General Election '24

[El Pollo Diablo]

Possibly '25, let's see.

I did a graph. It shows opinion polling over the terms of three parliaments. It's a bit confusing, soz. But dots are 87-92, dashes are 92-97, solid lines are this parliament. 92 & 97 GE results are shown too.

I did it because I was interested in the question of whether we're in '92 or '97 territory for the next election. My guess? Somewhere in between.

3Parls.png (653.16 KiB) Viewed 7266 times

Thoughts from me:

• Labour aren't as strong as in 1997, but not as weak as 1992. Note as well that pre-92 opinion polls seemed to dramatically underestimate the shy Tory effect, which is less likely today.
• The Tories, on the other hand, are very firmly in 1997 territory, and it was Liz Truss who put them there. Were it not for her, they might have been in with a fighting chance about now.
• Lib Dems are polling roughly in line with 87-92, but received a jump in polling at this point in that parliament, for which there's no evidence this time. Difficult to see what would shift them upwards.
• Labour will win more Scottish seats at the next election than in 2019, but in the 90s they were very dominant there. Without that stronghold, even if we were in 1997 territory in the rest of GB, they'd have a smaller majority.
• One of the key facets of the 92-97 parliament is the consistency of the support for Labour. Yes, it declined roughly by ten points over about half the parliament, but it started so high that that made no difference. I'd wager we're broadly in the same place now.
• In 1997, the overegging of the Labour pudding in opinion polling was at the expense of the LDs, not the Tories. The Tory polls were accurate. Be interesting to know whether we're in a similar position on that axis now or not.
• The key factor is whether or not the polls are accurate, and in what direction they're inaccurate if not. In 92 they underestimated the Tory vote. In 97 they got that bob on, but underestimated the Lib Dem vote. In both, they overestimated Labour. In more modern times, 2017 saw the Labour vote underestimated, and the Conservative vote about right. 2019 was roughly in the right place - a little much for Labour, a little shy for the Tories, but not far off. We might see similar next time - though the inaccuracy tends to run in the opposite direction next time around.

Barring any sort of political disaster in the next year, and assuming about a year to the next election, we're looking at Labour trending towards about 41%, the Tories towards about 30%, and the Lib Dems towards 12%. That's my prediction for the next election - that would be a Labour majority of about 100, which feels about right in terms of how the country feels about them.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Worth noting, it's four years today since the 2019 general election. In five hours, twenty-eight minutes and minus four years, we all went "...f.ck."

What a stupid f.cking waste of four years of government.

Anyway.

[dyqik]

On the Lib Dems - my impression is that they are mostly strong in different constituencies to Labour - there aren't so many Labour/Lib Dem marginals, but more Con/Lib Dem marginals.

I don't think you can assume uniform gains for them at the moment, while you probably can assume uniform losses for the Tories - being in national government means that everyone knows your flaws. That applies to the Lib Dems in 2015 as well, but I don't think you can assume that their recovery from that is uniform.

Coupled with tactical anti-Tory voting, Lib Dem gains could/should exceed their national polling.

[jimbob]

On the Lib Dems - my impression is that they are mostly strong in different constituencies to Labour - there aren't so many Labour/Lib Dem marginals, but more Con/Lib Dem marginals.

I don't think you can assume uniform gains for them at the moment, while you probably can assume uniform losses for the Tories - being in national government means that everyone knows your flaws. That applies to the Lib Dems in 2015 as well, but I don't think you can assume that their recovery from that is uniform.

Coupled with tactical anti-Tory voting, Lib Dem gains could/should exceed their national polling.

Yes I think many will defect to the Lib Dems in the South East, because they are not scared of a Starmer-led government.

[Woodchopper]

The Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted.

The YouGov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.

Every Red Wall seat won from Labour by Boris Johnson in 2019 will be lost, the poll indicates, and the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, will be one of 11 Cabinet ministers to lose their seats.

The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, more than the 178 Sir John Major lost in 1997.

The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament.

The result would be the biggest collapse in support for a governing party since 1906, with an 11.5 per cent swing to Labour.

It would all but guarantee Sir Keir’s party at least a decade in government, as no party with such a sizeable majority has ever lost the subsequent election.

There is also bad news for the Scottish National Party, which is predicted to lose almost half of its seats to Labour, retaining only 25.

The poll – obtained using the same method that has accurately predicted the results of several recent elections – will add to pressure on Rishi Sunak to pivot to a far more conservative agenda as he faces a crucial vote on his Rwanda policy this week.

[…]

The poll was commissioned by a group of Conservative donors called the Conservative Britain Alliance and carried out by YouGov, working with Lord Frost.

It surveyed 14,000 respondents over the course of the New Year – around seven times as many people as a typical poll.

Such a big sample size enabled YouGov to break down results by the constituencies in which the election will be fought using its Multi-Level Regression and Poststratification (MRP) method, which successfully forecast the 2017 and 2019 UK elections and more recently votes in Australia and Spain.

[…]

the MRP poll predicts which seats will go to which party, giving a forecast of the actual election result.

It also factors in the large number of undecided voters and which way they are most likely to vote, known as electoral tightening.

The results are therefore the most credible forecast of what would actually happen if there was an election tomorrow or early this year, based on current public opinion.

The 169 seats the Conservatives are predicted to win is only four more than the 165 won in 1997. Because they currently have more seats than in 1997, the scale of the losses would be bigger, with 196 fewer seats than Boris Johnson won in 2019.

[…]

Mr Sunak’s party will lose almost every seat in the north of England, more than 70 per cent of their seats in Yorkshire and more than half their seats in the Midlands.

The Conservatives are also predicted to suffer heavy losses, mainly to the Liberal Democrats, in Blue Wall seats in the South of England they have held for decades.

[…]

The results are primarily driven by a collapse in the Conservative vote rather than a surge in Labour’s. In constituencies across England and Wales, the Labour vote is up by an average of just four per cent compared to 2019, whereas the Conservative vote is down by an average of 18 per cent.

Modelling shows that 80 per cent of those who voted for the Conservatives in 2019, but would not do so if an election was held tomorrow, were Leave voters in the 2016 Brexit referendum.

The collapse of the Conservative vote is driven by discontent on policy issues including illegal migration, and the unpopularity of Mr Sunak.

Further details of the poll, published by The Telegraph on Sunday, will show that the Conservatives can still recover – but only if a different approach is pursued.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... 97-labour/

[headshot]

The collapse of the Conservative vote is driven by discontent on policy issues including illegal migration, and the unpopularity of Mr Sunak.

I wonder what it is about Mr Sunak that make him so unpopular amongst these voters?

[lpm]

That he's public school and Oxford?

No, silly me, the stupid end of the electorate loves a rich tw.t to rule over them.

[Imrael]

The collapse of the Conservative vote is driven by discontent on policy issues including illegal migration, and the unpopularity of Mr Sunak.

I wonder what it is about Mr Sunak that make him so unpopular amongst these voters?

I think its basically racism - he's not racist enough by comparison with Braverman and Petti Patel

Bad jokes aside, I actually think its because he tries to present as quietly reasonable and comes over to the Tory base as dithering and weak. I dont see racism as a major factor.

[jimbob]

The collapse of the Conservative vote is driven by discontent on policy issues including illegal migration, and the unpopularity of Mr Sunak.

I wonder what it is about Mr Sunak that make him so unpopular amongst these voters?

I think its basically racism - he's not racist enough by comparison with Braverman and Petti Patel

Bad jokes aside, I actually think its because he tries to present as quietly reasonable and comes over to the Tory base as dithering and weak. I dont see racism as a major factor.

Yes.

Except that he genuinely is dithering. And lacks any backbone

[El Pollo Diablo]

That YouGov analysis does fit with the trends and the (recentish) past. Tories are on 1997 numbers, Labour are on 1992 numbers. What's fascinating to me at the moment is that whilst Labour are slowly declining, as is traditional before an election, the Tories aren't gaining. At this point in 1997, they were starting to trend upwards and gained around 7 points before the election at Labour's expense. Still no sign of that at the moment.

[Woodchopper]

That YouGov analysis does fit with the trends and the (recentish) past. Tories are on 1997 numbers, Labour are on 1992 numbers. What's fascinating to me at the moment is that whilst Labour are slowly declining, as is traditional before an election, the Tories aren't gaining. At this point in 1997, they were starting to trend upwards and gained around 7 points before the election at Labour's expense. Still no sign of that at the moment.

Yes, and it looks like one big difference is that in 1997 the Referendum Party got 2.6% in the election, whereas Reform is currently polling at about 10%.
There is now a much bigger bloc of voters to the right of the Tories.

Labour also needs to avoid complacency. Its not guaranteed that all those who currently say they'll vote for Reform will do in the election (and Farage stood down in [Edited 2019 2017]). If the Faragists were to vote Tory then the result would be much closer.

[IvanV]

The Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted.
...
The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... 97-labour/

Really? People out there are saying they are going to vote for Fantastic Mr Fox, and that will be a major factor in bringing the Tories down?

A few years ago Farage was everywhere, and I could credit he had influence and votes for him would make a difference. But Reform, I barely see them mentioned, except for discreditable scandals. Or is their invisibility to me a function of Internet Only Shows You What You Are Interested In? Or is this some nonsense the Telegraph have cooked up?

[Woodchopper]

The Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted.
...
The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... 97-labour/

Really? People out there are saying they are going to vote for Fantastic Mr Fox, and that will be a major factor in bringing the Tories down?

A few years ago Farage was everywhere, and I could credit he had influence and votes for him would make a difference. But Reform, I barely see them mentioned, except for discreditable scandals. Or is their invisibility to me a function of Internet Only Shows You What You Are Interested In? Or is this some nonsense the Telegraph have cooked up?

Reform are polling at about 10%, similar to the LibDems, and about twice the support of the Greens. Possible that you're not a target demographic for the algorithms.

[lpm]

That Reform polling is soft as butter, it will melt away in the actual election.

[IvanV]

That Reform polling is soft as butter, it will melt away in the actual election.

What's really scary is that the poll makes it look like we have to rely on that Reform voting to ensure the Tories are kicked to the back of beyond. If the 10% of voters who find the Tories insufficiently unpleasant realise that it makes sense to vote Tory to maximise the chance a right-winger is elected, that could potentially make a big difference to the outcome. Maybe what was said about them "not being scared of Starmer" is the point, and why they may fail to vote tactically to keep Labour out. A lot of seats are won on rather less than 50% of the vote, implying a shortfall of rational tactical voting.

I'm still astonished this Reform popularity is so invisible to me. I learn something about modern comms.

[El Pollo Diablo]

That Reform polling is soft as butter, it will melt away in the actual election.

I think it depends. Certainly that's the most likely outcome - the Reform vote is 80% taken from the 2019 Tory vote, and is 90% people over 55, so you'd think that cohort was more likely to vote Standard Evil Party rather than Bigly Evil Party when the chips are down.

That said, Farage is probably playing a new long game here post-Brexit - he may judge that it's better for the Tories to lose this election with Reform's help, and for him to then take over the Tories and become opposition leader and have a proper shot at No 10, than it is for Reform to help the Tories out now, the Tories to only just about fail to win the election, and Reform to continue to be nowhere afterwards. Farage can take over as leader whenever he wants, he just needs to say the word.

[El Pollo Diablo]

That Reform polling is soft as butter, it will melt away in the actual election.

What's really scary is that the poll makes it look like we have to rely on that Reform voting to ensure the Tories are kicked to the back of beyond. If the 10% of voters who find the Tories insufficiently unpleasant realise that it makes sense to vote Tory to maximise the chance a right-winger is elected, that could potentially make a big difference to the outcome. Maybe what was said about them "not being scared of Starmer" is the point, and why they may fail to vote tactically to keep Labour out. A lot of seats are won on rather less than 50% of the vote, implying a shortfall of rational tactical voting.

I'm still astonished this Reform popularity is so invisible to me. I learn something about modern comms.

Don't forget the polls and seat predictors assume universal swing, and this will be an election where that's much less likely to be true - the Lib Dems are likely to poll similarly to 2019, but their vote is likely to be much more efficient this time due to tactical voting. Plus, Scotland makes a big difference - Labour are now neck and neck with the SNP there, and that hugely changes the GB swing Labour needs to win a majority. Can't remember the exact numbers but if Labour wins in Scotland, it only needs something like a 5% swing in the rest of GB to win. If seat numbers don't change from 2019, it'll need a 12% swing in E&W.

But Labour's support is a curiosity - steady but weak, and anything like big tax increases or whatever could ruin it.

[Woodchopper]

That Reform polling is soft as butter, it will melt away in the actual election.

What's really scary is that the poll makes it look like we have to rely on that Reform voting to ensure the Tories are kicked to the back of beyond. If the 10% of voters who find the Tories insufficiently unpleasant realise that it makes sense to vote Tory to maximise the chance a right-winger is elected, that could potentially make a big difference to the outcome. Maybe what was said about them "not being scared of Starmer" is the point, and why they may fail to vote tactically to keep Labour out. A lot of seats are won on rather less than 50% of the vote, implying a shortfall of rational tactical voting.

I'm still astonished this Reform popularity is so invisible to me. I learn something about modern comms.

Don't forget the polls and seat predictors assume universal swing, and this will be an election where that's much less likely to be true - the Lib Dems are likely to poll similarly to 2019, but their vote is likely to be much more efficient this time due to tactical voting. Plus, Scotland makes a big difference - Labour are now neck and neck with the SNP there, and that hugely changes the GB swing Labour needs to win a majority. Can't remember the exact numbers but if Labour wins in Scotland, it only needs something like a 5% swing in the rest of GB to win. If seat numbers don't change from 2019, it'll need a 12% swing in E&W.

As far as I can tell the YouGov survey had a huge sample which enabled them to go beyond a uniform national swing and look at constituency level changes.

But Labour's support is a curiosity - steady but weak, and anything like big tax increases or whatever could ruin it.

We won't find out how strong it is until election day.

Labour's 1997 victory seems like a juggernaut now, but back then we were all nervous beforehand.

[TopBadger]

Farage can take over as leader whenever he wants, he just needs to say the word.

Oh I don't think so... Kemi Badenoch will want at tilt at the leadership and seems to in pole position to do so.

Speaking of whom - I wish Labour would facilitate tactical voting by not standing in strong tory seats like Uttlesford (Badenoch's constituency). Labour have no hope of winning in places like this and their best shot of getting rid of the incumbent Tory is to make it into a Lib Dem vs Tory fight.

Won't happen though.

Just like PR won't happen under Starmer if he wins* because they'll view a big win as a new dawn for socialism rather than the temporary blip socialist governments actually are under FPTP (where Tories have been in power the longest in the last 100 years). The Tories and their backers aren't all that displeased with a system that puts them in power for 2 years for every 1 of their opposition.

*if I later have to eat those words I'll be delighted

[El Pollo Diablo]

Farage can take over as leader whenever he wants, he just needs to say the word.

Oh I don't think so... Kemi Badenoch will want at tilt at the leadership and seems to in pole position to do so.

Apologies if that was unclear, I meant Farage can take over as Reform leader any time - it's set up as a company and Farage has an inalienable right to become leader when he wants to.

[IvanV]

Farage can take over as leader whenever he wants, he just needs to say the word.

Oh I don't think so... Kemi Badenoch will want at tilt at the leadership and seems to in pole position to do so.

Apologies if that was unclear, I meant Farage can take over as Reform leader any time - it's set up as a company and Farage has an inalienable right to become leader when he wants to.

You also said he might "take over the Tories and become opposition leader and have a proper shot at No 10"? What sequence of events leads to that, remembering that you actually have to be an MP to do those things.

[Martin Y]

In 2019 Boris clawed back the gammon vote by out-brexiting the brexit party. He blustered sunlit uplands until he entirely covered the space to the right of the Tories leaving Farage's fan base with no reason to vote anything other than Tory.

Sunak won't do that.

[TimW]

There's a big complication in that all but 55 of the constituencies have been changed for the next election. That makes things much harder for the pollsters. Also the voting patterns for the new seats won't be so familiar, so it's going to be more difficult to vote tactically.

[El Pollo Diablo]

Oh I don't think so... Kemi Badenoch will want at tilt at the leadership and seems to in pole position to do so.

Apologies if that was unclear, I meant Farage can take over as Reform leader any time - it's set up as a company and Farage has an inalienable right to become leader when he wants to.

You also said he might "take over the Tories and become opposition leader and have a proper shot at No 10"? What sequence of events leads to that, remembering that you actually have to be an MP to do those things.

Not entirely clear - just as it wasn't entirely clear how we'd end up Brexiting back in June 2016, and yet Brexit we did. General theme of the idea is as follows:

1. Tories lose the 2024 general election
2. The loudest voices in the Tories are the biggest c.nts, and they demand a swing to the right, they get their wish
3. Probably you end up with a f.cker like Badenoch or Braverman as leader initially
4. Meanwhile, Farage rejoins the Tories as a member, declares his intention to help the Tories become strong again
5. The swing to the right impresses few, Badenoch/Braverman/whoever else struggle to make traction, they are Iain & Duncan Smith v2.0, polling stays in Labour's favour
6. At some point, Farage convinces a constituency or whoever controls these things to let him stand as an MP somewhere for a by-election, there is sufficient backing in the Tories who see him as a potential way out of the mess they're in to let that happen, and whoever is the leader can't see any way to avoid it (or they don't want to)
7. Farage wins a seat, becomes an MP at last, and is welcomed with open arms by many in the Tory party
8. Tories struggle in the 2029 general election, Badenoch/Braverman resigns
9. Farage wins the leadership election

[lpm]

Apologies if that was unclear, I meant Farage can take over as Reform leader any time - it's set up as a company and Farage has an inalienable right to become leader when he wants to.

You also said he might "take over the Tories and become opposition leader and have a proper shot at No 10"? What sequence of events leads to that, remembering that you actually have to be an MP to do those things.

Not entirely clear - just as it wasn't entirely clear how we'd end up Brexiting back in June 2016, and yet Brexit we did. General theme of the idea is as follows:

1. Tories lose the 2024 general election
2. The loudest voices in the Tories are the biggest c.nts, and they demand a swing to the right, they get their wish
3. Probably you end up with a f.cker like Badenoch or Braverman as leader initially
4. Meanwhile, Farage rejoins the Tories as a member, declares his intention to help the Tories become strong again
5. The swing to the right impresses few, Badenoch/Braverman/whoever else struggle to make traction, they are Iain & Duncan Smith v2.0, polling stays in Labour's favour
6. At some point, Farage convinces a constituency or whoever controls these things to let him stand as an MP somewhere for a by-election, there is sufficient backing in the Tories who see him as a potential way out of the mess they're in to let that happen, and whoever is the leader can't see any way to avoid it (or they don't want to)
7. Farage wins a seat, becomes an MP at last, and is welcomed with open arms by many in the Tory party
8. Tories struggle in the 2029 general election, Badenoch/Braverman resigns
9. Farage wins the leadership election

It was bleak when Hereinstein whatsisname was predicting our inevitable Covid deaths and when people here started taking iodine for our imminent nuking by Russia.

This is worse.