Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Dec 04, 2023 6:44 pm

Fishnut wrote:
Sun Dec 03, 2023 3:21 pm
The ceasefire ended on 1 December. It seems that both Israel and Hamas are blaming each other for violating the terms and causing its end.
It's trivially easy to find out who breached the ceasefire, so I can only presume you didn't because it was Hamas, both by not releasing further hostages as per the deal, and by firing rockets at Israeli civilians.

The next hostages due to be released were young adult women. Up to this point they'd only released elderly women and children. Given the renewed focus on the appalling and systematic sexual violence committed by Hamas, I think it's sadly clear why they did not release those women.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Dec 06, 2023 7:31 pm

UN Secretary General wrote: I've just invoked Art.99 of the UN Charter - for the 1st time in my tenure as Secretary-General.

Facing a severe risk of collapse of the humanitarian system in Gaza, I urge the Council to help avert a humanitarian catastrophe & appeal for a humanitarian ceasefire to be declared.
https://x.com/antonioguterres/status/17 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

Article 99 allows the Secretary General to put a subject on the agenda of the Security Council.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Dec 06, 2023 7:39 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 7:31 pm
UN Secretary General wrote: I've just invoked Art.99 of the UN Charter - for the 1st time in my tenure as Secretary-General.

Facing a severe risk of collapse of the humanitarian system in Gaza, I urge the Council to help avert a humanitarian catastrophe & appeal for a humanitarian ceasefire to be declared.
https://x.com/antonioguterres/status/17 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

Article 99 allows the Secretary General to put a subject on the agenda of the Security Council.
This being the same secretary general that thought this was the worst violence in his tenure, despite it covering significant parts of the Yemeni and Syrian civil wars, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Tigray war, all with significantly worse death tolls, none of which saw any such response from that thick c.nt Guterres. The UN is, and has for most of its existence been, a sick joke with a preposterous obsession with Israel, though at least I suppose Guterres, despite apparently not knowing or caring about many of the worst conflicts in his time of office, isn't actually a nazi war criminal, unlike a certain previous UN secretary general who oversaw grandstanding nonsense singling out Israel.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by WFJ » Wed Dec 06, 2023 7:55 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 7:39 pm
The UN is, and has for most of its existence been, a sick joke with a preposterous obsession with Israel.
Perhaps it's a result of guilt. Considering one of its first major actions was a partition plan that took land from the majority of the population and gifted it to a colonial settler group, to appease religious terrorist bigots, rather than pushing for the creation of a secular democratic state in Palestine.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:15 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 7:39 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 7:31 pm
UN Secretary General wrote: I've just invoked Art.99 of the UN Charter - for the 1st time in my tenure as Secretary-General.

Facing a severe risk of collapse of the humanitarian system in Gaza, I urge the Council to help avert a humanitarian catastrophe & appeal for a humanitarian ceasefire to be declared.
https://x.com/antonioguterres/status/17 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

Article 99 allows the Secretary General to put a subject on the agenda of the Security Council.
This being the same secretary general that thought this was the worst violence in his tenure, despite it covering significant parts of the Yemeni and Syrian civil wars, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Tigray war, all with significantly worse death tolls, none of which saw any such response from that thick c.nt Guterres.
Did he say that?

All I can find that uses the phrase “worst violence” is this from July:

“Israel’s airstrikes and ground operations in a crowded refugee camp were the worst violence in the West Bank in many years,” said António Guterres, referring to the two-day-long military assault in Jenin, which began on Monday morning, involving the use of airstrikes and missiles fired from drones.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/07/1138427

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by EACLucifer » Wed Dec 06, 2023 11:40 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:15 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 7:39 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 7:31 pm

https://x.com/antonioguterres/status/17 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

Article 99 allows the Secretary General to put a subject on the agenda of the Security Council.
This being the same secretary general that thought this was the worst violence in his tenure, despite it covering significant parts of the Yemeni and Syrian civil wars, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Tigray war, all with significantly worse death tolls, none of which saw any such response from that thick c.nt Guterres.
Did he say that?

All I can find that uses the phrase “worst violence” is this from July:

“Israel’s airstrikes and ground operations in a crowded refugee camp were the worst violence in the West Bank in many years,” said António Guterres, referring to the two-day-long military assault in Jenin, which began on Monday morning, involving the use of airstrikes and missiles fired from drones.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/07/1138427
Sorry, yes, I misremembered the precise quote. He claimed it was "unparalleled and unprecedented" during his term, so my criticism still applies, it's just the specific wording rather than the general meaning that was off.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Dec 07, 2023 5:52 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 11:40 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:15 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 7:39 pm


This being the same secretary general that thought this was the worst violence in his tenure, despite it covering significant parts of the Yemeni and Syrian civil wars, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Tigray war, all with significantly worse death tolls, none of which saw any such response from that thick c.nt Guterres.
Did he say that?

All I can find that uses the phrase “worst violence” is this from July:

“Israel’s airstrikes and ground operations in a crowded refugee camp were the worst violence in the West Bank in many years,” said António Guterres, referring to the two-day-long military assault in Jenin, which began on Monday morning, involving the use of airstrikes and missiles fired from drones.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/07/1138427
Sorry, yes, I misremembered the precise quote. He claimed it was "unparalleled and unprecedented" during his term, so my criticism still applies, it's just the specific wording rather than the general meaning that was off.
With the use of those words he was referring to the deaths of children:

Now, I have been very clear in denouncing the violations of international humanitarian law and the violations of protection of civilians and I have not a mandate to classify the acts that are entities that are recommended. But I think that more important than a discussion on names is the facts and let’s see the facts. As you know, we report every year on children killed in armed conflict. I have already presented seven reports. In the seven reports, the highest number of children killed in one year by one actor was by the Taliban in 2017, 2018. The second by the Syrian Government and its allies in again before 2020 and again it was around 700. We have had Russia last year 350. We had Saudi Arabia. If you remember the uproar in relation to Yemen. In one year, the maximum 300. Now without entering into discussing the accuracy of the numbers that were published by the de facto authorities in Gaza, what is clear is that we have had in a few weeks thousands of children killed. So this is what matters. We are witnessing a killing of civilians that is unparalleled and unprecedented in any conflict since I am Secretary-General.
https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/pre ... ort-launch

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Woodchopper » Thu Dec 07, 2023 6:10 am

On the number of deaths:

An unnamed IDF official cited by AP says that at least 15,000 Palestinians in Gaza have died since the outbreak of the war on October 7. The army says it estimates more than 5,000 of the Gaza deaths to be Hamas terrorists.

[…]

The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry said earlier today that around 15,900 people have been killed so far in the Strip.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ ... are-hamas/

The later number may not include Hamas fighters.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by discovolante » Thu Dec 07, 2023 9:09 am

I've moved a couple of posts to The Pit. EPD posted in the Hamas attack on Gaza thread about conduct in that thread (viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4011&start=250#p155049) and the same principles apply in this thread. I'm not intending to go through each of the posts that have been moved to discuss which parts are acceptable and which aren't, but as a bare minimum please avoid personal abuse, it doesn't achieve anything.
To defy the laws of tradition is a crusade only of the brave.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Dec 07, 2023 2:35 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2023 5:52 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 11:40 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:15 pm


Did he say that?

All I can find that uses the phrase “worst violence” is this from July:



https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/07/1138427
Sorry, yes, I misremembered the precise quote. He claimed it was "unparalleled and unprecedented" during his term, so my criticism still applies, it's just the specific wording rather than the general meaning that was off.
With the use of those words he was referring to the deaths of children:

Now, I have been very clear in denouncing the violations of international humanitarian law and the violations of protection of civilians and I have not a mandate to classify the acts that are entities that are recommended. But I think that more important than a discussion on names is the facts and let’s see the facts. As you know, we report every year on children killed in armed conflict. I have already presented seven reports. In the seven reports, the highest number of children killed in one year by one actor was by the Taliban in 2017, 2018. The second by the Syrian Government and its allies in again before 2020 and again it was around 700. We have had Russia last year 350. We had Saudi Arabia. If you remember the uproar in relation to Yemen. In one year, the maximum 300. Now without entering into discussing the accuracy of the numbers that were published by the de facto authorities in Gaza, what is clear is that we have had in a few weeks thousands of children killed. So this is what matters. We are witnessing a killing of civilians that is unparalleled and unprecedented in any conflict since I am Secretary-General.
https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/pre ... ort-launch
He's still completely and utterly incorrect.

ETA: I realise a lot of people, including the UN secretary general, have no idea about the scope of many modern conflicts, but Yemen's civil war has killed ten times as many people by violence as is claimed by the Hamas government as casualties, most of them after Guterres's term began, with more than twice as many as that killed by starvation and disease largely as a consequence of the Houthis tactics of deliberate starvation. The Syrian civil war is yet more lethal still, while the Tigray war's deaths include fifty to a hundred thousand civilians killed by direct violence, and again many more by the consequent famine.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by monkey » Thu Dec 07, 2023 6:02 pm

Absolute deaths are absolutely important, but the war in Syria started in 2011, the war in Yemen started in 2014, the war in Tigray lasted 2 years, and the war in Gaza started 2 months ago. Surely the very different lengths of time of these wars is also important here? The size of the affected population too? It doesn't seem like a simple comparison to make to me, even before we get into the uncertainties in the reported deaths.

That said, even if other wars are considered to be worse, the war in Gaza is still f.cking horrible for the civilians involved (as are all wars).

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by EACLucifer » Thu Dec 07, 2023 9:38 pm

monkey wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2023 6:02 pm
Absolute deaths are absolutely important, but the war in Syria started in 2011, the war in Yemen started in 2014, the war in Tigray lasted 2 years, and the war in Gaza started 2 months ago. Surely the very different lengths of time of these wars is also important here? The size of the affected population too? It doesn't seem like a simple comparison to make to me, even before we get into the uncertainties in the reported deaths.

That said, even if other wars are considered to be worse, the war in Gaza is still f.cking horrible for the civilians involved (as are all wars).
You do understand a war that lasted two years and killed more than twenty times the civilians of a war that last two months is still more intense, right?

We can also compare the timescale with the siege of Mariupol, particularly the phase before the retreat to Azovstal, as by that point the main civilian death toll had almost certainly already occured. It's a similar period of time, but estimates of civilian deaths range from twenty five thousand to a hundred and twenty five thousand, with quite a bit of evidence from mass grave sites pointing away from the lower estimates, and that was just one city in an entire nation facing invasion.

It's not that the situation in Gaza is not extremely concerning, but Guterres is every bit as wrong and disproportionately obsessed with Israel as the UN usually is, as is his failure to use Article 99 in any other situation.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by monkey » Fri Dec 08, 2023 1:38 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2023 9:38 pm
monkey wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2023 6:02 pm
Absolute deaths are absolutely important, but the war in Syria started in 2011, the war in Yemen started in 2014, the war in Tigray lasted 2 years, and the war in Gaza started 2 months ago. Surely the very different lengths of time of these wars is also important here? The size of the affected population too? It doesn't seem like a simple comparison to make to me, even before we get into the uncertainties in the reported deaths.

That said, even if other wars are considered to be worse, the war in Gaza is still f.cking horrible for the civilians involved (as are all wars).
You do understand a war that lasted two years and killed more than twenty times the civilians of a war that last two months is still more intense, right?

We can also compare the timescale with the siege of Mariupol, particularly the phase before the retreat to Azovstal, as by that point the main civilian death toll had almost certainly already occured. It's a similar period of time, but estimates of civilian deaths range from twenty five thousand to a hundred and twenty five thousand, with quite a bit of evidence from mass grave sites pointing away from the lower estimates, and that was just one city in an entire nation facing invasion.

It's not that the situation in Gaza is not extremely concerning, but Guterres is every bit as wrong and disproportionately obsessed with Israel as the UN usually is, as is his failure to use Article 99 in any other situation.
My point was only that it's a complicated comparison to make. If I had more time I might've done more to question the utility of ranking conflicts in such ways*.


*Briefly, because a Bad Thing doesn't get better because of the existence of something worse.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Woodchopper » Fri Dec 08, 2023 9:06 am

monkey wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2023 6:02 pm
Absolute deaths are absolutely important, but the war in Syria started in 2011, the war in Yemen started in 2014, the war in Tigray lasted 2 years, and the war in Gaza started 2 months ago. Surely the very different lengths of time of these wars is also important here? The size of the affected population too? It doesn't seem like a simple comparison to make to me, even before we get into the uncertainties in the reported deaths.

That said, even if other wars are considered to be worse, the war in Gaza is still f.cking horrible for the civilians involved (as are all wars).
You make a good point.

If we compare the numbers cited by the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) we are looking at 'at least 5300' children killed in Gaza by 1 December. The toll after another week will be higher.

EACL mentions Yemen, and in comparison UNICEF cites 3,774 killed between 2015 and 2022.

For Syria, UNICEF cites 13 000 children killed or injured since the war started about a decade ago. A comon rule of thumb is that about three times more are injured in battle than killed, if so there would also be about 3000 deaths.

For Ukraine, UNICEF cites 'at least 535 children' who have been killed as of August 2023.

From these numbers it looks like the Gaza War is profoundly different in terms of deaths of children. If that is the case there is an obvious reason why.

Normally, civilians and especially children flee the fighting to a place of safety. They cross borders and become refuges or they move within a country and are internally displaced. Children make up a tiny proportion of the deaths in Yemen, Syria or Ukraine because they were removed from the battlefields.

That hasn't been possible in Gaza. As has been stated over and over again, Israel and Egypt have prevented civilians from leaving Gaza, and there have been air strikes in all parts of the territory. No civilians have been able to flee the battlefields. The high death toll among children is a direct consequence.

The UN Secretary General is correct, based upon the available data, the death toll of children in Gaza is unparalleled and unprecedented compared to other ongoing or recent wars. They are being killed at a far more intense level than in other conflicts. The death toll over little more than two months is higher than other wars after years of fighting. This is because the fate of civilians is profoundly different.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by EACLucifer » Fri Dec 08, 2023 6:21 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2023 9:06 am
monkey wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2023 6:02 pm
Absolute deaths are absolutely important, but the war in Syria started in 2011, the war in Yemen started in 2014, the war in Tigray lasted 2 years, and the war in Gaza started 2 months ago. Surely the very different lengths of time of these wars is also important here? The size of the affected population too? It doesn't seem like a simple comparison to make to me, even before we get into the uncertainties in the reported deaths.

That said, even if other wars are considered to be worse, the war in Gaza is still f.cking horrible for the civilians involved (as are all wars).
You make a good point.

If we compare the numbers cited by the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) we are looking at 'at least 5300' children killed in Gaza by 1 December. The toll after another week will be higher.

EACL mentions Yemen, and in comparison UNICEF cites 3,774 killed between 2015 and 2022.

For Syria, UNICEF cites 13 000 children killed or injured since the war started about a decade ago. A comon rule of thumb is that about three times more are injured in battle than killed, if so there would also be about 3000 deaths.

For Ukraine, UNICEF cites 'at least 535 children' who have been killed as of August 2023.

From these numbers it looks like the Gaza War is profoundly different in terms of deaths of children. If that is the case there is an obvious reason why.

Normally, civilians and especially children flee the fighting to a place of safety. They cross borders and become refuges or they move within a country and are internally displaced. Children make up a tiny proportion of the deaths in Yemen, Syria or Ukraine because they were removed from the battlefields.

That hasn't been possible in Gaza. As has been stated over and over again, Israel and Egypt have prevented civilians from leaving Gaza, and there have been air strikes in all parts of the territory. No civilians have been able to flee the battlefields. The high death toll among children is a direct consequence.

The UN Secretary General is correct, based upon the available data, the death toll of children in Gaza is unparalleled and unprecedented compared to other ongoing or recent wars. They are being killed at a far more intense level than in other conflicts. The death toll over little more than two months is higher than other wars after years of fighting. This is because the fate of civilians is profoundly different.
This is a problem that's been floating around for a while, though, and that's people who don't have the wits to look at the sources of data using horrifically incomplete data and thinking it means something.

The UN count in Ukraine is simply wrong. That's all there is to it. They counted fewer dead in the first month than came from the three small suburbs of Bucha, Irpin and Borodianka alone. That's partly because of stringent criteria for identifying the dead - that aren't applied to Gaza - and a complete inability to operate in areas cut off by Russia, like Mariupol. Now of course if one actually looks at the data set, one sees that there is a caveat acknowledging that it's an undercount, but that doesn't make it into claims like yours. The Ukraine numbers are in fact so badly off they should be unpublished as they are the source of so many misleading claims.

I would be very very surprised if the UNICEF numbers for Syria and Yemen do not have similar issues, as the proportion of children is impossibly low given the overall civilian death tolls of those conflicts both run well into the hundreds of thousands. We know that Assad's forces used gas, barrel bombs and artillery to target cities where civilians were trapped and directly targetted civilians, UNICEF's numbers are simply implausible. Other sources, I'd add, give a minimum figure of 25000 children killed in Syria.

I also see you completely ignored Tigray, but then that's a pretty common thing for people to do, sadly.

Guterres is wrong, and you are clutching at bad data to defend him.

As for why there have been strikes in all areas, that's because that's where Hamas is operating and that is where Hamas is firing rockets from. They could cease fire. They broke the last ceasefire, and the pre-October the 7th ceasefire. They could and should agree to a ceasefire and talks, but their leadership simply do not care about civilian casualties among their own population - if they did, they would not fire rockets that kill far more Gazans than they do the Israeli civilians that are their targets.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Woodchopper » Sat Dec 09, 2023 11:44 am

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2023 6:21 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2023 9:06 am
monkey wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2023 6:02 pm
Absolute deaths are absolutely important, but the war in Syria started in 2011, the war in Yemen started in 2014, the war in Tigray lasted 2 years, and the war in Gaza started 2 months ago. Surely the very different lengths of time of these wars is also important here? The size of the affected population too? It doesn't seem like a simple comparison to make to me, even before we get into the uncertainties in the reported deaths.

That said, even if other wars are considered to be worse, the war in Gaza is still f.cking horrible for the civilians involved (as are all wars).
You make a good point.

If we compare the numbers cited by the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) we are looking at 'at least 5300' children killed in Gaza by 1 December. The toll after another week will be higher.

EACL mentions Yemen, and in comparison UNICEF cites 3,774 killed between 2015 and 2022.

For Syria, UNICEF cites 13 000 children killed or injured since the war started about a decade ago. A comon rule of thumb is that about three times more are injured in battle than killed, if so there would also be about 3000 deaths.

For Ukraine, UNICEF cites 'at least 535 children' who have been killed as of August 2023.

From these numbers it looks like the Gaza War is profoundly different in terms of deaths of children. If that is the case there is an obvious reason why.

Normally, civilians and especially children flee the fighting to a place of safety. They cross borders and become refuges or they move within a country and are internally displaced. Children make up a tiny proportion of the deaths in Yemen, Syria or Ukraine because they were removed from the battlefields.

That hasn't been possible in Gaza. As has been stated over and over again, Israel and Egypt have prevented civilians from leaving Gaza, and there have been air strikes in all parts of the territory. No civilians have been able to flee the battlefields. The high death toll among children is a direct consequence.

The UN Secretary General is correct, based upon the available data, the death toll of children in Gaza is unparalleled and unprecedented compared to other ongoing or recent wars. They are being killed at a far more intense level than in other conflicts. The death toll over little more than two months is higher than other wars after years of fighting. This is because the fate of civilians is profoundly different.
This is a problem that's been floating around for a while, though, and that's people who don't have the wits to look at the sources of data using horrifically incomplete data and thinking it means something.

The UN count in Ukraine is simply wrong. That's all there is to it. They counted fewer dead in the first month than came from the three small suburbs of Bucha, Irpin and Borodianka alone. That's partly because of stringent criteria for identifying the dead - that aren't applied to Gaza - and a complete inability to operate in areas cut off by Russia, like Mariupol. Now of course if one actually looks at the data set, one sees that there is a caveat acknowledging that it's an undercount, but that doesn't make it into claims like yours. The Ukraine numbers are in fact so badly off they should be unpublished as they are the source of so many misleading claims.
Of course its easy to verify the number of deaths of children in Ukraine. It took me a few seconds with Google:
The Prosecutor General's office reported on Oct. 2 that 504 Ukrainian children have been officially documented as killed since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion last year.
https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutor- ... 0-injured/

That's very similar to the number cited by UNICEF. The most obvious explanation being that they are both describing the same reality.

This the latest round in this discussion in which you've made completely erroneous assertions while accusing others of not having the wits to look up the sources of data.

EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2023 6:21 pm
I would be very very surprised if the UNICEF numbers for Syria and Yemen do not have similar issues, as the proportion of children is impossibly low given the overall civilian death tolls of those conflicts both run well into the hundreds of thousands. We know that Assad's forces used gas, barrel bombs and artillery to target cities where civilians were trapped and directly targetted civilians, UNICEF's numbers are simply implausible. Other sources, I'd add, give a minimum figure of 25000 children killed in Syria.
Could you link to the original source of that statistic?

In any case, the majority of deaths of children in Syria would have occurred before the Secretary General's term started. So in terms of your your accusation they are irrelevant.
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2023 6:21 pm

I also see you completely ignored Tigray, but then that's a pretty common thing for people to do, sadly.
You are welcome to provide some statistics yourself.
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2023 6:21 pm

Guterres is wrong, and you are clutching at bad data to defend him.
Perhaps you could provide some reliable sources to back up that accusation.
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2023 6:21 pm
As for why there have been strikes in all areas, that's because that's where Hamas is operating and that is where Hamas is firing rockets from. They could cease fire. They broke the last ceasefire, and the pre-October the 7th ceasefire. They could and should agree to a ceasefire and talks, but their leadership simply do not care about civilian casualties among their own population - if they did, they would not fire rockets that kill far more Gazans than they do the Israeli civilians that are their targets.
No debate about the depths that the Hamas leadership have sunk. But the rest of the world is supposed to be better than that.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Fishnut » Sat Dec 09, 2023 7:02 pm

An analysis by Haaretz has found that, conservatively, 61% of fatalities have been civilians,
...far higher than the proportion of 33-42 percent for the aerial attacks [by Israel on Gaza] in the past.

From an international comparative perspective, too, this is a high figure, considering that in wars fought during the 20th century, up until the 1990s, about half of those killed were civilians – and this includes wars in which the most important component was ground combat, not relatively precise strikes from the air. In light of such a high proportion of noncombatants among those killed in Swords of Iron, we may suspect that the principle of discrimination was not upheld or perhaps that the principle of proportionality was subject to a highly flexible interpretation. [my emphasis]
The analysis goes on to ask why this operation has so many more civilian casualties than previous ones,
The first explanation is that the intensiveness of the attacks came at the expense of the precise planning in which the chief of staff takes pride. Other explanations, less naïve, were put forward in an inquiry conducted by Yuval Avraham for +972 Magazine, published on November 30, based on accounts of knowledgeable individuals within the military. That investigation shows that the army lowered the level of (already limited) caution that characterized it in the past. For example, it attacked such "power targets" as residential towers or public buildings, at the price of inflicting large-scale casualties on the civilians within. The same holds for the increase in strikes at private residences, intended to assassinate a single resident suspected of being a terrorist. Likewise, Avraham maintains, the army greatly increased the rate of collateral damage permitted; according to the IDF Spokesperson, speaking on October 10, "the emphasis is on damage and not on accuracy." Thus, the rules of proportionality were interpreted more flexibly, so that the bar of caution against harming innocent persons was lowered. The use of artificial intelligence to generate targets at a rapid pace reduced even further the level of caution that in the past characterized human judiciousness. [my emphasis]
The Financial Times has also examined the Israeli offensive,
Citing estimates of damage to urban areas, military analysts say the destruction of northern Gaza in less than seven weeks has approached that caused by the years-long carpet-bombing of German cities during the second world war.
...
Whole neighbourhoods have been levelled. By December 4, more than 60 per cent of the buildings in north Gaza had been severely damaged, according to analysis of satellite radar data by Corey Scher of CUNY Graduate Center and Jamon Van Den Hoek of Oregon State University.

That rises to as much as 70 per cent of buildings in some districts. Across the whole of Gaza, between 82,600 and 105,300 buildings have been left in ruins, according to the estimate, which counts buildings where at least half the structure was damaged.

By contrast, over the space of two years, between 1943 and 1945, the Allied bombing of 61 major German cities razed an estimated 50 per cent of their urban areas, according to [Robert Pape, a US military historian and author of Bombing to Win, a landmark survey of 20th century bombing campaigns.].
...
“The sheer pace of the campaign does raise questions about the Israeli rules of engagement, its targeting process, and the levels of civilian casualties it is prepared to accept,” said Jeremy Binnie, Middle East defence specialist at Janes, a defence and open-source intelligence firm in London.
...
“By any measure, Gaza is already a high civilian punishment campaign,” said military historian Pape. “It will go down in history as one of the heaviest ever undertaken with conventional weapons.” [my emphasis]
Meanwhile, the UN has warned that half the population of Gaza is starving,
Carl Skau, deputy director of the UN World Food Programme, said only a fraction of supplies needed have been able to enter the Strip - and nine out of 10 people cannot eat everyday.

Conditions in Gaza have made deliveries "almost impossible", Mr Skau said. [my emphasis]
CNN has pieced together the timeline that led to the deaths of at least four infants who doctors had been unable to evacuate from Al-Naser Hospital.
The video inside the hospital was filmed on November 27 by Mohamed Baalousha, a Gaza reporter for UAE-based news outlet Al Mashhad. He shared an unblurred version with CNN, which shows the remains of at least four infants.

Three of them appear to be still connected to hospital machines. The bodies of the babies appear to be darkening and disintegrating from decay, with little more than skeletons left in some of the beds. Flies and maggots are visibly crawling across the skin of one child.
...
The director of Gaza’s hospitals at the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health, Dr. Mohammad Zaqout, told CNN that people in the hospital were forced to leave by the IDF.

We were forced to leave them behind to die because we didn’t have a safe medical evacuation… we informed them that these children were on beds and couldn’t be evacuated. We held other children in our arms while being forced to evacuate,” Zaqout said.

The IDF has strongly denied responsibility for the deaths of the children in Al-Nasr ICU. “Given that the IDF did not operate inside the Al-Nasr hospital, these allegations are not only false but also a perverse exploitation of innocent lives, used as tools to spread dangerous misinformation,” the IDF said in a statement to CNN.

Asked repeatedly by CNN why it hadn’t provided ambulances for the evacuation, as the COGAT officer [Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, a unit in the Israeli Ministry of Defense that engages in coordinating civilian issues between the Government of Israel, the Israel Defense Forces] had promised in the recorded conversation with the hospital official, and if they were aware of the presence of children left in the ICU, as Zaqout alleged, the IDF did not directly respond. [my emphasis]
It's not just people who are being harmed, but places of cultural and historical importance.

According to the BBC,
In the video, verified by the BBC, much of the Great Omari Mosque appears to be reduced to rubble, with only its minaret still intact.
The Washington Post reports that,
Both the Gaza Municipal Library and the Rashad al-Shawa Cultural Center — which hosted a meeting between President Bill Clinton and Yasser Arafat 25 years ago — have been shelled into rubble...

Museums, archaeological heritage sites and university campuses in Gaza have all been damaged and destroyed in Israeli attacks during the current offensive, according to human rights and cultural heritage groups. Israel has said some of the sites, including the Islamic University of Gaza, were used by Hamas operatives.
Birzeit University has reported that the central archive has been destroyed.
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Fishnut » Sat Dec 09, 2023 7:09 pm

OCHA flash update 63 (8/12/23)

As always, paragraphs starting with a "-" are direct quotes. Where this is absent I am summarising information from the update.

Hostilities and casualties
Residential buildings continue to be attacked.
- According to the MoH in Gaza, between 7 October and 8 December afternoon, at least 17,487 Palestinians were killed in Gaza, about 70 per cent of whom are said to be women and children, and over 46,000 are reportedly injured.

- Many more people are missing, presumably under the rubble, waiting rescue or recovery. On 8 December, the head of the Palestinian Civil Defence in northern Gaza stated in the media that, due to the lack fuel, rescuers have been left with just one operational vehicle.

Displacement
- Since 3 December, tens of thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs) have arrived in Rafah, the majority coming from the adjacent Khan Younis governorate, following evacuation orders issued by Israeli forces and ongoing bombardments and fighting. For many IDPs, this is the second or third displacement they have experienced since 7 October. In Rafah, they are subject to extreme overcrowded conditions with no empty space to shelter, not even in the streets and or other open areas. Thousands of people wait for hours in large crowds around aid distribution centres, in desperate need of food, water, shelter, health, and protection.

- The Secretary-General also noted that, “the people of Gaza are being told to move like human pinballs – ricocheting between ever-smaller slivers of the south, without any of the basics for survival. But nowhere in Gaza is safe.”

- On 1 December, the Israeli military issued a detailed online map, where the Gaza Strip is divided into hundreds of small areas. Reportedly, the map is intended to facilitate orders to evacuate people to specific areas ahead of their targeting. Since then, various areas, encompassing nearly 30 per cent of the Gaza Strip, have been marked for evacuation. The ability of residents to access this information is impaired by the recurrent interruptions in telecommunications and the lack of electricity to charge electronic devices.

- As of 6 December, according to UNRWA, almost 1.9 million people in Gaza, or nearly 85 per cent of the population, were estimated to be internally displaced. Nearly 1.2 million of these IDPs were registered in 151 UNRWA facilities across Gaza, of whom about one million are registered in 94 UNRWA shelters in the south.

I'm just going to emphasise those numbers - 1.9 million people, 85% of the population have been forced to leave their homes in the last two months.

Electricity
Two months and counting without electricity.

Healthcare, including attacks
- On 8 December, Al Amal Hospital and the adjacent headquarters of the Palestine Red Crescent Society's (PRCS), in Khan Younis, and the Yaffa Hospital in Deir Al Balah, were hit and damaged during bombardments, while it is unclear if there have been casualties. The PRCS facilities are currently sheltering about 14,000 IDPs. These two hospitals are among 12 hospitals in the south which are partially operational.

- The European Gaza Hospital, one of the largest in the south, reported critical shortages of drugs, blood products and medical supplies. Fuel to run the hospitals is being strictly rationed. Many patients are being treated on the floor and without anaesthetics. While its normal capacity is 370 patients, it is currently treating about 1,000, and sheltering another 70,000 IDPs .

- For the second consecutive day, Al Awda Hospital in Jabalia is surrounded by Israeli troops and tanks, and fighting is ongoing in its vicinity. On 8 December, a doctor in this facility was reportedly shot and killed. This is one of the two hospitals in the north that has been partially operational and admitting patients. Another two hospitals are providing just dialysis treatment.

- On 7 December, PRCS [Palestine Red Crescent Society] announced that the operations at their ambulance centre in the north of Gaza had come to a halt. The depletion of fuel for vehicles and closure of hospitals operating in the northern region had made it impossible to evacuate wounded people.

Food security
- During the humanitarian pause (24-30 November), WFP conducted a rapid food security assessment across the Strip involving a sample of 399 households. Severe hunger was found in 36 per cent of respondent households and moderate hunger in another 52 per cent. In 91 per cent of the households, respondents reported going to bed hungry, and 63 per cent reported enduring entire days without food. The situation is significantly worse in the north. [my emphasis]

Water and sanitation
- On 8 December, the Coastal Municipalities Water Utility (CMWU) distributed fuel provided by UNRWA to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) facilities in Rafah, enabling them to run generators for seven days.

- On 8 December, the Gaza Municipality reported that sewage was flowing in the streets after all pumping stations had ceased operations due to lack of fuel. The municipality also reported that all but three water wells had also stopped working due to the same reasons.

- In the absence of toilets for the IDPs that have recently arrived in Rafah, open air defecation is widespread, increasing concerns of disease spreading, particularly during rains and related flooding.
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Dec 09, 2023 9:45 pm

Woodchopper wrote:
Sat Dec 09, 2023 11:44 am
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2023 6:21 pm
Woodchopper wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2023 9:06 am


You make a good point.

If we compare the numbers cited by the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) we are looking at 'at least 5300' children killed in Gaza by 1 December. The toll after another week will be higher.

EACL mentions Yemen, and in comparison UNICEF cites 3,774 killed between 2015 and 2022.

For Syria, UNICEF cites 13 000 children killed or injured since the war started about a decade ago. A comon rule of thumb is that about three times more are injured in battle than killed, if so there would also be about 3000 deaths.

For Ukraine, UNICEF cites 'at least 535 children' who have been killed as of August 2023.

From these numbers it looks like the Gaza War is profoundly different in terms of deaths of children. If that is the case there is an obvious reason why.

Normally, civilians and especially children flee the fighting to a place of safety. They cross borders and become refuges or they move within a country and are internally displaced. Children make up a tiny proportion of the deaths in Yemen, Syria or Ukraine because they were removed from the battlefields.

That hasn't been possible in Gaza. As has been stated over and over again, Israel and Egypt have prevented civilians from leaving Gaza, and there have been air strikes in all parts of the territory. No civilians have been able to flee the battlefields. The high death toll among children is a direct consequence.

The UN Secretary General is correct, based upon the available data, the death toll of children in Gaza is unparalleled and unprecedented compared to other ongoing or recent wars. They are being killed at a far more intense level than in other conflicts. The death toll over little more than two months is higher than other wars after years of fighting. This is because the fate of civilians is profoundly different.
This is a problem that's been floating around for a while, though, and that's people who don't have the wits to look at the sources of data using horrifically incomplete data and thinking it means something.

The UN count in Ukraine is simply wrong. That's all there is to it. They counted fewer dead in the first month than came from the three small suburbs of Bucha, Irpin and Borodianka alone. That's partly because of stringent criteria for identifying the dead - that aren't applied to Gaza - and a complete inability to operate in areas cut off by Russia, like Mariupol. Now of course if one actually looks at the data set, one sees that there is a caveat acknowledging that it's an undercount, but that doesn't make it into claims like yours. The Ukraine numbers are in fact so badly off they should be unpublished as they are the source of so many misleading claims.
Of course its easy to verify the number of deaths of children in Ukraine. It took me a few seconds with Google:
The Prosecutor General's office reported on Oct. 2 that 504 Ukrainian children have been officially documented as killed since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion last year.
https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutor- ... 0-injured/

That's very similar to the number cited by UNICEF. The most obvious explanation being that they are both describing the same reality.
Which. Part. Of. There. Has. Been. No. Way. To. Verify. Casualties. From. Occupied. And. Encircled. Areas. So. They. Don't. Show. Up. In. The. Counts. Do. You. Not. Get? That includes the siege of Mariupol, where credible estimates for total civilian deaths are currently around seventy five thousand.
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2023 6:21 pm
I would be very very surprised if the UNICEF numbers for Syria and Yemen do not have similar issues, as the proportion of children is impossibly low given the overall civilian death tolls of those conflicts both run well into the hundreds of thousands. We know that Assad's forces used gas, barrel bombs and artillery to target cities where civilians were trapped and directly targetted civilians, UNICEF's numbers are simply implausible. Other sources, I'd add, give a minimum figure of 25000 children killed in Syria.
Could you link to the original source of that statistic?
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Your point about timing of these casualties stands, but it does demonstrate just how low the UN's numbers are compared to other sources generally regarded as credible, which should come as no surprise as the UN figures acknowledge they are an undercount.

ETA: On the other hand, my point about the use of Article 99 also stands, as it was not used for Tigray, Yemen, Syria, nor even the Rwandan Genocide, being last prior invoked in 1989.
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2023 6:21 pm

I also see you completely ignored Tigray, but then that's a pretty common thing for people to do, sadly.
You are welcome to provide some statistics yourself.
Ghent University estimate 385000 to 600000 total deaths, while estimates for combatant deaths seem to be about 100000. The majority of civilian deaths appear to be due to secondary affects - starvation and disease - and Ethiopa had, as of the most recent census data I've seen (2010) a population where more than 40% of people were under fifteen years old.
EACLucifer wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2023 6:21 pm
As for why there have been strikes in all areas, that's because that's where Hamas is operating and that is where Hamas is firing rockets from. They could cease fire. They broke the last ceasefire, and the pre-October the 7th ceasefire. They could and should agree to a ceasefire and talks, but their leadership simply do not care about civilian casualties among their own population - if they did, they would not fire rockets that kill far more Gazans than they do the Israeli civilians that are their targets.
No debate about the depths that the Hamas leadership have sunk. But the rest of the world is supposed to be better than that.
And is. But the problem is you have to do more than say Hamas are bad and demand the impossible from those they target. There's two possible ways things could go in the absence of Hamas willingness to agree to a meaningful ceasefire, and they are both bad. Either there is military action against Hamas which endangers civilians precisely because of Hamas's violations of IHL, including combatants dressing as civilians, operation of rocket launchers from inhabited areas, military tunnel facilities built adjacent to or even under schools, hospitals and places of worship and prevention - including cases that appear to have involved lethal force - of civilian evacuation. You know - or damn well ought to know - as well as I do that you must not use protected persons or places as a shield, and that using protected persons or places as a shield causes them to lose their protected status.

The alternative is Hamas is left untouched and in power, and that means effectively rewarding them for their IHL violations, and leaving in place a grave threat to Israel that no other nation with the power to act would tolerate. It also guarantees an extension of Gaza's isolation and Hamas's oppression of Gazan civilians and ensures, given Hamas's constitutional commitment to war against Israel and Jews in general and no permanent peace deal, that there will be no peace process while Hamas remain in power in Gaza.

That's the options. Yes, they are both horrible. I'm feeling utterly sick and despondent about this f.cking war because there is no good way out of it, but this is a situation caused by Hamas and you can't just handwave that away.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Fishnut » Tue Dec 12, 2023 5:31 pm

The Lancet has published a study that looks at whether Gaza's Ministry of Health mortality data is inflated.
Using publicly available information,3, 4 we compared the Gaza MoH's mortality reports with a separate source of mortality reporting and found no evidence of inflated rates. We conducted a temporal analysis of cumulative-reported mortality within Gaza for deaths of Gazans as reported by the MoH and reported staff member deaths from the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), from Oct 7 to Nov 10, 2023. These two data sources used independent methods of mortality verification, enabling assessment of reporting consistency.
...
If MoH mortality figures were substantially inflated, the MoH mortality rates would be expected to be higher than the UNRWA mortality rates. Instead, the MoH mortality rates are lower than the rates reported for UNRWA staff (5·3 deaths per 1000 vs 7·8 deaths per 1000, as of Nov 10, 2023). Hypothetically, if MoH mortality data were inflated from, for example, an underlying value of 2–4 deaths per 1000, it would imply that UNRWA staff mortality risk is 2·0–3·9 times higher than that of the public. This scenario is unlikely as many UNRWA staff deaths occurred at home or in areas with high civilian populations, such as in schools or shelters.

Mortality reporting is difficult to conduct in ongoing conflicts. Initial news reports might be imprecise, and subsequent verified reports might undercount deaths that are not recorded by hospitals or morgues, such as persons buried under rubble (appendix pp 1–2). However, difficulties obtaining accurate mortality figures should not be interpreted as intentionally misreported data.
In case that's not clear, the title of their paper is: No evidence of inflated mortality reporting from the Gaza Ministry of Health

As of the latest OCHA flash update (66, 11/12/23)
According to the MoH in Gaza, between 7 October and 11 December afternoon, at least 18,205 Palestinians were killed in Gaza, about 70 per cent of whom are said to be women and children, and about 49,645 were reportedly injured.Many more people are missing, presumably under the rubble, waiting for rescue or recovery.
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Gfamily » Tue Dec 12, 2023 10:11 pm

It may be that although Gaza figures are considered reasonable and not over stated, I think the questioning is whether figures from other conflict areas are not under stated because they are Occupied. And. Encircled. Areas
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by EACLucifer » Sat Dec 16, 2023 3:31 am

Gfamily wrote:
Tue Dec 12, 2023 10:11 pm
It may be that although Gaza figures are considered reasonable and not over stated, I think the questioning is whether figures from other conflict areas are not under stated because they are Occupied. And. Encircled. Areas
Yep.

Meanwhile some good news, as it looks like the Kerem Shalom crossing will be reopening. In previous rounds of conflict Hamas has attacked crossings, so this isn't a trivial move in terms of risks and difficulties. Kerem Shalom has screening facilities that mean aid can potentially be screened and moved faster.

Meanwhile, Hamas use live fire to ensure they control aid, some of which is turning up in their tunnels.

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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Lew Dolby » Sat Dec 16, 2023 12:13 pm

Meanwhile, the IDF has been caught on camera executing wounded and unarmed palestinians. So much so, the authorities have started an investigation. Poss (??) to kick the ball in the long grass.
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by shpalman » Sat Dec 16, 2023 1:39 pm

Lew Dolby wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2023 12:13 pm
Meanwhile, the IDF has been caught on camera executing wounded and unarmed palestinians. So much so, the authorities have started an investigation. Poss (??) to kick the ball in the long grass.
Well the IDF also killed three Israeli hostages who 'had been holding up white flag', obviously mistaking them for unarmed surrendering palestinians.
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Re: Humanitarian crisis in Gaza

Post by Grumble » Sat Dec 16, 2023 1:50 pm

shpalman wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2023 1:39 pm
Lew Dolby wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2023 12:13 pm
Meanwhile, the IDF has been caught on camera executing wounded and unarmed palestinians. So much so, the authorities have started an investigation. Poss (??) to kick the ball in the long grass.
Well the IDF also killed three Israeli hostages who 'had been holding up white flag', obviously mistaking them for unarmed surrendering palestinians.
Getting really hard to think the IDF are following the rules of war
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