General Election '24

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Dorkwood
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Re: General Election '24

Post by headshot » Tue Jul 09, 2024 5:38 pm

This could perhaps be explained by Labour voters assuming it was in the bag in safe seats so didn’t bother.

That’s why the vote share discussion is so dumb in a constituency system with FPTP.

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TimW
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Re: General Election '24

Post by TimW » Tue Jul 09, 2024 6:03 pm

Once the Speaker had been re-elected, Farage had his first chance to gob off in the commons today:
Mr Speaker-Elect, thank you very much. We are the new kids on the block. We have no experience in this Parliament whatsoever, even though some of us have tried many times over the years to get here, so we cannot judge you from working in this place, but we can judge you from how the outside world sees you. I mean not just the United Kingdom but the world, because Prime Minister’s question time is global, box office politics. It is pretty clear to everyone that you act with great neutrality and that you have brought tremendous dignity to the role as Speaker, so we absolutely endorse you entirely for this job. That is, I must say, in marked contrast to the little man who was there before you, who besmirched the office so dreadfully in doing his best to overturn the biggest democratic result in the history of the country. We support you fully, Sir.

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TopBadger
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Re: General Election '24

Post by TopBadger » Wed Jul 10, 2024 8:06 am

I suspect the speaker will be calling on Farage to speak as little as possible...
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Stranger Mouse
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Re: General Election '24

Post by Stranger Mouse » Wed Jul 17, 2024 9:19 am

Rishi Sunak warned by senior civil servants a week before he called election that he was at risk of breaching legal responsibilities if he failed to take action over prison overcrowding crisis, leaked document reveals.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/art ... apers-show
I’ve decided I should be on the pardon list if that’s still in the works

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jimbob
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Re: General Election '24

Post by jimbob » Mon Jul 22, 2024 9:31 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2024 9:19 am
Rishi Sunak warned by senior civil servants a week before he called election that he was at risk of breaching legal responsibilities if he failed to take action over prison overcrowding crisis, leaked document reveals.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/art ... apers-show
Also

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... s-of-waste
Reeves to appoint Covid corruption tsar to claw back billions of waste
Chancellor understood to believe £2.6bn of public money lost to fraudsters during pandemic could be recouped
Might cause a bit of unease for several senior Tories
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: General Election '24

Post by IvanV » Tue Jul 23, 2024 11:56 am

Interesting to belatedly read a post mortem of poll predictions that came out in the Economist (July 13). The average of several polls (median prediction) had a Labour lead over the Conservatives of 18%, just before the election, but the election came out at 10%. This is the largest error since 1992. It is well known that polls underpredict the Tories and overpredict Labour, but usually there is some adjustment for this. A large factor is likely to be the poor turnout, at 60% the lowest since 2001, probably with Labour voters not turning out to a greater extent than others.

MRPs did worse than plain voting intention polls at predicting the Labour lead. Though apparently they were quite good at tactical voting, if only they had got the lead right, they would have been better.

The Economist's own model, predicting a majority of 427 vs 411 actual, was one of the best predictions. Though it turns out it had a couple of self-cancelling errors. I recall early on being surprised that The Economist's model was much out of line with most other predictions. But those were mostly MRPs, which did badly.

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Re: General Election '24

Post by dyqik » Tue Jul 23, 2024 1:08 pm

IvanV wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2024 11:56 am
Interesting to belatedly read a post mortem of poll predictions that came out in the Economist (July 13). The average of several polls (median prediction) had a Labour lead over the Conservatives of 18%, just before the election, but the election came out at 10%. This is the largest error since 1992. It is well known that polls underpredict the Tories and overpredict Labour, but usually there is some adjustment for this. A large factor is likely to be the poor turnout, at 60% the lowest since 2001, probably with Labour voters not turning out to a greater extent than others.

MRPs did worse than plain voting intention polls at predicting the Labour lead. Though apparently they were quite good at tactical voting, if only they had got the lead right, they would have been better.

The Economist's own model, predicting a majority of 427 vs 411 actual, was one of the best predictions. Though it turns out it had a couple of self-cancelling errors. I recall early on being surprised that The Economist's model was much out of line with most other predictions. But those were mostly MRPs, which did badly.
How much of that error was overpredicting Reform, vs underpredicting Tories?

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Re: General Election '24

Post by IvanV » Tue Jul 23, 2024 1:16 pm

dyqik wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2024 1:08 pm
IvanV wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2024 11:56 am
Interesting to belatedly read a post mortem of poll predictions that came out in the Economist (July 13). The average of several polls (median prediction) had a Labour lead over the Conservatives of 18%, just before the election, but the election came out at 10%. This is the largest error since 1992. It is well known that polls underpredict the Tories and overpredict Labour, but usually there is some adjustment for this. A large factor is likely to be the poor turnout, at 60% the lowest since 2001, probably with Labour voters not turning out to a greater extent than others.

MRPs did worse than plain voting intention polls at predicting the Labour lead. Though apparently they were quite good at tactical voting, if only they had got the lead right, they would have been better.

The Economist's own model, predicting a majority of 427 vs 411 actual, was one of the best predictions. Though it turns out it had a couple of self-cancelling errors. I recall early on being surprised that The Economist's model was much out of line with most other predictions. But those were mostly MRPs, which did badly.
How much of that error was overpredicting Reform, vs underpredicting Tories?
Unfortunately they just have a rather small printed chart, not a data table. By eye it looks like the under-prediction of the Tories was about 3-4 times the over-prediction of Reform.

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Re: General Election '24

Post by IvanV » Tue Jul 23, 2024 3:48 pm

It seems that one of Reform's MPs is one of those "paper" candidates. So let's say hello to James McMurdock, who is now a bit more than a cardboard cutout, he's the MP for Basildon South and East Thurrock, by 98 votes. The story as it is told, is that after joining the party he received an email asking if anyone wanted to stand, as they were short of candidates.

He wasn't as invisible as some paper candidates. He did actually campaign to some extent. He spent £400 on 20,000 leaflets, which he then had to spend many hours overstamping as it omitted some legally required information. He did actually grow up in Basildon. That adds up to enough to become the Reform MP for Basildon South and East Thurrock.

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Re: General Election '24

Post by Grumble » Tue Jul 23, 2024 7:02 pm

Getting the most votes adds up to enough to be the MP
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three

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Re: General Election '24

Post by El Pollo Diablo » Wed Jul 24, 2024 8:34 am

A small mention to the fact that the Tories in 2024 got fewer votes (6,827,311) than the Lib Dems in 2010 (6,836,248). Comfortably the lowest Tory vote total since 1923. In 1924 they managed 7,424,922 votes despite the electorate being only 21.6m people.

Also a mention to the Labour vote total (9,704,655) - lower than 2017 and 2019 but higher than 1983, 2005, 2010 and 2015. Labour's highest vote total remains the 1951 General Election (which they lost).
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Re: General Election '24

Post by dyqik » Wed Jul 24, 2024 11:11 am

Grumble wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2024 7:02 pm
Getting the most votes adds up to enough to be the MP
Although not getting most of the votes.

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Re: General Election '24

Post by Grumble » Wed Jul 24, 2024 12:17 pm

dyqik wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2024 11:11 am
Grumble wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2024 7:02 pm
Getting the most votes adds up to enough to be the MP
Although not getting most of the votes.
That’s never been necessary, and indeed is exceptionally rare.
where once I used to scintillate
now I sin till ten past three

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Re: General Election '24

Post by dyqik » Wed Jul 24, 2024 12:23 pm

Grumble wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2024 12:17 pm
dyqik wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2024 11:11 am
Grumble wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2024 7:02 pm
Getting the most votes adds up to enough to be the MP
Although not getting most of the votes.
That’s never been necessary, and indeed is exceptionally rare.
Obviously, but three and four way splits letting the far-right in are particularly vexing.

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Re: General Election '24

Post by Martin_B » Thu Jul 25, 2024 12:37 am

dyqik wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2024 12:23 pm
Grumble wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2024 12:17 pm
dyqik wrote:
Wed Jul 24, 2024 11:11 am


Although not getting most of the votes.
That’s never been necessary, and indeed is exceptionally rare.
Obviously, but three and four way splits letting the far-right in are particularly vexing.
The landslide nature of this election seemed to be due to a significant split of the right to the far-right, though. If Farage does end up trying to take over the Tories, I would hope that someone reminds him that Reform is responsible for quite a few of the losses (and Farage's views and dragging the Tories to the right responsible for even more!).
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