General Election '24

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lpm
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Re: General Election '24

Post by lpm » Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:23 am

Sunak is about to emerge, if anyone wants to put the telly on.
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Re: General Election '24

Post by TimW » Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:31 am

IvanV wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:20 am
Despite getting so few seats from so much vote, I don't see Nigel Farage calling for PR. I don't think he's interested in having 100 seats in parliament. He's more interested in taking over or replacing the Tories, when he would then himself benefit from the FPTP advantage enjoyed in much of Britain by a single dominant right wing party, as the Tories have tended to be. His party did "benefit" from the more nearly PR-like voting system for the European Parliament, to get several MEPs. But he didn't seem to know what to do with them, except to fiddle the expenses system to get party funding money. Bit harder to do that in Westminster.
He'll moan on and on and on about how the system's corrupt and unfair to (his) voters.
Then when his situation changes he'll moan on and on and on about something else.

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Re: General Election '24

Post by bob sterman » Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:32 am

Saw Carla Denyer leader of the Green Party on Channel 4 saying that her party wanted to "shift the Overton Window".

Clearly forgetting the first rule of shift the Overton Window club - don't talk about the "Overton Window" (i.e. you can't shift the window by talking to the public using little known terminology from political science).

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Re: General Election '24

Post by lpm » Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:33 am

It's raining... will Sunak have an umbrella... to use an umbrella is to admit he made a mistake last time, to not use an umbrella makes him look silly again...

Another tense moment while we wait for the outcome.
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Re: General Election '24

Post by TopBadger » Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:35 am

IvanV wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:20 am
TopBadger wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:10 am
Farage is great at single issue politics (first Brexit, now Immigration) but I'd bet less than 10% of Reform voters know his position on the NHS (which is to sell it off) and wouldn't want that to happen. Which just shows that a large number of people either aren't really paying attention at all.
Despite getting so few seats from so much vote, I don't see Nigel Farage calling for PR. I don't think he's interested in having 100 seats in parliament. He's more interested in taking over or replacing the Tories, when he would then himself benefit from the FPTP advantage enjoyed in much of Britain by a single dominant right wing party, as the Tories have tended to be.
Absolutely... Above shpalman said:
shpalman wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:48 am
Well thank f.ck for FPTP or else they'd have MPs in parliament in proportion to that vote share and the Conservatives would have to have them in its opposition coalition.
Under PR we'd still have a Labour led coalition, and prior elections may have also generated Labour Led coalitions or at least moderated Tory-ones.

Given that LD policies now put them to the left of Labour, you'd think LD's would govern with Labour preferentially and the 60% that vote center-left would no longer have to endure long stretches of right wing governments.

I'm still thinking PR is better overall.
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Re: General Election '24

Post by TimW » Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:39 am

TopBadger wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:35 am
I'm still thinking PR is better overall.
Of course it is. This is supposed to be a democracy.

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Re: General Election '24

Post by jimbob » Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:40 am

shpalman wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:48 am
Sleaford and North Hykeham held by the Conservatives despite a lot of their votes going across to Reform.
Grumble wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:39 am
Point made on Twitter, Reform vote share only 2% up on UKIP vote in 2015. Not a massive swing.

https://x.com/jneill/status/1809142711519207866
Well thank f.ck for FPTP or else they'd have MPs in parliament in proportion to that vote share and the Conservatives would have to have them in its opposition coalition.
That is why I actually want AV.

You can vote against candidates so the least unpopular person wins
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: General Election '24

Post by TimW » Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:43 am

lpm wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:33 am
It's raining... will Sunak have an umbrella... to use an umbrella is to admit he made a mistake last time, to not use an umbrella makes him look silly again...

Another tense moment while we wait for the outcome.
His wife has a secret umbrella at the ready. She's wearing it.

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Re: General Election '24

Post by bob sterman » Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:44 am

lpm wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:33 am
It's raining... will Sunak have an umbrella... to use an umbrella is to admit he made a mistake last time, to not use an umbrella makes him look silly again...

Another tense moment while we wait for the outcome.
Middle ground. He's got Akshata Murty in the background holding the brolly just in case. The look on her face says "I said you should have taken a brolly last time! Now look what's happened"

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Re: General Election '24

Post by jimbob » Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:44 am

bob sterman wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:32 am
Saw Carla Denyer leader of the Green Party on Channel 4 saying that her party wanted to "shift the Overton Window".

Clearly forgetting the first rule of shift the Overton Window club - don't talk about the "Overton Window" (i.e. you can't shift the window by talking to the public using little known terminology from political science).
All she needed to say was they would shift the debate
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: General Election '24

Post by lpm » Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:48 am

The scriptwriters put in a sudden downpour in that scene. But there was a failure in the special effects department.
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Re: General Election '24

Post by TimW » Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:49 am

jimbob wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:40 am
That is why I actually want AV.

You can vote against candidates so the least unpopular person wins
AV would have been an improvement. That arse Cameron lied about it being unfair.

Maybe AV+ would work OK?

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Re: General Election '24

Post by IvanV » Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:56 am

TimW wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:49 am
jimbob wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:40 am
That is why I actually want AV.

You can vote against candidates so the least unpopular person wins
AV would have been an improvement. That arse Cameron lied about it being unfair.

Maybe AV+ would work OK?
AV, where you list candidates in order of preference in a single constituency, is not PR. It can be even less proportional in its outcome than FPTP. It is what Cameron offered us and we rejected.

AV+ was proposed by the Jenkins Commission in 98, to have single-member constituencies and a top-up list to make it more nearly proportional.

The system we had for MEPs, basically the same as the Irish system, with multi-member constituencies and proportional within it, is a system how to get something a bit more nearly proportional while still having local representatives, albeit in larger areas.

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Re: General Election '24

Post by IvanV » Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:01 am

So Sunak is resigning as leader once a system to chose his successor is in place. No one is surprised, even though, just like Cameron with the referendum, he said he wouldn't.

He listed his "achievements" in his speech. Some were in the false/debatable category. Some were largely outside his control (eg lower inflation). And the rest were things I wouldn't be proud of. I think there was basically nothing really to be proud of that he could claim was his. At least he said he respected Starmer, thought he was a decent guy.

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Re: General Election '24

Post by jimbob » Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:22 am

IvanV wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:01 am
So Sunak is resigning as leader once a system to chose his successor is in place. No one is surprised, even though, just like Cameron with the referendum, he said he wouldn't.

He listed his "achievements" in his speech. Some were in the false/debatable category. Some were largely outside his control (eg lower inflation). And the rest were things I wouldn't be proud of. I think there was basically nothing really to be proud of that he could claim was his. At least he said he respected Starmer, thought he was a decent guy.
After being happy to be in charge of about the dirtiest electoral campaign by a major party since universal suffrage
Have you considered stupidity as an explanation

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Re: General Election '24

Post by jimbob » Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:25 am

Meanwhile Dad's old constituency of Tonbridge had a surprisingly strong showing by the Greens

Con
Tom Tugendhat
20,517
40.8 (-24)


Lab
Lewis Bailey
9,351
18.6 (+3.5)


Green
Anna Cope
7,596
15.1 (+7.2)


Reform
Teresa Hansford
7,548
15 (-)

Lib Dem
John Woollcombe
4,234
8.4 (-3.9)


Kent
Tim Shaw
926
1.8 (-)

Socdem
Ian Grattidge
156
0.3 (-)
Last edited by jimbob on Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: General Election '24

Post by dyqik » Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:26 am

TopBadger wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:35 am
IvanV wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:20 am
TopBadger wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:10 am
Farage is great at single issue politics (first Brexit, now Immigration) but I'd bet less than 10% of Reform voters know his position on the NHS (which is to sell it off) and wouldn't want that to happen. Which just shows that a large number of people either aren't really paying attention at all.
Despite getting so few seats from so much vote, I don't see Nigel Farage calling for PR. I don't think he's interested in having 100 seats in parliament. He's more interested in taking over or replacing the Tories, when he would then himself benefit from the FPTP advantage enjoyed in much of Britain by a single dominant right wing party, as the Tories have tended to be.
Absolutely... Above shpalman said:
shpalman wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:48 am
Well thank f.ck for FPTP or else they'd have MPs in parliament in proportion to that vote share and the Conservatives would have to have them in its opposition coalition.
Under PR we'd still have a Labour led coalition, and prior elections may have also generated Labour Led coalitions or at least moderated Tory-ones.

Given that LD policies now put them to the left of Labour, you'd think LD's would govern with Labour preferentially and the 60% that vote center-left would no longer have to endure long stretches of right wing governments.

I'm still thinking PR is better overall.
Neither vote shares nor party policies and campaigns would be the same under a PR system. You can't completely change the game theory for both parties and the voters, and expect the same vote shares. Media coverage would probably shift substantially as well.

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Re: General Election '24

Post by lpm » Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:30 am

Two seats left:

South Basildon and East Thurrock - full recount this afternoon, three-way marginal REF vs LAB vs CON. Early reports had a REF win.

Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire - recount tomorrow, they can't be arsed today, SNP vs LibDem
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Re: General Election '24

Post by IvanV » Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:01 am

lpm wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:30 am
Two seats left:

South Basildon and East Thurrock - full recount this afternoon, three-way marginal REF vs LAB vs CON. Early reports had a REF win.

Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire - recount tomorrow, they can't be arsed today, SNP vs LibDem
I see in the adjacent seat of Basildon and Billericay, Con won by 20 votes from Labour, and Reform 1,500 behind. That was after 2 recounts and a bundle check. Yet that's all done.

It does seem to be all a bit quicker than previous times. In previous elections, we'd still be waiting for the NI seats as they didn't start the count till 9am or something. And various Scottish seats with polling stations on islands would need to wait for boats to transport them to the count centre.

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Re: General Election '24

Post by Grumble » Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:03 am

IvanV wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:01 am
lpm wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:30 am
Two seats left:

South Basildon and East Thurrock - full recount this afternoon, three-way marginal REF vs LAB vs CON. Early reports had a REF win.

Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire - recount tomorrow, they can't be arsed today, SNP vs LibDem
I see in the adjacent seat of Basildon and Billericay, Con won by 20 votes from Labour, and Reform 1,500 behind. That was after 2 recounts and a bundle check. Yet that's all done.

It does seem to be all a bit quicker than previous times. In previous elections, we'd still be waiting for the NI seats as they didn't start the count till 9am or something. And various Scottish seats with polling stations on islands would need to wait for boats to transport them to the count centre.
Probably just wait for the morning ferry. No-ones in a rush, hey?
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Re: General Election '24

Post by dyqik » Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:04 am

One of the main Scottish seats with that issue won't restart counting until tomorrow.

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Re: General Election '24

Post by Grumble » Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:10 am

dyqik wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:04 am
One of the main Scottish seats with that issue won't restart counting until tomorrow.
Yes, that was in the post I quoted
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Re: General Election '24

Post by lpm » Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:11 am

It's the one with lots of islands. Rùm, Eigg and Lash, those sort of places. The postman probably takes the ballot boxes in his rowing boat.
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Re: General Election '24

Post by bob sterman » Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:15 am

First misstep in 2029 election campaign.

Celebratory crowds in Downing St have been issued with Union flags, Welsh flags and Scottish flags to wave. A key flag missing.

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Re: General Election '24

Post by lpm » Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:34 am

bob sterman wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:15 am
First misstep in 2029 election campaign.

Celebratory crowds in Downing St have been issued with Union flags, Welsh flags and Scottish flags to wave. A key flag missing.
Yes, the red flag with a hammer & sickle bl..dy communist in Number 10 it's a disgrace

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