by food and emergency aid professionals, has a strict technical definition, with three conditions that must be met in an area. The high threshold means that by the time famine has been declared, many people will already have died of hunger.
Incredibly, some hospitals are still running, though they are still struggling to get medical supplies and electricity. No hospitals in Rafah are open.

More than a thousand children have lost arms or legs. The New Yorker has an article I urge everyone to read.
In Gaza, [Ghassan Abu-Sittah, a London-based plastic-and-reconstructive surgeon who specializes in pediatric trauma] was performing as many as six amputations a day. “Sometimes you have no other medical option,” he explained. “The Israelis had surrounded the blood bank, so we couldn’t do transfusions. If a limb was bleeding profusely, we had to amputate.” The dearth of basic medical supplies, owing to blockades, also contributed to the number of amputations. Without the ability to irrigate a wound immediately in an operating room, infection and gangrene often set in.
...
Israeli forces destroyed Gaza’s only facility for manufacturing prosthetics and rehabilitation, the Hamad hospital, which was inaugurated in 2019 and funded by Qatar. The leading manufacturer of child prosthetics, the German company Ottobock, is working to supply the necessary components to children up to the age of sixteen, with donors in place to fund the project through its foundation. Procuring prosthetics, however, is only the first step. “Child amputees need medical care every six months as they grow,” Abu-Sittah said. Because bone grows faster than soft tissue and severed nerves often reattach painfully to skin, child amputees require ongoing surgical interventions. In his experience, each limb requires eight to twelve more surgeries.
As of April, more than 80% of schools have been destroyed or damaged. In the first 100 days, all 12 universities were bombed and wholly or partly destroyed. Libraries have been intentionally destroyed.

The trauma that these people are being subjected to is unimaginable. Even if Israel stopped its bombing today, hundreds, probably thousands, would still likely die as a result of injury and/or starvation. We are watching a genocide take place before our eyes and no-one in power is doing anything to stop it. The UK and US needs to stop sending Israel bombs. The Israeli government has lost any sense of rationality or proportionality. They seem determined to destroy Gaza and make it uninhabitable for anyone who manage to survive. They don't even seem to care about the lives of Israelis, given that it seems that almost as many hostages died in the latest attempt to free them as were rescued. And let's not forget it shot three who had managed to escape back in December.

I don't know how this ends. But so far no end seems in sight. Just more death, destruction, trauma and an entire population likely radicalised.
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by IvanV » Tue Jun 11, 2024 4:11 pm

So apparently, according to Blinken (BBC), if the US-proposed ceasefire doesn't happen, that's Hamas' fault. Because Blinken says the Israeli government has agreed to it.

It is not clear that is entirely true. Netanyahu hasn't quite said he has agreed to it, because, as things stand, it would probably be the end of his premiership if he did.
Mr Netanyahu has acknowledged his war cabinet has authorised the plan but has not voiced unequivocally support for it. Far right ultranationalist members of his cabinet have threatened to quit his coalition and trigger its collapse if the deal goes forward, seeing it as surrender to Hamas.
And, if I can understand why Hamas might not think it was a fair deal. So I'm not sure you can call it someone's fault if they refuse to agree to something that they would perceive as unreasonable.
The proposal involves an initial six week ceasefire with Hamas releasing some hostages in exchange for Israel releasing an undefined number of Palestinian prisoners.

A second phase would see the remaining hostages released by Hamas and a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza as part of a “permanent” ceasefire, but the latter would still be subject to negotiations.
To their credit, the BBC journalist sees that's not very attractive to Hamas. Because without such clear guarantees, Israel takes what it gets from the first stage, and then carries on. Indeed, that is what they have clearly said they would do.
Meanwhile, Hamas is likely to seek clear guarantees that the proposal would lead to the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces and a permanent end to the war.
In fact, I would think that was the bare minimum Hamas would want to give up its only negotiating lever. There's that old saw about giving nothing to terrorists. But, as happened in Northern Ireland, etc, these atrocities will be repeated until something of a fairer long term settlement is made.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Fishnut » Tue Jun 11, 2024 5:48 pm

108 arms export licences have been issued by the UK to Israel between 7 October 2023 and 31 May 2024. That's an average of one every couple of days.
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Jul 19, 2024 3:09 pm

The International Court of Justice has just issued an advisory opinion that:
- the State of Israel’s continued presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory is unlawful;
- the State of Israel is under an obligation to bring to an end its unlawful presence in the Occupied
Palestinian Territory as rapidly as possible;
- the State of Israel is under an obligation to cease immediately all new settlement activities, and
to evacuate all settlers from the Occupied Palestinian Territory;
- the State of Israel has the obligation to make reparation for the damage caused to all the natural
or legal persons concerned in the Occupied Palestinian Territory;
- all States are under an obligation not to recognize as legal the situation arising from the unlawful
presence of the State of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory and not to render aid or
assistance in maintaining the situation created by the continued presence of the State of Israel in
the Occupied Palestinian Territory;
- international organizations, including the United Nations, are under an obligation not to
recognize as legal the situation arising from the unlawful presence of the State of Israel in the
Occupied Palestinian Territory; and
- the United Nations, and especially the General Assembly, which requested the opinion, and the
Security Council, should consider the precise modalities and further action required to bring to
an end as rapidly as p
https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/f ... -00-en.pdf

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by IvanV » Mon Jul 22, 2024 4:50 pm

I don't see any way out of conflict without substantial return of land that has been occupied. But I'm not convinced judgments like this advance that cause.

There is an interesting dissenting opinion of J Sebutinde, who doesn't seem to have any particular partisan axe to grind, and a number of other judges were apparently of similar view.

Ultimately it doesn't really take us anywhere. Those who disagree with it will reject it as partisan. And as a practical matter, resolution can only come through negotiation.

I read something the other day that suggested that neither Hamas nor the present rulers of Israel have any interest in an end to conflict. Hamas's support increases during times of conflict, and so does support for the Israeli right. Which unfortunately presents the conditions for things only to get worse.

As for giving up very much of the beyond the pre-1967 border that Israel has taken and increasingly takes, I suspect, unfortunately, that Israel's rulers would have to be put in an extremely hard place to consider agreeing to anything like that.

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