General Election '24

[snoozeofreason]

There's a big complication in that all but 55 of the constituencies have been changed for the next election. That makes things much harder for the pollsters. Also the voting patterns for the new seats won't be so familiar, so it's going to be more difficult to vote tactically.

It's probably not such a problem for polls such as the YouGov one, which use MRP. The results given for each constituency are not based on polls in that constituency. Instead a large national survey is used to develop a model that predicts voting intentions from demographic data, then that model is applied to the demographics of each individual constituency. Public data from the UK census is available not just for constituencies, but for individual wards, and for neighbourhoods within those wards. That would allow demographics to be calculated for the new constituencies. So the predictions for those new constituencies may well be just as accurate (or inaccurate) as those for the old constituencies.

[dyqik]

How old is Farage? Because on that tale, it'll be 2034 before he has a shot at winning a GE.

Not to mention ten years of generational shift.

[lpm]

He's only about 42, he just looks really old.

Edit. 59.

[nekomatic]

Not sure how much of a factor this will be, but FYI of anyone here it might apply to: the 15-year limit on voting rights for Brits living abroad has just been removed

[Opti]

Thanks for that reminder Neko. We'll get our registration sorted for the last constituency we lived in, Stroud, which is the only constituency we've ever lived in where my vote actually has meaning. We voted in the last election even though we were already sorting our move.

I wonder if it will have an effect on my credit rating as I've got a near-perfect score except for the fact that I'm not registered at my last UK address.

[Woodchopper]

YouGov suggest that only about a third of Reform supporters would vote Tory if they were unable to vote for Reform in their constituency.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/ ... t-election

[jimbob]

YouGov suggest that only about a third of Reform supporters would vote Tory if they were unable to vote for Reform in their constituency.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/ ... t-election

I have seen it pointed out that also a lot of the Tory seats are fairly fragile, with only 40 having a greater than 10% lead over the 2nd place party

[Grumble]

I wonder if my constituency, Hazel Grove, which was always Tory/Lib Dem, may have changed to Tory/Labour because of the boundary changes. Definitely incorporated more working class areas.

[Grumble]

I wonder if my constituency, Hazel Grove, which was always Tory/Lib Dem, may have changed to Tory/Labour because of the boundary changes. Definitely incorporated more working class areas.

Looks like we added a few Labour voters, but the constituency expanded including all the old boundary, so probably not changed that much.

[IvanV]

The Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted.
...
The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... 97-labour/

The curiosity of this is that it was prominent in the Telegraph and funded by a group, apparently, of Tory backers. I've been looking for an explanation of this, and Maximilien Robespierre on youtube (4mins) suggests one. He observes that Lord Frost is prominent in this particular group of Tory backers. So they are a hard right group, anti-green, low tax, small government. MR therefore suggests it looks like the hard right trying to promote a story to the Tory party that the only way to save themselves is veer further to the right. That would get the Reform-leaning voters back. This is consistent with other actions of right-wingers such as Braverman.

[headshot]

I wonder if my constituency, Hazel Grove, which was always Tory/Lib Dem, may have changed to Tory/Labour because of the boundary changes. Definitely incorporated more working class areas.

Looks like we added a few Labour voters, but the constituency expanded including all the old boundary, so probably not changed that much.

The Guardian has a useful tool for this: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng ... p-postcode

[TimW]

It's probably not such a problem for polls such as the YouGov one, which use MRP. The results given for each constituency are not based on polls in that constituency. Instead ...

Sounds slightly promising, but e.g. how do they get Brighton as Green then?

And I'm guessing some other types of polls are just going to be hopeless.

[Brightonian]

It's probably not such a problem for polls such as the YouGov one, which use MRP. The results given for each constituency are not based on polls in that constituency. Instead ...

Sounds slightly promising, but e.g. how do they get Brighton as Green then?

And I'm guessing some other types of polls are just going to be hopeless.

In that particular case of Brighton Pavilion, there's only been a very slight change, according to that Guardian map where they indicate the constituency includes 98.4% of the previous population, with one small area moved into Brighton Kemptown.

(For anyone familiar with Brighton, and who actually cares, it's the Pankhurst Avenue area that's been moved. My guess is people in the streets there mostly vote Labour who are the main rivals of the Greens in Brighton.)

[dyqik]

Not sure how much of a factor this will be, but FYI of anyone here it might apply to: the 15-year limit on voting rights for Brits living abroad has just been removed

That means I can vote after this election. Layla Moran's constituency, so it does matter (went Tory in 2010, back to Lib Dem since).

[Opti]

Shamelessly nicked from a poster (AR) on ISF:

"The Tories latest catch phrase is “Do you want to go back to square one with Labour?”
This is what 'Square One' looked like in 2010 when Labour left office.

l’d take some of that.

Credit rating AAA - Now Aa3
Inflation 1.6% - Now 10.9%
Ave Growth 2.5% - Now.003%
£=$1.58 - Now £=$1.23
NHS waits 2month - Now 2years
Asylum Claims 18k - Now 166k"

[bjn]

More or Less did a thing on NHS A&E waiting times, in 2012 there were something like 6 people (as in half a dozen, single figures) who had waits of over 12 hours, now its in the tens of thousands.

I wonder what changed between now and then?

[El Pollo Diablo]

Shamelessly nicked from a poster (AR) on ISF:

"The Tories latest catch phrase is “Do you want to go back to square one with Labour?”
This is what 'Square One' looked like in 2010 when Labour left office.

l’d take some of that.

Credit rating AAA - Now Aa3
Inflation 1.6% - Now 10.9%
Ave Growth 2.5% - Now.003%
£=$1.58 - Now £=$1.23
NHS waits 2month - Now 2years
Asylum Claims 18k - Now 166k"

I was thinking the same - square one sounds f.cking brilliant. We must be on square -14 at the moment.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Update on the polling situation.

Labour's average position over all polls has improved since December, by about 1-1.5 points to 44.5% support. The Tories have remained roughly static, hovering at around 25%. Lib Dem support is dropping, presumably because of the post office scandal and the Tories seemingly successfully painting that one on Davey - they've gone from 11.3% down to 9.6%. The Greens are marginally less popular and Reform more popular by about 1 point, and are in a position potentially to overtake the Lib Dems in terms of popularity.

In terms of trends since the days of Truss and Sunak taking over, the Tories are still on a losing streak, with support currently forecast to decrease. When compared to previous elections, in 1997 the Tories had started to recover by this point in the parliament from a similar position, rising to the low 30s. There's no sign of that this time. Labour's support is dropping at approximately the standard rate, and in opinion polls are looking a little better than 1992 levels, though when the (eventually known) polling error is taken into account, current support hits 1997 levels, though obviously heaven knows how much shy Toryism there is out there.

As things stand, with trends as they are now, if there's a May election, we're looking at around 43% support for Labour, 25.7% support for the Tories, 11.5% support for the Libs, 6.2% for the Greens, and 8.8% for Reform. That translates into a Labour majority of 208 seats. Stick tactical voting in there (let's say 20% between Labour and Libs) and both get a few more seats. The Tories drop to 123, Reform win nothing.

If the election is November, then support is 41.4% Labour, 24.9% Tory, 12.8% LD, 6.7% Green and 9.9% Reform. That cuts the Labour majority to a measly 178, almost exactly equal to 1997. At that point, tactical voting does more damage to the Tories - only 121 seats. So it may not be in Sunak's best interests to wait. But maybe he likes the power he's not really using.

It is, of course, stupid to predict sh.t like this so early on. But I'm bored and I want to, so there. And what's interesting to me is the Tories aren't going anywhere. They're completely out of ideas - in 1997, they were able to claim fairly enough that they were doing good things for the economy and pull things back a little, but they don't have that any more. They don't have anything.

3Parls2402.png (399.83 KiB) Viewed 1253 times

[El Pollo Diablo]

You also said he might "take over the Tories and become opposition leader and have a proper shot at No 10"? What sequence of events leads to that, remembering that you actually have to be an MP to do those things.

Not entirely clear - just as it wasn't entirely clear how we'd end up Brexiting back in June 2016, and yet Brexit we did. General theme of the idea is as follows:

1. Tories lose the 2024 general election
2. The loudest voices in the Tories are the biggest c.nts, and they demand a swing to the right, they get their wish
3. Probably you end up with a f.cker like Badenoch or Braverman as leader initially
4. Meanwhile, Farage rejoins the Tories as a member, declares his intention to help the Tories become strong again
5. The swing to the right impresses few, Badenoch/Braverman/whoever else struggle to make traction, they are Iain & Duncan Smith v2.0, polling stays in Labour's favour
6. At some point, Farage convinces a constituency or whoever controls these things to let him stand as an MP somewhere for a by-election, there is sufficient backing in the Tories who see him as a potential way out of the mess they're in to let that happen, and whoever is the leader can't see any way to avoid it (or they don't want to)
7. Farage wins a seat, becomes an MP at last, and is welcomed with open arms by many in the Tory party
8. Tories struggle in the 2029 general election, Badenoch/Braverman resigns
9. Farage wins the leadership election

It was bleak when Hereinstein whatsisname was predicting our inevitable Covid deaths and when people here started taking iodine for our imminent nuking by Russia.

This is worse.

Just to reinforce that what I've written isn't completely insane, here's Mr Garage himself.

[headshot]

Apparently Sunak has been informed by the security services that a November election is A Bad Idea, because it's not great to have two of NATO's major powers running elections in the same month. To that end, the feeling is that there will be an October election.

My money's still on May. There will be some sort of scandal, another by-election and he'll call the election to prevent being ousted by his own party.

[TopBadger]

My money's still on May. There will be some sort of scandal, another by-election and he'll call the election to prevent being ousted by his own party.

Surely he wants the pain to end... no one likes or rates him, not even those in his own party, and with the money he's got in the bank he doesn't need this sh.t. Guy needs to put everyone (himself included) out of their misery and call an election.

[headshot]

My money's still on May. There will be some sort of scandal, another by-election and he'll call the election to prevent being ousted by his own party.

Surely he wants the pain to end... no one likes or rates him, not even those in his own party, and with the money he's got in the bank he doesn't need this sh.t. Guy needs to put everyone (himself included) out of their misery and call an election.

I'd just be acting like Scrooge McDuck....who needs that stress when you can just swim in cash?

[El Pollo Diablo]

Nah, he loves the power, and he wants to hang on to it as long as possible. I'd love it to be May, but I don't think it will be.

[dyqik]

It is, of course, stupid to predict sh.t like this so early on. But I'm bored and I want to, so there. And what's interesting to me is the Tories aren't going anywhere. They're completely out of ideas - in 1997, they were able to claim fairly enough that they were doing good things for the economy and pull things back a little, but they don't have that any more. They don't have anything.

3Parls2402.png

There's also the press starting to turn on them as it becomes clearer that they don't have anything to turn things around. In '97, they at least had fairly competent and slightly relatable leadership that could conceivably come up with something. Now it's unending stream of corruption and incompetence stories about the leadership.

[headshot]

Well, well.

Two enormous swings to Labour. Is Sunak toast?

https://x.com/tamcohen/status/1758348800035266901?s=20