Bella, Horrida Bella

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EACLucifer
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Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Dec 04, 2023 3:47 pm

There seem to be a lot of potential flashpoints in the world right now, and it only seems to be getting worse. As well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the worst flare-up of the Arab-Israeli conflict in decades, there's civil wars in Burma, Yemen, Syria and Sudan, and disputes over the status of Tigray and Taiwan and now western Guyana. I can't help but feel that dictators are feeling emboldened right now, and more willing to engage in military adventurism, and that the degree to which western governments have failed to fully support Ukraine and appeased Iran can't be helping.

The latest one to hit the news is Venezuala trying to claim western Guyana, reviving a territorial dispute that was effectively settled at the end of the 19th century. Their motivation is fairly obvious - oil has been discovered in the territory, which comprises all of Guyana west of the Essequibo river and thus a majority of Guyana's territory. A referendum has produced the totally non-suspicious number of 95.00% voting to reject the established border, and Guyana have warned of a military buildup, though I do not know the nature of the build up at present and if it represents a serious invasion threat.

Maduro may also feel emboldened by timid behaviour from the USA, which agreed to relax sanctions in return for increased democracy Venezuala, with Maduro's government very clearly not holding up their end of the deal. The US government, though, is thinking about domestic issues, and it allows them to be harsher with Venezualan refugees if they pretend the country is less oppressive than it is :roll:


ETA: The correct response if the bastards do invade Guyana would be to give them the same response Saddam Hussein got when he behaved likewise towards Kuwait. Will we see the political will to do it, though? It's technically feasible, and unlike Afghanistan or Iraq, there's no issue of nation-building afterwards. At least Venezuala hasn't got nukes to scaremonger about.

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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by noggins » Mon Dec 04, 2023 6:10 pm

Surely the best thing now is to send an expeditionary force to defend the border. Brasil seems keen to assist.

The venezuelan army is run by regime loyalists so will be utterly useless im real combat regardless of what assets they have on paper.

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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Dec 04, 2023 6:40 pm

noggins wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2023 6:10 pm
Surely the best thing now is to send an expeditionary force to defend the border. Brasil seems keen to assist.

The venezuelan army is run by regime loyalists so will be utterly useless im real combat regardless of what assets they have on paper.
This is the sort of job carrier groups were made for. Any NATO carrier group could shut down a Venezualan attack. I think Brazil are mostly keen on making sure any Venezualan attack stays out of Brazil, but they, along with Guyana of course, are people we should be talking about this. We should also be talking to Venezuala in no uncertain terms - none of the taking options off the table in advance that happened with the Russian invasion of Ukraine but make sure they believe there is at least a possibility of intervention if they send forces across the border.

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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by noggins » Mon Dec 04, 2023 6:45 pm

How would a carrier stop a land invasion through jungle?
Send Gurkhas.

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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by EACLucifer » Mon Dec 04, 2023 6:49 pm

noggins wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2023 6:45 pm
How would a carrier stop a land invasion through jungle?
Send Gurkhas.
Airpower's bad for taking and holding ground, but it's very good at denying others the ability to operate on large scale and is politically easier than putting boots on the ground. That said, I'd absolutely be in favour of putting boots on the ground if it prevented another damn war or thwarted an attempted conquest.

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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by lpm » Mon Dec 04, 2023 8:22 pm

There can be no invasion through jungle. This is nothing but posturing.
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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by Martin_B » Tue Dec 05, 2023 12:39 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2023 8:22 pm
There can be no invasion through jungle. This is nothing but posturing.
Singapore wants a word from 1942. Burma and India are standing just behind.
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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Dec 05, 2023 3:34 am

lpm wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2023 8:22 pm
There can be no invasion through jungle. This is nothing but posturing.
No need to go through the jungle. Venezuela has a navy and an airforce. Guyana has pretty much nothing.

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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by IvanV » Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:14 am

Martin_B wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 12:39 am
lpm wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2023 8:22 pm
There can be no invasion through jungle. This is nothing but posturing.
Singapore wants a word from 1942. Burma and India are standing just behind.
The Malay peninsular had roads in 1942, all the way from the Thai border to Singapore. They weren't very good roads, but they were enough. The factor that resulted in a much earlier arrival of Japanese troops in Singapore than expected was that much of the army travelled on bicycles, which facilitated mass troop movements with relatively small numbers of suitable motorised vehicles. Myanmar was more difficult, because of a lack of infrastructure. That is why both sides expended effort constructing transport infrastructure through the jungle. In the Japanese case, this was notoriously done with PoW labour.

The road through NW Myanmar to the Indian border, which was built by the allies in the war, was pretty much disused from the 1960s or so, when Myanmar closed in on itself, and the India/Myanmar border was closed. But it was recently reopened, rebuilt and sufficiently guarded to make travel along it sufficiently safe - for travel in Myanmar's borderlands is often dangerous. And there was briefly substantial traffic along it, before the latest conflicts restarted.

There are no roads in western Guyana, and practically none in the adjacent parts of Venezuela. And I'm talking about an area mostly at least 100km or so across both sides of the border. On the Venezuelan side is the vast wilderness of the Orinoco delta. On the Guyanese side, aside from the deep interior, all of the land west of the Essequibo river is roadless - and most of the country lies west of this river. The exception is where the country approaches the Brazilian border, where there is a road to Brazil and some development west of the river. There is a large salient of Brazil protruding into an area between Venezuela and Guyana, and this area is served by roads and towns, providing border crossings to both neighbours, less than 50km from the 3-country point in the case of Venezuela, rather further away on the other side of the salient in Guyana's case. The few scattered villages, across most of this roadless land area that spans most of the Guyana/Venezuela border are served by boats and light aircraft. There is no road crossing of the border between Guyana and Venezuela, you have to travel via Brazil and those mentioned crossings. But there is a major road through SE Venezuela to Brazil, which runs within about 20km of the Guyana border for a distance of 100km or so, and at one point runs practically right up to the border. It crosses into Brazil at the point I mentioned. It will be noted that the northern end of this road is the Venezuelan town of Ciudad Guayana, a port city on the Orinoco river near the head of the Orinoco delta. These are the usual artificial colonial boundaries, which is why Venezuela can argue that such lands should be united.

But plainly, such rumblings are an attempt at distraction from the difficulties arising from the appalling mismanagement of Venezuela's economy, the impoverishment and departure of large parts of its population, and general heavy-handed repression. Though there has been a bit of relief of late as a little more common sense - just a little - has arrived in economic management. Since 2020, gdp did recover a little, after several years over which it fell by over 70%.

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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:31 am

I very sincerely hope that Venezuala's sabre rattling is just that, but I don't feel safe dismissing things as just rhetoric right now after other recent events turned out to be very much not just rhetoric when it was received wisdom that they were right until they weren't.

Jungle obviously complicates things, but it doesn't make warfare impossible, it just changes it. If Guyana doesn't have good air defence or the ability to maintain combat air patrols in the face of the Venezualan air force - and as far as I'm aware it doesn't - then transport helicopters come into play as they don't care what the terrain is like beneath them, and jungle conditions hinder the movement of defenders as well as attackers. I'm not going to go into the full details of jungle warfare, but it is not an unknown or impossible phenomenon.

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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by lpm » Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:51 am

Martin_B wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 12:39 am
lpm wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2023 8:22 pm
There can be no invasion through jungle. This is nothing but posturing.
Singapore wants a word from 1942. Burma and India are standing just behind.
I don't think you appreciate what South American rainforest is like.

This isn't Burma and Malaysia, with people and roads and even railways. It is completely impassible. There are a handful of indigenous peoples with canoes on the rivers, who have some trails from a village, but even they cannot pass through unexplored mountainous jungle terrain.

A glance at a map will show how silly it is to think in terms of putting in troops to defend a border. Venezuela has no way of getting across its territory to the border, let alone carrying on inside Guyana.

The idea of a navy attack is equally silly. Guyana is literally 1,000 km away from any port in Venezuela. This isn't like France invading Belgium along the coast. There is nothing but deserted beaches next to rainforest, unless they capture Georgetown.

I guess it's hard to us to comprehend a country that is a single town on the coast and a handful of further towns further along the coast, hardly any roads, just a couple of bridges in the whole country, then scattered tracks to sparse interior settlements.

The map shows that the only route Venezuela has to invade Guyana is to first head south and invade Brazil, then swing north east into the claimed Guyana territory. This is a 2,000 km journey.
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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by IvanV » Tue Dec 05, 2023 12:08 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:31 am
Venezuala
Is there a reason for your chosen spelling of Venezuela? If there is some reference, I don't get it.

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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by bob sterman » Tue Dec 05, 2023 12:26 pm

IvanV wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 12:08 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:31 am
Venezuala
Is there a reason for your chosen spelling of Venezuela? If there is some reference, I don't get it.
The Independent seem to spell it like that - or should that be The Independant?

https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/venezuala

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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by IvanV » Tue Dec 05, 2023 12:34 pm

bob sterman wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 12:26 pm
IvanV wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 12:08 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:31 am
Venezuala
Is there a reason for your chosen spelling of Venezuela? If there is some reference, I don't get it.
The Independent seem to spell it like that - or should that be The Independant?

https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/venezuala
As a random misprint, not consistently like Luci.

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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by Gfamily » Tue Dec 05, 2023 12:39 pm

Expect that in a few weeks we'll all know more than we did about the 1966 Geneva Agreement
My avatar was a scientific result that was later found to be 'mistaken' - I rarely claim to be 100% correct
ETA 5/8/20: I've been advised that the result was correct, it was the initial interpretation that needed to be withdrawn
Meta? I'd say so!

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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by IvanV » Tue Dec 05, 2023 12:52 pm

EACLucifer wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2023 3:47 pm
There seem to be a lot of potential flashpoints in the world right now, and it only seems to be getting worse. As well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the worst flare-up of the Arab-Israeli conflict in decades, there's civil wars in Burma, Yemen, Syria and Sudan, and disputes over the status of Tigray and Taiwan and now western Guyana. I can't help but feel that dictators are feeling emboldened right now, and more willing to engage in military adventurism, and that the degree to which western governments have failed to fully support Ukraine and appeased Iran can't be helping.
The Global Peace Initiative has indices to attempt to quantify the extent of conflict in the world. They have two separate indices, one for international and one for internal conflicts. It is not clear how we should combine those.

Clearly the extent of conflict in the world today is much lower than it was before the mid-20th century. And people who have written longer term studies of the phenomenon note large reductions over much longer timescales. But over the last 10 years there has been a notable uptick in international conflicts. The GPI international conflict lies at much its highest level since the analysis in that report which begins in the mid-70s.

Another way to measure it is with conflict battle deaths. I reproduce a graph from Obermeier & Rustad (2023): Conflict trends, a global overview 1946-2022. It superimposes the line for battle deaths on a graph of the GPI indices I mentioned above, or something like it. We see battle deaths are now at almost their highest level since the immediate aftermath of the 2WW.

Of course there are other deaths resulting from conflict, the consequent effects of other kinds of disorder, famine, disease, etc, which are doubtless significant in places like Sudan and Ethiopia.
Conflict deaths and GPI index 1946-2022
Conflict deaths and GPI index 1946-2022
conflict deaths.jpg (131.75 KiB) Viewed 2324 times

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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by Woodchopper » Tue Dec 05, 2023 3:53 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:51 am
Martin_B wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 12:39 am
lpm wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2023 8:22 pm
There can be no invasion through jungle. This is nothing but posturing.
Singapore wants a word from 1942. Burma and India are standing just behind.
I don't think you appreciate what South American rainforest is like.

This isn't Burma and Malaysia, with people and roads and even railways. It is completely impassible. There are a handful of indigenous peoples with canoes on the rivers, who have some trails from a village, but even they cannot pass through unexplored mountainous jungle terrain.

A glance at a map will show how silly it is to think in terms of putting in troops to defend a border. Venezuela has no way of getting across its territory to the border, let alone carrying on inside Guyana.
I agree, there is no point fighting over the jungle.
lpm wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:51 am

The idea of a navy attack is equally silly. Guyana is literally 1,000 km away from any port in Venezuela. This isn't like France invading Belgium along the coast. There is nothing but deserted beaches next to rainforest, unless they capture Georgetown.
Your latter point isn't correct. There are roads, villages, farms and resorts on parts of the coast claimed by Venezuela.

Of course a contested landing 1000km away from port would be very difficult. But given the almost non-existence of any Guyanese armed forces, a Venezuelian landing might just involve troops sailing in and taking over.

Similarly, if they landed at airfields in the interior would there be any troops to stop them?

The key factor would be whether the local population would fight them. I have no knowledge of how motivated they'd be.
lpm wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:51 am

I guess it's hard to us to comprehend a country that is a single town on the coast and a handful of further towns further along the coast, hardly any roads, just a couple of bridges in the whole country, then scattered tracks to sparse interior settlements.

The map shows that the only route Venezuela has to invade Guyana is to first head south and invade Brazil, then swing north east into the claimed Guyana territory. This is a 2,000 km journey.
Not at all. No one travels by road in that part of the world. People travel by boat and by air. So sail into the costal towns and land at the airfields. Capture them and Venezuela has what is needed to take over.

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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by lpm » Tue Dec 05, 2023 6:27 pm

Obviously Venezuela can put 8 soldiers in a helicopter and drop them at a remote settlement. They seize the couple of boats the locals use and put up a flag. Guyana has no way to respond in the short term.

But what then?

Capturing territory is more than being in a territory. It requires the expression of power. What changes actually occur as a result of these soldiers sitting around? How are they supplied? When Guyana gets together a few boats and 100 soldiers and heads up river to the settlement, how can Venezuela react?

An analogy would be the early decades of the Hundred Years War. England invaded France and kept capturing towns and winning battles. But they never exerted any power. Once the army moved on the locals would move back, slaughter small garrisons left behind and rebuild. Some towns switched hands multiple times. Edward III couldn't profit from the territory notionally held. The only actual prize won was Calais, because it's infrastructure that counts not acres. There is near zero infrastructure in these disputed areas of Guyana.
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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by EACLucifer » Tue Dec 05, 2023 9:52 pm

IvanV wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 12:08 pm
EACLucifer wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:31 am
Venezuala
Is there a reason for your chosen spelling of Venezuela? If there is some reference, I don't get it.
I don't know, I'm not very good at spelling. If it's wrong it's a mistake on my part.

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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by Martin_B » Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:53 pm

lpm wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:51 am
I guess it's hard to us to comprehend a country that is a single town on the coast and a handful of further towns further along the coast, hardly any roads, just a couple of bridges in the whole country, then scattered tracks to sparse interior settlements.
Have you seen a map of Western Australia?
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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by dyqik » Wed Dec 06, 2023 12:33 am

Martin_B wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:53 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:51 am
I guess it's hard to us to comprehend a country that is a single town on the coast and a handful of further towns further along the coast, hardly any roads, just a couple of bridges in the whole country, then scattered tracks to sparse interior settlements.
Have you seen a map of Western Australia?
Although Western Australia would be far easier to invade than either Venezuela or Guyana. See Kuwait or Iraq for details.

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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by Martin_B » Wed Dec 06, 2023 4:10 am

dyqik wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 12:33 am
Martin_B wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:53 pm
lpm wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:51 am
I guess it's hard to us to comprehend a country that is a single town on the coast and a handful of further towns further along the coast, hardly any roads, just a couple of bridges in the whole country, then scattered tracks to sparse interior settlements.
Have you seen a map of Western Australia?
Although Western Australia would be far easier to invade than either Venezuela or Guyana. See Kuwait or Iraq for details.
The Australian plans for if the Japanese invaded in WW2 was to pull back to New South Wales and Victoria, extending slightly so that Brisbane and Adelaide would be included. Essentially, WA, NT, most of SA and most of Queensland would be left to fend for themselves, while Australia contracted to ~15% of the territory, whilst abandoning only ~15% of the population. Lots of Australia is a single town on the coast, with a handful of towns further along the coast and sparse interior settlements. We've just got better roads now, but back in the 1940s they were often still dirt tracks.
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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Dec 06, 2023 8:54 am

lpm wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 6:27 pm
Obviously Venezuela can put 8 soldiers in a helicopter and drop them at a remote settlement. They seize the couple of boats the locals use and put up a flag. Guyana has no way to respond in the short term.

But what then?

Capturing territory is more than being in a territory. It requires the expression of power. What changes actually occur as a result of these soldiers sitting around? How are they supplied? When Guyana gets together a few boats and 100 soldiers and heads up river to the settlement, how can Venezuela react?

An analogy would be the early decades of the Hundred Years War. England invaded France and kept capturing towns and winning battles. But they never exerted any power. Once the army moved on the locals would move back, slaughter small garrisons left behind and rebuild. Some towns switched hands multiple times. Edward III couldn't profit from the territory notionally held. The only actual prize won was Calais, because it's infrastructure that counts not acres. There is near zero infrastructure in these disputed areas of Guyana.
I don't claim any expertise on Guyana, but its possible that in Caraccas the leadership contemplates a scenario in which a) the local population shrug their shoulders with the sentiment 'meet the new boss, same as the old boss', b) the national government deploys all the armed forces around the capital city, and c) individual troops have no interest in risking their lives. If the Venezuelan leadership believes that scenario would come to pass in the event of them seizing key ports and airstrips then they might perceive that its worth the risk. Resupply wouldn't be a problem. No need for ammunition etc as there isn't any fighting, and food etc are easy, just buy from the locals. Also easy to take over state institutions. Just walk in and tell the doctors, teachers, mayors etc that that Venezuela is in charge now.

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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by IvanV » Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:00 am

Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 8:54 am
I don't claim any expertise on Guyana, but its possible that in Caraccas the leadership contemplates a scenario in which a) the local population shrug their shoulders with the sentiment 'meet the new boss, same as the old boss'...
30 years ago, oil-rich Venezuela was among the wealthier countries in S America and Guyana about the poorest. The common statement at that time was that Bolivia was the poorest country in South America, "aside from the Guyanas". Back then, (a) might have had some plausibility.

Things are very different today. Venezuela's economy has reduced to below Bolivia's, and oil has given Guyana European levels of income, at least in PPP terms. Though I'm not sure how well distributed it is. (Correction) It's pretty corrupt but not badly corrupt - 85th place on the corruption index - so I suspect it will at typical levels of South American governance like Brazil and Peru, but not at terrible levels. When I have seen nature programmes with people flying in to remote parts of Guyana, the villages there don't look very different from what you'd see in similar areas of Brazil - people living traditional lives in traditional buildings.

The area that Venezuela wishes to annex is mostly very sparsely populated indeed. But the point is the oil, which is what makes Guyana wealthy. All in all, I don't think anyone could realistically think, these days, not even Maduro and his cronies, that the Guyanese, even those remotely up-country, would be anything other than extremely angry to find themselves taken over by Venezuela. I think it is more likely that Maduro might think he knows how to keep such extremely angry people quiet. A lot of them leave, and that is probably kind of convenient to him.

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Re: Bella, Horrida Bella

Post by Woodchopper » Wed Dec 06, 2023 11:00 am

IvanV wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:00 am
Woodchopper wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2023 8:54 am
I don't claim any expertise on Guyana, but its possible that in Caraccas the leadership contemplates a scenario in which a) the local population shrug their shoulders with the sentiment 'meet the new boss, same as the old boss'...
30 years ago, oil-rich Venezuela was among the wealthier countries in S America and Guyana about the poorest. The common statement at that time was that Bolivia was the poorest country in South America, "aside from the Guyanas". Back then, (a) might have had some plausibility.

Things are very different today. Venezuela's economy has reduced to below Bolivia's, and oil has given Guyana European levels of income, at least in PPP terms. Though I'm not sure how well distributed it is. (Correction) It's pretty corrupt but not badly corrupt - 85th place on the corruption index - so I suspect it will at typical levels of South American governance like Brazil and Peru, but not at terrible levels. When I have seen nature programmes with people flying in to remote parts of Guyana, the villages there don't look very different from what you'd see in similar areas of Brazil - people living traditional lives in traditional buildings.

The area that Venezuela wishes to annex is mostly very sparsely populated indeed. But the point is the oil, which is what makes Guyana wealthy. All in all, I don't think anyone could realistically think, these days, not even Maduro and his cronies, that the Guyanese, even those remotely up-country, would be anything other than extremely angry to find themselves taken over by Venezuela. I think it is more likely that Maduro might think he knows how to keep such extremely angry people quiet. A lot of them leave, and that is probably kind of convenient to him.
Yes, he may alternatively assume that any dissent could be crushed.

But there is a history of leaders assuming that they could get away with an invasion. Putin evidently thought that Russian troops would march into Kyiv, Hussein believed that the rest of the world would not save Kuwait, and Galtieri assumed that Britain wouldn't fight in 1982.

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